货币流通速度的变动及其对货币供给的影响

我国货币流通速度变化趋势已经发生改变 货币流通速度是指一年内一定的货币存量为当年国民收入提供资金的次数，即名义GDP除以货币供应量M2。货币流通速度是影响货币需求的重要因素。中央银行制定货币政策目标过程中，需要密切关注货币流通速度的水平和变化趋势，长期以来我国货币流通速度呈明显下降趋势（见图1），货币供给的增长长期持续高于GDP增长率与物价上涨率之和；货币流通速度呈下降趋势的同时，     

切实做好大额支付系统推广运行工作

一、精心组织、按阶段检查指导是做好推广工作的关键自人总行2002年10月召开大额支付系统推广工作会议后,西安分行立即成立了大额支付系统推广工作领导小组,营管部大额支付系统推广工作领导小组多次专门研究布置大额支付系统推广工作,按阶段性工作目标进行检查、指导、通报,使C     

中国货币流通速度问题探析

本文首先分析了货币流通速度的理论基础,根据货币流通速度的方程式以及我国的具体经济数据判断出我国的货币流通速度成不断下降的趋势,然后分析了我国货币流通速度下降的一些原因,认为在货币流通速度下降的背后,我国的经济存在许多亟待改进的问题,最后根据这些问题提出一些具体的建议。     

我国货币流通速度趋势下降原因分析

货币流通速度,是货币经济学中重要且复杂的议题。货币流通速度本身的变化,一方面是宏观经济、金融环境变化的结果,另一方面也反映出经济、金融中的诸多问题。因此,系统、深入研究我国货币流通速度问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文在分析货币流通速度内涵的基础上,分析了我国货币流通速度的变化趋势,重点分析了产生这种下降趋势的原因。     

济南市大额支付系统建设的实践与思考

2002年9月4日,中国人民银行总行召开中国现代化支付系统运行暨推广工作电视会议,标志着支付系统在我国建设推广运行工作拉开了序幕。经过支付系统各参与单位和业务人员近8个月的通力协作和艰苦奋战,2003年4月21日,济南市大额支付系统切换取得圆满成功,顺利投产运行,为大额支付系统下一步在山东省乃至全国的推广应用以及现代化支付系统建设摸索了路子,积累了经验。     

基层央行会计核算工作存在的问题及对策

大额支付系统于2005年6月份在全国正式全面运行,大额支付系统的推广运行加快了资金清算速度,增强了金融机构资金的流动性,提高了社会资金的使用效益,同时也给人民银行的会计核算管理、账务组织、业务处理方法、经营状况及资金流向带来了较大的变化.这些新的变化对会计管理及风险控制提出了新的要求.为此,笔者根据大额支付系统在泰安市的运行情况,对当前大额支付系统存在的风险点进行了初步分析并提出了相应的对策.     

基层央行会计核算工作存在的问题及对策

大额支付系统于2005年6月份在全国正式全面运行,大额支付系统的推广运行加快了资金清算速度,增强了金融机构资金的流动性,提高了社会资金的使用效益,同时也给人民银行的会计核算管理、账务组织、业务处理方法、经营状况及资金流向带来了较大的变化.这些新的变化对会计管理及风险控制提出了新的要求.为此,笔根据大额支付系统在泰安市的运行情况,对当前大额支付系统存在的风险点进行了初步分析并提出了相应的对策.     

我国货币流通速度的变化趋势及原因分析

本文通过统计各项数据,得出1985-2010年的货币流通速度,通过数据分析,总结出我国货币流通速度的基本变化趋势:从长期来看,中国的货币流通速度处于不断下降的趋势,并且下降速度有趋缓的态势,但是在2009年,货币流通速度又出现一个幅度较大的下降。随后本文将从经济货币化、利率、产业结构、地区发展差异四个方面着重分析我国货币流通速度下降的原因,并从金融现代化角度分析货币流速下降幅度趋缓的原因,最后从经济危机导致的GDP下降和居民预防需求增加两个方面解释2009年货币流速大幅下降的原因。     

流动性和风险性的权衡——国外大额支付系统的最新进展及对我国的启示

本文试图通过分析过去的20年大额支付系统LVPS的变化及其原因、世界主要LVPS平衡流动性和风险的政策、各种LVPS存在差异的原因以及大额支付系统LVPS今后发展的趋势,为我国的大额实时支付系统HVPS制定平衡流动性和风险的政策提供建议。     

加强支付系统清算窗口管理的政策建议

大额支付系统在全国推广完成后,由于多方面的原因,清算窗口频繁开启,且开启时间较长,影响了大额支付系统的正常日终处理,并对全国所有支付系统参与者会计营业部门的正常工作秩序造成影响,在一定程度上影响了银行对支付系统的信心。对此,必须采取有效措施,完善支付系统清算窗口的管理。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…