甘肃省农村小额人身保险试点工作开展情况调查

农民保障问题是我国社会保障体系建设的一个短板。近年来,随着国家在农村地区大力推行“新农合”和“新农保”,农民保障问题得到了较大改善。然而,国家的现行政策解决的只是农民的基本保障。对于低收入农民来说,如何在现有国家保障政策的基础上进一步提高自身的保障水平,增强抗风险能力,保住自己的劳动成果,是一个迫切需要解决的问题,对此,中国保监会于2008年选择部分省份启动了农村小额人身保险试点工作。     

农村养老模式探讨——将土地信托纳入农村养老保障体系

农村养老保障问题一直以来都备受社会关注,但目前农村养老保障制度并不完善,传统的家庭养老模式也日渐衰微,农村养老问题没有得到很好的解决。长久以来,农民被赋予了土地使用权,那么就应该让土地承担起一部分农民养老保障的功能。本文通过对农村养老保障现状的分析,并通过可行性探究,认为可以将土地信托方式纳入农村养老保障体系。     

农村养老模式探讨——将土地信托纳入农村养老保障体系

农村养老保障问题一直以来都备受社会关注,但目前农村养老保障制度并不完善,传统的家庭养老模式也日渐衰微,农村养老问题没有得到很好的解决。长久以来,农民被赋予了土地使用权,那么就应该让土地承担起一部分农民养老保障的功能。本文通过对农村养老保障现状的分析,并通过可行性探究,认为可以将土地信托方式纳入农村养老保障体系。     

助推海南“三农”绿色崛起的“农＋旅”信贷模式

“农＋旅”信贷模式,是一种依托农村社区农业、生态、文化等旅游资源,针对解决农民就业和持续增收,以“农＋旅”项目为融资平台实现市场化运作的信贷模式,在海南新农村建设和国际旅游岛建设中大有作为。推广该模式须解决四个问题：与国际旅游岛建设对接问题,保障农民权益问题,项目融资能力问题,创新信贷品种问题。     

我国住房保障模式选择与政策优化:政府如何权衡“倒U曲线”演变中的机会公平与结果均平?

本文从政府与市场关系视角,将世界上它国住房保障的实践划分为两种极端情形,即美国的自由市场模式和欧洲的社会市场模式,并运用实证分析方法,从政府支出角度研究住房保障与社会经济发展的相互关系及其运动规律,并论证了两种不同的保障模式之间的同一性和差异性,提出了政府住房保障支出水平的"倒U曲线"。然后根据研究揭示的住房保障经济规律,使用相关数据估算了我国住房保障支出占GDP比重的基准,并进一步通过政府支出基准与实际支出的比较,对我国现行住房保障模式进行了估判,进而探讨了制度和政策的可持续性问题。研究中我们形成了关于住房保障模式选择与政策优化的六点认识:(1)政府住房保障支出水平在一个国家通常会随社会经济的发展呈现出一个倒U曲线,我国目前正位于倒U曲线的前半段,这意味着,在未来相当长的时期内住房保障支出会继续增长。(2)注重机会公平的住房保障模式会增进效率,而注重结果均平的模式有可能损害效率,政府在住房保障模式的选择上,需要权衡机会公平与结果均平的关系。(3)我国目前还不具备选择注重机会公平的美国自由市场模式的市场经济条件,主要体现为结果均平的欧洲社会市场模式,原则上更加适合我国的国情与社会经济现状。(4)近年我国住房保障模式正在发生转变,实际上是从一度注重机会公平与资源配置效率为导向,转向了更为注重结果均平为导向的"双轨统筹"制度建设道路。(5)当前和今后我国面临的最大挑战是保持住房保障制度的可持续性以及住房保障政策的连续性。(6)有必要结合倒U曲线的演变轨迹,动态探索我国住房保障模式的优化问题,特别是注重把握在拐点前后把握好我国住房保障的政策组合。     

浅谈农村养老保险体系面临的问题与对策

养老保险的初衷,就是实现老有所养。长期以来,我国忽视对农村社会保障体系的建立,但随着经济社会的发展和人口城镇化步伐的加快,农村老年人口比重上升速度将持续快于城镇,家庭养老所具备的条件在逐渐的弱化,农村老年人的养老问题面临着巨大挑战。农民是我国最大的社会阶层和利益群体,也是最大的保障对象群体。研究解决好农民的养老保障问题,既是保障农民基本权利的客观需要,也是关系到农村政治、经济、社会能否稳定、持续发展的大问题。     

农民养老金制度：替代保护价收购的最佳政策选择

取消保护价收购是我国农村政策的重大调整，但政府支持农业发展、保护农民利益的责任应该不减反增，需要调整的是承担责任的方式和方法。从我国农村和整个国家现代化的长远战略需要看，尽快建立起农民养老金制度是最佳政策选择。目前，我国建立农民养老金制度的条件基本成熟，以产品换保障的方式，完全可以在不增加甚至减少财政负担的情况下，由农民定额缴纳其粮食产量的20%作为保险费，就既能保证国家粮食安全，又能建立起年积累额超过1500亿元的农民养老金制度。实现上述政策目标需要的只是将目前用于保护价收购的资金微调为对缴纳保险费农民的直接补贴。与此同时，建立这样的制度，最重要的是给农民机会，给农民提供一个建立农民养老金制度的思路和框架。中国农民的问题，从来都是依靠自身力量解决的。建立农民养老金制度将也不例外。     

论中国住房保障模式的选择

根据国家"十二五"规划,住房保障政策已成为我国的重点民生政策。如何更有效的实施住房保障政策受到了理论界和实务界的广泛关注。因此,建立高效公平的住房保障模式对于提高我国中低收入居民的福利具有重要意义。本文将结合美国住房保障模式的演进历史和我国住房保障政策执行的实际状况,分析我国的住房保障模式的选择问题。不同住房保障模式的理论比较住房保障模式一般分为两类:1.需求方补贴,也称货币化补     

我国农村社保发展问题研究

自我国从2006年1月1日起全部免除农业税以来,农民确实得到了很大的实惠,但由于改革开放的深化和我国经济的快速发展,农民的社保问题越来越成为一个全社会关注的问题。目前我国城乡居民的社保差距较大,我国尚不具备建立象发达国家那样健全完善的农村社会保障制度的条件,但是农民的社保关系到国家的稳定和经济的发展,当前我国在解决农民社保问题上可考虑我国国情,实行农业规模经营,将土地的经营权收归政府,收益由农民享有,以政府经营土地的收益来代替社会保障,解决农民的社会保障难题以及推进农业的规模经营。     

论宪法司法化

宪法作为公民基本权利的保障书,尽管自其制定时就被国家赋予了最高权威,但却不能被运用到一般司法程序中以解决违宪问题,也使得宪法保障公民权利的基本功能成为空谈。鉴于此,宪法司法化成为当今各国宪法制度的一种共同选择。我国也正致力于宪法司法化的改革,但由于各种阻碍因素一直不见成效。借鉴各国成功经验,在我国建立权力机关的违宪审查和一般法院的宪法诉讼相结合的模式是我国宪法司法化的必然选择。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.