Acquisition Premiums, Subsequent Workforce Reductions and Post-Acquisition Performance

abstract    This study suggests that paying acquisition premiums leads to workforce reductions in the merged firm, which in turn results in poorer post-acquisition performance. This issue is important to scholars and practising managers given the pervasiveness and importance of knowledge and human capital to competitive advantage. In a sample of 174 major related acquisitions completed in the period 1992–98, results show a positive relationship between the premium paid for an acquisition and subsequent workforce reductions, controlling for a number of alternative explanations. Additionally, workforce reduction mediates the negative relationship between premiums and post-acquisition performance. The results suggest that the effects of workforce reductions following large premiums paid for the acquired firm can be detrimental to the interests of the organization.     

INFORMATION IN THE YIELD CURVE: A MACRO‐FINANCE APPROACH

We use a macro‐finance model, incorporating macroeconomic and financial factors, to study the term premium in the US bond market. Estimating the model using Bayesian techniques, we find that a single factor explains most of the variation in bond risk premiums. Furthermore, the model‐implied risk premiums account for up to 40% of the variability of one‐ and two‐year excess returns. Using the model to decompose yield spreads into an expectations and a term premium component, we find that, although this decomposition does not seem important to forecast economic activity, it is crucial to forecast inflation for most forecasting horizons. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

流动性与交易所市场回购利率

在发达的金融市场上,回购利率的期限结构服从纯预期假设,无论从经济意义上还是从统计意义上来说风险溢酬都不显著。但是中国金融市场作为新兴市场表现出一些不同点。本文利用2000年1月到2006年2月上海证券交易所的回购数据,发现长期回购利率有明显的风险溢酬,预期理论并不成立。进一步分析得到流动性是影响风险溢酬的一个关键因素,流动性的预期和流动性的随机冲击都对观察到的风险溢酬有影响,并且流动性的预期是主要的影响因素。     

Union wage premiums in Great Britain: Coverage or membership?

This paper presents estimates of union wage premiums for Great Britain and distinguishes between union membership and union coverage effects on wages. For this purpose a panel data system estimator is applied to data from the British Household Panel Survey.For female workers a coverage premium of 6.1% is estimated whilst no evidence of a union membership premium is found. This result lends support to the by-product theory of Olson (1965) [Olson Jr., M., 1965. The logic of collective action. Harvard University Press, Cambridge (Mass.)]: if female covered members receive other private benefits than a higher wage from the union the coverage premium could be viewed as a by-product. For male workers no evidence is found of a membership premium nor a coverage premium. To investigate potential bias in the estimated union effects particular attention is paid to measurement error in union membership and the inclusion of job-changes in the sample.     

Return and Risk Premium Seasonalities in three Emerging Asian Markets: Hong Kong,Korea and Taiwan*

In this study, we find that seasonal return patterns differ from that implied by risk premiums in three emerging Asian markets; namely, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan. Positive January seasonal returns are found in the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets, while positive February seasonal returns are also found in Taiwan. These findings suggest that investors should place their money in these markets during January but not for the months of June and December in Korea, and for the months of May and November in Taiwan. Corporate managers should also be aware of the need to adjust for such seasonal variations when they use market data to evaluate the risk premium or required rate of return for projects in these markets. The results also show that the size effect may also be priced in some of these markets.     

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS: SURVEY AND SYNTHESIS

Abstract.  This paper reviews the empirical literature on foreign exchange rate expectations. Prominent issues are the forward premium puzzle, expectations formation in financial markets, heterogeneity of expectations, market microstructure, time-varying risk premiums and forecast performance. Although much has been learned in each field, this survey highlights the areas of research in which our understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate expectations is still incomplete. Our survey suggests that both irrational expectations and time-varying risk premiums account for the forward discount anomaly, that long-term expectations reverse towards their long-run equilibrium values and that heterogeneous behaviour of market participants has the potential of explaining some of the empirical regularities in the international finance literature.     

Multi‐dimensional signaling with fixed‐price repurchase offers

This study presents a signaling model of fixed‐price repurchase offers which shows that the proportion repurchased and the premium paid in excess of the stock's full‐information value signal both earnings and risk. The model yields four novel implications: high risk firms repurchase smaller proportions at greater premiums, earnings held constant; and high earnings firms make offers for larger proportions at higher prices, but lower premiums, risk held constant. Empirical tests support the implications, even in the presence of alternatives, e.g., free cash flow, optimal leverage, and shareholder heterogeneity. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Central Government-Private Sector Wage Differential

Since Ehrenberg and Schwarz (1986) there has been a plethora of articles investigating the relationship between public and private sector wages. This article examines part of this post 1986 literature by reviewing articles that examine central government-private sector wage differentials. In sum, most articles find that there is a premium paid to central government workers, although the premium has declined in recent years. In developing countries, however, the differential is usually negative. Women and minorities tend to do better in the public sector relative to their private sector counterparts. The evidence on union premiums between sectors is mixed, although the premium tends to be higher in the private sector. However public sector union workers do not do much better than private sector union members. The magnitude of all of the wage differentials discussed are sensitive to the estimation technique and data source used. The most common explanation for the public sector wage premium is economic rent accruing to government workers, although the public sector wage determination literature suggests that the differential is due to returns to political and 'vote producing' activities not relevant in the private sector.     

以退市为目的之股票回购的时机选择与定价影响因素——中石油回购旗下三家上市公司流通股的案例研究

2005年10月,中石油向下属3家上市公司(辽河油田、锦州石化、吉林化工)流通股股东同时发出回购要约,成功回购后,3家公司股票终止交易,退出市场。文章以此次收购为研究对象,从收购方财务状况、被收购方股票价格、法律环境变迁和规避股权分置改革等几个方面分析了中石油对回购时机的准确把握和对相关法律、政策的成功规避,有效地降低了回购成本。文章还讨论了溢价的影响因素、溢价的合理性和流通股股东在回购中所处的不利地位。本案例中,中石油对回购时机的把握及其定价策略将对其他公司的回购具有借鉴意义。     

Tender-offer premia as a management signal

In this paper we test whether tender-offer premia for share repurchases can be viewed as an outgrowth of optimizing behavior by managers in a signalling environment. This is in contrast to previous work on the signalling hypothesis which focuses on the stock market's reaction to the announcement of tender offers. Our empirical results indicate that premia are systematically related to the price of the firm's stock and the level of the stock market but are not related to either management compensation, inside holdings of stock or the ratio of shares sought to total shares.     

The Labour Market Effects of Increases in Social Insurance Premium: Evidence from Japan

Exploiting heterogeneous variations in labour cost increases due to Japan's 2003 social insurance premium reform as a natural experiment, we estimate the impacts of the increased social insurance premiums on employment, working hours and payroll costs. Using the difference‐in‐differences method with establishment fixed effects, we find that firms reduce the number of employees and increase average annual earnings from longer working hours in response to an exogenous increase in labour costs without productivity gains. Firms manage to pay for this increase in the average wage paid to the remaining workers by reducing the number of employees to keep total payroll costs unchanged. In contrast, since social insurance premiums are shared equally between employees and employers, firms pay the remaining half premiums that they are imposed with. Sub‐sample analyses show that firms adhering to a labour hoarding policy did fire many workers taking advantage of the 2003 reform. This may indicate that the reform provided a good excuse to cut employment in firms that had been forced to comply with a labour hoarding policy even in an over‐employment situation, which is more likely in sectors and countries where dismissals are rigorously regulated.     

Discrimination in rental markets: Evidence from Norway

This paper examines discrimination in the rental housing market. We analyze a rich data set on rental contracts from Norway. We find that tenants born abroad pay a statistically significant and economically important premium for their dwelling units after controlling for a comprehensive set of apartment, individual and contract specific covariates. Moreover, we find that the premium is largest for tenants of African origin. Finally, Norwegians whose parents were born abroad also face a statistically significant and economically important rental premium that is directly comparable to the premium paid by tenants born abroad.     

Monopsonistic discrimination, worker turnover, and the gender wage gap

Motivated by models of worker flows, we argue in this paper that monopsonistic discrimination may be a substantial factor behind the overall gender wage gap. Using matched employer–employee data from Norway, we estimate establishment-specific wage premiums separately for men and women, conditioning on fixed individual effects. Regressions of worker turnover on the wage premium identify less wage elastic labour supply facing each establishment of women than that of men. Workforce gender composition is strongly related to employers' wage policies. The results suggest that 70–90% of the gender wage gap for low-educated workers may be attributed to differences in labour market frictions between men and women, while the similar figures for high-educated workers ranges from 20 to 70%.     

Balance sheet effects and original sinners’ risk premiums

This paper describes an empirical model of country risk premiums and their determinants, relying on recent theories of balance sheet effects. We approach the latter by introducing a novel approach to country risk premiums that assumes that nominal exchange rates can move away from or towards equilibrium exchange rates, which allows exchange rate movements towards equilibrium to stimulate favourable competitiveness effects as opposed to adverse balance sheet effects. We investigate eight European emerging economies that suffer from “original sin” over the period 2001–2013, using the pooled mean group estimator of the dynamic panel error correction model. This methodology improves estimation efficiency and model performance, but also allows differentiation between long- and short-run country risk premium determinants. We find that, in the long run, country risk premiums increase in response to higher inflation and a higher total debt-to-GDP ratio, while they move in the opposite direction when the real GDP growth rate rises. Our results suggest that, in the short run, higher external debt service caused by exchange rate depreciation, i.e. the balance sheet effect, and market volatility tends to raise risk premiums, while higher international reserves and the federal funds rate tend to decrease them. Moreover, we show that the negative balance sheet effect is much stronger than the potentially favourable competitiveness effect, and that the rise in risk premiums is not due to the increase in the size of external debt, but to the larger debt burden represented by balance sheet effects.     

Firm-specific wage growth and changes in the labor market for managers

This paper analyzes recent changes in the employment relationships between managers and firms. In both Becker's and Lazear's models of firm-specific wage growth, compensation is deferred from early in an employee's tenure with a firm until later in the contract. The deferred compensation bonds the worker to the firm. Based on cross-sectional data from Current Population Surveys, rates of firm-specific wage growth are estimated for the managerial labor market. The findings show that the rate of wage growth that is firm-specific for managers in manufacturing industries declined significantly during the early 1980s. It is estimated, for example, that a manager with 12 years of tenure in a manufacturing firm enjoyed, on average, a 25% wage premium in 1979 over an otherwise similar manager who was a new hire in a firm. By 1983 the firm-specific wage premium for a manager with 12 years of tenure was only 5%. These changes represent a significant reduction in the strength of the employment bond between firms and managers, and a reduction in the incentive effects previously enjoyed by firms from the use of deferred-compensation schemes. This change is consistent with the significant increases in the displacement rates of managers that occurred during the 1980s.     

The human resource management issues during an acquisition: the target firm's top management team and key managers

When a company is acquired, the amount of money paid for the company is normally some multiple of earnings. The assumption is that the purchase price is higher than the tangible assets of the company. Therefore, the acquirer believes that there is value in the company beyond the balance sheet of the company. Frequently, some percentage of the ‘premium’ paid by the acquiring company is for the top management team and/or key managers. This paper examines the role of the top management team and their retention on the post acquisition performance of the company.     

What drives the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market?

This paper examines the dynamics of the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market by adopting a multivariate decomposition approach to measure the individual contributions of various driving forces of the premium (such as firm size, idiosyncratic volatility, and market liquidity betas). By employing a wide range of liquidity measures, we show that liquidity premium is generally significant in the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, this premium is increasing in recent years starting from 2011; this observation is different from the United States market, in which the premium has declined over the years. Moreover, the multivariate decomposition approach highlights several asset pricing factors as the main driving forces of the premium. Based on the Amihud liquidity measure, the decomposition approach indicates that the size factor contributes 45–65% to the liquidity premium. However, the measure based on turnover suggests that idiosyncratic volatility accounts for at least 60% of the liquidity premium. In contrast, the global market liquidity beta does not significantly contribute to the premium. However, there is some evidence that the local market liquidity beta has become more significant in its impact on the premium during the period from 2011 to 2015. Our results imply that the findings on the liquidity premium in the Chinese stock market could be sensitive to the liquidity measure used and period of analysis.     

CPI revision provides more accuracy in the medical care services component.

This revision, as in the past, enabled the Bureau to update medical care service expenditure weights in the CPI, including a more complete allocation of health insurance premiums. Instead of keeping the portion of premiums that go to benefits under health insurance, the expenditure weight for each benefit category has been added to the appropriate out-of-pocket expense. The unpublished health insurance item represents only the retained earnings portion of premiums paid by households. The specific item categories included in medical care services have also been updated and expanded. A study conducted during the developmental phase of the revision indicated that the Bureau should expand the eligible priced rates for physicians in the CPI to include not only the "self-pay" rate, but also other categories of payment as well. Another study indicated that the direct pricing of health insurance is not feasible because of the difficulty of factoring out from premium changes the effect of utilization levels and modified coverage. In pricing medical care service items, as with other item categories in the CPI, BLS attempts to exclude from price movement the effect of quality changes. However, some quality changes are difficult to assess or are not readily identified, for example, a change in the ratio of nurses to patients, and such changes may be reflected as part of the price change movement in the CPI.     

Share repurchases,shareholder rights,and corporate governance provisions

Grounded in agency theory, this study seeks to explore how repurchase activity is influenced by the strength of shareholder rights. The empirical evidence shows that firms where shareholder rights are weaker tend to repurchase less stock. I argue that this is because managers of firms with weak shareholder rights are better able to exploit the weak shareholder rights and retain more cash within the firm, potentially to extract private benefits as alleged by the free cash flow hypothesis. Managers of firms with strong shareholder rights, on the contrary, are forced to disgorge cash to stockholders in the form of repurchases. In addition, I test the dividend-substitution hypothesis and find no evidence that repurchases substitute for dividends.     

Demographics, dividend clienteles and the dividend premium

The catering theory of dividends proposed that corporate dividend policy is driven by prevailing investor demand for dividend payers, and that managers cater to investors by paying dividends when the dividend premium is high. While earlier research found that the dividend premium is not driven by traditional clienteles derived from market imperfections such as taxes, transaction costs, or institutional investment constraints, we find empirical evidence that demographic clienteles are an important source of the time-varying demand for dividend payers. In particular, we find that, as consistent with the behavioural life-cycle theory and the marginal opinion theory of stock price, the dividend premium is positively driven by demographic clientele variation represented by changes in the proportion of the older population. Our results are robust when controlled for the factors of investor sentiment, signalling, agency costs, tax clienteles, time trend, business cycle fluctuations and varying sample periods.