Machine tools and mass production in the armaments boom: Germany and the United States, 1929–44

This article anatomizes the ‘productivity race’ between Nazi Germany and the US over the period from the Great Depression to the Second World War in the metalworking industry. We present novel data that allow us to account for both the quantity of installed machine tools and their technological type. Hitherto, comparison of productive technologies has been limited to case studies and well‐worn narratives about US mass production and European‐style flexible specialization. Our data show that the two countries in fact employed similar types of machines combined in different ratios. Furthermore, neither country was locked in a rigid technological paradigm. By 1945 Germany had converged on the US both in terms of capital‐intensity and the specific technologies employed. Capital investment made a greater contribution to output growth in Germany, whereas US growth was capital‐saving. Total factor productivity growth made a substantial contribution to the armaments boom in both countries. But it was US industry, spared the war's most disruptive effects, that was in a position to take fullest advantage of the opportunities for wartime productivity growth. This adds a new element to familiar explanations for Germany's rapid catch‐up after 1945.     

Technology adoption and multiple growth paths: An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis of the catch-up process in Thailand

As opposed to the Veblen—Gerschenkron catching-up hypothesis, the recent literature allows for technological divergence in backward economies. We extend a nonlinear adoption function to include openness and interact with capital accumulation in an intertemporal general equilibrium framework. The threshold gap necessary to catch up is endogenously determined by the economy's absorptive capacity. The model generates multiple transition growth paths depending on whether technological catch-up is achieved, and due to the endogeneity of the threshold gap, endogenous switching between development paths might be observed. Our simulations of the Thailand experience show how lack of investment in education and protectionism generate loss of transition growth and technological divergence. The paper highlights the role of absorptive capacity, and especially its importance for economies on the balance between low growth and high growth paths. JEL no. O41, O53     

Rise of China and India in International Trade： From Textiles to New Technology

China and India are two demographic giants that have become big developing economic powers. They have maintained their specialization in textiles and developed outward-oriented sectors linked to new technologies, taking advantage of offshoring and outsourcing. Their increasing contribution to international trade is changing the world supply and demand of manufactured goods, primary goods and services. They are new leaders in the international division of labor, but beyond technological catch-up, their challenge is quality upgrading. Both countries are increasingly contributing to global economic growth, but they cannot yet trigger the growth of the rest of the world by themselves.     

Innovations, technological specialisation and economic growth in the EU

The paper analyses the effects of innovations, technological specialisation and technology diffusion on economic growth and convergence of the EU countries from 1969 to 1998. The empirical analysis is based on a panel data model, which enables us to assess the impacts of these three factors as well as of the usual production factors on long-term economic growth, and to calculate their partial contributions to - and -convergence of labour productivities within the EU. The results show that besides capital accumulation, transferable technical knowledge is a driving force of growth for catching-up EU countries, while it is the level of Ricardian technological specialisation for advanced EU countries.A previous version of the paper was prepared while the author was a Visiting Fellow at the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, EU Commission. I gratefully acknowledge the stimulating research atmosphere at DG ECFIN and would like to thank Werner Röger and Klaus Wälde for helpful comments. Furthermore, I would like to thank Jürgen Wolters, FU Berlin, for further helpful comments at the workshop for the special issue of this journal in Brussels, February 6–8, 2004.     

Obstacles to ‘Catch-Up’: The Case of the Indonesian Aircraft Industry

This paper examines the development of the Indonesian aircraft industry. Despite the accumulation of considerable engineering and production capabilities, technical competence has not been a sufficient condition for commercial success. An important reason for the asymmetry between technical accomplishment and performance is underdeveloped managerial capacity. This case raises questions about the viability of policies intended to promote technological ‘catch up’ in complex industries.     

我国农业机械化演进轨迹与或然走向

基于诱致性技术变迁的视角,运用1990～2009年时间序列数据分析农村居民的工资性收入对农户采用农业机械决策的影响。结果表明,工资性收入对农户采用农业机械的决策具有显著效应,工资性收入增加,农业机械采用水平也会增加。20世纪90年代以来我国农业机械使用水平的大幅上升主要是因为农业劳动力相对稀缺导致的,因此要改变优先发展农业生物化学技术的观点,而应注重农业机械技术与生物化学技术并重发展。     

区域经济创新扩散强度与效应研究——以京津冀和长三角地区为例

科技中心城市对周边腹地的技术创新扩散强度和效应对区域技术进步具有举足轻重的作用。运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数测度北京与上海的扩散强度与效应之后,其结果表明：北京扩散的强度以及效应都较弱于上海。因此,北京应弱化政府在科技资源配置中的作用,努力培育企业作为创新主体,提高自身对京津冀区域内其他地区的扩散的强度。     

Dynamic technological specialization,aggregated convergence and growth

This paper focuses on the contribution of dynamic technological specialization to aggregated growth and convergence. Certain theoretical approaches (Structuralism) maintain the view that being specialized in ‘correct’ technologies helps to achieve: i) sustainable rhythms of long-run growth; ii) accelerated catching up and higher rhythms of convergence in delayed countries. Using an endogenous growth model for a 23 countries sample between 1980 and 2010, the work contrasts those hypotheses by using static and dynamic approaches for technological specialization in comparison to other technological variables. Empirical results do not confirm that any ‘good’ specialization matters to growth and convergence at an aggregated level, neither under static nor dynamic approaches. The key elements to aggregated convergence and growth are more linked to spillovers of technological diffusion and to country-specificities (technological capabilities and capacities, domestic technical efforts, national innovation systems, industrial innovation processes, etc.) as it is pointed out by catching-up theories.     

论技术、技术扩散与经济增长

本文从经济学意义的角度,从效率及效率的提高出发给“技术”明确的概念界定,进而引入“技术存量”和“技术流量”的概念。从而将“技术”、“技术进步”、“技术创新”和“技术扩散”串连成递进的有内在联系的有机整体。以一个全新的角度对影响经济增长的因素进行分析。     

海南自贸港12个重点产业的科技支撑能力提升策略

12个重点产业对海南省经济社会发展具有重要意义,但普遍存在科技能力不足的问题.研究发现:海南高新技术产业发展相对滞后,相较于2013年,2018年规模以上工业企业的研发人员投入和专利产出均较大幅度减少;企业的研发主体地位不突出,企业在全社会研发经费中的占比低;全省科技投入强度弱,技术市场发展相对滞后,省内企业对技术的需求有待挖掘.借鉴农业机械和医药制造的科技支撑产业发展经验,提出强化政府引导、保障技术供给、挖掘技术需求方面的建议,着力提高科技对12个重点产业的支撑引领能力.     

企业技术创新系统组织错误界定与分类研究

组织错误是企业技术创新失败的潜在根源。从论域、判别对象和判别规则三方面提炼了企业技术创新系统组织错误的基本特点,明确指出组织错误是技术创新管理行为的失效,然后通过分析企业技术创新体系的构成要素,将复杂多样的技术创新管理行为纳入到由决策、资源、组织和规则四大系统构成的组织因素分析范式,最后提出了由系统层、指标层和模式层构成的组织错误三级分类框架模型,并设置了相应的判别规则,为进一步识别组织错误提供分析思路。     

科技文化融合与中国工业设计业的发展研究——以上海国际工业设计中心为例

作为文化创意产业中一个重要门类,工业设计业已经成为一个国家创新能力和科技水平的标志。本文在阐述工业设计业内涵的基础之上,总结出工业设计中科技与文化融合的特征和重要性,并从设计师、企业和园区三个层面详细描述了科技与文化互促融合的机制,最后结合笔者在上海国际工业设计中心的调研,分析该中心在推进科技与文化融合中的具体措施,为上海工业设计业的发展提供一些对策和建议。     

The Danish Agro Machinery Industry in a Global Perspective, 1945–2005

Abstract

Since the mid-nineteenth century, agriculture and the agro machinery industry has formed an integral part of the developed world, dominated by North America and Western Europe. After the Second World War, agricultural industrialization speeded up. Millions of small and mixed farms in the West disappeared to be replaced by large-scale and specialized farming. The technology needed to transform agriculture was supplied by an expanding agro machinery industry. As in other fields of industry, the agro machinery industry turned into an international business. By the turn of the twentieth century, farming and industry took an even bigger step as business and technology were being globalized. The agro machinery industry that served these global markets remained in the West, however. Eventually, transatlantic mergers consolidated firms into industries for plant, dairy and pig and poultry farming equipment. This article discusses how the Danish agro machinery increasingly became an integrated part of international and global developments.     

International diffusion of technology,industrial development and technological leapfrogging

This paper anlyzes how the international diffusion of technology fits historically within the overall process of ‘spurts’ of industrialization and what lessons can be learned by the present industrializing countries in the context of the microelectronics revolution. A review of some of the most important contributions to the technology diffusion literature and their relevance to structural theories of industrial development of economic growth is presented in the first part of the paper. A discussion of international diffusion, especially historical changes in technological leaderships, follows. The paper concludes with a consideration of the implications of diffusion analysis for industrializing countries and argues that the developing countries' potential for technological ‘leapfrogging’ into microelectronics has never been higher.     

技术差距、技术溢出与中国的技术进步:基于中美行业贸易数据的实证分析

文章利用1998~2007年的中美制造业四位数行业数据,对中美技术差距对进出口贸易技术溢出效应的影响进行了实证研究。结果显示,中美之间的贸易确实促进了中国的技术进步,中国正加速对美国的技术追赶;回归结果同时显示,随着中国技术水平逐渐逼近美国,贸易带来的技术溢出具有"天花板效应",以贸易来促进国内技术进步的难度在加大。进一步的分析表明,相比较出口而言,随着中美两国技术水平的接近,进口溢出引致的技术进步会更快遭遇递减局面。文章的分析结果表明,随着中国国内产品技术水平的提高与中美技术差距的缩小,传统的以贸易促进步策略越来越难以奏效,此时加大科技投入,激励并促进中国国内的自主研发是提高国内技术水平与技术进步的根本之策。     

中国教育收益率的结构分析——基于技术溢出的视角

本文主要从技术溢出的视角出发，讨论了中国教育收益率的结构特征，特别是不同教育水平的教育收益率比较。我们认为，随着教育水平的不断提升，工人不但可以使用国内更为先进的技术，由于技术溢出的存在他们还能够借鉴国外技术来突破国内技术。按照这种思路，我们在Nel—son-Phelps模型的基础上进行了扩展，将收益率对教育年数的偏导数分解为”技术溢出效应”和”收益递减效应”，并且说明我国的高等教育的收益率可能会更高，而技术性职业的收益率的增加速度会更快。1989—2006年7期CHNS数据支持了我们模型的结论。     

福建省人力资本对区域技术创新效率的影响研究

技术创新可以视为一种相对特殊的生产,人力资本作为投入要素在技术创新和技术扩散中起着决定性作用。文章测定了福建省九地市关于人力资本投入的技术创新Malmquist生产率,认为加快人力资本投入、调整人力资本结构将有助于提高福建省技术创新的效率。     

技术路线图国内外实践的启示——基于技术管理工具演化视角

我国的技术水平已有很大提高,但其管理水平与世界先进水平相比差距在扩大。技术路线图作为被实践证明了有效的技术管理工具,可以提供有益启示。在技术管理工具演化的过程中,技术路线图的思维与其产生时间相比显示了极强的前瞻性,使得其具有了广泛而持久的适用性。比较我国与发达国家技术路线图实践,可以看到我国在组织管理、创新和水平等方面存在着差距,针对这些差距做出努力可以提高我国的技术创新管理水平。     

基于威尔逊引力模型的福建农业技术扩散半径研究

在分析福建省现有的农业技术扩散模式的不足的基础上,利用改进的威尔逊引力模型,测算福建省9个地市的农业技术扩散辐射半径,以确定福建省9个地市的农业技术扩散辐射范围,为后续构建能够解决农业科技扩散过程中出现的“空白区”或“断层现象”的农业技术推广新平台和农业技术扩散新模式提供决策参考。     

科技中介:高校科技成果转化的桥梁和纽带

在高校科技成果转化过程中,科技转化中介机构是联结高校、企业和市场的桥梁和纽带,对促进科技与经济的互动,加速科技成果市场化、产业化具有重要作用。完善科技成果转化中介服务机制,对搭建科技成果转化交流沟通平台,促进我国高校科技成果转化具有重要意义。