The external returns to education: Evidence from Chinese cities

Following Rauch's seminal study, there has been a growing interest among economists in estimating human capital externalities at the individual level [J. Rauch, Productivity gains from geographic concentration of human capital: Evidence from the cities, Journal of Urban Economics 34 (1993) 380–400]. In this paper, we provide a first set of estimates of the external returns to education in Chinese cities. We find that the external returns are at least as high as the private returns to education. OLS estimates of the external returns range from a low of 4.9% to a high of 6.7%. Two-stage least squares estimates indicate that a one-year increase in city average education could increase individual earnings by between 11 and 13%. We also examine the impact of economic reforms on the external returns to education and find suggestive evidence that economic reforms have raised the external returns to education in Chinese cities.     

The structure of wages during the economic transition in Romania

I use cross-sectional individual data from the 1994 Integrated Household Survey (IHS) of Romania to analyze the determinants of male and female wages in public and private enterprises. Using quantile regression I estimate the rate of return to education and experience at different quantiles of the wage distribution. Higher levels of education are significantly associated with higher wages for both males and females in public firms. In private firms, only college education is correlated with significantly higher wages. I also find that there are no significant differences in the returns to human capital at the median and at the upper and lower tail of the distribution of gender-specific wages in each sector. Differences in individual characteristics are found to explain the highest portion of the male–female wage differential in Romania in both sectors.     

Heterogeneous economic returns to higher education: evidence from Italy

This paper uses official Italian micro data and different methods to estimate, in the framework of potential outcomes, the marginal return to college education allowing for heterogeneous returns and for self-selection into higher education. Specifically, the paper is focused on the estimation of heterogeneity of average treatment effect (ATE) on a cohort of college and high school graduates using the 2008 survey on household, income and wealth of the Bank of Italy. Methodologically, this study was carried out by using both propensity-score-based (PS-based) methods and a new approach based on marginal treatment effects (MTE), recently proposed by Heckman and his associates as a useful strategy when the ignorability assumption may be violated. In the PS-based approach, heterogeneous treatment effects are estimated in three different manners: the traditional stratification approach (propensity score strata), the regression adjustment within propensity score strata and, finally, a non-parametric smoothing approach. In the MTE approach, the treatment effect heterogeneity across individuals is estimated in a parametric as well as a semi-parametric strategy. Our empirical analysis shows that the estimated heterogeneity is substantial: following MTE based results (quite representative of other methods) the return to college graduation for a randomly selected individual varies from as high as 20 % (for persons who would add one fifth of wage from graduating college) to as low as ?22 % (for persons who would lose from college graduation), suggesting that returns are higher for individuals more likely to attend college. Furthermore, the results of different methods show very low (point) estimates of ATE: average college returns vary from 3.5 % by the PS-smoothing method to 1.8 % by the parametric MTE method, which also leads a greater treatment effect on treated (5.5 %), a moderate, but significant sorting gain and a negligible selection bias.     

The effects of families and ability on men's education and earnings in Britain

The paper estimates the returns to education for a cohort of men born in Britain in March 1958 who have been followed since birth until the age of 33. The data used has a wealth of information on family background including parental education, social class and interest shown in the child's education as well as measures of ability. These variables are typically missing in studies looking at the returns to schooling. In the paper, we find that the average return to an additional year of full-time education for the UK men is somewhere around 5 1/2% to 6% even after correcting for the effects of measurement error. The paper also presents evidence that the returns to an additional year of schooling in the UK are heterogeneous. In particular, the paper finds some evidence that men with lower tastes for education, have significantly higher marginal returns to education. The results of the paper suggest that recent IV estimates of the returns to schooling in the UK, which exceed typical OLS estimates, may overestimate the average marginal return for the population of men as a whole.     

The robustness of calendar anomalies in daily stock returns

This paper investigates the robustness of the major calendar anomalies in stock returns with respect to the choice of return measure, estimation procedure, and time period. For daily returns from 1972 to 1994, the size and statistical significance of the anomalies differ more across return measure than across estimation procedure. For the returns on small-firm stocks, there is robust evidence of weekend effects, pre-holiday effects, and January effects. For the returns on large-firm stocks, calendar anomalies are weaker and essentially disappear after 1986.     

Rate of return analysis and economies of scale in higher education

This paper presents the results of a study of the rate of return on undergraduate education at the University of Bradford, United Kingdom, and compares them with returns calculated independently for the U.K. university system as a whole. Rates of return are measured for separate undergraduate courses and considerable variation is shown, courses in science and technology generally having lower return because of their higher costs. Private returns to the individual graduate are shown to be substantially greater than those to society as a whole. The government's return, in the form of increased tax receipts is shown to be positive. Further results demonstrate increasing marginal rates of return to society as a result of the economies of scale associated with the expansion of enrolment planned for the decade 1971–1981. The problems involved in projecting rates of return into the future are considered.The paper is directed to teachers and students of the economics of education.     

Changes in urban land values: 1836–1970

A model is developed for measuring the return to holding land and those returns are examined using a random coefficient estimation procedure for specific periods from 1836 to 1970. This statistical model provides a mean rate of return for land and a predictor for each time period. The results suggest that the long-term return to holding land is no higher than the rate of return to holding high-grade bonds. For shorter holding periods, the returns vary significantly.     

Research Investment and the Economic Returns To Chinese Agricultural Research

This article measureseconomic returns to research investment in Chinese agricultureusing the production function approach. A stock-of-knowledgevariable constructed from the past research investment is directlyincluded in the production function as an explanatory variablein the production function. Improved rural infrastructure, irrigation,and education are also included as explanatory variables to avoidthe upward bias in the estimates of returns to agricultural research.A two-way variable coefficients technique is used in the estimationto reduce estimation biases due to the remaining measurementand omitted variables problems. Sensitivity analyses are conductedto test the effects of various lag structures on the return estimates.The results show that rates of return to research investmentin Chinese agriculture are high, ranging from 36% to 90% in1997, and the rates are increasing over time.     

Bayesian inference in a correlated random coefficients model: Modeling causal effect heterogeneity with an application to heterogeneous returns to schooling

We consider the problem of causal effect heterogeneity from a Bayesian point of view. This is accomplished by introducing a three-equation system, similar in spirit to the work of Heckman and Vytlacil (1998), describing the joint determination of a scalar outcome, an endogenous “treatment” variable, and an individual-specific causal return to that treatment. We describe a Bayesian posterior simulator for fitting this model which recovers far more than the average causal effect in the population, the object which has been the focus of most previous work. Parameter identification and generalized methods for flexibly modeling the outcome and return heterogeneity distributions are also discussed.Combining data sets from High School and Beyond (HSB) and the 1980 Census, we illustrate our methods in practice and investigate heterogeneity in returns to education. Our analysis decomposes the impact of key HSB covariates on log wages into three parts: a “direct” effect and two separate indirect effects through educational attainment and returns to education. Our results strongly suggest that the quantity of schooling attained is determined, at least in part, by the individual’s own return to education. Specifically, a one percentage point increase in the return to schooling parameter is associated with the receipt of (approximately) 0.14 more years of schooling. Furthermore, when we control for variation in returns to education across individuals, we find no difference in predicted schooling levels for men and women. However, women are predicted to attain approximately 1/4 of a year more schooling than men on average as a result of higher rates of return to investments in education.     

A review of estimates of the schooling/earnings relationship, with tests for publication bias

In this paper we provide an analytical review of previous estimates of the rate of return on schooling investments and measure how these estimates vary by country, over time, and by estimation method. We find evidence of reporting (or “file drawer”) bias in the estimates and, after due account is taken of this bias, we find that differences due to estimation method are much smaller than is sometimes reported, although some are statistically significant. We also find that estimated returns are higher in the US and they have increased in the last two decades.     

The dynamic investment and exit decisions of venture capitals

This study develops a continuous time model to examine a complete two-stage decision process for venture capitals (VCs), including investment in the private market at Stage 1 and exit through IPO in the public market at Stage 2. Optimal timings, investment terms, and exit decisions are investigated using the real options game theory under two cases: the same required returns in the public and private markets and a higher required return in the private market than in the public market. Our results indicate that the same required returns in the public and private markets generate an optimal investment decision at Stage 1 without relation to the exit decision in Stage 2. However, when the required return in the private market is higher than that in the public market, the exit decision will influence the investment decision. The size of the initial capital, ownership structure, growth rate and risk of industry, required returns in public and private capital markets, extent of lock-up period price pressure, and transaction costs of financing are important factors influencing the equilibrium results.     

Alternative estimation method of earnings growth rate for PEGR strategy

The ambiguous return pattern for the PEGR (the ratio of the stock’s price/earnings to its estimated earnings growth rate) strategy has been documented in literature for the US stock markets. As stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) are objective data, earnings growth rate, however, is estimated by analyst whose method partial explains the PEGR vague return pattern. The purpose of this study is not to deny or substitute analysts’ estimation, but rather, to provide a simple and popular method, log-linear regression model, to forecast the earnings growth rate (G), and examine whether the typical PEGR effect, such as PER (price/earnings ratio) or PBR (price/book ratio) effect, exists by using our alternative estimation method. Our evidence indeed shows that returns on the lowest PEGR portfolio not only dominate over all higher PEGR portfolios, but also beat the market with stochastic dominance (SD) analysis, which is consistent with our prediction. Our results, at least, imply that using the log-linear regression model to construct the PEGR-sorted portfolios can benefit investors and the model is also a good choice for analysts in their forecasting.     

Returns to education and wages in Turkey: robust and resistant regression

In this study, we follow the human capital theory for wage determination and analyze the differentials in returns to education, returns to experience and gender wage gap using usual mincerian wage equation by using OLS, robust and resistant regressions. This study presents evidence on the returns to education in Turkey. The results clearly show that for female employees, education to returns is higher than for male employees. When the results of returns to experience have been studied, it is observed that males definitely have a higher return than females in the years 2003 and 2006.     

Measuring the Returns to Networking and the Accumulation of Social Capital: Any Evidence of Bonding,Bridging, or Linking?

This article presents analyses of individual investment in social capital using both the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the UK Time Use Survey (2000) (UKTUS). We suggest a general theoretical framework that could possibly explain individual investment in various forms of social networking. Measures of social capital are then constructed in an attempt to capture the extent of individual investment in bonding, bridging, and linking networks. These measures, together with other socioeconomic indicators, are used as explanatory factors in wage equations, estimated using ordered probit, OLS, and instrumental variable approaches. We are unable to identify any consistent returns from investment in bonding and bridging networks. In contrast, the evidence suggests that any returns to investment in the development of linking social capital simply derive from the positive signals that group membership may transmit to potential employers. Our results underline the contrast between studies that consider social capital as an attribute of communities, as opposed to individuals, in that we find a negative return to social activity at the level of the individual.     

EDUCATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP SELECTION AND PERFORMANCE: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Abstract This paper provides a review of empirical studies into the impact of formal schooling on entrepreneurship selection and performance in industrial countries. We describe the main effects found in the literature, we explain the variance in results across almost a hundred studies, and we put the empirical results in the context of related economic theory and the much further developed literature in labor economics (studying the rate of return to education among wage employees). Five main conclusions result from this meta‐analysis. First, the impact of education on selection into entrepreneurship is insignificant. Second, the effect of education on performance is positive and significant. Third, the return to a marginal year of schooling is 6.1% for an entrepreneur. Fourth, the effect of education on earnings is smaller for entrepreneurs than for employees in Europe, but larger in the USA. Fifth, the returns to schooling in entrepreneurship are higher in the USA than in Europe, higher for females than for males, and lower for non‐whites or immigrants. In conclusion, we offer a number of suggestions to move the research frontier in this area of inquiry. The entrepreneurship literature on education can benefit from the technical sophistication used to estimate the returns to schooling for employees.     

中国股市的最大值效应

本文证实我国股市的投资者们长期存在对股票历史业绩的反应过度现象。我们发现历史上拥有最高收益率的股票在之后业绩都表现不佳。其主要原因是我国股市的投资者们在做投资选择时都遵循一条简单的规则:即在其他条件都相同的情况下,选择拥有最高的历史收益率的股票进行投资。集中投资使拥有最高的历史收益率的股票被过高评价,导致其后来的业绩表现要比那些拥有较低历史收益率的股票差。我们称之为"最大值效应"。通过使用Fama and Macbeth(1973)横断面回归分析方法,我们确认了"最大值效应"要比CAPM理论,Blitz and Pim van Vliet(2007)发现的"波动性效应"等更为有效地解释我国股市横断面股票收益率。     

Doubly Robust Estimation of Causal Effects with Multivalued Treatments: An Application to the Returns to Schooling

This paper provides doubly robust estimators for treatment effect parameters which are defined in a multivalued treatment effect framework. We apply this method to the unique dataset of the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) to estimate returns to various levels of schooling. The analysis is carried out for female and male samples separately to capture possible gender differences. Average returns are estimated for the entire population, as well as conditional on having a specific educational achievement. For males, relative to no qualification, we find an average return to O‐levels of 6.3%, to A‐levels of 7.9% and to higher education of 25.4%. The estimated average returns to O‐level and A‐level relative to no qualification are insignificant for females, whereas the return to higher education is 19.9%.Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Convexity and Sheepskin Effects in the Human Capital Earnings Function: Recent Evidence for Filipino Men

The issue of possible non-linearities in the relationship between log wages and schooling has received a good deal of attention in the literature. This paper uses data from a recent, high quality household survey for the Philippines, the 1998 Annual Poverty Indicator Survey (APIS), to test the fit of the log-linear specification for Filipino men. The results are based on a number of estimation strategies, including spline regressions, and semi-parametric regressions with a large number of dummies for years of schooling and experience. The basic conclusions of the paper are two. First, there appear to be large differences between the rates of return to education across levels in the Philippines. In particular, the returns to both primary and secondary education are lower than those for tertiary education, a difference which persists even after correcting for differences in direct private costs across levels. Second, within a given level, the last year of schooling is disproportionately rewarded in terms of higher wages. That is, there are clear sheepskin effects associated with graduation from primary school, secondary school, and university.     

基于极值分布理论的VaR与ES度量

本文应用极值分布理论对金融收益序列的尾部进行估计,计算收益序列的在险价值VaR和预期不足ES来度量市场风险。通过伪最大似然估计方法估计的GARCH模型对收益数据进行拟合,应用极值理论中的GPD对新息分布的尾部建模,得到了基于尾部估计产生收益序列的VaR和ES值。采用上证指数日对数收益数据为样本,得到了度量条件极值和无条件极值下VaR和ES的结果。实证研究表明:在置信水平很高(如99%)的条件下,采用极值方法度量风险值效果更好。而置信水平在95%下,其他方法和极值方法结合效果会很好。用ES度量风险能够使我们了解不利情况发生时风险的可能情况。     

Estimates of the return to schooling and ability: evidence from sibling data

We use sibling data on wages, schooling, and aptitude test scores from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79) to obtain OLS, family fixed effects, and fixed effects instrumental variable estimates of the return to schooling for a large sample of non-twin siblings. Following recent studies that use identical twin samples, we use sibling-reported schooling as an instrument for self-reported schooling. Controlling for aptitude test scores has a substantial impact on estimated returns to schooling even within families, and there is a large return to test scores that is comparable in size within and between families. We also find that the return to schooling is higher for older brothers than for younger brothers and for women than men. Finally, because the NLSY79 contains multiple sibling reports of education for the same individual, we are able to test and reject the overidentifying restrictions for the validity of sibling-reported schooling as an instrumental variable.