Introducing the mini-futures contract on Ibex 35: implications for price discovery and volatility transmission

This paper analyzes the effects of the introduction of the mini-futures contract in the Spanish stock index futures market. The objective of the paper is twofold: (a) to analyze the potential destabilizing effect of the mini futures trading activity on the distribution of spot returns, and (b) to test whether the mini futures contract significantly contributes to the price discovery process. A non-parametric approach is used to estimate the density function of spot return conditional to both spot and futures trading volume. Empirical findings using 15-min intraday data reveal that the mini futures trading activity enhances the price discovery function of the derivative market and does not destabilize spot prices. A preliminary version of this paper has been previously published as a working paper of the Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, WP-EC 2004-13. M. Illueca and Juan A. Lafuente acknowledge financial support from Spanish ministry of Science and Technology through grants SEJ-2005-02776, and both SEJ2006-14354 and BEC-2003-03965, respectively.     

AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE HANGOVER EFFECT OF IRREVERSIBILITY ON INVESTMENT

Irreversibility does not only raise the user cost of capital and discourage new investment but also hinders disinvestment because of the hangover effect. This paper derives a theoretical model that separates the impact of conventional convex adjustment costs from the impact of irreversibility, based on which we test the hangover effect of irreversibility by using a panel of Dutch listed firms during 1985–2000. We find that the sample firms cut both the capital stock and the inventory stock facing shocks to sales and cash flow, but they cut the inventory stock by a larger magnitude than they cut the capital stock. Given that fixed investment is more irreversible than inventory investment, the result suggests that the diminished impact of irreversibility provides the firm with more flexibility in responding to uncertainty, which lends support for the hangover effect of irreversibility on investment.     

对中国资本存量K的再估计

许多实证研究都要涉及到对资本存量K的估计 ,但是现有研究中对K的估计值存在较大的差异 ,从而也就影响了后续研究的准确性和可靠性 ,所以很有必要针对估计中国的资本存量K的现有研究进行一下再探讨。本文分别从五个方面详细探讨了测算K时所可能存在的问题 ,并根据自己的方法重新估算了中国的资本存量K的数据。     

A股投资对居民财产性收入贡献不足及其解释

股票已是中国居民主要的财富之一,股票投资也理应成为居民财产性收入的重要来源之一。通过股票投资增加居民财产性收入,有利于居民收入多元化和扩大消费需求,转变经济增长方式。但是,中国股票市场存在低投资回报率、低现金分红比率、高市盈率和偏高的市场风险等现状,弱化了股票投资对居民财产性收入的贡献。实证研究也表明股票投资收益率、现金分红同居民财产性收入、社会零售商品总额相关性不够显著。股票市场投资增值功能缺失、上市公司治理机制不完善、股票投资主体的不成熟和股票市场投资工具单一化是造成股票投资对居民财产性收入贡献不足的主要原因。为了发挥股票市场的投资和分散风险功能,应在扩大股票市场规模的同时,明确股票市场的投资功能和定位,完善股票市场的发行机制,优化投资主体结构,加强发行主体和投资主体的培育建设。     

不确定性下的房地产价格波动与货币政策反应:一个文献综述

本文就货币政策如何应对房地产泡沫的研究文献进行述评。国内外学者在该领域的争论集中表现为间接反应观、事后反应观与直接干预观,已有文献对货币政策框架进行修正以应对房价异常波动,并且学者们就金融监管的作用已经达成理论共识。本文的主要结论是:政策环境中的不确定性是影响政策选择的决定性因素,在不确定性条件下,货币政策应该综合运用直接干预与间接反应方式应对房价泡沫;货币政策与金融审慎监管的协调配合有助于实现经济金融稳定的目标;运用房贷政策调控房价泡沫更具政策效力。目前,国内学者的理论研究基础还十分薄弱,缺乏结合中国经济转型背景下特定制度性因素的现实考察,另外,将研究视角拓展为开放经济条件是值得进一步研究的方向。     

Deregulation,news releases,and price discovery

We hypothesize that the firm’s regulatory environment influences the sensitivity of its equity value to information. Using intraday stock price data of utilities operating in differing regulatory environments we test for systematic differences between the responsiveness of stock prices of utility firms operating in deregulated and regulated environments to a common information set. Our findings reveal sharp differences in responses, with those of utilities operating in deregulated environments the strongest, and the responses of utilities in highly regulated environments the weakest. While the evidence supports our hypothesis, in a broader sense, the evidence suggests that deregulation aids in the process of price discovery. We also find evidence that suggests that deregulation, per se, does not lead to higher stock price volatility.      

The empirical study on price discovery of cornstarch futures market in China

This article aims at exploring the performance of the price discovery function of cornstarch futures market in China. In order to test the stationarity of the cash and futures prices of cornstarch, the augmented Dickey–Fuller test is applied. Both prices are integrated of order one. Then, the Johansen cointegration test is conducted to test the cointegrating relationship between those two prices. Finally, the Granger causality test is performed to observe the direction of causality. The evidence shows that there is a long-run relationship between cash and futures prices and the futures price Granger causes cash price. As a whole, price discovery of cornstarch market in China is present although it is a newly emerged market.     

Ex-post efficient permit markets: a detailed analysis

This paper provides a detailed analysis of ex-post efficient permit markets. After a short review of institutional designs that can achieve ex-post efficiency under uncertainty and asymmetric information, we analyze the effects of an ex-post efficient regulation on the expected costs of the regulated firms, on their investment behavior, and on the incentives for strategic behavior on imperfectly competitive permit markets. Also we inquire about the budget effects of the regulation. Our results show that ex-post efficient permit markets have considerable benefits beside the direct increase in expected social welfare.      

高科技企业研发投入同群效应研究

探讨高科技企业研发投入的同群效应,特别是企业面临的市场环境不确定性,以及体现制度环境的知识产权保护对高科技企业研发投入同群效应的影响。实证分析沪深A股2009—2017年高科技上市公司数据,结果表明：①高科技企业研发投入存在显著的同群效应;②环境不确定性显著负向调节高科技企业研发投入的同群效应,即环境不确定性弱化了企业研发投入的行业趋同;③知识产权保护显著正向调节高科技企业研发投入的同群效应,即知识产权保护强化了企业研发投入的行业趋同。结论丰富了企业研发投入同群效应研究成果,为考察企业所处外部市场与制度环境对企业研发投入同群效应的影响提供了新视角。     

参与、不确定性与投资秩序的生成和演化——解读投资者动机和预期的另一个视角

不同于现有主流理论把投资者的动机和预期理解为投资者实现其效用最大化的计算过程 ,本文认为投资者的动机和预期表明投资者对于投资决策的一种参与 ,并在此基础上提出一个解释框架。这一解释框架把投资者动机和预期所包含的对于投资决策的参与态度及感受定义为参与指数 ,不同的参与指数形成不同的投资者群体 ,而不同投资者群体的互动 ,决定着对投资决策最终发生实际作用的投资秩序的生成与演化 ,不确定性正是刻划了投资秩序生成与演变的主观性和非设计性。     

政策不确定性如何影响企业绩效——一项基于Meta分析的检验

企业发展与宏观政策环境密不可分,关于政策不确定性与企业绩效的关系仍有诸多未解之惑。根据企业绩效的具体内容将其细分为企业经营绩效、创新绩效以及投资绩效,采用Meta分析方法,揭示政策不确定性对企业绩效3个方面的不同影响,并分析二者关系的调节因素。结果发现：政策不确定性能够抑制企业经营绩效和投资绩效,但能够显著提升企业创新绩效。由于存在企业性质、企业规模、市场化程度和政治关联等调节因素差异,导致政策不确定性与企业绩效关系研究存在分歧。结论能够为政策不确定性环境下企业创新发展战略实施提供借鉴,并为地方政府官员更替、公共政策制定等提供参考。     

论项目投资评价中的时间风险值效应及其选择

基于现行现金流折现的项目投资评价的有效性取决于对项目现金流量预测的正确性,而项目现金流量具有预测发生的时间越遥远,现金流量不确定性的程度越大但又趋于相对稳定的特征.从这一特征出发,本文引入时间风险值进行折现调整这种系统可循的方法来解决在投资评价时难以预计的项目现金流量未来的不确定性问题,从而使不确定性条件下的项目投资评价更具有客观性.     

政治晋升激励机制下的地方重复建设——横向与纵向的比较分析

本文从政治晋升激励的角度考察了中国重复建设的内在机制。本文的分析表明,横向政治晋升激励的作用机制和纵向政治晋升激励的作用机制并不相同,由此得到落后地区是否进行重复建设的条件也就不相同。中国宏观经济环境中存在的价格扭曲放大了横向和纵向政治晋升激励的作用。为了降低落后地区进行重复建设的程度,中央政府需要对不同地区地方政府的官员采用不同的政治晋升激励,也需要努力推动自然资源和初级产品的价格体制改革。     

预测与对策:未来中国房地产价格走势分析——以成都市为例

全球金融危机对中国房地产价格影响很大,通过对一系列影响因素的分析,发现这一时期人们的心理预期是所有影响因素中最为敏感的因素,能严重影响中国房地产价格。研究表明,四川省成都市的房地产价格走势与全国房地产价格走势接近,因而能够以该城市的房地产价格作为研究样本,在各种心理预期量化的基础上,预测出未来三年中国房地产价格并提出了相应的政策建议。     

Asymmetric information and uncertainty: The usefulness of logbooks as a regulation measure

In many fisheries managed by quota systems fishermen are required to keep a logbook containing information about catches. No well functioning enforcement system is set up in connection with the logbooks, since the purpose is to assist biologists in making stock assessments. In this paper we consider a case where three market failures (a stock externality problem, a stock uncertainty problem and problems with measuring individual catches) arise simultaneously. It is shown that a stock tax and a tax on voluntary self-reported catches may solve these three problems. By taxing voluntary self-reported catches we make use of logbook information. It is shown using an analytic model that it will be in the interest of risk-averse fishermen to report part of their catch voluntarily even without an enforcement policy. In addition, it is shown that the tax structure can secure optimal expected individual catches, and empirical simulations show that the tax payment is relatively low. Thus, the tax system may be useful in practical fisheries management.     

Challenges of population aging in China

Utilizing the most recent census and survey data as well as the new ProFamy method, this paper presents and analyzes the trends of challenges of population aging and elderly living arrangements in China in the first half of twenty-first century. It discusses the serious challenges and related policy recommendations concerning the old-age insurance program in rural China.     

Do price-earnings ratios explain investment decisions better than Tobin’s q? Evidence from German firm-level data

This article tests the additional information content of price-earnings ratios, with respect to Tobin’s q, in explaining firms’ investment behaviour. While Tobin’s q describes the expected future earnings related to those projected by the book value, the price-earnings ratio compares future growth of earnings based on the projection of current earnings. In other words, a high price-earnings ratio might indicate that investors are willing to rely on future earnings growth, even though current earnings are low. By using an unbalanced panel of about 500 listed firms from Germany over the period 1987–2007, we find that including the price-earnings ratio in the investment equation does not change the explanatory power of Tobin’s q. Most notably, the price-earnings ratio exerts a positive and significant impact on investment. These results are robust to the inclusion of a measure of the firm’s internal funds and of fixed effects and also to the use of different estimators.