Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China＇s Growth？

One of the missing pieces preventing us from understanding recent Chinese economic development is the role played by openness and capital accumulation in this process. The question is whether the sharp economic＇ growth that the Chinese economy has experienced is another case of export-led growth due to the open-door policy or whether, on the contrary, this growth has been caused by high domestic savings and investment rates （and the consequent capital accumulation）. To answer this question, we employed an empirical framework of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that both investment （in physieal capital and R＆D） and exports, as well as the exchange rate policy, are relevant factors in explaining China＇s long-run economic growth over the past 4 decades.     

Exclusive Growth? Rapidly Increasing Top Incomes Amid Low National Growth in South Africa

Despite South Africa’s need for inclusive economic growth, we find that the top income percentiles continue to diverge from the rest of the income distribution. We compare household survey data and tax data (which, unlike household survey data, includes accurate data for the very rich) to investigate the patterns of income growth over the period 2003 to 2018. We find that the gap between the stagnant middle and the top end of the income distribution widened, particularly over the post-recession period. We also show that the divergence was partly driven by high returns to capital for those with top incomes.     

Growth and Common Prosperity in China

This paper introduces a decomposition method that quantifies the contributions to common prosperity of labor market performance and social policies and extends the idea of shared prosperity to a new measure of inequity in opportunities.The resulting common prosperity indices and opportunity equality indices are then applied to five waves of the Chinese Household Income Project data from 1988 to 2018.This paper shows that the labor market performance and social policies have been improving over the last 30 years and have helped China move towards common prosperity for everyone.The indices developed in this paper allow us to quantify the extent of shared prosperity that a country has achieved and to carry out empirical studies on which policy is working and which is not.It can also help us identify the fundamental causes of inequality and aid us in achieving equality in opportunity among all members of society.     

Analysis of the Current Industrial Growth Pattern

The process of economic growth and industrial structure upgrading is essentially a process of the formation and replacement of high growth industries. After steady operations over the past three years, China's industrial growth structure has undergone significant changes, with a number of industries (automobile, machine-building, real estate and tourism) accelerating to become a major force in fueling national economic growth. Whether or not the high growth of these industries will persist so that they become pillar industries in the new round of growth is the key to determining both the nature and the formation of the engine of the new round of growth.     

How Does Social Trust Affect Economic Growth?

This article connects two strands of the literature on social trust by directly estimating the effects of trust on growth through a set of potential transmission mechanisms. It does so by modeling the process using a 3SLS estimator on a sample of 85 countries for which a full data set is available. The results indicate that trust affects schooling and the rule of law directly, thereby raising economic growth rates. The article closes with a short discussion of the relevance of the findings.     

Calm Consideration of Prosperous Growth of Convertible Bond

As a re-financing instrument for listed companies, convertible bond has been greatly promoting the prosperity of China capital market. However, due to the institutional defect of stock ownership is severe, convertible bond has also inevitably caused the negative effect on the situation that the non-negotiable shareholders are frantically depriving the negotiable shareholders of equity when enriching the financial products and releasing the financial risk. Taking ShanYing convertible bond as an example, the article researches the reasonableness in the market pricing by using the Single-Index Model and further analyze reasonable activities of the present listed companies＇ tending to issuing convertible bond.     

Rebalancing Growth in China：A Three-Handed Approach

I. Introduction On 21 July 2005 China began the process of rebalancing its economy. The new exchange rate rule will, over time, reduce the incentive to invest in the export sector. This is the right move for China because there are increasing signs that the economy has proceeded too far?2006 The Authors Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences into manufacturing for export markets, to the point that the country’s capital sto…     

The Relationship of Network Economy and Economic Growth

This paper begins with the characteristics of network economy, theoretically analyzes how networks change economic growth mode, then illustrates how networks promote it thus achieving dynamic equilibrium of national economy consequently.     

China＇s Economic Growth： International Spillovers

China's economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications of China's growth for other countries have been relatively neglected. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. The paper first presents some facts on China's role in the world economy, and then measures the impact of China's growth on growth in the rest of the world in both the short term and the long term. Short‐run estimates based on vector autoregression and error correction models suggest that spillover effects of China's growth have increased in recent decades. Long‐term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.     

Gibrat’s Law with Mild Nonrandom Growth

Gibrat’s Law (GL) has repeatedly failed to gain full empirical confirmation in specific industries. This study offers a deliberately favorable opportunity for full confirmation in the truckload sector of the U.S. trucking industry where firms are highly homogeneous. As such, most nonrandom determinants of growth remain very similar for all firms, so significant differences in growth rates are not expected. Still, there is only incomplete support: (1) long term growth rates are not equal for all firms, but the differences are small and not size-related except for the smallest firms, and (2) the size distributions better approximate lognormal when the smallest firms are excluded, but in no case does the variance rise over time. This suggests that for most other industries, where nonrandom growth should be much stronger, GL would seem unlikely to play more than a minor role in portraying actual firm growth or the evolution of market structure.     

Distribution and Permanent Cyclical Fluctuation of Growth in China

Combing the consumer utility function with technology choice and the firm＇s profit maximization function, this paper establishes a model, then basing on the firm＇s behavior in the capital marketing, the equilibrium can be reached. So the phenomenon of permanent cyclical fluctuation of growth can be presented in this model. The reason, basing on the model, is the inharmonious proportion that is distributed to the labor and investor. The empirical research in China proves the hypothesis. At last, economic policies for escaping from permanent cyclical fluctuation have been put forward.     

The end of the Stability and Growth Pact?

Fiscal policy is the incomplete chapter in the macroeconomic arrangements agreed at Maastricht. The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was an attempt to patch it up, but it failed. We need to understand: why? When the Ecofin Council in November 2003 voted against proceeding with the Excessive Deficit Procedure regarding Germany and France, many observers concluded that the Pact was dead or at least “suspended”. No doubt the decision violated the spirit of the SGP. Yet, it was nothing else but the application of the rules: contrary to the original idea of automaticity of sanctions proposed by the German finance minister Theo Waigel in 1995, the Pact stipulated the need for a vote by the Council and therefore implied the possibility that the Commission might be overruled. The Commission requested Germany to reduce its structural deficit by 0.8% of the GDP, and France by 0.4%. This recommendation was blocked and thereby also the consequence of imposing sanctions if these countries would not comply. What appeared so shocking about the events in 2003 was the fact that the decision to not follow the Excessive Deficit Procedure was taken so early in the Pact’s life and as a consequence of bullying by the two largest member states and without genuine economic reasons. In other words, the procedures of the Pact have never been fully applied. Together with the serious policy divergences over the Iraq war and the failure of agreeing a European constitution, the SGP is the third major issue in less than one year that undermines the political credibility of European integration. I believe that this fact is not just to be blamed on incompetent or unwilling politicians; rather it is intrinsic to the issue of fiscal policy coordination in an incomplete federation. It is a constitutional issue.     

A Result Analysis Oil Workforce Contribution to Economic Growth

In this paper, workforce contribution to economic growth is calculated with the revised C-D function. According to the result of two kinds of compute software, we find that in China, the increase of workforce not only has not benefit to the economic growth, on the contrary, it holds up economic growth. To this strange result, the author has carded on a detailed analysis.     

Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth

China has been keeping high economic growth rate since it carried out managed floating exchange rate regimes in 1994, while now begins to face retrenchment pressure brought by the depression of internal and external economy. The establishment of RMB exchange rate regime should take account of the validity of macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic growth and the regional internationalization of RMB.     

Polluting Non-renewable Resources and Sustainable Growth in a Schumpeterian Model

This paper explores the link between environment and economic growth in an Schumpeterian model of endogenous growth with vertical innovations, in which we introduce non-renewable resources, which cause flow pollution problems. It examines the conditions under which sustainable growth is optimal. We also perform some comparative static exercises to analyze the effects of parameter variations arising from the economic environment on the steady-state growth rate.     

China＇s Export-led Growth Strategy： An International Comparison

A pressing challenge for China is determining where to accommodate millions of migrant workers displaced by the closing of many export-oriented factories. The current global financial crisis＂ has exposed the fragility of the export-led growth strategy China has adopted over the past 30years. Is there a better alternative for providing non-agricultural jobs than the sweatshops of cheap export production？ In the present paper, international experience is reviewed to shed light on China＇s situation. Using pooled regression models, we analyze data from the World Bank for 209 economies. We investigate the experience of other economies to answer the following questions： What is the common process of expanding the nonagricultural economy？ How is that process affected by the level of the real exchange rate？ Is export production a common way of absorbing surplus rural labor？ Finally, what are the ways that domestic demand and service employment can be expanded？     

Rethinking Fast Growth in China＇s Foreign Exchange Reserves

I. Introduction Since 2000, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of 2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 had reached US$286.4bn. By the end of 2003, it had reached US$403.3bn and in 2004 it reached US$609.9bn. In 1999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for 15.6 percent of its GDP. The ratio has been growing continually and was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004 (see Table 1), making China the second…     

Inflation and Economic Growth in China： An Empirical Analysis

Using official provincial data for gross provincial product, consumer price index and other explanatory variables from 1986 to 2006, the present paper investigates the nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth in China. The main finding of the study is that the inflation threshold effect is highly significant and robust in China. Above the 2.50 percent threshold, every 1‐percentage point increase in the inflation rate impedes economic growth by 0.61 percent; below this threshold, every 1‐percentage point increase in the inflation rate stimulates growth by 0.53 percent. This indicates that high inflation harms economic growth, whereas moderate inflation benefits growth. We suggest that China should maintain a moderate inflation rate for long‐run growth.     

China‘s Economic Growth：New Trends and Implications

I. IntroductionSince the "reform and opening up" policy began in 1978, China has sustained high growth. This success is associated with a gradual market-oriented reform. A central feature of this gradual reform is that the dominant state-owned enterprises have not been directly privatized; instead, the government chose to gradually introduce market forces into the economy, and at the same time, gradually reduce restrictions on the development of market-oriented non-state-owned enterprises, especially rural collective enterprises.