How Does Stock Market React to Dividend Surprises? Evidence from Emerging Markets of India and Russia

In this article the authors empirically investigate information content of dividends announcements and average reaction of emerging markets of India and Russia to dividend surprises on the postcrisis period 2010 to 2014. The study applies an analysts’ expectations-based approach rarely used in academic literature. The authors conclude that the Russian market on average reacts negatively to good and bad dividend surprises; good dividend surprises on average trigger positive abnormal returns on Indian stocks, whereas bad and no surprises are associated with negative reactions of the Indian market. Results of the study are discussed from the perspective of dividend signaling theory, market efficiency, and investor behavior.     

中国上市公司首次股票股利信号传递有效性的实证研究

20世纪90年代中后期股票股利曾是我国证券市场较为盛行的分配方式,并因能够带来积极的股价超额收益而被视为是一种典型的信号传递过程。然而本文通过对A股一般行业上市公司首次股票股利分配后的公司业绩进行长期跟踪考察,发现首次分配股票股利的公司无论盈利性或增长能力都明显持续下降,并不能充分支持信号传递假说。统计检验和模型分析均表明,在信息不对称条件下,公司盲目追求股权融资和市场过热的投资预期,在一定程度上削弱了我国股票股利政策传递积极信号的功能,这是这种分配方式不断降温的内在原因。     

股利政策信息结构与股价行为研究

通过构建股利政策信息结构和时空两维股利信息模型,研究中国上市公司不同股利政策的信息结构、信息环境及其对波动性、市场深度和流动性等股价行为的影响。研究发现现金股利政策公告前,没有发现显著的信息性交易行为;股票股利政策公告前后,市场信息结构没有发生显著的变化;不分配利润的企业在公告前,出现了显著的由信息引起的交易行为;公司发布股利政策不仅能够传递公司价值的信息,而且公司价值信息的传递还与市场所处的信息环境密切相关,不同的信息环境、信息结构影响了信息作用于市场变量的变化路径。     

中国上市公司股利变动与经营业绩相关性分析

用2000—2004年间现金股利变动的中国上市公司为样本,考察公司股利变动与经营业绩之间的关系,实证结果表明:增加股利和首次发放股利的公司在公告前两年收益增加,在公告后两年收益减小;而减小和停发股利的公司情况正好相反。中国上市公司的股利政策主要是依据过去和当前的经营业绩而不是未来预期的经营业绩,实证结果与股利信号假设预测不一致。进一步检验发现,尽管短期内市场对股利增加公告有正面反应,对股利减小有负面反应,但市场对股利公告的长期反应与短期反应截然相反。     

Are sports sponsorship announcements good news for shareholders? A meta-analysis

The number of studies on the marketing–finance interface has escalated in response to increased interest in the value of marketing investments, such as sports sponsorship. This study integrates current research findings and establishes empirical generalizations on how sports sponsorship announcements impact firm value. The empirical literature finds contradicting results on the value shareholders place on these marketing investments. This paper addresses this issue by undertaking a meta-analysis on stock reactions to sport sponsorship announcements, using 3192 of these announcements taken from 36 studies (41 samples). On aggregate, these announcements drew the attention of shareholders since there was a positive and significant cumulative abnormal return (CAR). However, this positive effect was mostly observed in the 1990s and became negative in the 2000s. Overall, shareholders viewed sports sponsorship investments favorably when there was a functional and geographical congruence between sponsors and sponsees. This paper also shows that the differences in the CAR can be explained by controlling for confounding events and host country. The paper concludes by providing potential avenues for further research in sports sponsorship, using the event study method.     

The value of celebrity endorsements: A stock market perspective

Are celebrity endorsements worthwhile investments in advertising? To answer this question, we analyze a unique sample of 101 announcements made between 1996 and 2008 by firms listed in the USA. Internet is the main medium of communication for these announcements. We employ event study methodology and document statistically insignificant abnormal returns around the announcement dates. This finding is consistent with the notion that the incremental benefits from celebrity endorsements closely match the incremental costs due to such contracts. Further, we investigate if the announcement date return depends on a number of characteristics that are often used in the endorsement literature. As a result, we find that endorsements of technology industry products coincide with significant positive abnormal returns around the announcement dates. Finally, we find weak support for the match-up hypothesis between celebrities and endorsed products.     

会计盈余信息含量与股利信息含量关系的实证研究

2001年以后,我国证券市场制度建设不断推进,对投资者利益的保护日益受到广泛重视,上市公司的现金股利政策发生了显著变化。同时,我国上市公司的盈利信息和股利信息是同时公布的,因此有必要对上市公司的现金股利信息含量,以及会计盈余信息含量与股利信息含量的确证效应进行检验。实证结果发现:现金股利的变动与股价变动正相关,股利信息具有信息含量;盈利信息与股利信息之间具有一定的确证效应,但投资者不能根据股利信息判断企业未来盈利状况。     

Stock Market Reaction to Quality,Safety, and Sustainability Awards in Logistics

Although quality, safety, and sustainability are important concerns in logistics, managers are sometimes reluctant to invest in these areas because it is not always clear how such investments will benefit firm performance. Empirical literature provides little guidance in the context of logistics as previous studies report mixed findings across a diverse set of industries, which may not be directly applicable to logistics. To address this gap, we conducted an event study to estimate the stock market reaction to quality, safety, and sustainability award announcements in logistics. Based on 244 award announcements during the period 2004–13, we found that stock market participants react positively to announcements of these awards. The market reaction appears to be stronger for sustainability awards than for quality and safety awards. Our results also suggest that the market reacts more favorably to quality and sustainability award announcements for firms with better past financial performance and for smaller firms.     

The Effect of Timeliness and Credit Ratings on the Information Content of Earnings Announcements

This paper investigates the impact of timeliness and credit ratings on the information content of the earnings announcements of Greek listed firms from 2001 to 2008. Using the classical event study methodology and regression analysis, we find that firms tend to release good news on time and are inclined to delay the release of bad news. We also provide evidence that the level of corporate risk differentiates the information content of earnings according to the credit rating category. Specifically, firms displaying high creditworthiness enjoy positive excess returns on earnings announcement dates. In contrast, firms with low creditworthiness undergo significant share price erosions on earnings announcement days. We also observe a substitution effect between timeliness and credit ratings in relation to the information content of earnings announcements. Specifically, we find that as the credit category of earnings-announcing firms improves, the informational role of timeliness is mitigated.     

Stock price reactions to Sino-European joint ventures

Do European investments in China create shareholders’ value? The question is posed, but does not ask for a definite answer. Many factors have to be considered when analyzing the valuation effect of European direct investment in China and its determinants. The aim of this article is to better understand the real impact of the Sino-European joint venture announcements on the stock market value of the European partners. First of all, on the basis of an event study methodology, this article presents empirical observations of the share price reactions in different European stock markets to 68 Sino-European joint venture announcements.     

我国上市公司股利政策信息内涵的实证研究

股利政策是现代公司理财的三大核心内容之一,它是公司融资、投资活动的延续,是其理财行为的必然结果。本文采用事件研究法对我国上市公司股利政策的信息内涵进行实证研究,以1997-2004年度上海证券交易所上市的A股股票的股利分配行为为研究对象,考察我国上市公司的股利政策是否传递了信息、传递了怎样的信息这两个方面的内容;同时,针对不同的股利支付方式进行了信息传递的敏感性测试。     

Corporate Governance,Dividend Status,Ownership Structure,and the Performance of Greek Seasoned Equity Offerings

We examine the short-term and long-term share-price behaviour surrounding the announcement of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by firms listed on the Athens Stock Exchange. (ASE) The idiosyncrasies of the ASE make for an interesting investigation of SEO announcements in relation to the effect of corporate governance mechanisms, ownership structure, and dividend-paying status. We examine changes in leverage and systematic risk, as well as the long-term share price and operating performance of those firms involved in a SEO. We report significant share-price appreciations on SEO announcement day. We find a share-price rally before the announcement of SEOs and subsequent share-price reversals. Our results suggest that corporate governance structures, dividend status, and ownership concentration enhance the information content of SEOs. Finally, we report evidence that the long-term operating performance and the capital structure of firms announcing a SEO deteriorates for up to two years following the announcement.     

机构投资者对现金股利影响的实证分析

机构投资者和现金股利被认为具有保护投资者利益的功能,但现有文献缺乏对机构投资者和现金股利关系的分析。利用2001—2009年上市公司数据进行实证分析,结果表明:机构投资者数量和信息披露对现金股利有显著性正面影响,而个人投资者数量对现金股利有显著性负面影响,说明机构投资者有股利偏好行为,信息披露有强化股利信号的传递功能。实证结果还表明,机构投资者的数量比所有权对现金股利有更重要的影响。     

Dividend‐Rollover Effect and the Ad Hoc Black‐Scholes Model

One of the most widely used option‐valuation models among practitioners is the ad hoc Black‐Scholes (AHBS) model. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We carefully consider three dividend strategies (No dividend, Implied‐forward dividend, and Actual dividend) for the AHBS model to investigate their effect on pricing errors. We suggest a new dividend strategy, implied‐forward dividend, which incorporates expectational information on dividends embedded in option prices. We demonstrate that our implied‐forward dividend strategy produces more consistent estimates between in‐sample market and model option prices. More importantly our new implied‐forward dividend strategy makes more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts for one‐day or one‐week ahead prices. Second, we document that both a “Return‐volatility” Smile and a “Return‐pricing Error” Smile exist. From these return characteristics, we make two conclusions: (1) the return dependency of implied volatility is an important explanatory variable and should be controlled to reduce the pricing error of an AHBS model, and (2) it is important for the hedging horizon to be based on return size, that is, the larger the contemporaneous return, the more frequent an option issuer must rebalance the option's hedge. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:742‐772, 2012     

The Effect of New Product Announcements and Preannouncements on Stock Price

Previous event studies which deal with new products do notdistinguish between preannouncements (made in advance of a new productintroduction into the marketplace) and new product announcements (made closeto the time when the new product is introduced). Methodologically, eventstudies implicitly assume that information is homogeneous; that is, they donot consider the amount of information contained in the news release or thetype (e.g., whether detailed or not). This paper argues that new productevent studies should distinguish between announcements and preannouncementsbecause both types of information release events (IRE) are strategicallydistinct and convey different information signals to the marketplace.Methodologically, event studies should allow for informationalheterogeneity. We analyze a large sample of IREs from the 1980–1989period for firms whose stock is publicly traded, distinguishing betweenpreannouncements and announcements. We use content analysis to classify IREsaccording to the type and amount of information provided. The results showthat it is incorrect to jointly analyze announcements and preannouncements.On average, only preannouncements have a significant positive effect onstock prices. However, the signaling effect of preannouncements on stockprice is industry-specific. In particular, the results support Klein andLefflers theory (1981) that preannouncements in the manufacturing industryare effective strategic tools. We also investigate the impact of IREs onthe market risk (i.e., the risk that stockholders cannot diversify away) ofthe announcing and preannouncing firms. The results show that firm-specificand informational variables do not have any effect on market risk,regardless of the type of IRE (i.e., announcement or preannouncement).     

Dividend Policy and Informativeness of Reported Earnings: Evidence from the MENA Region

This paper documents that informativeness of reported earnings, measured by earnings–return relation, is an increasing function of dividend payout ratio in the Middle East and North Africa region during the period between 2003 and 2014. We argue that higher dividends reduce agency conflicts. Lower agency problems lead firms to disclose information more truthfully, thereby improving credibility of reported earnings. We also show that our results hold for various proxies of dividend policy.     

低现金股利政策、股东财富与控股股东决策

根据Jensen的自有现金流量假说,在不考虑股票回购条件下,将公司支付的现金股利数量低于自由现金流量定义为低现金股利政策.研究显示,低现金股利政策不利于股东财富最大化,在低现金股利政策范围内,提高现金股利会提高股东财富.但从控股股东财富最大化出发,实施低现金股利政策有助于实现其获取控制权私有收益以本身的财富最大化.     

Turn‐of‐the‐month and intramonth effects: Explanation from the important macroeconomic news announcements

This study provides a new and economically plausible explanation for turn‐of‐the‐month and intramonth anomalies. It is suggested that these anomalies arise from clustered information, namely from important macroeconomic news announcements, which are released systematically at a certain point each month. It is verified that both anomalies exist in SP100 returns. However, once the effect of macroeconomic news announcements has been taken into account, these anomalies disappear. A measure is proposed which uses information from option‐implied volatilities to account for the changes in expected risk premium caused by news announcements. This measure is found to capture incompletely the effects of news announcements, which may due to the misreactions observed on the options market or alternative explanations, such as increased liquidity or investors' overreaction resulting in higher realized returns. Consequently, the underlying mechanism remains to some extent inconclusive although the empirical results provide strong support for the macroeconomic news announcement hypothesis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:105–126, 2007     

民营上市公司现金股利信号传递效应实证研究

系统考察股利分配预案公告日我国民营上市公司现金股利信息的信号传递效应,并在研究方法上对我国当前该领域研究中所存在的缺陷进行了弥补。在严格控制了盈余信息、公司规模等因素后,分别对2001-2003年度我国民营上市公司股利分配预案公告日前后样本(除送、配方案之外)的“纯”现金股利分配预案的市场反应进行了分析。结果发现,股利分配预案公告日前后,民营上市公司发放现金股利并没有受到市场排斥,其超常收益显著为正。     

Are speculators informed?

The positions of hedgers and speculators are correlated with returns in a number of futures markets, but there is much debate as to the interpretation of such a relationship—whether it reflects private information, liquidity, or trend‐chasing behavior. This paper studies the relationship between positioning of hedgers and speculators and returns in equity futures markets. I propose a novel test of the private information hypothesis: analyzing the effect of public announcements about futures positions on prices, using high‐frequency data in short windows around the announcements. I find that the revelation of speculators' positions is informative to investors more broadly, supporting the private information view. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark