Predicting failure risk using financial ratios: Quantile hazard model approach

This study examines the role of financial ratios in predicting companies’ default risk using the quantile hazard model (QHM) approach and compares its results to the discrete hazard model (DHM). We adopt the LASSO method to select essential predictors among the variables mentioned in the literature. We show the preeminence of our proposed QHM through the fact that it presents a different degree of financial ratios’ effect over various quantile levels. While DHM only confirms the aftermaths of “stock return volatilities” and “total liabilities” and the positive effects of “stock price”, “stock excess return”, and “profitability” on businesses, under high quantile levels QHM is able to supplement “cash and short-term investment to total assets”, “market capitalization”, and “current liabilities ratio” into the list of factors that influence a default. More interestingly, “cash and short-term investment to total assets” and “market capitalization” switch signs in high quantile levels, showing their different influence on companies with different risk levels. We also discover evidence for the distinction of default probability among different industrial sectors. Lastly, our proposed QHM empirically demonstrates improved out-of-sample forecasting performance.     

Criteria for classifying forecasting methods

Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a “machine learning” or “statistical” nature has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as exemplified by the M4 competition and the conclusion drawn by the organizers. We argue that this distinction does not stem from fundamental differences in the methods assigned to either class. Instead, this distinction is probably of a tribal nature, which limits the insights into the appropriateness and effectiveness of different forecasting methods. We provide alternative characteristics of forecasting methods which, in our view, allow to draw meaningful conclusions. Further, we discuss areas of forecasting which could benefit most from cross-pollination between the ML and the statistics communities.     

双重买卖中的权利冲突及所有权归属问题探讨

以概念法学的基础理论出发，严采物权变动意思主义。意思主义下双重买卖的成立难以从理论上作出阐释。意思主义下的“不完全物权变动说”与“公信力说”动摇了传统民法的基础理念，逻辑上自相矛盾。形式主义下双重买卖中两个债权合同通常有效，物权合同是否有效，须依法律行为的一般规定进行判断。我国法上的“区分原则”有别于德国法上的“区分原则”，并未表明物权行为的独立性。在所有权归属问题上，意思主义与形式主义都强调了公示的意义，单从结论来看，两者处理是基本一致的。基于理论及现实的考量，我国赋予不动产登记以绝对公信力有可能是有害的。     

Foreign operation methods and switching costs: conceptual issues and possible effects

Although the issue of switching costs does appear in some of the frameworks for choosing modes of foreign operation, the treatment of these costs is fairly cursory. In this article we propose a simple classification of switching costs which distinguishes between “take-down” costs and “set-up” costs. A distinction is also made between measurable and perceptual switching costs. The article outlines the assumptions regarding switching costs that are embedded in current theoretical approaches to the internationalization of firms, and discusses the possible effects of such costs on the choice and timing of foreign operation methods.     

Sociology,history, and the abstract perspective

Our discussion is initiated as a response to the claim that sociologists should become “more historical” in their orientations. The issues are old, but every generation frames its own response. Our response is developed by appeal to intuitive convictions arising out of experience with mathematical models of social phenomena. We make a distinction between historical and sociological processes at a metaphysical level; that is, these two types of processes exemplify different categories of existence. Next we make this point of view concrete by using the idea of a model of social mobility as an example. The discussion then centers on problems related to the search for general laws. We frame a “fallacy of misplaced generality” and against this background discuss how the idea of scope conditions, used in conjunction with formal models, leads to a method for coping with the difficulties inherent in the effort to frame general sociological theories.     

Career development and participation at work: Time for mating?

Both career development and participation at work activities have emphasized a “prospecting” approach to inquiry. Although jointly inspired by the humanistic ethic, the two ventures have grown as separate streams of inquiry through their distinct responses to economic, hierarchical, technological, reductionist, and systems imperatives about work. A contrasting “mating” approach to inquiry is proposed, with the various imperatives becoming redefined as shared objects for further study. The proposal is supported by a set of diagnostic questions, and illustrated by a comparison between separate “Knowledge for Pay” and “Pay for Knowledge” human resource management initiatives. The possibility of broader application of the mating principle to other human resource management efforts is briefly considered.     

Bourgeoisie Out, Expertoisie In: The New Political Economies at Loggerheads

Part I of our paper pinpoints the “political” in the new political economies: first, the distinction between political, public, and civic economies that are almost invariably confused; second, the role of power politics, force, and fraud in determining income differentials in the name of market forces. Part II pinpoints the “new” in twentieth‐century political economies: first, the emergence of a fourth factor of production in addition to labor, capital, and land, whether identified with organization, knowledge, headwork, education, brainpower, management, or information; second, the subordination of capital to this new factor; third, the formation of a new social class based on its ownership; fourth, the struggle between the owners of capital and the new class for control over decision making and for the lion's share in distribution; fifth, the reliance on government to protect and advance the interests of the new class of professionals; and sixth, the eclipse of the old class struggle between bourgeoisie and proletarians by a new class struggle between managers and managed, executives and executants, “knows” and “know‐nots.” Part III pinpoints the “loggerheads” or sources of dissension between the “human capital” and post‐capitalist variants of the new political economies: first, over whether the expertoisie constitute a new social class or a fraction of the bourgeoisie; second, over whether the new economic order constitutes an advanced stage of capitalism or the advent of a post‐capitalist society; and third, whether the “knows” exploit the “know‐nots” through their monopoly of economic and political power. Why “political,” why “new,” and why “at loggerheads”? Our essay divides into three parts our tentative answers to these questions.     

Forecasting data vintages

This article provides a discussion of Clements and Galvão’s paper “Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation.” Clements and Galvão argue that a multiple-vintage VAR model can be useful for forecasting data that are subject to revisions. They draw a “distinction between forecasting future observations and revisions to past data,” which focuses forecasters’ attention on yet another real time data issue. This comment discusses the importance of taking data revisions into consideration, and compares the multiple-vintage VAR approach of Clements and Galvão to a state space approach.     

The Self‐Help Myth: Towards a Theory of Philanthropy as Consensus Broker

This article presents a theoretical and methodological approach to studying how philanthropic power is maintained through the process of negotiating consensus between greatly unequal partners such as wealthy funders and social movement leaders. It is proposed that grant agreements between private foundations and social movement organizations construct idealized spaces of public participation and discursive theories of change that draw attention away from structural inequality and antagonism, ultimately generating consent. Drawing upon archival and ethnographic research on philanthropic investments in addressing migrant poverty in California's Central Valley, the article shows how consensus between foundation staff and farmworker and immigrant organizers promote funding frameworks that exclude questions that challenge relationships of power and systems of agricultural production that contribute to enduring poverty across the region. The Gramscian conceptual frames of “discursive power,” “hegemony as politics,” and “strategic articulation” are presented as a theoretical framework from which to understand the power of private philanthropy as consensus broker during historical moments of crisis.     

The conditional probability and the linear flow graph approaches to analyzing probabilistic causal systems

An alternative theoretical approach to the analysis for dichotomous causal systems that involve probabilistic causation, the conditional probability approach, has recently been explicated. It was shown that there exist various composition and decomposition rules for analyzing various kinds of general causal systems, and an important distinction between pure-“or”-and pure-“and”-causal systems was explicated. In this paper these earlier results are used to analyze a causal system which has been studied by J.A. Davis (1976), who uses his linear flow graph approach to analysis. The results of the conditional probability approach are compared to the linear flow graph, and it is shown that the two approaches lead to strikingly different results.     

Independent and dependent contracting: Meaning and implications

In the context of the changing nature of work and the continuing growth of contingent employment contracts, this article examines the consequences associated with various forms of individually-negotiated, fixed-term contracts. This article first draws a distinction between what can be labeled as independent contracting arrangements, where the workers are autonomous and mobile, and other situations where contractors are more “dependent” on their clients. This investigation then provides an overview of the consequences associated with the employment of “independent” and “dependent” contractors. Based on a review of the existing research literature, the article examines the prescribed and realized benefits of individual contracting from the perspectives of the organization, the permanent employees, and the contractors themselves. Finally, the article concludes with some suggestions for human resource management (HRM) practice as well as areas in need of future research attention.     

Does Direct Democracy Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from the 2004 General Election

Abstract . This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the “rational voter model” so as to include the potential effects of “direct democracy” on the voter participation rate. Direct democracy is assumed to take two forms: initiatives and popular referenda. This study tests the hypothesis that direct democracy may not on balance significantly affect voter turnout because, although it may elevate the expected gross benefits of voting by “empowering voters,” the transactions/information costs correlative with direct democracy raise the costs of voting. Using cross‐section analysis for the 50 states for the 2004 general election, this study finds that the existence of initiatives and/or referenda does not significantly influence voter turnout.     

The double effects of female executives' participation on corporate sustainable competitive advantage through unethical environmental behavior and proactive environmental strategy

Based on the upper echelons theory, ecofeminist theory, and natural resource‐based theory (NRBV), this study has constructed a relational model between female executives' participation, unethical environmental behavior, proactive environmental strategy, and corporate sustainable competitive advantage. The samples include a total of 496 female executives from listed 524 companies in the manufacturing sector in China, and multiple regression methods are used for the analysis. The study showed that female executives' participation had double positive effects on corporate sustainable competitive advantage, which included both the inhibiting effect on unethical environmental behavior and the stimulating effect on proactive environmental strategies. The study also explored the boundary conditions of “conservative” and “proactive” behaviors from the internal and external perspectives of enterprises. But it was shown that the effect would not be further improved when both moderation effects of environmental stakeholder pressure and environmental leadership were higher at the same time. As enterprises' behaviors should match with their capability range, radical behaviors might run counter to their desires.     

Strategies affecting Twitter-based networking pattern of South Korean politicians: social network analysis and exponential random graph model

This paper examines the Twitter networking pattern of “following” and “mention” relationships between South Korean politicians. The data were obtained from the Twitter profiles of Korea’s national assemblymen and the most influential political figures. We conducted social network techniques including exponential random graph model and a regression method. The results suggest that these politicians employ two different strategies to establish relationships with other politicians on Twitter. One is “following” other politicians as a social ritual based on dyadic reciprocity, and the other is to “mention” other politicians as asymmetric political support based on the public popularity of their peers on Twitter.     

浅谈如何在物流教学中提高学生的课堂参与度

学生是课堂教学的主体。只有学生积极地投身于课堂,才能到达课堂教学有效性的目的。文中主要探讨了在物流教学中,如何提高学生的课堂参与度,调动其学习的主动性。教师可以通过层层设疑,促进学生“多思”;给予空间,促进学生“多说”;加强实践,促进学生“多做”,让学生在动脑、动口、动手的过程中完成课堂的学习。     

Democracy and trade: an empirical study

The theoretical discussion on globalization has suggested that there are linkages between democracy and trade, although the direction of influence is less certain. Formal empirical studies remain scarce, and have often focused on the question of whether democratic regimes influence trade policy, as opposed to the actual relationship between democracy and trade. This paper seeks to answer the question, “Do democracies trade more?” by applying the gravity equation to a large dataset of bilateral trade data for the period 1948–1999, while taking into account the role of democracy. It finds that democracy is positively related to trade flows, but only after controlling for trade pair heterogeneity. In addition, it makes the case for studies of this nature to draw a distinction between trade flows in the pre- and post-1990s period of rapid democratization as well as between developed and developing countries.     

Is There Any Ethical and Moral Consideration in the Theory and Practice of Global Business Social Darwinism?

Abstract

This article has revisited the interchangeable meanings of morality and ethics in today's global business practices. This article argues that in the theory and practice of the global business Social Darwinism, there is no room for ethics and morality because the competitive international business ideology promotes the “survival of the fittest.” Furthermore, the purpose of this article is to first define the distinction between morality and ethics and their application in the real world of today's business; second, to analyze the ideological foundation of the international business practices of Social Darwinism in relation to global production, consumption, profitability, and efficacy.     

Accounting for Employee Stock Options: What Can We Learn from the Market's Perceptions?

The scope of this is paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the value relevance of employee stock options (ESOs) in Europe. We show, empirically, that the market participants when pricing a firm's equity place approximately the same valuation weights on the ESO‐deferred compensation expense (the so called “ESO asset”) and the compensation option liability (the so called “ESO liability”). Our empirical findings support the theoretical work of Ohlson and Penman who suggest that the deferred compensation expense be treated as a contra‐liability. The second contribution of our work rests on the nature of the ESO expense. We show that the distinction between persistent and non‐persistent ESO expenses is of critical importance for the market participants. Accordingly, an improved accounting disclosure should assist the investors in assessing the long‐term goals of the ESO plans at the firm level.