Is Portugal’s forest transition going up in smoke?

The turnarounds from decrease to expansion in forest areas that took place during the last century have been examined through the lens of forest transition theory (FTT). Among temperate and Mediterranean European countries that have seen an expansion of forest cover, Portugal stands out as the only case in which this trend has recently been reverted. In this study, we explicitly map and document the forest transition (FT) in the country over the period 1907–2006, and investigate when and where forest transition happened de facto, and which were the land use transition pathways that resulted from the shrublands, agriculture, and forest interplay dynamics. After thematic and geometric harmonization of land cover maps from 1907, 1955, 1970, 1990, and 2006, a cluster analysis established four typologies, and a transition matrix was constructed to assess land cover dynamics. We found that up to 1955, FT occurred simultaneously with agricultural expansion, as shrubland areas diminished. Afterwards, with the retraction of agricultural area and the consequential decoupling of forest management from local actors, FT gained momentum and expanded up to the 1990s. While during the first half of the 20th century, forest expansion followed the “Scarcity” and “State Policy” pathways fostered by local socio-ecological feedback loops, throughout the second half of the century forest transition was driven by exogenous socio-economic forces, following “Economic Development” and “Globalization” pathways. We show how, despite these forces, FT can be derailed by endogenous factors such as wildfires, which limited and in some areas even reverted the afforestation process, initiating a deforestation phase. Since the necessary conditions for FT (technology shift, urbanization, agriculture retraction and public afforestation programs) were available in mainland Portugal, we advance the hypothesis that critical wildfire risk governance deficits may have been responsible for arresting FT. Considering the critical role of forests and other wooded areas in supporting climate change mitigation and sustainable development, our work provides useful evidence and insights for public decision makers on previously unaddressed dimensions of FTT.     

Envisioning a global forest transition: Status,role, and implications

Satellite data-driven discoveries are fuelling the literature on forest transitions, particularly in quantifying slow, large-scale trends. Mather’s forest transition concept depicts the inflection point marking a change from decreasing to increasing forest area. This theory is being elucidated using satellite images of global forest cover from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration of the United States (NASA), the European Space Agency (ESA), and now from the FAO’s recently introduced geospatial monitoring platform SEPAL 2.1. Recently, a series of high profile papers have illuminated the concept of the forest transition using analysis of remote sensing-based forest cover images. Defined as an increase in global forest cover, analysis of satellite images over the past thirty years suggests that a global forest transition has occurred. However, satellite data provide less information about biodiversity and carbon sequestration outcomes in new forests. Incorporating other data sources on the quality of forest transitions offers the potential to develop better reforestation programs, address climate change goals and enhance other ecological and human benefits. This article presents a view on remote sensing, biodiversity, and carbon science that has changed the study of forest transitions, and an outline of anticipated and suggested science and policy directions.     

林权变动对森林资源培育和木材供给的影响分析

基于林地配置和木材供给的计量经济学模型,利用7个南方县的面板数据进行实证分析。回归结果显示,经济发展对森林覆盖率产生正面的影响,人口压力对森林覆盖率有消极的影响,采伐等相关成本上升和实际利率提高会减少市场上商品材的供给。结果还显示,林权改革显著地增加了南方集体林区商品材供给,但由于样本数据观测期短,暂未发现林权改革增加南方集体林区森林覆盖率。     

A study of farmer’s decision and incentive scheme to reduce highland maize farming in Thailand

During the past 15 years, there has been a considerable increase in highland maize farming in Nan, a province in northern Thailand. The increase in farming area causes an excessive forest encroachment and environmental problems, e.g. soil degradation, landslide, and pesticide contamination. This research explores the mechanism and factors which drive a sustainable transformation from highland maize farming to reforestation. We survey 107 farmers in Nammeed and Sopsai watersheds in where the reverses of growing trend of deforestation in Thailand have been observed. Comparative statistical analysis and regression are used to analyse factors affecting farmer’s decisions and compare differences between the two sites. We find that the fundamental mechanism driving a sustainable transformation from highland maize farming to reforestation comprises 3 pillars. These are 1) realization of adequate economic, health or environmental benefits derived from the alternatives; 2) a sense of belonging and attachment towards the forest and 3) effective enforcements of communal rules and regulations. While natural transformation in Nammeed area highlights the roles of flatland as key driver of the change, subsidy schemes can supplement the transformation during transitional period as seen in Sopsai area.     

Simulating land use changes under alternative policy scenarios for conservation of native forests in south-central Chile

In this study, we combined policy analysis with landscape change modeling to simulate outcomes of alternative forest conservation instruments proposed by opposing policy coalitions. In 1992, concern over rapid land conversion to timber plantations (Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus spp.) in Chile gave rise to a protracted policy process resulting in the 2008 Native Forest Law (NFL), which subsidizes reforestation and management with native forest. To date, however, NFL has had little impact on native forest conservation. To understand how the policy process that created the NFL shaped its outcomes, we employed the Dyna-CLUE modeling approach to simulate land use changes in south-central Chile from 1993 to 2007, based on 3 scenarios: (1) enactment of NFL in 1993 when the law was originally debated, and the different configurations of subsidies and regulations proposed in the NFL policy debate by (2) the industrial forestry coalition and (3) the forest conservation coalition. We observed no major difference in native forest loss between simulated outcomes of the industry-advocated policy and the actual NFL legislation. The conservation coalition’s policy scenario increased native forest area, primarily in shrub steppe areas, but also via conversion of pine plantations if incentive payments were large enough. However, NFL payments are inadequate to make native forest management a viable economic land use alternative to industrial pine plantations, which are also subsidized in Chile. Gains in native forest cover occurred mostly on lands under ancestral indigenous claims (unrelated to the discussion of the NFL). We conclude that the NFL, even if enacted in 1993, would have been ineffective in preventing native forest loss, because tree plantations are more profitable and NFL regulations were weakened by the industrial coalition that opposed—and strongly shaped—the final legislation. Effective incentives for protecting early-successional forests and shrublands are needed to mitigate further losses and foster recovery of Chile’s native forests.     

Identifying deforestation attractors and patterns of fragmentation for seasonally dry tropical forest in central Veracruz,Mexico

Seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF) are exposed to numerous threats stemming from human activity and are considered a high conservation priority globally. Nevertheless, planning the conservation, management, and restoration of forests requires a detailed regional understanding of current forest distribution, and patterns and attractors of deforestation. We explored SDTF cover in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, where little is known about this type of forest since it was erroneously considered to have been eliminated and thus has not be included in recent conservation planning in Mexico. A time-series of land use and land cover (LULC) maps, based on Landsat imagery from 1973 (MSS), 1990 (TM), and 2000 (ETM+), was used to analyze historical patterns of deforestation and fragmentation of SDTF in a priority watershed in central Veracruz. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify the main attractors of forest loss. Maps based on higher resolution SPOT imagery (2007–2008) were used to determine the current extent of SDTF. Results from our LULC analysis revealed landscapes that were consistently dominated (>50%) by some combination of intensified land use including cattle pastures, rain-fed and irrigated agricultural lands, with closed SDTF cover fluctuating from 11.3 to 9.26% during the study period (1973–2007). Annualized rates of forest loss between Landsat images (1973 vs. 2000; −2.02%) and between Landsat and SPOT images (1973 vs. 2007; −0.59), were moderate to low, with historical records suggesting that most deforestation occurred more than a century ago before the Mexican revolution. Nevertheless, rates of forest loss varied considerable between different time periods, with slight reforestation initially (1.55%; 1973–1990), followed by a marked decline (−8.08%; 1990–2000), and finally a noticeable increases in forest cover (4.92%; 2000–2007) that corresponds with changes in public policy and trends in population migration. The number of forest patches tripled between 1973 and 2000 and the mean forest patch area decreased almost 80% over the same time period. Logistic regression analysis (1973–2000) indicated that the main attractors of closed forest transformation were proximity to gentle slopes, cattle pastures, and the hydraulic infrastructure needed for crop irrigation. Although SDTF is highly fragmented and perturbed, important remnants of this diverse native forest still persists in the region. Our findings are discussed in the context of future conservation and restoration efforts.     

Land use dynamics in the central highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation

The paper investigates geo‐physical, agro‐ecological, and socio‐economic determinants of past land use change in two districts of Dak Lak province in the Central Highlands of Vietnam and assesses the influence of rural development policies on land cover change. Landsat satellite images from the years 1975, 1992 and 2000 are interpreted to detect land cover in two time periods. A survey in randomly selected villages provides primary recall data on socio‐economic and policy variables hypothesised to influence land use change. Secondary data on rainfall, soil suitability, and topography was obtained from meteorological stations and from a digital soil map and digital elevation model. All data were spatially referenced using geographic information systems (GIS) software. A reduced‐form, multinomial logit model is used to estimate the influence of hypothesised determinants on land use and the probabilities that a certain pixel has one of five land classes during either of the two periods. Results suggest that the first period from 1975 to 1992 was characterised by land‐intensive agricultural expansion and the conversion of forest into grass and agricultural land. During the second period, since 1992, the rapid, more labour‐ and capital‐intensive growth in the agricultural sector was enabled by the introduction of fertiliser, improved access to rural roads and markets, and expansion of the irrigated area. These policies, combined with the introduction of protected forest areas and policies discouraging shifting cultivation during the second period reduced the pressure on forests while at the same time increasing agricultural productivity and incomes for a growing population. Forest cover during the second period mainly increased due to the regeneration of areas formerly used for shifting cultivation.     

政策综合在森林转型中的作用——以福建长汀为例

森林转型的概念于1992年被首次提出,现已成为国际生态经济和自然资源管理领域讨论的前沿与热点问题。中国在20世纪80年代实现了森林转型,为全球固碳和气候变化减缓作出了重要贡献。政策因素被认为在中国森林转型进程中发挥了重要的作用。以中国森林转型的典型地区福建长汀为例,构建植被恢复政策综合分析框架,从植被恢复政策的纵向综合与横向综合两方面对促进长汀森林转型的政策综合进行分析,对长汀植被恢复政策取得成功的原因进行探索,以丰富森林转型的政策路径理论的讨论。研究认为,植被恢复横向政策综合是长汀森林转型相关政策取得成功的关键,长汀的植被恢复政策体系对其他地区具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Towards zero deforestation and forest restoration in the Amazon region of Maranhão state,Brazil

The Amazon forest in the state of Maranhão ensures ecosystem services that directly and indirectly affect the life quality of its population and economy, via hydrologic and climatic regulation, among other benefits. Currently, only 25% of the original forest cover (24.7 thousand km²) remains while illegal deforestation persists in a violent process that provokes visible social, economic and environmental harm. Simultaneously, Maranhão has seen record levels of burning, faces a water shortage and fights against the worst social and economic indicators in the country. Conversely, secondary vegetation covers 19.9 thousand km² (27% of deforested area) and is completely unprotected. Contrary to the international commitments assumed by Brazil to combat deforestation and restore forests, some of the political representatives of Maranhão have sought legal mechanisms to further diminish forest cover in public and private areas. To promote the conservation and restoration of Maranhão Amazon Forest, a multi-institutional network of researchers was established in 2015. This viewpoint paper aims to draw attention to this endangered region of the Brazilian Amazon and give science-oriented recommendations to policy makers in order to avoid more setbacks. We argue that Maranhão state must urgently establish a policy of Zero Deforestation, protect secondary forests and comply with the national forest restoration policy, thus ensuring long-term economic sustainability.     

基于EKC模型的山东省森林资源变化与人均GDP关系分析

以山东省森林资源为研究对象,以第八次全国森林资源连续清查山东省调查结果为基础,运用库兹涅茨基本模型,对山东省森林资源变化与人均GDP之间的关系进行研究,同时分析了人均GDP变化对森林资源影响的滞后性。研究结果表明:森林覆盖率和森林蓄积量与人均GDP的复相关系数均大于0.9,说明森林资源变化情况和人均GDP存在相关关系,相关性较强;森林蓄积量、森林覆盖率对人均GDP的响应均存在不同程度的滞后效应,森林覆盖率的滞后年份为2年,森林蓄积量的滞后年份为7年。该研究结果可为山东省林业政策制定提供参考依据。     

Socio-environmental drivers of forest change in rural Uganda

Tropical deforestation and forest degradation are among the top global threats to biodiversity, carbon storage and rural livelihoods, but the social processes underlying these changes remain difficult to observe across large spatial scales and in data-poor contexts such as tropical Africa. We link longitudinal survey data from agricultural households in rural Uganda to high-resolution satellite data on forest cover change, and use this linked dataset to investigate processes at two scales: tree planting and harvesting at the parcel scale, and deforestation and reforestation at the community scale. This multi-scale analysis reveals that tree planting is more common on parcels with secure tenure, by educated heads and in isolated communities. Deforestation is highest in land-rich, agrarian communities with low population density and high baseline forest cover. These results provide explicit evidence that the social drivers of forest change in Uganda vary across scales, indicating a need for additional multi-scale studies.     

Abstracts of Award-Winning Theses

Costa Rica has long been a leader among developing countries in the design of and experimentation with innovative environmental programs. Since 1997, Costa Rica's "Pagos de Servicios Ambientales" (Payments for Environmental Services) Program has provided payments to more than 4,400 farmers and forest owners for reforestation, forest conservation, and sustainable forest management activities. The econometric analysis of a survey of farmers and forest owners, including both PSA participants and nonparticipants, shows that farm size, human capital and household economic factors, and information variables significantly influence participation in PSA program alternatives. Large farmers and forest owners are disproportionately represented among program participants.     

森林生态补偿方式运行实践探讨

现阶段建立长久有效的森林生态效益经济补偿机制已成为推进中国林业向纵深发展的关键性措施,并受到政府及广大学者的高度关注。文章阐述了中国森林生态补偿方式的运行现状,重点分析了现阶段国内森林生态补偿方式在实践中存在的问题,并认为完善政府财政支付体系、制定科学的补偿标准、明晰产权机制以及与市场化补偿相结合是未来森林生态补偿的发展方向。     

广东省森林资源动态变化分析与评价

为合理地评价和经营森林资源,科学地进行广东省森林资源生态效益的监测,根据广东省林业厅发布的广东省森林资源情况公报数据,从森林资源面积、蓄积量、组成结构等方面总结分析了过去八年来森林资源动态变化的原因。研究表明,自2005以来广东省林业用地面积呈逐年下降趋势。由于广东省政府及林业部门的高度重视,实施一系列林业生态保护及可持续发展工程,广东省有林地面积、生态公益林面积、以及活立木总蓄积不断增加,为广东省经济社会发展提供了有力的生态安全保障。     

Designating tree crops as forest: Land competition and livelihood effects mediate tree crops impact on natural forest cover in south China

The Chinese government applies the term ‘tree crops’ (jingjilin) to a bundle of tree species with uses other than timber production, defining this category as a component of national forest statistics. Tree crops may displace either farmland or forestland, and can be a promising livelihood option for smallholders. The overall impact of this particular policy on natural forest growth remained unanswered. In the general expansion trend of tree cover in southern China, tree crops could compete for land with natural forests, their cultivation may pose environmental trade-offs with natural forest cover. However, in a context of large labor flows from countryside to cities, tree crops could provide promising opportunities for dealing with on-farm labor shortages and generating income for disadvantaged populations remaining in rural communities, then promoting remaining natural forest quality through alternative livelihoods process. There is a knowledge gap to thoroughly investigate tree crops’ impact on natural forest change both conceptually and empirically, especially a mechanism verification of the alternative livelihood hypothesis. Thus, we construct a framework assessing land use competition and alternative livelihood effects together to assess overall impacts of tree crop cultivation on natural forests. Our dataset combines forest resource inventory data and provincial social-economic factors for a panel analysis of contributions to change in natural forest cover, density, and stock in China’s biodiversity-rich southern provinces. Results show tree crop cover is negatively associated with natural forest extent, but positive associated with change in natural forest density, while the relationship with change in natural forest stock is insignificant. Further tests of mechanisms support the hypothesis that tree crops benefit disadvantaged rural populations, providing an alternative livelihood. Defining tree crops as forest in China obscures important patterns, particularly a trade-off between tree crops and natural forest cover and a possible synergy with natural forest density mediated by alternative livelihood processes. Policy makers should enact specific policies to incentivize natural forest recovery in the southern collective forest zone and reconsider the appropriateness of defining tree crops as forest. Concentration and intensification of tree crop production on suitable lands may have the potential to benefit both forests and impoverished populations.     

森林碳汇:后京都时代减排的重要途径

分析指出森林碳汇较其他减排措施具有潜力大、易操作、见效快、成本低、对经济增长影响小、居民福利高的独特优越性,必将受到国家气候变化应对措施选择的青睐。同时指出,森林碳汇不但包括换取排放中的造林和再造林的碳汇项目,而且包括抵消排放中的增加的森林碳库。分析国际气候变化谈判的焦点难点,指出森林碳汇必将成为后京都时代减排的重要途径之一。     

A study on the influence of land institution on state-building in South Korea: Human resources

Since Korea was divided, conflict has continued between South and North Korea. However, preparation for the reunification of Korea needs to be considered consistently. Prior to this reunification, it is advisable to analyse the process of state-building in South Korea immediately following the liberation from Japanese colonial rule because this could be the foundation of the reunification of Korea. Meanwhile, land institution seems to have an influence on the process of state-building. Land institution appears to be connected to state-building economically, socially and politically, and, as this is the case, the German government also executed land reform for state-building following its unification in 1990. Regarding land institution, human resources (HR) seems to play a pivotal role. HR is in charge of the operation of land management organisations and acts to improve the related laws and systems, which seems to have a considerable impact on land institution. In light of the above, poor HR could have a negative influence on not only land institution, but also societal, economic and political aspects of state-building. Hence, this study reviews the influence of HR on land management in the process of state-building in South Korea immediately following the liberation from Japanese colonial rule; furthermore, related problems and their fundamental reasons are analysed.     

森林多目标可持续经营规划研究——以白河林业局为案例

以吉林省白河林业局为例,采用森林多目标系统分析规划技术与模型(FSOS)对不同森林经营方案进行优化分析。结果显示,设计的森林多目标经营方案在森林年采伐量、林龄结构、森林蓄积量以及经济效益等方面均优于现有的经营方案。表明森林多目标经营可以实现森林生态效益与经济效益的统一,实现森林可持续经营。     

Correlates of forest-cover change in European Russia, 1989–2012

European Russia rapidly transitioned after the collapse of the Soviet Union from state socialism to a market economy. How did this political and economic transformation interact with ecological conditions to determine forest loss and gain? We explore this question with a study of European Russia in the two decades following the collapse of the Soviet Union. We identify three sets of potential determinants of forest-cover change—supply-side (environmental), demand-side (economic), and political/administrative factors. Using new satellite data for three distinct types of forest-cover change—logging, forest fires, and forest gain—we quantify the relative importance of these variables in province-level regression models during periods of a) state collapse (1990s), and b) state growth (2000s). The three sets of covariates jointly explain considerable variation in the outcomes we examine, with size of forest bureaucracy, autonomous status of the region, and prevalence of evergreen forests emerging as robust predictors of forest-cover change. Overall, economic and administrative variables are significantly associated with rates of logging and reforestation, while environmental variables have high explanatory power for patterns of forest fire loss.