美联储货币政策与回购操作

该文在分析美国回购市场的基础上,对美联储回购／逆回购货币政策工具进行了详细分析。2008年金融危机以前,回购和逆回购仅是美联储临时性政策工具,总体交易规模很小。实证结果表明,金融危机后国债隔夜回购的市场交易利率能预测美联储国债隔夜回购利率变动,且美联储的国债隔夜回购利率相对更高。2013年8月,美联储推出隔夜固定利率全额（给定额度内）供应逆回购工具,为将来美联储退出QE过程做准备。2013年最后两个交易日,该工具操作规模分别约为1000亿美元和2000亿美元,引发市场关注。     

美国QE3猜想

到2008年12月,美国联邦基金利率从2007年8月的5.25%降至0～0.25%,意味着美联储短期利率工具的作用已经走到了尽头。货币政策工具从利率工具演变为资产负债表工具成为金融危机以来美联储货币政策演进的必然逻辑。美联储若继续有所作为,必须进一步突破局限,采取新的政策工具控制长期利率。由于央行无法直接控制长期利率,它能够做的只是调整其资产负债表,通过购买长期债券扩张资产规模来间接作用于长期利率,即所谓的QE(量化宽松)手段。目前美联储的货币政策面对两项挑战:     

美联储货币政策工具变量对有效利率的影响

本文使用了结构向量自回归模型对2003年1月-2012年10月美国次贷危机前后美联储基础货币供给量、存款准备金月度余额和公开市场业务对美联储有效利率的影响进行了实证分析。经过模型实证分析可知,美联储这三大基础货币工具的变动对美联储有效利率的影响方向和力度都发生了变化,这些变化正说明美国经济目前已经进入"流动性陷阱"当中,同时金融机构的"惜贷"较为严重,美联储在次贷危机之后的公开市场业务是有效的。     

美国货币政策对我国股票市场的影响研究——基于TVP-VAR模型

在美联储货币政策调整、退出QE在即的背景下,研究美联储货币政策如何影响我国股票市场具有较强现实意义。本文运用时变VAR模型,分析美国货币政策在不同阶段对我国股票市场的影响和溢出效应。研究结果显示：美联储货币政策工具（利率调整和公开市场操作）与我国主要股指有较高的关联性;在不同时期,美联储利率调整和公开市场操作均对我国股票市场产生负面冲击,且利率调整的冲击效应更强;在美联储重启QE初期（2020年7月）,美联储公开市场操作对我国股市整体的冲击效应最大,而利率调整对我国房地产股指的影响较大。     

欧美非常规货币政策的反思

美联储。美国为迅速摆脱危机,在美联储的操作下,将联邦基金利率一降再降,直至接近于0,随后又动用了非常规的货币政策工具。美联储通过演讲、政策声明和承诺等多次向公众传达经济形势,引导联邦基金利率未来的可能趋势,修正投资者和经济预测者的利率预期;     

“新工具”或将主导美联储“退出”路径

2月18日,美联储宣布把银行紧急贷款利率提升0．25个百分点至0．75个百分点。紧急贷款利率应该是美联储作为最后贷款人对银行贷款的利率,或者叫贴现率,是三大货币工具之一。市场人士普遍认为,上调银行紧急贷款利率会抬高各种短期利率的“底部”,直接影响加息预期。     

新工具或将主导美联储“退出”路径

2月18日,美联储宣布把银行紧急贷款利率提升0．25个百分点至0．75个百分点。紧急贷款利率应该是美联储作为最后贷款人对银行贷款的利率,或者叫贴现率,是三大货币工具之一。市场人士普遍认为,上调银行紧急贷款利率会抬高各种短期利率的“底部”,直接影响加息预期。     

从量化宽松到量化紧缩——美联储缩减资产负债表的决定因素及其影响

作为货币政策正常化的第二阶段,美联储将在2017年开始缩减因危机后实行的量化宽松政策而形成的规模庞大的资产负债表,并指出缩表结束后的证券资产持有规模将不会大于为有效执行货币政策所必须维持的水平。本文认为,决定美联储资产负债表长期规模的主要因素是美联储负债中的流通中货币量和准备金余额的长期水平,前者取决于美联储对未来名义GDP增长趋势的估计,后者则取决于美联储对未来货币政策执行框架的选择。如果美联储倾向于采用危机前的公开市场操作办法,准备金余额的长期水平将与银行交易性存款余额决定的必要准备金水平趋于一致,美联储资产负债表的长期规模将因此显著低于目前的水平。相反,如果依照本文所预计的,美联储将继续危机后实行的利率走廊机制,以超额准备金利率和隔夜反向回购利率控制联邦基金利率的变动范围,准备金余额的长期水平就将由银行对准备金的需求来决定。在这种情况下,美联储资产负债表的规模虽会在目前的基础上缩减,但程度相对有限,因而对经济的负面影响较小。此外,和危机前的以提高联邦基金利率作为紧缩性货币政策的主要工具不同,本次量化紧缩政策的特点是美联储可以同时运用短期利率和资产负债表两种政策工具,意味着美联储能够通过资产负债表的缩减来部分地取代联邦基金利率的提高,而不至于改变紧缩性货币政策的总体效果,这在一定程度上将缓和升息对经济造成的负面影响。     

从资产负债表看美联储的救市与退出

为应对金融危机,美联储采取了一系列措施,包括下调联邦基金利率水平、量化宽松政策、对现有的货币政策工具进行创新、对金融机构实施紧急救助等,这些措施对金融市场实施全方位的救助,增加了基础货币的供应,促进了金融市场的恢复,同时也使美联储的资产额大幅增加。由于市场信心尚未完全恢复,金融机构不愿意放贷,美联储通过各种金融工具投放出去的流动性又流回美联储。如果经济好转、市场信心恢复,这些流动性投向市场,将对经济形成巨大的通货膨胀压力。未来的退出步骤将与救市步骤相反,即先通过数量化工具收回市场上过多的流动性,使美联储的资产负债表达到正常的水平,再提高联邦基金利率。就美联储的资产负债表的结构和美国经济的现实情况来看,美联储的低利率政策还将持续一段时间。     

焦点——美联储再度“放水”？

8月10日,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率继续维持在历史上最低点0～0．25%的水平,并表示将购买更多国债以刺激经济复苏。作为主要货币政策工具之一的联邦基金利率在被降至接近于零后,美联储的“弹药”已所剩无几。美联储此次政策调整,即可被视为重启购买国债计划的一个前奏。鉴于目前经济形势尚未显著恶化,     

Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Vertical Production Chain Approach

It has become customary to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) with generalized method of moments using a large instrument set that includes lags of variables that are ad hoc to the firm's price-decision problem. Researchers have also conventionally used real unit labor cost (RULC) as the proxy for real marginal cost even though it is difficult to support its significance. This paper introduces a new proxy for the real marginal cost term as well as a new instrument set, both of which are based on the micro foundations of the vertical chain of production. I find that the new proxy, based on input prices as opposed to wages, provides a more robust and significant fit to the model. Instruments that are based on the vertical chain of production appear to be both more valid and relevant toward the model.     

Instrument instability and short-term monetary control

The literature on instrument instability tends support to a policy of smoothing interest rates: it contends that rigid adherence to a monetary rule would bring about explosive interest-rate movements. This contention is examined using a simple model which incorporates rational expectations; the results suggest that instrument instability is associated with interest-rate smoothing rather than with short-term control of the money supply. Furthermore, policy that attempts to stabilize interest rates may itself account for empirical findings which have hitherto been viewed as evidence that instrument instability would occur if the money supply were closely controlled.     

The signaling role of policy actions

In an economy affected by shocks that are imperfectly known, the monetary instrument takes on a dual stabilizing role: as a policy response that directly influences the economy and as a vehicle for information that reveals the central bank's assessment to firms. Because mark-up shocks cannot be neutralized by monetary policy, providing firms with more information about these shocks exacerbates their reaction and creates a larger distortion. Recognizing the signaling role of its instrument, the central bank distorts its policy response in order to optimally shape firms’ beliefs. While providing firms with more information is always detrimental to the output gap, it has a more subtle effect on price dispersion depending on whether information is provided through the transparency channel or through the signaling channel. Although more transparency is always detrimental to welfare, the information that is conveyed by the monetary instrument improves welfare when firms’ coordination is highly valuable.     

Measuring service quality in Ghana: a crossvergence cultural perspective

This paper develops an instrument for measuring service quality in Ghana aimed at capturing a crossvergence perspective and to compare the efficacy of the new instrument (GhanQual) with SERVPERF and PAKSERV within the Ghanaian cultural context. Data were collected using SERVPERF and PAKSERV scale items. Using a structured questionnaire, data were collected from a sample of banking and hospital customers in Ghana and analysed using exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis and regression analysis. The new instrument demonstrated superiority over SERVPERF and PAKSERV and is recommended as the most appropriate instrument for measuring service quality within the Ghanaian cultural context. The study identified the important factors service managers in Ghana can utilise in measuring and managing service quality and is believed to be the first of its kind to propose and develop a crossvergence perspective service quality instrument as well as to compare the efficacy of SERVPERF and PAKSERV in a single study. Extension of this study in other countries is recommended as this study was contextualised within the Ghanaian cultural context. Nevertheless, this study provides a starting point for developing cultural-specific and crossvergence perspective instruments for measuring service quality.     

Las incapacidades de aprendizaje organizacional y su relación con los estilos de aprendizaje organizacional en la Mipyme

In this study, we examined 200 micro, small and medium enterprises from Durango City, Mexico, in order to find the possible relationship between learning disabilities and organizational learning styles, and its impact on organizational learning. To achieve this we applied a measuring instrument to the aforementioned companies, it was duly adapted to the context, tested and validated, and the responses were analyzed using a linear regression model, which used the seven learning disabilities as predictors of the four learning styles. We found statistically significant evidence that there is a relationship between learning disabilities and learning styles in the studied enterprises.     

Unqualified Directors in Insolvency: A Comparative Study on the Desirability of Civil Law Directors' Disqualification in the Netherlands

The current global economic, and therefore political, climate has given rise to legislative responses within insolvency law, aiming to increase the legal arsenal against fraudulent behaviour. A recent proposal of the Dutch government to introduce a civil law disqualification instrument is a quintessential example of this tendency. In this article, the usefulness of this proposal is questioned. The usefulness of the civil law instrument is tested by comparing it with its Dutch criminal law equivalent. Furthermore, several proposals for alteration, based on foreign counterparts, will be formulated in order to increase the effectiveness of the aforementioned arsenal as a whole. Comparisons are made with similar instruments in Australia, England, Germany and the USA. Throughout the article, it will be asserted that, in order for the proposal to optimally reflect the principles of effectiveness and its civil law nature, a reallocation of certain elements of the proposal to its criminal law equivalent is required. Copyright © 2014 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Should the Federal Reserve Pay Competitive Interest on Reserves?

In 2008, the Federal Reserve began paying interest on reserves. How should the Fed use this new policy instrument? As the Fed reduces its balance sheet, should it continue to satiate reserve demand and pay competitive interest on reserves? Here, we argue that this may be an inefficient use of the new policy instrument. Using a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE), augmented to include a banking sector and an interbank market, our benchmark calibration implies an optimal tax on reserves of about 20 to 40 basis points in the steady state, and a fluctuating tax rate in response to shocks.     

Construcción de un instrumento para medir el clima organizacional en función del modelo de los valores en competencia

The purpose of this study was to explore a model in the Mexican labor field that contextualizes organizational climate and links it with organizational culture. The Competing Values Framework (CVF), by K. S. Cameron & R. E. Quinn, was chosen due to its importance as the framework with more empirical evidence regarding corporate culture. The CVF proposes a four-quadrant structure for organizations: 1) internal focus, flexibility (clan), 2) internal focus, stability and control (hierarchy), 3) external focus, flexibility (adhocracy), and 4) external focus, stability and control (market). Likewise, it states that organizations present a mix of values from all quadrants. Overall, the findings of the study founded the model on a heterogeneous sample of 12 organizations (n = 1424) in the central region of Mexico. In addition to the model, a primer version of an instrument was designed with the intention to measure organizational climate according to the CVF. The instrument proved its capability to discriminate amongst organizations and, in general, its reliability and validity.     

A Rejoinder to the long road to publishing: A user-friendly exposé1

The focus of this paper is an investigation into the approaches to studying of Portuguese students of introductory accounting using the short version of the ASSIST instrument. In doing so, it also examined the impact upon the strategy adopted of the discipline area of students and gender. The results validate the use of the inventory with students of accounting in Portuguese higher education and add weight to the use of translated versions of this instrument elsewhere. The findings indicate that Portuguese students of introductory accounting favour a strategic approach over either a deep or a surface approach and suggest that both the individual student's discipline area and gender have an impact upon the adopted approaches to studying.     

反延期纳税机制面临的挑战与对策

反延期纳税机制是资本输出国保护税基、维护资本输出中性原则的重要手段。在世界上率先进行相关立法的美国,其反延期纳税机制现如今也受到了来自纳税人、服务业发展、电子商务兴起等多方面的挑战。对此,本文介绍了三种改革反延期纳税机制的可能方案。