Do Differences in the Scale of Irrigation Projects Generate Different Impacts on Poverty and Production?

This article investigates differences in household production and consumption among small‐ and large‐scale irrigators to assess whether the scale of an irrigation project increases household welfare in Mali. Much of the evidence of the impact of irrigation does not use counterfactual analysis to estimate such impact or distinguish between the scale of the irrigation projects to be evaluated. In the dataset collected by the author, both a large‐scale irrigation project and small‐scale projects are used to construct counterfactual groups. Propensity score matching is used to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated for small and large irrigators relative to non‐irrigators on agricultural production, agricultural income and consumption per capita. Small‐scale irrigation has a larger effect on agricultural production and agricultural income than large‐scale irrigation, but large‐scale irrigation has a larger effect on consumption per capita. This suggests that market integration and non‐farm externalities are important in realising gains in agricultural surplus from irrigation.     

Rural–urban migration and agricultural productivity: the case of Senegal

This paper explores the relationship between agricultural productivity and rural-urban migration by developing an econometric model and applying it to the case of Senegal. Country level data is used covering the years 1961-1996. Policy implications of reducing rural-urban migration using agricultural output elasticities are developed. The findings support the hypothesis that rural-urban migration is a positive function of the ratio of urban per capita income to rural per capita income. Moreover, the results support a policy aimed at reducing rural-urban migration flows through increases in per capita earnings derived from increased agricultural investment.     

Contract farming: opportunity cost and trade‐offs

An important literature has established that participation in contract farming leads to higher incomes and has a number of other beneficial effects on the welfare of participating households. Yet no one has looked at the opportunity cost of and the various trade‐offs involved in participating in contract farming. I look at the relationship between participation in contract farming and income from (i) livestock, (ii) labor markets, (iii) nonfarm businesses, and (iv) agricultural sources other than livestock and contract farming and (v) unearned income. Using data from Madagascar, I find that participation in contract farming is associated with a 79% decrease in how much income per capita the average household derives from labor markets and a 47% decrease in how much income per capita it derives from nonfarm businesses, but also with a 51% increase in how much income per capita the average household derives from agricultural sources other than livestock and contract farming, possibly due to technological spillovers. Thus, even though contract farming has been shown to improve welfare in multiple ways in this context, it looks as though those gains come at the cost of an “agricultural involution” on the part of participating households, who seem to turn away from non‐agricultural activities. This has important implications for structural transformation narratives.     

农民人均纯收入与农业生产结构的关系研究

基于改革开放以来的宏观数据,运用SVAR模型主要进行脉冲响应分析、方差分析。结果显示,农民人均纯收入与农业生产结构的几个指标之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,农业(种植业)产值对农民人均纯收入的影响最大,农民人均纯收入对农业生产结构变动的响应具有一定的滞后性。因此,提出转变发展思想,以工业的形式发展农业;推进产业改革,调优农业生产结构;调整产业政策,增添农民人均纯收入增长动力。     

陕西农村居住地生态环境影响因素分析

[目的]随着农村城镇化进程的加快,由此引发的农村居住地生态环境恶化已成为制约农业和农村经济可持续发展的瓶颈,加强农村居住地生态环境保护和治理,是目前亟待解决的重要问题。研究分析农村居住地生态环境影响因素,为有效改善居住地生态环境提供重要理论依据。[方法]以陕西省为主要研究区域,采用层次分析法,构建矩阵模型,研究影响陕西省农村居住地生态环境的农民因素、生产活动和政府因素3个层次,包括周边乡镇企业废物排放、农用投入品的使用、畜禽养殖业废物排放、人均消费支出、农村人均家庭纯收入、农村家庭恩格尔系数、环保意识、政府监管力度、环境保护财政支出,相关政策法规等10个因素所占权重,得到不同因素的重要性排序。[结果]乡镇企业废物排放、农用投入品的使用、农村人均家庭纯收入和农村人均消费支出是影响农村居住地生态环境的主要因素,且重要性排序为乡镇企业废物排放农用投入品的使用农村人均家庭纯收入农村人均消费支出。[结论]加强乡镇企业废物排放管理和农用投入品的生产和使用审查,降低不必要的消费支出,同时为农民提供更多的就业机会,提高人均家庭村收入,是目前改善农村居住地生态环境的有效措施,为农民提供一个安全舒适的居住场所,这也将有利于农村经济的可持续发展。     

新疆农业资金投入与农民收入效应关系的实证研究

[目的]为清晰识别农业资金投入对新疆农民收入的影响程度,并给予地方政府进一步优化调整农业资金使用效能提供参考依据。[方法]文章选取1978~2013年新疆统计数据,采用协整分析、误差修正模型等方法对财政支农、农业贷款、农民自主投资与新疆农民人均纯收入进行了实证探究。[结果]新疆地区财政支农、农业信贷、农民自主投资与农民人均纯收入之间存在长期均衡关系;而短期内财政支农、农业信贷以及农户自主投资的促进效应不如长期明显,其中农业贷款的收入效应远低于财政支农和农民自主投资;财政支农、农民自主投资与农民人均纯收入在短期内具有格兰杰因果关系,长期则格兰杰因果关系解释力逐渐减弱,而农业贷款在短期内不是新疆农民人均纯收入增长的格兰杰原因,长期则互为格兰杰因果关系。[结论]该文提出加大财政支农投入力度,提高财政资金配置效率;推动农村金融改革,提高农村金融效率;提振农民自主积累资金投资的积极性等政策含义,以期为新疆"三农问题"有效解决提供坚实可靠的资本基础。     

Is off-farm income reforming the farm? Evidence from Mexico

Does access to off-farm income complement or compete with agricultural production? This article explores the effect of off-farm income on agricultural production activities, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. We first discuss the theoretical conditions under which access to off-farm income may influence production in an agricultural household model. Instrumental-variable (IV) estimation methods are then used to test whether agricultural production activities, technologies, and input use differ between households with and without access to off-farm income. We find that off-farm income has a negative effect on agricultural output and the use of family labor on the farm, but a positive impact on the demand for purchased inputs. There is also a slight efficiency gain in households with access to off-farm income. Findings offer insights into how household production evolves as rural households increasingly engage in off-farm income activities.     

Farmers’ Income and Production Responses to Rural Taxation Reform in Three Regions in China

The relationship between agricultural taxation and production efficiency has been thoroughly explored for many countries. Recently, China has taken various measures including the rural taxation reform (RTR) to promote grain production and to increase farmer incomes. In this study, we investigate whether the Chinese policy of abolishing rural taxation has improved farm households’ incomes and affected their production decisions. Using household survey data obtained from three regions in China, we estimate the effect of the RTR on farmers’ income. Results show that the RTR has significantly improved farmers’ post‐tax net income by 9.2% in Shandong, 16.9% in Shanxi and 16.8% in Zhejiang. These increments, mostly from farm income rather than from off‐farm income, are much higher than the direct income increase from the tax savings. In addition, we examine the dynamic impact of farmers’ net income, and find that the RTR has a sustained positive income effect in Shandong and Shanxi, whereas its positive effect in Zhejiang appears temporary. We also examine farmers’ production responses to the RTR. Results show that farmers in the three regions respond in different ways: farmers in Shandong significantly increase their labour input, farmers in Zhejiang increase intermediate inputs, whereas Shanxi farmers augment their intermediate inputs and enlarge their crop acreage. It appears that the farmers’ responses to the taxation reform vary due to the agronomic and economic factors in these three regions, suggesting that diverse post‐RTR supplemental policies should be implemented in different regions.     

Agricultural production and children's diets: evidence from rural Ethiopia

We study the relationship between pre‐school children's food consumption and household agricultural production. Using a large household survey from rural Ethiopia, we find that increasing household production diversity leads to considerable improvements in children's dietary diversity. However, we also document how this nonseparability of consumption and production does not hold for households that have access to food markets. These findings imply that nutrition‐sensitive agricultural interventions that push for market integration are likely to be more effective in reducing under‐nutrition than those promoting production diversity.     

Did the commodity price spike increase rural poverty? Evidence from a long‐run panel in Bangladesh

We assess the effects of the dramatic rise in agricultural commodity prices during 2007–2008 on income dynamics and poverty among rural households in Bangladesh. A unique panel data set allows us to put the effects of recent events in the context of long‐run trends in income and poverty. We use data from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of rural households in Bangladesh collected in four waves in 1988, 2000, 2004, and 2008. Nargis and Hossain (Nargis, N., Hossain, M., 2006. Income dynamics and pathways out of rural poverty in Bangladesh, 1988–2004. Agric. Econ. 35, 425–435) analysed income dynamics and poverty incidence for the first three waves, finding a declining trend in both the incidence and severity of poverty, aided in particular by human capital development and off‐farm employment opportunities. We update and extend the analysis to include data collected in 2008, at the height of a spike in agricultural prices. We find that the price of a balanced food basket increased by more than 50% during 2000–2008, while household income rose only 15%. As a result the incidence and severity of rural poverty in Bangladesh sunk to pre‐2000 levels during 2004–2008. Thus, the price spikes in 2007–2008 helped push an additional 13 million people into poverty in rural Bangladesh. Moreover, we find that the determinants of poverty have not been time‐invariant. In particular, agricultural production, which had previously been associated with a higher incidence of poverty, served as a hedge against higher food prices during 2004–2008.     

Does human capital raise farm or nonfarm earning more? New insight from a rural Pakistan household panel

This study explores how human capital affects farm household earnings using two tools to refine measurement of human capital effects. First, it employs a two‐sector model to allow the allocation of family labor between farm and nonfarm activities. Second, it accounts for village fixed effects to evaluate whether results from panel data differ meaningfully from a cross‐sectional data analysis with local binary variables. The results show that education has a negligible effect on farm earnings; instead, experience appears to be the principal channel by which human capital affects agricultural performance in a traditional rural setting. Our results also suggest that prior models that fail to separate nonfarm activities spuriously exaggerated the effect of education to the farm sector. In addition, typical cross‐sectional analyses that ignore fixed effects may cause the effects of education on rural household earnings to be significantly overstated. The fact that panel data regressions accounting for village‐level fixed effects found only one instance of education raising earnings—the effect of literacy on nonfarm income—suggests that considerable heterogeneity may have been ignored in cross‐sectional data analyses, especially ones that omitted village‐level effects.     

21世纪以来农业基础设施减贫效应研究

目的 农业基础设施不仅是农业稳定生产的重要基石,也是农村贫困治理的重要手段。探究农业基础设施减贫效应,对未来相对贫困治理和减贫经验总结意义重大。方法 文章运用空间自回归模型（SAR）和空间误差模型（SEM）,分析21世纪以来中国农业基础设施减贫效应及内生机制。结果 农业交通基础设施中的公路密度、河道密度和铁路密度分别显著降低农村贫困发生率1.424、0.03和0.05个单位;农业生产基础设施中的人均装机容量、水土流失治理能力和每公顷塑料薄膜用量分别显著降低农村贫困发生率0.122、0.212和0.011个单位。从控制变量来看,每千人播种面积,农村人均教育水平和人均乡镇卫生院床位数也发挥着积极的减贫作用。由减贫机制可知,农业基础设施主要通过降低农业自然灾害和增加农业产值,进而提高农户收入和降低农村贫困发生率。结论 应尽快完善农田田间道路、农业生产基础设施建设和高标准农田建设,加强农村公共基础设施投入,促进农业增产和农村减贫。     

Can the Internet improve agricultural production? Evidence from Viet Nam

This paper aims to contribute to the growing literature on the potential benefits of the Internet on rural livelihoods. We estimate the relationship between Internet access and agricultural production in rural Viet Nam using a panel dataset from 2008–2012. This is a time span during which Internet access increased substantially and government‐run and private online outlets providing information about agriculture started to operate. Our findings suggest that Internet access is associated with a 6.8% higher volume of total agricultural output. We find that this result is manifested through more efficient use of fertilizer. Our findings are stronger for younger households. The less developed northern provinces have benefited the most from the arrival of the Internet. The results are weaker in the case of rice, which is related to strong government involvement in rice production and prices.     

广东省农村基础设施建设与农业经济增长的关系探究

作为提高农业生产效率、改善农民生活质量及促进农村经济增长的重要物质基础,农村基础设施建设对扩大农村地区内需增长点,解决农村剩余劳动力就业问题以及全面推进城乡统筹发展具有至关重要的意义。广东省作为我国南部地区经济发达省份,具有丰富的农业生产自然资源,但其农村基础设施发展程度相对来说却比较低,其成为农村经济发展的"瓶颈",不利于农村经济结构优化升级。为了保障农村基础设施的供给与农村经济发展水平保持协调一致,文章以广东地区农村为例,采用多元非线性回归分析的方法,在论证农村基础设施建设对农村经济增长的作用机制的基础上,从农村基础设施建设与农业生产、非农生产和农民人均纯收入3方面的内在关系进行计量分析,结果表明,首先农村基础设施对影响农业经济增长的3方面因素都发挥了显著的规模经济效益;其次农村基础设施建设中的教育变量对农业经济增长的作用最为显著;再次,农业机械设施在农业生产中的作用相对于其他影响因素而言不太显著;最后,道路、通讯设施对非农生产和农民人均收入收入的贡献率相对其他变量数值较低。并提出健全农村基础设施建设投融资机制、加大农村基础设施的资金投入力度、提高农村基础设施建设和利用水平、全面推进农村基础设施建设进程等优化策略。     

The impact of migration on rural poverty and inequality: a case study in China

Large numbers of agricultural labor moved from the countryside to cities after the economic reforms in China. Migration and remittances play an important role in transforming the structure of rural household income. This article examines the impact of rural‐to‐urban migration on rural poverty and inequality in a mountainous area of Hubei province using the data of a 2002 household survey. Since migration income is a potential substitute for farm income, we present counterfactual scenarios of what rural income, poverty, and inequality would have been in the absence of migration. Our results show that, by providing alternatives to households with lower marginal labor productivity in agriculture, migration leads to an increase in rural income. In contrast to many studies that suggest that the increasing share of nonfarm income in total income widens inequality, this article offers support for the hypothesis that migration tends to have egalitarian effects on rural income for three reasons: (1) migration is rational self‐selection—farmers with higher expected return in agricultural activities and/or in local nonfarm activities choose to remain in the countryside while those with higher expected return in urban nonfarm sectors migrate; (2) households facing binding constraints of land supply are more likely to migrate; (3) poorer households benefit disproportionately from migration.     

基于SFA模型的河南省粮食产量时空变化及投入要素影响

[目的]粮食问题影响着一个国家的国民经济发展和人民生产、生活,农业在整个社会生产活动中占有重要地位,河南省是全国农业大省,对河南省粮食产量进行分析具有重要的现实意义。[方法]以2005—2015年河南省各县粮食产量和投入要素为研究对象,将研究数据面板化,利用线性相关、随机前沿生产函数模型、脱钩分析等方法,运用ArcGIS 10.1、Eviews 8.0和SPSS 19.0等软件,对河南省各县粮食产量时空变化、投入要素影响程度和脱钩效应进行分析。[结果]模型运算结果表明文章选用模型效果较好,能够反映粮食产量的时空变化以及其与投入要素之间的关系,且符合河南省粮食产量实际情况。研究结果表明:(1)从时间上来看, 2005—2015年河南省粮食产量总体呈线性上升趋势;(2)从空间上来看,河南省中部、北部、东部和南部粮食产量较高,西部受地势因素影响粮食产量较低;(3)粮食产量与化肥施用折纯量、粮食播种面积、农民经营性收入、农药施用量、农业机械总动力和乡村农业人口呈正相关关系,与农村用电量呈负相关关系;(4)化肥施用折纯量、农村用电量、农药施用量存在脱钩效应,粮食播种面积、农民经营性收入、农业机械总动力不存在脱钩效应。[结论]应保持目前粮食播种面积不变,提高农业机械总动力,突出投入要素的影响,同时对河南省各县进行区域功能定位。     

海南省蔬菜产业对现代农业发展的影响研究

文章剖析海南省蔬菜产业与现代农业发展现状,其中对蔬菜产业主要是从蔬菜产业结构构成、蔬菜产业集中度、蔬菜产业竞争力方面进行分析;对现代农业发展则主要从农业国内生产总值及农村家庭人均纯收入、农业生产条件、农业生产效果方面进行分析。在此基础上,分别确定了海南省蔬菜产业和现代农业发展的指标体系。对蔬菜产业指标体系从区域蔬菜产品生产能力、区域蔬菜产业化的基础、农业资源、蔬菜生产条件等4个方面确立7个指标;对现代农业发展指标体系从农业外部条件、农业本身生产条件、农业生产效果等3个方面建立6个指标。选取2000~2014年相关指标的统计数据,运用spss22.0及因子分析法确定人均蔬菜产量与人均地区生产总值为主变量,并运用灰色关联分析确定二者的相对关联度为0.61,充分说明海南省蔬菜产业对其现代农业发展具有重要影响,并提出做强做大本地蔬菜特色产业,促进现代农业发展;优化蔬菜产业结构,促进现代农业发展;延长蔬菜产业产业链,促进现代农业发展;加快蔬菜产业产品的品牌建设,提高蔬菜产品品质,促进现代农业发展等策略。     

贫困地区农业结构调整对农民收入的影响——重庆五区县实证分析

本文利用重庆贫困地区5个区县619户农户实地调查资料,着重从农产品商品率和现金收入的变化,分析了农业结构调整对贫困地区农户人均纯收入的影响。同时探讨了农业结构调整对农户增收的影响因素。经过计算和分析认为:农民人均纯收入的变化中,贡献率最大的是外出打工等工资性收入,农业纯收入增量的贡献率不到1/3。且农业纯收入增量中,由于商品率提高带来的现金收入增量也不到一半。因此可以说,农业结构调整对农户收入的提高产生了一定影响,但作用有限。另外,农村基础设施建设,如道路、电力通讯等设施建设是影响农业结构调整对农民增收作用的重要因素。     

河北省农民收入影响因素分析

2019年中央一号文件提出,2019—2020年是全面建成小康社会的决胜期,"三农"领域有不少必须完成的硬任务,必须坚持把解决好"三农"问题作为全党工作的重中之重不动摇。而解决"三农"问题的核心是增加农民收入,增加农民收入是河北省经济发展中的一个重要问题。本文首先通过观察2003—2018年河北省农民人均可支配收入状况,收集基本数据,确定城镇化水平、农产品人均占有量、农产品生产价格指数和农村人均消费支出四个影响因素;其次运用计量经济学模型和Eviews8.0软件进行分析和检验;最后根据拟合后的计量模型,得到农民人均可支配收入与农村人均消费支出和城镇化水平两个指标都成明显正相关关系:在其他指标不变时,农村人均消费支出每增加1元、城镇化水平每提升8%,农民人均可支配收入就分别增加0.88元和129.11元。本文根据所得结论提出了对策及建议,并结合实际为河北省农民增收探索新途径。     

FARM NET VALUE ADDED IN SCOTLAND AND THE DESIGNATION OF AREAS FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE

Recent procedures for selecting disadvantaged areas for European Community rural development assistance have specified criteria including low levels of agricultural income and GDP per capita, and proportionately high levels of agricultural employment. The first of these is measured by Farm Net Value Added per Annual Work Unit (FNVA per AWU). This paper presents a methodology which estimates FNVA and AWU for Scottish parishes using data from the Farm Accounts Scheme and the June agricultural census. The ratio of FNVA to AWU is then estimated for various aggregations of parishes, such as Scottish Districts, Regions, and areas currently designated for various rural development programmes. Although only one among several important criteria for targeting rural development aid, the pattern of FNVA per AWU generally supports the current allocation of funding. The results also give some indication of priority areas for future targeting on a more local scale.