Cross-border banking,credit access,and the financial crisis

We study the sensitivity of credit supply to bank financial conditions in 16 emerging European countries before and during the financial crisis. We use survey data on 10,701 applicant and non-applicant firms that enable us to disentangle effects driven by positive and negative shocks to the banking system from demand shocks that may vary across lenders. We find strong evidence that firms' access to credit was affected by changes in the financial conditions of their banks. During the crisis firms were more credit constrained if they were dealing with banks that experienced a decline in equity and Tier 1 capital, as well as losses on financial assets. We also find that access to credit reflects the balance sheet conditions of foreign parent banks. The effect of positive and negative shocks to a bank is greater for riskier firms and firms with fewer tangible assets.     

基于应收账款行为的财务困境公司管理行为分析

本文以应收账款行为为观察视角,采用我国上市公司1996-2008年的数据进行了实证研究,发现财务困境对应收账款具有显著负效应,即困境中的企业被迫减少了在应收账款上的投资;在通货膨胀较高时,财务困境对应收账款的影响不显著;华东、华南和东北地区的企业在困境时显著减少了应收账款,西北地区困境企业的应收账款不减反增,而华北、华中和西南地区的上市公司,财务困境与应收账款之间没有显著相关性。     

Trade Credit,Bank Credit,and Flight to Quality: Evidence from French SMEs

This paper investigates the impact of the global financial crisis on the allocation of credit to small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). Using samples of French SMEs from four industries, we found support for the prediction of the flight‐to‐quality hypothesis that in bad times, credit flows away from smaller constrained firms to larger, higher grade firms. We also examined the relation between bank credit and trade credit in terms of two hypotheses: the substitution hypothesis and the complementary hypothesis. The results of fixed effects panel regressions showed that trade credit for small firms during periods of tight money acts generally as complement rather than substitute to bank credit, thus providing empirical support for the redistribution view of trade credit.     

Trade credit and bank finance: Financing small firms in russia

This paper argues that Russian financial markets are more developed than typically supposed. I show that non-financial firms, suppliers of credit to other firms, support the role of financial intermediaries in helping to surmount problems of information asymmetries. Trade credit works as a signal; firms receiving it obtain access to bank loans. I test this hypothesis using data from my survey of 352 firms in Russia in 1995. Firms using trade credit are shown to have a higher probability of acquiring bank credit.     

The Choice between Bank Debt and Trace Credit in Business Start-ups

This paper investigates the choice between bank debt and trade credit in business start-ups. While trade credit is more expensive than bank debt, suppliers tend to follow a more lenient liquidation policy when client firms encounter financial distress. As a result, suppliers are more willing to renegotiate the outstanding debt or grant additional debt whereas banks are more likely to liquidate borrowers upon default. Given the risky nature of business start-ups, we argue that the entrepreneur’s choice of debt instruments reflects these differences in liquidation policy between lenders and is thus determined by the venture’s failure risk, the entrepreneur’s private control benefits that are lost upon liquidation and the liquidation value of firm assets. Using unique data on 325 first-time business start-ups, we find that firms in industries with high historical start-up failure rates and entrepreneurs who tend to highly value private benefits of control use less bank debt. These effects are especially prevalent in start-ups where assets have a high liquidation value and thus banks are more likely to liquidate the venture following default. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Long-term debt maturity and financing constraints of SMEs during the Global Financial Crisis

We use the recent financial crisis to investigate financing constraints of private small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Belgium. We hypothesize that SMEs with a large proportion of long-term debt maturing at the start of the crisis had difficulties to renew their loans due to the negative credit supply shock, and hence could invest less. We find a substantial variation in the maturity structure of long-term debt. Firms which at the start of the crisis had a larger part of their long-term debt maturing within the next year experienced a significantly larger drop in investments in 2009. This effect is driven by firms which are ex ante more likely to be financially constrained. Consistent with a causal effect of a credit supply shock to corporate investments, we find no effect in “placebo” periods without a negative credit supply shock.     

Debt source choices and stock market performance of Russian firms during the financial crisis

This paper examines the relationship between stock returns and the sources of corporate debt during the financial crisis of 2008. In particular, using data on large-capitalization Russian firms, we investigate whether dependence on either bank debt or bonds affected stock returns during the credit crunch. Our results indicate that the firms which rely entirely on bank debt significantly outperformed the firms with public debt amidst the crisis. This finding suggests that bank debt may be particularly valuable in harsh times. However, we also document that the stock prices of the bank dependent firms recovered more slowly in the post-crisis period.     

“Lending by example”: Direct and indirect effects of foreign banks in emerging markets

Using a novel dataset that allows us to trace the bank relationships of a sample of mostly unlisted firms, we explore which borrowers are able to benefit from foreign bank presence in emerging markets. Our results suggest that the limits to financial integration are less tight than the static picture of firm-bank relationships implies. Even though foreign banks are more likely to engage large and foreign-owned firms, after an acquisition, a bank is 20% less likely to terminate a relationship with a firm if the acquirer is foreign rather than domestic. Most importantly, within a credit market, firms appear to have the same access to financial loans and ability to invest whether they borrow from a foreign bank or not, while foreign banks benefit all firms by indirectly enhancing credit access.     

Does Trade Credit Affect Technical Efficiency? Empirical Evidence from Italian Manufacturing SMEs

Using firm‐level data from the Italian manufacturing sector, we investigate the relationship between small and medium‐sized firms technical efficiency and trade credit. Our contribution is twofold: we provide evidence on an open empirical question, and disentangle the channels through which trade credit may influence firms' efficiency. According to our findings, based on the Simar and Wilson (2007) procedure, trade credit seems to positively affect firm efficiency by mitigating financial constraints. Indeed, trade credit enhances efficiency especially for firms that are more likely to be financially constrained (i.e., smaller and/or younger firms) and during the most recent financial crisis.     

The trade credit channel revisited: evidence from micro data of Japanese small firms

It is suggested that trade credit can be a substitute for bank loans for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that have little access to external funding sources. Using unique cross-sectional survey data of Japanese SMEs, we conduct a deep investigation into the substitutability between bank loans and trade credit. This survey contains rich information on the suppliers of trade credit to SMEs, thus enabling the examination of the channel through which credit is provided from suppliers to customers. We find that SMEs with little access to bank credit depend more on large suppliers for trade credit. We also find that when a purchase is made from a large supplier, more credit is indeed provided in the form of trade credit. Furthermore, this channel of credit from large suppliers to SMEs is only observed for solvent customers, not for insolvent customers. Our findings suggest that trade credit plays an important role for entrepreneurial firms over the financial growth cycle. For young and small firms with little access to bank loans trade credit is an important funding source.     

Supply Chains,Global Financial Shocks and Firm Behaviour towards Liquidity Needs

Driven by the increasingly important role of supply chains in global production, this paper studies empirical association between global credit‐market shocks and firm behaviour towards liquidity needs across countries and industries. Focusing on the adjustment of working‐capital financing, we find two pieces of supporting evidence from international firm‐level panel data covering the period 2002:I–2012:IV. First, for industries where specific investment in the input supplier–customer relationship is large, firms are more exposed to credit‐market shocks. We find that measures of global credit‐market shocks are negatively associated with trade receivables, trade payables and inventories, conditional on the level of contract intensity in the industries where firms operate. Second, firms in emerging markets are more vulnerable to credit‐market shocks than are firms in developed countries. We are also able to verify the economic significance of sales growth, operating cash flows, cash stock and firm size in the overall adjustment. Our findings highlight the importance of balance‐sheet contagion along supply chains during the 2007–09 global financial crisis.     

Defaults in bank loans to SMEs during the financial crisis

We investigate the role of (business) collateral and (personal) guarantees alongside small and medium enterprise (SME), lending bank and loan characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, sectors, and geographic locations while controlling for unobserved time effects in predicting default at the peak of the financial crisis. First, we find a positive relation between collateral and default, and a negative relation between guarantees and default. Second, we find a negative relation between the joint influence of collateral and high credit score, and a positive relation between the joint influence of collateral and low credit score and default. We also find a negative relation between the joint influence of guarantees and high credit score. These findings are relevant for SME policies aimed at facilitating access to credit, reducing the cost of borrowing, and decreasing default; risk management of banks; and the application of theories of financial economics in the context of a financial crisis.     

Households' Decisions on Savings Accounts After Negative Experiences with Banks During the Financial Crisis

During the 2007–2008 financial crisis, consumers in many countries were suddenly confronted with the fact that their bank needed government support or had even failed. Using a detailed survey among households in the Netherlands, we show how these unexpected negative experiences have changed consumers' handling of their savings accounts. Our findings suggest that respondents who were customers of troubled banking institutions were subsequently more likely to spread their savings across accounts at several banks. They were also more likely to move funds across banks. Our results also suggest that the size of the shock is important as the strongest effects are found for respondents who experienced both a bank bailout and a bankruptcy.     

Financing patterns in transition economies: Privatized former SOEs versus ab initio private firms

We employ 37,987 firms in 30 transition economies to investigate the relation between the origins of private firms and their financing patterns. We find that relative to ab initio (from the beginning) private firms, privatized former state-owned enterprises (SOEs) finance a higher proportion of their fixed assets from bank finance (especially from state-owned banks) and supplier credit. We argue that privatized former SOEs continue to benefit from the political and financial connections established during their SOE era. We document that country governance, financial development and legal origins play an important role in the financing patterns of privatized versus private firms.     

Bank Loan Announcements and Borrower Stock Returns: Does Bank Origin Matter?

Banks play a special role as providers of informative signals about the quality and value of their borrowers. Such signals, however, may have a quality of their own as the banks' selection and monitoring abilities may differ. Using an event study methodology, we study the importance of the geographical origin and organization of the banks for the investors' assessments of firms' credit quality and economic worth following loan announcements. Our sample comprises 986 announcements of bank loans to US firms over the period of 1980–2003. We find that investors react positively to such announcements if the loans are made by foreign or local banks, but not if the loans are made by banks that are located outside the firm's headquarters state. Investor reaction is, in fact, the largest when the bank is foreign. Our evidence suggest that investors value relationships with more competitive and skilled banks rather than banks that have easier access to private information about the firms. These results are applicable also to the European markets where regulatory and economic borders do not coincide and bank identities and reputation seem to matter a great deal.     

Fiscal risk and financial fragility

We propose a new methodology to evaluate the importance of fiscal risk to financial stability. We first develop a method to estimate the probability of non-compliance of public entities, which takes into account the strict legal framework that is mandatory for governments. While in our model the evolution of public entities' revenues is stochastic and heavily depends on expectations about macroeconomic risk factors, the evolution of their personnel expenses and debt is rather deterministic due to the stickiness of the regulation. We then estimate the resilience of the financial sector to the public sector by simulating bank credit defaults in a multilayer network with interacting agents comprising banks, firms, and the public entities. Using Brazilian data at the state level, we establish a statistical link between states' probability of non-compliance and probability of default, enabling us to estimate the expected impact of the public sector in terms of financial losses on the economy. We find that, while most Brazilian states are struggling to comply with budget legal constraints on personnel expenses, the richest states are more likely to not comply with limits on their consolidated debts. We show that financial contagion is small mostly because banks that are more exposed to the public sector are highly capitalized.     

The Financial Structure of Private Held Belgian Firms

We examine the determinants of the debt-equity choice and the debt maturity choice for a sample of small, privately held firms in a creditor oriented environment. Our results, which are based on 4,706 firm-year observations for 1132 Belgian firms in the period 1996–2000, generally confirm the role of asymmetric information and agency costs of debt as major determinants of the financial structure of privately held firms. High growth firms and firms with less tangible assets have a lower debt ratio. We also find that more profitable firms have less debt. Firms tend to match the maturity of debt with the maturity of their assets. Growth options do not seem to influence debt maturity, which would suggest that the underinvestment problem is resolved by lowering leverage and by bank monitoring, not by reducing debt maturity. Credit risk is also an important determinant of debt maturity: firms with higher credit risk borrow more on the short term. Finally, in contrast to most studies on the financial structure of companies, we find that larger firms tend to have a higher debt ratio and a shorter debt maturity.      

Can Firms Grow Without Credit? A Quantile Panel Analysis in the Euro Area

This paper explores the effects of changes in bank credit on firm growth before and after the recent global financial crisis, taking into account firm-specific and country-specific characteristics as well as structural characteristics of domestic banking sectors. Panel quantile analysis is used on a sample of 2075 euro area firms in 2005–2011, enabling thus the identification of potential differences in the dynamics between high-growth and low-growth firms. The post-2008 credit crunch is found to seriously affect mostly high-leveraged, low-growth firms operating in concentrated banking systems with weak foreign presence, and in riskier and less financially developed European economies. By contrast, high-growth firms are not affected and, thus, may be expected to facilitate and sustain the post-crisis credit-less recovery in the euro area. A policy implication of our findings is that creating the right conditions for the emergence of innovative high-growth firms may be a more effective growth strategy, especially in adverse times, as compared to a general policy covering all types of firms.     

The Next Frontier of Mobile Money Adoption

In this article, I explore the characteristics of businesses that use mobile money by using the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys Program data set for the year 2013. I study firms in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. My analysis shows that small firms are more likely to use the service than medium and large firms. Also, older firms are more likely to use the service than younger ones. Moreover, firms with bank accounts are more likely to use the service. Finally, firms in Kenya are more likely to use the service than firms in Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia.     

Small Business Borrowing and the Bifurcated Economy: Why Quantitative Easing Has Been Ineffective for Small Business

In the early years following the financial collapse, federal officials and others believed that banks were not making loans to creditworthy small firms, who have accounted for most of the job creation in the United States in recent decades. Acting on this belief, a number of programs were created to increase bank lending to small firms. Overall, however, the data collected since the 2007/8 financial crisis suggest that the explanation for slow loan growth in the small business sector is not a result of supply constraints but rather a result of anemic loan demand among small firms. Thus, recent programs intended to increase small business borrowing through easing credit supply were doomed to fail. The weak demand for credit among small firms is representative of the sluggish performance of the small business economy postrecession, a marked contrast to the robust performance of larger firms and a reflection of a bifurcated economy.