中美贸易战背景下美国对外粮食援助政策演变及对中国的影响分析

2017年以来,中国的经济实力越来越强,在国际舞台上的地位越来越重要。然而,美国希望自己在国际经济和贸易中的领导地位能够保持不败之地。因此,两国经贸往来不可避免地会有摩擦。随着中美贸易战的升级,美国的一些贸易政策将直接影响国际经济秩序。期望中国在这场中美贸易战中的对策是维护中国对外贸易关系长期稳定发展、解决世界饥饿问题和促进粮食安全的一条途径。通过分析,粮食援助的重要性日益增加,美国对粮食援助的批评集中在国内农业利益的优先性与紧急人道主义需求的低效率上。     

中国参与WTO贸易援助所面临的问题评析

贸易援助是官方发展援助的重要形式,中国在WTO贸易援助倡议的启动、后续工作及实际参与中起到了积极作用。中国国际经济地位的转变让其他国家产生更高的援助期待。发达国家对发展中国家提供的贸易援助是其应当承担的国际义务。"南南合作"是发展中国家之间的互助合作形式,其本质是基于平等理念的合作,是贸易援助的补充形式。中国在力所能及的条件下应当尽量与发展中国家开展"南南合作"并在此过程中提供适当援助。完善对外援助法律制度是顺利开展贸易援助、实现援助目的的保障。     

Sweetening the Transition in EU Sugar Preferences: The Case of Fiji

The European Union grants preferential market access for sugar to a group of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. Sugar exported under these quotas receives between two and three times the world price. These trade preferences are intended as a form of aid, but they tend to stifle productivity growth in the recipient countries. The European Union could better assist ACP countries by providing direct development assistance in place of sugar subsidies, for example by investing the aid transfers into infrastructure or other essential public services. This paper tests this proposition for the case of Fiji using a computable general‐equilibrium model. It is found that significant gains in economic performance can be achieved by employing such alternative strategies for aid. These gains are particularly strong over the medium to long term when the aid funds are diverted to infrastructure development. However, there are issues of equity to consider since, in the case of Fiji, the rural poor would be the losers if trade preferences were to be removed. Moreover, the degree of benefit in alternative strategies such as infrastructure development will be contingent on the economy's flexibility, which in turn depends upon the country's regulatory regime and education performance.     

Are Trade Preferences more Effective than Aid in Supporting Exports? Evidence from the ‘Everything But Arms’ Preference Scheme

This study examines the effect of the ‘Everything But Arms’ (EBA) trade preferences regime on exports from the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries (ACP) to the European Union (EU). With this aim, an augmented gravity model is estimated for exports from the 79 ACP countries to the EU‐15 for the time period of 1995—2013 using panel data techniques. The results are used to quantify the effect of the eligibility for EBA preferences on the export performance of the ACP least developed countries (LDCs) and to relate it to the impact of official development assistance on exports. In addition to their separate effects, the combined impact of EBA and aid flows is examined. The main results do not provide evidence for an additional positive effect of the EBA agreement on the export performance of the ACP LDCs. However, receiving aid shows a significant and positive effect on exports from EBA‐eligible ACP countries to the EU‐15, supporting an EU development strategy that includes both sorts of assistance, aid and trade preferences.     

技术贸易壁垒下中美纺织品贸易竞争力及影响因素研究

采用国际市场占有率、显性比较优势指数及贸易互补性指数分析了中美两国纺织品在国际市场中的竞争地位及各纺织品类贸易互补性强度,并将美国发布的纺织行业技术通报(TBT)作为技术变量纳入随机前沿引力模型,进一步实证分析中美纺织品贸易的影响因素。结果表明:中国纺织品国际竞争优势强于美国,尤其表现在纺织制成品类;出口角度看,两国在纺织制成品类上呈现显著贸易互补性,进口角度看,两国在纺织原料上具有较强互补性。在影响因素中,技术壁垒、进口国经济、出口国人口及两国距离负向抑制中美纺织品贸易,出口国经济、进口国人口及人均收入之差正向促进中美纺织贸易发展。     

Designing a global compensation system: The logic and a model

Increased emphasis on multinational trade and the growth of foreign subsidiaries of United States based corporations has heightened the need for managers in foreign countries. Development of a comprehensive global compensation system for expatriates, foreign nationals and third country foreign nationals is one of the most important issues facing international human resource management. This article presents a compensation model that examines the internal/external environments that affect the managers' expectations and ultimate satisfaction with their international compensation packages.     

Identity motives in charitable giving: Explanations for charity preferences from a global donor survey

Millions of charities compete for donor dollars, yet why people prefer to give to particular charities remains poorly understood. Informed by the social identity approach, and using mixed methods, we analyzed open-ended responses from a global donor survey (N = 1,849 from 117 countries) to understand why participants see their favorite charity as important, and how identities influence charity preferences. Nine subthemes were generated under two overarching themes: Self and Other. Theme prevalence and charity category were not independent: donors were more likely to explain giving to religious and research charities in relation to the self, but to explain giving to social service, animal, or international charities in relation to the other. We also present an inventory of the identities that consumers use to inform their giving. Together, findings show the importance of identities in charitable giving and demonstrate how consumer motives depend on the cause or beneficiary.     

Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis

While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties. We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to the United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure. We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness.     

《洛美协定》对当前中非经贸合作的启示

近年来,中非经贸合作日益加强。随着非洲地区经济进入快速增长期,美欧等发达国家开始积极调整对非经贸政策以应对中国在非洲经贸关系中地位的迅速提升。在此背景下,中非经贸政策安排将面临欧美国家的挑战。与非洲经贸关系有着制度性整体安排并卓有成效的当属欧盟与以非洲国家为主的非加太地区签署的《洛美协定》,其可以为中非经贸合作提供有益借鉴。本文将深入梳理、分析《洛美协定》产生的历史背景和核心内容,并对当前中非经贸合作安排提出相关建议。     

黑龙江省对俄贸易发展存在的问题及对策研究

目前,黑龙江省在对俄贸易、投资、经济技术合作等方面取得巨大成绩的同时,还存在着一系列急需解决的问题：对俄贸易企业的整体实力不强;进出口商品结构单一;商品货物贸易层次较低;出口产品技术含量低;缺乏本省名牌产品;市场贸易秩序与服务贸易体系不健全等,影响和制约了对俄贸易的进一步发展。促进对俄贸易的发展,必须转变外贸形式,优化贸易产品结构,着力打造本土企业品牌,提高商品技术含量,拓展能源原材料投资合作领域。同时,坚持＂以俄为主、注重日韩、兼顾其他＂的原则,大力开拓国际市场,从而促进黑龙江省对外贸易快速发展。     

欧盟原材料贸易战略述评

欧盟推出原材料贸易战略的背景是,欧盟原材料需求对外依存度高,国际范围内原材料获取竞争加剧,原材料贸易限制措施日益盛行。主要目标是确保欧盟在世界市场可持续地、可预见地获取原材料。实施途径包括:借力双边和多边协定,确立贸易规则;利用争端解决机制,应对贸易限制措施;开展对话协商,与相关利益方建立良好关系,推动形成原材料自由贸易的氛围。欧盟原材料战略体现综合应对的特点。欧盟原材料战略对中国有重大影响,需认真研究。     

The trade with developing countries

The classic view of the theory of foreign trade that unfettered international exchanges of goods enhance the economic welfare of all participating nations is gaining more and more ground in the discussions about development policy. Since past experience has shown capital aid alone to be incapable of lessening the prosperity differential between the North and the South, the “Aid by Trade“ strategy is now of increasing importance. There is however no panacea which would embrace the developing countries more closely in the international goods exchanges.     

The future of the ACP countries

The record to date of trade and development cooperation between the European Union and the ACP countries has been rather disappointing. Evidently, neither the non-reciprocal trade preferences granted to the ACP countries nor the support for development projects have led to much progress in terms of economic and social development. Can the implementation of the EU's present reform proposals be expected to safeguard the future of the Lome system and of the ACP countries in the new millenium?     

世界番茄的贸易格局分析

本文以世界番茄贸易的格局为研究对象,通过对近年番茄贸易的情况进行分析后认为,欧洲和北中美洲是番茄贸易较多发生的地区,西班牙、墨西哥和荷兰是世界三大番茄出口国,美国、德国、法国等西欧和北美国家是主要进口国,不同国家番茄出口价格差异明显;发达国家在番茄出口中占据主导地位,同时欧美国家之间番茄产业内贸易活跃。我国是世界最大的番茄生产国,番茄出口位居世界前列,研究世界番茄进出口贸易格局,分析国际市场的需求和竞争特点,有利于保持和提高我国这一产业在国际市场上的竞争力。     

国外实施技术性贸易壁垒的新动向及我国的应对措施

技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)作为一种无形的非关税壁垒,正日益成为国际贸易中最棘手、最难应付的贸易障碍之一,并正在对我国的出口贸易产生显著的影响。而技术标准作为发达国家实施TBT的重要手段之一,已成为当今国际经济竞争的制高点。技术标准不仅是保护国内市场的标志,而且是争夺国外市场、提高国家竞争力的有力手段,是国家利益和价值观念的载体。近年来,发达国家为了保护自身利益、限制他国发展,纷纷制定和实施标准化战略。本文首先分析了现阶段美国、日本和欧盟的主要技术标准壁垒及其标准化战略的新动向,在此基础上,从宏观和微观两个层面提出了我国应对国外技术标准壁垒的战略措施。     

Sweet and Sour Changes in Trade Regimes

Sugar is an important export for a number of developing countries, especially in the African, Caribbean and Pacific regions. In many of these countries, preferential access to the EU market has been a key factor to develop their sugar sectors. The recent and proposed changes to the international sugar trade regimes, particularly in the EU, are threatening this preferential access. We study the possible implications of such changes on ACP countries’ sugar production and exports by using a spatial price equilibrium model specifically developed for the sugar market. The results suggest that the effects of these changes are likely to vary according to the prevailing level of world sugar market price and according to whether ACP countries are current exporters to the EU.     

The trade with developing countries

The classic view of the theory of foreign trade that unfettered international exchanges of goods enhance the economic welfare of all participating nations is gaining more and more ground in the discussions about development policy. Since past experience has shown capital aid alone to be incapable of lessening the prosperity differential between the North and the South, the “Aid by Trade“ strategy is now of increasing importance. There is however no panacea which would embrace the developing countries more closely in the international goods exchanges.

     

Economic Partnership Agreements Between Sub‐Saharan Africa and the EU: A Development Perspective

This paper draws on Hinkle and Schiff (2003). It analyses the planned Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the EU and Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) from a development perspective. It does not take a position on whether SSA should enter into EPAs with the EU. Rather, it starts from the notion that the process of forming EPAs is unlikely to be reversed and examines the conditions that will maximise SSA's benefits from the EPAs. If this notion is correct, then the analysis presented in the paper applies. On the other hand, Pascal Lamy, the EU Trade Commissioner, made a proposal at the May 2004 G‐90 summit in Dakar that might lead to a change in the EPA process. He proposed that the G‐90, a group consisting of ACP and non‐ACP LDC countries, should not have to make concessions at the WTO Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, i.e., he proposed a ‘free round’ for the G‐90. This proposal opens the door to the possibility that the same might apply to the ACP countries in the EU‐ACP negotiations and that the EPA process might be reversed. The paper considers the key issues raised by the planned EPAs, their relationship to the WTO's Doha Round and the EU's Everything‐but‐Arms Initiative, the changes needed to make the EPAs internally consistent, the domestic reforms in SSA that would need to accompany trade liberalisation in both goods and services, and the potential effects of the EPAs on regional integration in SSA. The EPAs will pose a number of policy challenges for SSA countries, including: restructuring of indirect tax systems, reduction of MFN tariffs, liberalisation of service imports on an MFN basis and related regulatory reforms in the services sector, and liberalisation of trade in both goods and services within the regional trading blocs in SSA. The paper also finds that the EPAs provide an opportunity to accelerate regional and global trade integration in SSA. To realise the potential development benefits of the planned EPAs, two steps are essential. First, the EU must, as it has stated, truly treat the EPAs as instruments of development, subordinating its commercial interests in the agreements to the development needs of SSA. Second, the SSA countries need to implement a number of EPA‐related trade policy reforms. However, the latter is far from certain, given the lack of reform momentum in SSA.     

循环经济——我国外贸可持续发展的路径选择

长期以来,我国对外贸易都是以粗放式发展道路为主:出口产品高耗能且附加值低,而某些进口资源则过度依赖国外市场。粗放式发展道路与循环经济产生了诸多矛盾,面临着很多制约因素,产生了一些负面影响。在世界各国越来越重视循环经济的国际大背景下,要实现我国对外贸易的可持续发展,发展循环经济是一条紧迫而有效的路径。本文在深刻剖析我国传统外贸增长方式与循环经济的种种矛盾以及所面临的外贸环境的基础上,提出了发展循环经济以实现我国外贸可持续发展的战略措施。     

Donors’ Mechanisms for Financing International and National Public Goods: Loans or Grants?

This paper investigates whether three classes of donors – multilateral organisations, regional institutions and bilateral donors – tailor their mix of grants and loans to reflect international benefit spillovers and recipient‐specific benefits, derived from aid‐funded activities in developing and transition countries. To account for recipient benefit shares, donors should use a greater share of grants when supported activities yield a larger portion of international public benefits. A greater reliance on loans is appropriate when a large portion of recipient‐specific benefits are associated with the assistance. By reflecting recipient benefit shares in the grant‐loan mix, donors’ assistance also promotes allocative efficiency. Using the Credit Reporting System (CRS) database from OECD for 1980–2000, our analysis establishes that various donor classes apply different grant‐loan mixtures when supporting the environment, health, knowledge and governance sectors of recipient countries. We employ analysis of variance and other statistical comparisons of the means to investigate differences among donor classes. We demonstrate that bilateral donors do the best job in tailoring their grant‐loan mix to accord with the extent of international public good benefits embodied in the aid‐supported activity. Multilateral organisations’ grant‐loan mix is intermediate of the three types of donors, with some evidence of them relying more on grants to finance activities that possess a larger share of international public good spillovers. Regional institutions, however, do not discriminate their grant‐loan mix by either sectors or the associated public good spillovers. This finding suggests that regional development banks need to adjust their grant‐loan mix to better account for international benefit spillovers if these institutions are to warrant the increased funds to underwrite regional public goods that they have been seeking. If, however, their mix is institutionally set, then the stakeholders must give these institutions greater flexibility to tailor their grants and loans to who benefits from the aid‐supported public goods. This is the first paper to empirically ascertain whether the grant‐loan mix is tied to the inherent publicness of the aid‐funded activities.