Okun's Law Revisited*

In the light of modern theoretical studies, the negative relationship between output and unemployment may take a nonlinear form, in the sense that changes in output can cause asymmetric changes in the unemployment rate. A regime‐dependent specification of Okun's law, where the inverse relationship between cyclical unemployment and cyclical GDP is allowed to differ across recessions and expansions, is estimated for the US economy. Using both the Hodrick–Prescott filter and a bivariate structural time series model to isolate the cyclical component of the variables of interest, the nonlinear specification is highly significant when tested against the linear alternative independently of the method used for extracting the cycle of unemployment and GDP. The estimation results imply that the contemporaneous effect of growth on unemployment is asymmetric and significantly higher in recessions than in expansions, and shocks to unemployment tend to be more persistent in the expansionary regime.     

Job separation in a non‐stationary search model: a structural estimation to evaluate alternative unemployment insurance systems

This paper considers a job search model in which the environment is not constant throughout the unemployment spell and where jobs do not last for ever. In this situation, reservation wages can be lower than they would be in a model without consideration of such separations, but they can initially be higher precisely because of the non‐constant environment. The model is estimated structurally by using Spanish data for the period 1985–1996. The main finding is that, after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, the unemployment hazard rate is almost flat during the first six months. However, after this duration, the highly decreasing job offer arrival rate comes to be the only significant factor, given that acceptance probabilities become equal to one. The estimated parameters are used to evaluate different unemployment insurance designs. We conclude that a non‐monotonic pattern in unemployment benefits, joint with a tax paid by workers and based on unemployment duration, makes this duration 13.2% lower than it currently is in Spain. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy

We consider a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations to study the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique for the postwar U.S. economy. The model allows blocks of parameters to change at endogenously estimated points of time. Contrary to the Lucas critique, there are large changes at certain points of time in the parameters associated with monetary policy that do not correspond to changes in “reduced-form” parameters for inflation or the unemployment rate. However, the structure of the U.S. economy has evolved considerably over the postwar period, with an apparent reduction in the late 1980s in the impact of monetary policy shocks on inflation, though not on the unemployment rate. Related, we find changes in the Phillips curve tradeoff between inflation and cyclical unemployment (measured as the deviation from the time-varying steady-state unemployment rate implied by the model) in the 1970s and especially since the mid-1990s.     

On the extent of re-entitlement effects in unemployment compensation

We analyze the implications of two-tier unemployment compensation systems with non-automatic eligibility in an equilibrium matching model with Nash bargaining. As eligibility for UI does not automatically follow from employment, the two types of unemployed workers have different threat points, which delivers equilibrium wage dispersion. The parameters of the model are estimated for France, and the model is also calibrated for Denmark and the U.S. Re-entitlement effects are shown to be sizeable for all three countries. For France, re-entitlement effects lower by 15% the rise in the wage and by 25% the rise in unemployment following a 10% increase in the benefit level. Finally, we show that in all three countries the optimal compensation system is characterized by time-decreasing unemployment benefits and non-automatic eligibility for UI, with higher levels of both UI and UA benefits, a smaller decrease in benefits over time, and a longer employment duration required for UI eligibility than in the current system.     

Unemployment Duration: An Analysis of Incomplete,Completed, and Multiple Spells in Emilia-Romagna

Sets of incomplete and completed spells of unemployment wereobtained from the Italian Quarterly Labour Force Survey,carried out by ISTAT in Emilia-Romagna (1993:1–1995:1).The data were analysed through a proportional hazards modelwith a Weibull specification of the baseline hazard, includingboth unobserved heterogeneity applied to the scale parameterof the duration distribution, and telescoping effect to accountfor spikes in the distribution of unemployment spells.They were compared formally also with a non-proportional hazardmodel based on a log-logistic distribution of duration.The estimation of the parameters was carried out separately on bothcompleted spells and quarterly incomplete spells to ascertaindifferences and to envisage the potential seasonal effect.The results showed that the shape parameters changed over time.The parameters of each covariate proved to be statisticallystable over time and were also equal to the parameters ofthe completed spells model.Therefore, the analysis of incomplete spells is fairly feasiblewhen an even (closed form) baseline hazard function is suitablefor data.     

Reconciling theory and empirics on the role of unemployment in mortgage default

Empirical models of mortgage default typically find that the influence of unemployment is negligible compared to other well known risk factors such as high borrower leverage or low borrower FICO scores. This is at odds with theory, which assigns a critical role to unemployment in the decision to stop payment on a mortgage. We help reconcile this divergence by employing a novel empirical strategy involving simulated unemployment histories to measure the severity of attenuation bias in loan-level estimations of default risk due to a borrower becoming unemployed. Attenuation bias results because individual data on unemployment status is unobserved, requiring that a market-wide unemployment rate be used as a proxy. Attenuation is extreme, with our results suggesting that the use of an aggregate unemployment rate in lieu of actual borrower unemployment status results in default risk from a borrower becoming unemployed being underestimated by a factor more than 100. In addition, our analysis indicates that adding the unemployment rate as a proxy for the missing borrower-specific unemployment indicator does not improve the accuracy of the estimated model over the specification without the proxy variable included. Hence, aggregate portfolio-level risk estimates for mortgage guarantors such as FHA also are not improved.These views represent those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. This is a revised version of a paper that previously circulated under the title “Unemployment and Unobserved Credit Risk in the FHA Single Family Mortgage Insurance Fund (NBER Working Paper No. 18880). John Grigsby provided excellent research assistance. We appreciate the helpful comments of Andrew Haughwout, Wilbert van der Klaauw, the editor (Stuart Rosenthal) and referees, but remain responsible for any errors.     

Forecasting realized variance measures using time-varying coefficient models

This paper considers the problem of forecasting realized variance measures. These measures are highly persistent estimates of the underlying integrated variance, but are also noisy. Bollerslev, Patton and Quaedvlieg (2016), Journal of Econometrics 192(1), 1–18 exploited this so as to extend the commonly used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) by letting the model parameters vary over time depending on the estimated measurement error variances. We propose an alternative specification that allows the autoregressive parameters of HAR models to be driven by a latent Gaussian autoregressive process that may also depend on the estimated measurement error variance. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood using the Kalman filter. Our empirical analysis considers the realized variances of 40 stocks from the S&P 500. Our model based on log variances shows the best overall performance and generates superior forecasts both in terms of a range of different loss functions and for various subsamples of the forecasting period.     

The non‐linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S.

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non‐linear VAR model. The non‐linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross‐correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence in the literature. The regime‐dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long‐run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MATCHING MODELS UNDER SCRUTINY: AN APPRAISAL OF THE SHIMER PUZZLE

Abstract Two papers have recently questioned the quantitative consistency of the search and matching model. Shimer has argued that a textbook matching model is unable to explain the cyclical variation of unemployment and vacancies in the US economy. Costain and Reiter have found the existence of a trade‐off in the model's performance: any attempt to change the calibrated values to improve the model's ability to predict the business cycle jeopardizes its predictions of the impact of unemployment benefits on unemployment. In surveying the literature originating in these findings, I distinguish three different avenues that have been followed to correct the model: change in wage formation, change in the calibration and changes in the model specification. The last approach seems to achieve the best results both from a business cycle and from a microeconomic viewpoint.     

SHORT-AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT. A PARAMETRIC MODEL WITH TIME-VARYING EFFECTS

ABSTRACT In this paper we present the first application to unemployment duration analysis of a mixture distribution model initially proposed in the biosciences literature by Blackstone, Naftel and Turner (1986). The model is characterized by the decomposition of an aggregate hazard function into a number of distinct hazard functions. The approach allows us to attribute to each function a different set of covariates as well as coefficients. Using US data on displaced workers, we are able to decompose the time varying hazard into two distinct phases — corresponding to short-term and long-term unemployment — and in the process evaluate (and reject) the proportionality assumption. We also compare the results from the model with those obtained from the Cox proportional hazards model and with a parametric hazards model in which a Burr specification is employed for the baseline hazard.     

The wage scar from male youth unemployment

We utilise the National Child Development Survey to analyse the impact of youth unemployment upon the wage up to twenty years later. We find a large and significant wage penalty, even after controlling for education, region and a wealth of family and individual characteristics. Our estimates are robust to an instrumental variables technique, indicating that the relationship estimated between youth unemployment and the wage is causal. Our results suggest a scar from early unemployment in the magnitude of 13–21% at age 42. However, this penalty is lower, at 9–11%, if individuals avoid repeat exposure to unemployment.     

Estimating the natural rate of unemployment and testing the natural rate hypothesis

How should one measure the natural rate of unemployment? This paper proposes a systems procedure as an alternative to NAIRU. The natural rate is treated as an unobserved state variable in a system that includes measurement equations for the unemployment rate, the rate of wage growth and the rate of inflation. The model is derived from a version of the wage bargaining model of Blanchard and embodies a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The model is estimated by embedding the Kalman filter within the full-information maximum likelihood procedure. For US data, the estimated model implies substantial post-war variation in the natural rate and a negative, but weak, effect of inflation surprises on unemployment. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Politics in wage setting: does government colour matter?

This paper studies the relationship between wage formation and the political colour of the government in an economy with a centralized wage bargaining system. Ideological, organizational and personal ties between the central trade union and the social democratic political party suggest that the trade union may behave significantly different in wage negotiations under a social democratic than under a conservative government. Using time series data for Norway, we estimate that changing from a conservative to a social democratic central government significantly reduces manufacturing wages and makes wages more responsive to unemployment. This result is consistent with a wage bargaining model augmented by political preferences of the union leaders and suggests that the effect of bargaining coordination depends on the political colour of the government. The estimated effects are both robust with respect to model specification and stable over time. We are grateful to Fredrik Wulfsberg, participants at seminars in Trondheim and Oslo, and an anonymous referee for valuable comments.     

Semi-Nonparametric Estimation of an Equilibrium Search Model

We specify and estimate an equilibrium job search model with productivity differences across labour market segments. The model allows for two types of unemployment: frictional unemployment due to search frictions and structural unemployment due to wage floors. Wage floors exist because of high unemployment benefits or binding minimum wages. The productivity distribution is estimated semi-nonparametrically along the lines of Gallant-Nychka, using Hermite series approximation. We decompose the total unemployment rate and we examine the effects of changes in the minimum wage.     

UNEMPLOYMENT,HUMAN CAPITAL DEPRECIATION,AND UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE POLICY

This paper presents a structural estimation of a life cycle model with unemployment risk. The model allows for human capital depreciation during unemployment. It is estimated using German and US household‐level data. The data suggest that the adverse impact of unemployment on individual productivity is important in both countries, but quantitatively more relevant in Germany. Moreover, simulations show that the combination of skill depreciation with the generous unemployment insurance system that was in place in Germany until recently is a key factor in explaining the differences in labour market performance between these countries. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unemployment compensation under partial program coverage

More than half of the unemployed in the U.S. are not covered by unemployment insurance. For them the provision of employment-dependent UI creates an additional benefit from work: future UI eligibility. This paper explores the overall and distributional effects of providing unemployment compensation under partial coverage. I extend a standard search model to accommodate eligible and non-eligible workers, where eligibility status is determined by previous separation history. While the effect of unemployment benefits on unemployment duration and post unemployment wages is theoretically ambiguous, a calibration of the model to the U.S. economy shows that unemployment benefits raise the unemployment rate. In addition I show that wage gaps and unemployment duration differentials between the eligible and non-eligible exist and are larger when layoffs are high.     

Unemployment insurance in a sticky-price model with worker moral hazard

This paper studies the role of unemployment insurance in a sticky-price model that features an efficiency-wage view of the labor market based on unobservable effort. The risk-sharing mechanism central to the model permits, but does not force, agents to be fully insured. Structural parameters are estimated using a maximum-likelihood procedure on US data. Formal hypothesis tests reveal that the data favor a model in which agents only partially insure each other against employment risk. The results also show that limited risk sharing helps the model capture many salient properties of the business cycle that a restricted version with full insurance fails to explain.     

Endogenous wage dispersion in a search-matching model

In this paper, we extend a job search-matching model with firm-specific investments in training, originally developed by Mortensen (Equilibrium Unemployment with Wage Posting: Burdett–Mortensen Meet Pissarides. In: Bunzel et al. (Eds.), Panel Data and Structural Labour Market Models, Amsterdam, North-Holland, 281–292), to allow for different offer arrival rates in employment and unemployment. The extension allows for extra flexibility when the model is confronted with real data. We subsequently estimate the parameters of the model on Danish labour market data using a structural nonparametric estimation procedure. We find that the model provides a good characterization of some empirical features of the labor market.     

Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics in a Panel of OECD Countries

We focus on the equilibrium unemployment rate as a parameter implied by a dynamic aggregate model of wage and price setting. The equilibrium unemployment rate depends on institutional labour market institutions through mark‐up coefficients. Compared with existing studies, the resulting final equation for unemployment has a richer dynamic structure. The empirical investigation is conducted in a panel data framework and uses OECD data up to 2012. We propose to extend the standard estimation method with time dummies to control and capture the effects of common and national shocks by using impulse indicator saturation (WG‐IIS), which has not been previously used on panel data. WG‐IIS robustifies the estimators of the regression coefficients in the dynamic model, and it affects the estimated equilibrium unemployment rates. We find that wage co‐ordination stands out as the most important institutional variable in our data set, but there is also evidence pointing to the tax wedge and the degree of compensation in the unemployment insurance system as drivers of equilibrium unemployment.