印象2019 那些串起我们记忆的会展热词

迎接2019来临的欣喜,仿佛还在昨天,2020却已悄然来临。2019注定是不同寻常的一年,国际环境风起云涌:法国闹罢工,英国谈脱欧,日本换天皇改年号,美国持续“退群”,中美经贸反复磋商……国内全面深化改革持续推进,新修订的《中华人民共和国个人所得税法实施条例》正式实施,粤港澳大湾区规划发布,庆祝中华人民共和国成立70周年大会举行,中共十九届四中全会召开,澳门回归祖国20周年……身为会展人,2019年大家都关注了哪些事情?本期专题我们以热词梳理的方式串起会展人的“印象2019”。     

The Disappearing January/Turn of the Year Effect: Evidence From Stock Index Futures and Cash Markets

This study examines the returns, relative to the S&P 500, on cash indices and futures tracking smaller stocks around the turn of the year. While we control for volatility clustering, return autocorrelation in small stock indices, and other calendar effects, our main focus is the evolution of the turn of the year effect through time: in particular, whether the effect is smaller or takes place earlier subsequent to the introduction of the S&P Midcap and Russell 2000 futures in 1993. We find that evidence of a traditional turn of the year effect, in both cash and futures, is confined to the pre‐1993 period. Post‐1993, there are no abnormal returns during the turn of the year window as a whole. Interestingly, returns in this period remain high on the last trading day of December, but they are negative across the first five trading days of January. In addition, post‐1993, we often observe significant abnormal returns prior to the traditional turn of the year, i.e., in the pre‐Christmas and post‐Christmas windows. Taken together, our results suggest that market participants may be eliminating the turn of the year effect with the aid of two new futures contracts that are well suited to this purpose. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:755–784, 2004     

Raw materials prices remain low

While there has been little change in prices for industrial commodities since last autumn, the price of oil continued its downward trend to the end of the year. Many commodity exporting countries are suffering under the burden of low prices. Will the long-awaited recovery begin this year?     

浅谈房建工程施工质量控制

随着我国经济的飞速发展,建筑工程量逐年加大,为确保房建工程质量,本文在结合现有的研究成果和建设施工具体实践的基础上,对房建工程施工质量的管理控制问题进行初步探讨,并提出了强化质量管理控制的种种措施和方法.     

Export Entry,Export Exit and Productivity in German Manufacturing Industries

This paper contributes to the flourishing literature on exports and productivity by using a unique newly available panel of exporting establishments from the manufacturing sector of Germany from 1995 to 2004 to test three hypotheses motivated by a theoretical model by Hopenhayn (Econometrica 1992): (H1) Firms that stop exporting in year t were in t?1 less productive than firms that continue to export in t. (H2) Firms that start to export in year t are less productive than firms that export both in year t?1 and in year t. (H3) Firms from a cohort of export starters that still export in the last year of the panel were more productive in the start year than firms from the same cohort that stopped exporting in between. While results for West Germany support all three hypotheses, this is only the case for (H1) and (H2) in East Germany.     

China's Macroeconomic Picture in 2008

In general China＇s economic development has basically been good until now. In 2007,China＇s economic growth rate stood at 11.9%,while in the first quarter of this year,this rate maintained 10.6% growth,as national fiscal revenue increased by 35.5% compared with the same period last year. However, more macro control measures for the economy are still ahead.     

New tendencies in direct investment

German direct investment abroad last year showed a bigger increase than in any previous year. There are signs of certain interesting changes getting under way in regard to the aims as well as the structure of German investment activity alongside this growth. A striking feature is the increased interest shown by German firms in the countries of East Asia.     

我国宏观经济形势及流通业发展环境分析

2008年下半年以来,为应对金融危机,我国采取了一系列经济刺激计划并取得明显成效,我国经济不断企稳回升.其中,投资成为经济增长最主要的拉动力量,而消费则是最稳定的一支力量.如果不发生特别大的变化,2010年我国经济增长总体态势和动力格局将好于2009年,有望保持平稳较快增长格局,有利于流通领域的发展和回升,为流通业迎来更好的发展机会.考虑到宏观政策影响因素的复杂性,2010年我国宏观政策存在许多两难的选择,宏观政策回旋余地不大,政策取向短期内不会有重大调整,将继续保持积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,当然也要进行一些适度的调整,如逐步调整刺激经济的总量、结构和力度.在这样的宏观形势下,流通企业必须密切关注全球金融危机的变化与世界主要经济体的走势;关注外需及对外环境的变化;关注微调和局部政策调整对流通业的影响;关注居民收入和社会保障体系的进展;关注消费政策取向的变化;关注消费者价格指数(CPI)趋势和动向的发展变化.要充分发挥销售终端对整个产业结构调整的促进和导向作用;充分发挥品牌的展示作用,推动品牌创新,特别是要为国内品牌提供更多展示和实现的机会,进一步提升和谋求金融模式创新;采用新的营销手段和信息技术,促进流通业发展.     

干毛巾也要拧出水来

“干毛巾也要拧出水来”是韩国民众的一句俗语。多用于在困难时期要励行节约的情形,它与中国的俗语“骨头里也要榨出油来”的意思相似。面对今年造船市场的不景气,韩国造船企业要求将生产成本降到最低限度的口号就是“干毛巾也要拧出水来”。目前．韩国船企都在挖掘潜力,过紧日子,向节俭要效益。     

Heaven Country Embraces 2006 Partenariat

As the improvement of the relationship between China and EU, especially after the establishment of comprehensive strategic partnership, the bilateral cooperation has been developing unceasingly; the trade and communication are more frequent and keep the good momentum. From January to October, 2005, the bilateral trade valued at US$176.2 billion, increasing by 26.2% year on year. It surpassed the trade value of Sino-US and Sino-Japan both in speed and in the increasing extent. Under this background,     

Fracture incidence among elderly people in institutional care: linking injury surveillance data with a postal code-based register of residential and nursing homes

Fracture prevention strategies will be most cost-effective if targeted at groups of frail elderly people who are at particularly high risk of falls and fractures. Elderly people living in residential and nursing homes are one potential target population, but fracture incidence in this setting remains poorly defined in many countries. We have used the All Wales Injury Surveillance System (AWISS) in a population-based study of people aged over 65 living in the city of Cardiff. We linked a postal code-based register of all care homes in the city with injury data from Cardiff’s only Accident and Emergency department. Cardiff has 47,520 residents aged over 65, and 1,874 (3.9%) live in residential or nursing homes. Fracture incidence was 25/1,000/year overall, and 5/1,000/year for hip fracture. During 1997, the care home residents suffered 162 fractures, 82 of which were of the hip; an incidence of 86/1,000/year overall, 44/1,000/year for hip fracture. Even after adjustment for the age and sex profile of the care home population, fracture incidence remained 2.3 times higher and hip fracture incidence 3.6 times higher than in the general elderly population. Such figures support the potential cost-effectiveness of strategies that prevent fractures in care homes, and are of special interest to those planning intervention studies in this setting.     

R&I 400: segments. The 400 by segment

This ranking shows how companies that made the 1994 R&I 400 placed within their segments. The top segment, burgers, showed 7.0% growth over last year. Contractors, while again No. 2, lost 8.4%, the biggest loss of ground among the segments this year. Pizza (which split this year from Italian) still managed to place as the No. 3 segment. For the second year running, recreation increased more than any other segment--up 28.6%. Segment reports detailing trends and company news begin after this ranking on p. 32.     

基于AHP的外贸增长方式转变实证研究——以浙江为例

本文基于AHP方法建立外贸增长方式转变综合评价模型,对浙江省2001-2008年外贸增长方式转变的绩效进行实证分析,结果表明:2001-2008年浙江省的外贸增长方式转变取得了一定的成效,外贸发展基础在逐年优化;但还存在着出口结构不合理、出口产品竞争优势不强、外贸经济效益不佳等问题。据此提出相应的对策建议。     

Weshalb konjunkturprognostiker regelmäßig den wetterbericht studieren sollten

Certainly, economic activity is infl uenced by weather conditions. In short term economic forecast, normal weather fl uctuations over the year are covered by using seasonally adjusted fi gures. However, they are calculated by time series methods and do not take into account specifi c weather conditions such as unusually mild or cold winters. In particular in the fi rst quarter of a year, it is often diffi cult to identify whether short term shifts in economic activity are due to cyclical reasons ore merely refl ect specifi c weather conditions. The paper shows that this uncertainty leads to biased forecast. After mild winters forecasts of GDP and investment in construction tend to be over optimistic whereas they are too pessimistic after atypically cold winters.     

Insight of The New Shipping Structure

Last year, the financial crisis sourced in USA caused shipping ,market to decline. All at once, global economy＇s environment,industrial structure, capital value and supply chain structure changed greatly, marking the beginning of world economic fission. Great fission brings chances of great consolidation. Just one year after the financial crisis broke out, shipping industry participants are standing at the point of consolidation, considering a light, strong, clear strategy for this new shipping and trade industrial trend.     

Textile Industry: Stimulus Plan Laid out as It Suffers

China's commerce ministry has said textile export growth is poised to slow down further this year and indicated that it does not plan to go back to the quota system in textile trade. The growth rate in China's textile exports will continue decreasing this year and there will be no "big increases" in exports to the US and the EU markets although quota restrictions on exports to the two markets have been eliminated from the beginning of this year,the ministry said in a statement on its website.     

外贸人的2021:分水岭出现了

中国迅速控制疫情,产能恢复得早,在出口方面实现逆势增长。李江认为,国内严格的疫情防控为夕卜贸出口创造了机会。2021年年末,每天一大早来到办公室的李江,便忙着开例会、听业务员汇报新进业务情况、盯盘、开发终端客户……李江说,往年12月都是业务淡季,但是2020年自己所在的国际业务部门矿产二部订单却很火热,业绩接近翻倍了。     

Understanding the New Potato Futures Contract and Its Implications for Marketing

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an economic interpretation of the prices for the recently introduced potato futures contract trading on the New York Cotton Exchange, based on a review of economic literature. Potatoes differ from other commodities traded on futures markets, because they are stored from one crop year to the next. Harvest contract prices are expected to be similiar each year when first introduced for trading, but become more variable as specific supply and demand information for that year becomes available. Spreads across crop years will be much less correlated than spreads within a crop year. Inverse carrying charges are not expected within the crop year.     

上市公司审计、财务困境与会计师事务所更迭——基于2000-2003年上市公司数据的实证研究

上市公司会计师事务所的更换越来越引起市场、投资者以及研究者的关注。本文主要基于国外的相关研究和中国股市及上市公司的特征，提出八个研究假设，然后构建Logistic回归模型，依据2000-2003年上市公司年报数据进行假设检验，主要考察非标准审计意见、审计者规模、财务困境和审计迟滞与会计师事务所更迭之间的关系。综合Logistic回归分析结果，基本上可以认为，在同等条件下，上年度及本年度被出具非标准审计意见、由规模小的会计师事务所审计、每股经营现金流为负(处于财务困境中)、上年度和本年度审计迟滞时间长的上市公司更有可能更换会计师事务所。同时，被ST以及公司规模小的上市公司更有可能更换会计师事务所。     

Major Factors influences the 2008 Stock Market

2007 was an unusual year for China＇s stock market, as the index climbed from 2675 points up to 6124 by the end of the year, setting new records again and again through-out 2007.