Monopoly,economic efficiency and unemployment

The objective of this paper is to analyze the efficiency consequences of monopoly from the perspective of an efficiency-wage model of unemployment based on Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984). An important feature of our model is that a firm can raise the probability that a shirking worker is detected by increasing its effort or investment in the monitoring of workers. Using this model we study how a monopolist's decision with regard to employment, output and monitoring is affected by exogenous variables such as job separation rate, technological advances, market size, and unemployment benefits. Furthermore, by comparing with the competitive equilibrium we find that monopoly is associated with higher unemployment rate, smaller output, and less monitoring. Surprisingly, however, monopoly does not necessarily lead to lower welfare level.     

The gains and losses to predicting nominal income by disaggregating via the new classical aggregate supply and rational expectations hypotheses

In this paper we compaia the predictive power of two types of model of nominal income: one based on a simple single equation aggregate framework; the second disaggregated into price level and output components. The source of the decomposition of nominal income of the type of model that is considered here are the twin hypotheses of rational expectations and structural neutrality. The model chosen as being representative of this approach to macroeconomic model building and against which some single equation models are compared isBarro's [1978] model of the price level and output in the U.S.     

Output Variability and Economic Growth: the Japanese Case

We examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth using quarterly data for the 1961–2000 period for the Japanese economy. Using three different specifications of GARCH models, namely, Bollerslev's model, Taylor/Schwert's model, and Nelson's EGARCH model, we obtain two important results. First, we find robust evidence that the “in‐mean” coefficient is not statistically significant. This evidence is consistent with Speight's (1999) analysis of UK data and implies that output variability does not affect output growth. In other words, this finding supports several real business cycle theories of economic fluctuations. Second, we find no evidence of asymmetry between output variability and growth, a result consistent with Hamori (2000) .     

UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY POLICY DURING THE GREAT RECESSION

We employ a nonlinear proxy-VAR approach to document the large response of real activity to a financial uncertainty shock during and in the aftermath of the Great Recession. We replicate this evidence with an estimated DSGE framework that we employ to quantify the output loss due to the large uncertainty shock that materialized in 2008Q4. We find such a shock to be able to explain about 60% of the output loss in the 2008–2014 period. Our model also points to the powerful role played by the Federal Reserve's systematic monetary policy in limiting the loss of output during the Great Recession.     

Life beyond the Washington Consensus: An Introduction to Pro-poor Macroeconomic Policies

Abstract

This paper develops a rationale for the recession-induced inflation hypothesis. Within a conflicting claims framework we present a model in which both price leaders and organized workers set their nominal prices on the basis of a desired profit rate and a real wage target respectively. We argue that an absolute cost advantage in concentrated industries (for instance in fixed costs) may provide oligopolistic leaders sufficient margin to raise prices and restore a desired level of profitability during a recession. The resultizng unstable income distribution will set off an inflationary spiral if the firm's advantage in selling its output imparts an upward bias to the flexibility of input prices (specifically wages). Taking into consideration different scenarios for workers' bargaining power we present a simple simulation experiment to analyze the inflation and real wage paths of the economy after a negative output shock. When we endogenize output, we show that for a high degree of the bargaining power, output is likely to converge to a higher steady-state value.     

Catholic Economic Association Minutes of the Executive Council Meeting May 13, 1961

This paper applies thematic analysis to survey data obtained from a sample of AFDC recipients to investigate the complexities of single-parent decision-making in low-income households. A basic needs budget is developed to determine the adequacy of women's wages to provide for children's minimal material needs. In surveys, parents indicate their primary goal is the well-being of the children, determined by the adequacy of several types of resources, which we categorize into four groups: 1) material resources, 2) caring resources, 3) community resources, and 4) the macro-level environment. Using this framework, we develop a schematic model of single-parent decision-making, incorporating the assumption that children's level of need and well-being are determined not only by the cost and availability of material resources but also by psychological factors such as gender conflicts, neighborhood safety, as well as parents' time and social networks that provide caring labor.     

Have output growth rates stabilised? evidence from the g‐7 economies

In this paper we consider an extension of Hamilton's Markov chain model of output growth that allows for a one‐time structural break in the hyperparameters. We fit this model to post‐war quarterly output growth data from the G‐7 economies and find evidence for such a structural break in each of them, although the break occurs at different times. The break is always associated with a decline in volatility and often with a narrowing of the mean growth differential between the expansionary and recessionary regimes. The results show that stabilisation has typically been achieved at the expense of a reduction in growth rates.     

Has liberalization affected profit margins in Indian Industry?

In this article, we analyse the determinants of firm‐level profit margins in Indian manufacturing. The model we estimate is rich in its dynamic characterization allowing as it does for lagged terms, trend movements, business cycle effects and a structural break in 1991. We hypothesize that the reforms undertaken by the government in 1991 constitute a structural break that influences a firm's independence to react to other firms as well as the extent of competition faced by these firms. Inserting this into the standard industrial organization model of profits, we obtain a dynamic market model. Estimating this model for 1980–98, we find that the 1991 reforms did have a significant impact on profit margins in Indian industry. The reforms have worked through their impact on a firm's behavioural variables – advertising, Research and Development (R&D), capital–output ratios and managerial remuneration – though the precise variables that were significant varied from sector to sector. We find that relatively inefficient firms make significantly lower profits than others both before and after the liberalization as expected.     

Asymmetric Exchange Rates and Unofficial Exchange Rate Interventions: The Case of South Korea

Applying Milton Friedman's ‘plucking’ model of output fluctuations, we investigate the behavior of the Korean won/dollar exchange rate using a state-space model with Markov switching, which incorporates both symmetric and asymmetric shocks. We find that the Korean won/US dollar exchange rate rarely falls below its trend, but is plucked upward from time to time by transitory shocks. This asymmetry suggests that the monetary authority unofficially intervenes in the foreign exchange market to support its own target level from below. Further evidence from changes in reserve assets indirectly supports our finding.     

Employment to output elasticities and reforms towards flexicurity: Evidence from OECD countries

Labor market reforms in the direction of “flexicurity” have been widely endorsed as a means to increase an economy's ability to adjust to negative shocks while offering adequate social safety nets. This paper empirically examines how such reforms influence employment's responsiveness to output fluctuations (employment–output elasticity). To address this question, we employ a single equation error correction model with policy interactions on a panel of OECD countries, which also incorporates the period of the Great Recession, and distinguish between passive and active labor market policy types. Flexicurity is represented by three policy measures: unemployment benefit generosity, the flexibility of hiring and firing rules, and spending on active labor market policies. We find that the effects of any single policy change are shaped by the broader existing policy mix within which it takes place. A hypothetical flexicurity reform towards the policy mix of Denmark, a well-known example of the flexicurity regime, is found to increase or leave unchanged countries' short-run employment–output elasticities, depending on the initial policy mix. These results are robust to accounting for a large set of additional labor market institutions.     

On the optimality of funding and hiring/firing according to stochastic demand: The role of growth and shutdown options

We examine the firm's investment and hiring/firing policy under stochastic demand with potential reversibility. We evaluate in particular the values of both investment and hiring/firing growth and shutdown options not only for the standard Cobb–Douglas production function but also when taking account of the natural upper bound on the output due to the demand level. For this latter purpose, we use results about average of options provided in Shackleton and Wojakowski (2007). As a by-product, we extend the approach of Tserlukevich (2008) by introducing the employment level to analyze in particular the optimality of the financial structure and leverage. Our approach allows us to get a quasi-explicit solution of the optimal firm's value that can be deeply analyzed. Such results can potentially explain the interest for flexible contractual arrangements with capital and labor firm's structure.     

INFLATION PERSISTENCE AND FLEXIBLE PRICES*

If the central bank follows an interest rate rule, then inflation is likely to be persistent, even when prices are fully flexible. Any shock, whether persistent or not, may lead to inflation persistence. In equilibrium, the dynamics of inflation are determined by the evolution of the spread between the real interest rate and the central bank's target. Inflation persistence can be characterized by a vector autocorrelation function relating inflation and output. This article shows that a flexible‐price, general‐equilibrium business cycle model with money and a central bank using an interest rate target can account for such inflation persistence.     

Economic impact of ocean fish populations in the global fishery

Our goal in this paper is to estimate the total output in an economy that is currently dependent (at least partially) on current fisheries output. We therefore applied the Leontief technological coefficients at current production and then estimate total output supported throughout the economy at the current level of production. Estimates of gross revenue from capture fisheries suggest that the direct value of output for this sector is US $80–85 billion annually (Sumaila et al., Journal of Bioeconomics 9(1):39–51, 2007; Willmann et al., The Sunken Billions, World Bank, FAO, Washington DC, Rome, 2009). However, as a primary or a potential economic base industry, there are a vast number of secondary economic activities—from boat building to international transport—that are supported by world fisheries, yet these related activities are rarely considered when evaluating the economic impact of fisheries. This study applies an input–output methodology to estimate the total direct, indirect, and induced impact of marine capture fisheries on the world economy. While results suggest that there is a great deal of variation in fishing output multipliers between regions and countries, when we apply the output multipliers to the capture fisheries sector at the global level, we find that significant indirect and induced effects place the impact of this sector to world output nearly three times larger than the value of landings at first sale, at between US $80–85 billion annually (Sumaila et al., Journal of Bioeconomics 9(1):39–51, 2007; Willmann et al., The Sunken Billions, World Bank, FAO, Washington DC, Rome, 2009). However, as a primary or a potential economic base industry, there are a vast number of secondary economic activities—from boat building to international transport—that are supported by world fisheries, yet these related activities are rarely considered when evaluating the economic impact of fisheries. This study applies an input–output methodology to estimate the total direct, indirect, and induced impact of marine capture fisheries on the world economy. While results suggest that there is a great deal of variation in fishing output multipliers between regions and countries, when we apply the output multipliers to the capture fisheries sector at the global level, we find that significant indirect and induced effects place the impact of this sector to world output nearly three times larger than the value of landings at first sale, at between US 225 and 240 billion per year.     

Slow Growth,Trade Liberalisation and the Mexican Disease: A medium-term macroeconomic model with an application to Mexico

The purpose of this paper is to analyse Mexico's medium-term macroeconomic outlook, from the vantage point of the country's recent development. The analysis is carried out within a formal model for the determination of the rates of employment and inflation under conditions of external and internal balance. In equilibrium, the real wage and the rates of employment and inflation depend inter alia on the level of labour productivity, the ratio of foreign debt to domestic output, and the foreign trade regime. Econometric tests based on Mexican data support the model's basic postulates and, in addition, reveal the presence of structural change, linked to trade reform, in the trade balance and the manufactures' productivity growth equations. The macroeconomic implications of such parameter changes are discussed with the help of the analytical model developed.     

Profits and politics: Coordinating technology adoption in agriculture

This paper examines the political economy of government-led coordination of economic activity in a simple two-sector model in which individuals' choice of agricultural technology affects industrialization. We demonstrate the existence of multiple equilibria; the economy is either characterized by the use of a traditional agricultural technology and a low level of industrialization or the use of a mechanized technology and a high level of industrialization. Relative to the traditional technology, use of the mechanized technology increases output but leaves some population groups worse off. We show that the distributional implications of choosing the mechanized technology restrict the possibility of Pareto-improving coordination by an elected policy-maker, even when we allow for income redistribution.     

A spillover‐based theory of credentialism

I propose a model in which credentials, such as diplomas, are instrumentally valuable to workers. The model avoids an important criticism of standard job market signalling models by tying a worker's wage to their output. A worker's productivity is influenced by the skills of their co‐workers, where such skills arise from an ability‐augmenting investment that is made prior to matching with co‐workers. Credentials allow workers to demonstrate their investment to the labour market, thereby allowing them to match with high‐skill co‐workers in equilibrium. Despite the positive externality associated with a worker's investment, I show how overinvestment is pervasive in equilibrium.     

Profits and politics: Coordinating technology adoption in agriculture

This paper examines the political economy of government-led coordination of economic activity in a simple two-sector model in which individuals' choice of agricultural technology affects industrialization. We demonstrate the existence of multiple equilibria; the economy is either characterized by the use of a traditional agricultural technology and a low level of industrialization or the use of a mechanized technology and a high level of industrialization. Relative to the traditional technology, use of the mechanized technology increases output but leaves some population groups worse off. We show that the distributional implications of choosing the mechanized technology restrict the possibility of Pareto-improving coordination by an elected policy-maker, even when we allow for income redistribution.     

Persistent gaps and default traps

We show how vicious circles in countries' credit histories arise in a model where output persistence is coupled with asymmetric information about output shocks. In such an environment, default signals the borrower's vulnerability to adverse shocks and creates a pessimistic growth outlook. This translates into higher interest spreads and debt servicing costs relative to income, raising the cost of future repayments, thereby creating “default traps”. We build a long and broad cross-country dataset to show the existence of a history-dependent “default premium” and of significant effects of output persistence on sovereign creditworthiness, consistent with the model's predictions.     

On the Time‐Varying Relationship between Unemployment and Output: What shapes it?

This paper revisits, by means of both time series and panel data analyses, the empirical regularity popularized by Okun's (Proc Bus Econ Sect, 98‐103, 1962) seminal paper focusing on a sample of 20 advanced economies between 1978 and 2015. Not only do we provide arguably better estimates of the Okun's Law coefficient (OLC) (using the gap version) by employing a new filtering technique, but more importantly, we also contest the hypothesis that the OLC has been static over time. By estimating country‐specific time‐varying Okun coefficient models, we confirm that the unemployment‐output responsiveness has been changing over time. The dispersion between countries’ OLCs has been determined by some (structural) characteristics. The starting level of unemployment and the phase of the business cycle increase the estimated OLCs, while informality and certain labour and product market policies lower them. Our evidence sustains the fact that aggregate demand policies aiming at increasing output growth can equally contribute to the recovery in labour markets.     

Hybrid Inflation-Price-Level Targeting in an Economy With Output Persistence

This paper investigates hybrid inflation‐price‐level targeting (HT), employing a Phillips curve with output persistence. By HT we mean that a central bank targets a weighted average of the optimal inflation rate and its corresponding price level. The analysis shows that if output is persistent to some extent, it is desirable to adopt HT because, relative to the case of alternative regimes such as inflation targeting (IT) and price‐level targeting (PT), it will reduce the variability of inflation and thereby social loss. In addition, it is shown that the optimal hybrid‐type target is uniquely determined according to the degree of persistence in output.