The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics

In this paper, I consider modeling the effects of the macroeconomic determinants on the nominal exchange rate to be channeled through the transition probabilities in a Markovian process. The model posits that the deviation of the exchange rate from its fundamental value alters the market's belief in the probability of the process staying in certain regime next period. This paper further takes into account the ARCH effects of the volatility of the exchange rate. Empirical results generally confirm that fundamentals can affect the evolution of the dynamics of the exchange rate in a nonlinear way through the transition probabilities. In addition, I find that the volatility of the exchange rate is associated with significant ARCH effects which are subject to regime changes.     

The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries

This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU member states. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. At the same time, the recent evidence seems to suggest that following the global financial crisis, “hard peg” countries may have experienced a more severe adjustment process than “floaters”. The results are economically and statistically significant and robust.     

Corruption and anxiety in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines the relationship between individuals’ experience of corruption and their anxiety using microeconomic data from the Afrobarometer surveys. The results show a statistically significant and economically meaningful relationship in probit models using both an experience of corruption index and a simple dummy variable. Having to pay a bribe to obtain documents and permits, to avoid problems with the police or to access medical care are the scenarios in which this relationship is strongest. Some evidence is presented that an individual needs to experience such corruption more than ‘once or twice’ for these relationships to become evident.     

Land-price dynamics and macroeconomic fluctuations with nonseparable preferences

In this paper, we introduce a complementary relationship between consumption and labor hours by revising the household’s period utility function in Liu et al. (2013). The revision concomitantly allows for a finite Frisch elasticity of labor supply and a stronger consumption smoothing motive. We find that, in general, the estimation of Liu et al. (2013) is quite robust. In addition, the propagation mechanism of the credit constraint triggered by a housing demand shock still persists. However, the amplification effect of the credit constraint triggered by the housing demand shock on key macroeconomic variables is greatly muted. We also find that, except for land price fluctuations, the housing demand shock cannot act as the primary force to drive the fluctuations in other macroeconomic variables.     

Aggregate shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations: A bayesian approach

This paper describes Bayesian techniques for analysing the effects of aggregate shocks on macroeconomic time-series. Rather than calculate point estimates of the response of a time-series to an aggregate shock, we calculate the whole probability density function of the response and use Monte-Carlo or Gibbs sampling techniques to evaluate its properties. The proposed techniques impose identification restrictions in a way that includes the uncertainty in these restrictions, and thus are an improvement over traditional approaches that typically use least-squares techniques supplemented by bootstrapping. We apply these techniques in the context of two different models. A key finding is that measures of uncertainty, such as posterior standard deviations, are much larger than are their classical counterparts.     

The role of the informal sector in investment in Sub-Saharan Africa

For a long time economic researchers condemned the existence of a huge informal sector in economies, viewing it as a deterrent to investment, growth and development. This view is however being confronted with intense criticism particularly in developing countries where formal unemployment is rapidly growing and poverty widely spreading, which in turn is leading to an expanding informal sector. Thus alternative schools of thought that view the informal sector as a source of livelihood to the unemployed and poor have subsequently been developed. However, not much empirical work has been carried out to validate any of these theoretical claims, particularly in African economies. This paper attempts to fill this gap. The findings of the study indicate that there is a positive relationship between informal sector activities and investment. These results suggest a review of the standard thinking towards the role of the informal sector in development.     

Cointegration in a macroeconomic system

This paper investigates the long-run relationships within a set of six quarterly time-series on the Austrian economy by means of cointegration. After analysing the univariate properties, especially with respect to the appropriate seasonal filter, the maximum-likelihood method proposed by Johansen (1988) is applied to estimate and test the cointegrating relationships. We found three such relations, implying that the system is driven by three independent stochastic time trends. In a next stage we investigate whether the empirically determined cointegrating relationships are compatible with implications derived from the neoclassical growth model with exogenous stochastic technical progress. It is found that the Austrian data strongly reject the propositions that the real interest rate and the log ratios of consumption to output, investment to output, and the real gross wage sum to output are stationary.     

世界各国汇率安排现状与人民币汇率制度改革

改革人民币实际汇率制度势在必行。根据IMF对当前各国汇率安排的划分,借鉴世界各国汇率安 排的经验和教训,我国在近期宜选择在水平波幅内盯住的汇率制度,一两年以后再实行管理浮动。     

The role of governance in mobile phones for inclusive human development in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study assesses the synergy effects of governance in mobile phone penetration for inclusive human development in Sub-Saharan Africa with data for the period 2000–2012. It employs a battery of interactive estimation techniques, namely: Fixed effects, Generalised Method of Moments and Tobit regressions. Concepts of political (voice and accountability and political stability/no violence), economic (government effectiveness and regulation quality) and institutional (corruption-control and rule of law) governance are employed. The following findings are established. The previously apparent positive correlation between mobile phones and inclusive development can be extended to a positive effect. Although political governance is overwhelmingly not significant across estimated models, the average effects from economic governance are higher relative to institutional governance. On the interactions between mobile phones and governance variables, while none are apparent in Fixed effects regressions, there are significant synergy effects in Generalised Method of Moments and Tobit estimations, notably, from: regulation quality in the former and political stability, voice and accountability and rule of law in the latter. There is consistent evidence of convergence in inclusive human development. Policy implications are discussed.     

The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the stock market and the affecting mechanisms: Evidence from BRICS countries

Using data from BRICS countries, we apply the TVP-VAR model to analyze the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on their stock markets and the mechanisms leading to those effects. We find that for BRICS countries, there are similarities as well as differences in the extent, direction, and duration of the effects of exchange rate changes on the stock market. As for the affecting mechanisms, Brazil is almost entirely driven by the financial account, while the current account is dominant for Russia, whereas India, China, and South Africa depend on both mechanisms.     

The effect of economic growth on banking system performance: An interregional and comparative study of Sub-Saharan Africa and developed economies

As an important part of the financial sector, banking systems play a critical role in economic development as well as in improving the quality of life of the people of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, little evidence exists in the literature about the performance of the banking systems in SSA compared with developed economies. This paper investigates the effects of economic development on banking performance across 23 SSA countries and 14 developed countries between 1981 and 2018. Using estimation models such as feasible general least squares, fixed-effects estimation with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, and system and difference generalized method of moments, our findings show that in SSA as a whole, economic development has a positive impact on commercial bank lending, raises lending rates, increases the amount of domestic credit to the private sector (DCPS), and reduces the number of nonperforming loans (NPLs). In developed countries, economic development has a positive impact on lending rates, DCPS, and the number of NPLs. However, although economic development in developed economies has mostly positive effects on banking performance, SSA countries have more performance issues in banking as a whole and in regional pockets. A careful reassessment of SSA’s interregional banking system is therefore highly recommended. An increase in the number of NPLs in East and Southern Africa, a decline in deposit rates offered in Southern, West, and Central Africa, and increasing real interest rates in SSA despite economic growth are some of the concerns that require careful reassessment and policy adjustments.     

The role of the separation of democratic powers on structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa

The objective of this paper is to assess the effects of the separation of democratic powers on structural transformation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, reducing the dependence of the judiciary and the legislature on the executive branch is likely to promote labor reallocation, innovation, and human capital and thus improve structural change and intra-industry productivity, which are the two components of structural transformation. Data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project (Ziblatt and al., 2021) and Mensah and Szirmai (2018) allow us to illustrate our points using a vector auto regression (VAR) model on a panel of 18 SSA countries. Our results show that both legislative dependence and judicial dependence on the executive branch have a negative effect on structural change and intra-industry productivity in the short and long run; but the effect of the judiciary is more decisive than that of the legislature in the short and long run. On the other hand, judicial dependence causes legislative dependence, while public sector corruption and educational inequalities cause judicial and legislative dependence on the executive. Our results argue for the independence of these two branches from the executive, especially the judiciary.     

Gradual financial integration and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging market economies: evidence from China

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - This paper extends the conventional DSGE literature by developing a New Keynesian DSGE model featuring imperfect financial markets with various...     

Current account and real effective exchange rate misalignments in Central Eastern EU countries: An update using the macroeconomic balance approach

We make an assessment of the current account and price competitiveness of the Central Eastern European countries that joined the EU, using data up to 2016. Foreign capital flows, fiscal balance and relative output growth seem to play a crucial role in explaining the current account balance. The real effective exchange rate gaps behave in accord with the current account misalignments, which clearly display cyclical behaviour. When foreign direct investments are introduced as a determinant, the misalignments are larger in boom periods (positive misalignments), whereas the negative misalignments are smaller in magnitude. Overall, the countries have moved closer to their equilibria since 2010.     

Housing transactions and macroeconomic fluctuations: a case study of England and Wales

This paper focuses on the drivers for transactions of residential properties using England and Wales as a case study. We present a non-technical discussion of a theoretical framework that rationalizes the positive correlation of income, housing prices and housing transactions over the business cycle. We then extend the theoretical framework to explain how the credit market liberalization of the early 1980s, demographic changes and construction activity have affected the trend in housing transactions and contributed to making the 1980s a period of exceptionally high transaction levels in England and Wales. We present evidence in support of the view that housing demand fluctuations have been the key driver of housing transactions, in particular, changes in housing demand from first-time buyers.     

A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa

This paper uses large Factor Models (FMs), which accommodate a large cross-section of macroeconomic time series for forecasting the per capita growth rate, inflation, and the nominal short-term interest rate for the South African economy. The FMs used in this study contain 267 quarterly series observed over the period 1980Q1-2006Q4. The results, based on the RMSEs of one- to four-quarter-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from 2001Q1 to 2006Q4, indicate that the FMs tend to outperform alternative models such as an unrestricted VAR, Bayesian VARs (BVARs) and a typical New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model in forecasting the three variables under consideration, hence indicating the blessings of dimensionality.     

Large shocks,small shocks,and economic fluctuations: Outliers in macroeconomic time series

We analyse fifteen post-World War II US macroeconomic time series using a modified outlier identification procedure based on Tsay (1988a). ‘Large shocks’ appear to be present in all the series we examined. Furthermore, there are three basic outlier patterns: (1) outliers seem to be associated with business cycles, (2) outliers are clustered together—both over time and across series, (3) there appears to be a dichotomy between outlier behaviour of real versus nominal series. Also, after controlling for outliers, much of the evidence of non-linearity in many of the time series is eliminated.     

Political Instability and Economic Growth: Implications of Coup Events in Sub-Saharan Africa

The study examines the differential roles of various elite political instability (PI) events—successful coups d'etat, abortive coups, or coup plots—in the growth of Sub-Saharan Africa. It analyzes World Bank economic statistics and data on the incidence of coups d'etat for 31 countries in a cross-country augmented production function framework that incorporates PI events as well as labor and capital as arguments. It finds that abortive coups, rather than successful coups, had the greatest adverse impact on economic growth over the 1960–1986 period. Coup plots were also observed to be growth-inhibiting. This deleterious "direct" effect of PI is observed to be channeled via the deterioration in the marginal productivity of capital, regardless of coup event. While abortive coups negatively influenced economic growth monotonically, however, the impacts of successful coups and coup plots appeared to be non-monotonic: negative generally but positive at very low levels of investment.     

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A nonlinear analysis

Using the threshold regression model, we examine the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and the mediating role of FDI absorptive capacity, on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. We find that the threshold level of FDI inflows per person is approximately US$ 44.67 per annum. For FDI to have an appreciable impact on economic growth, countries must have minimum capacity to absorb the growth-enhancing benefits of FDI. For instance, the technology gap between the hosted foreign enterprises and domestic enterprises should be no less than 0.6904. Thus, achieving the FDI threshold level is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for economic growth. Some countries use tax incentives to improve FDI inflows. We argue that such incentives may be counterproductive at low levels of FDI inflows: FDI coefficient estimates below the lowest threshold level are negative, implying that the higher costs of such incentives exceed the potential benefits availed by FDI’s direct contribution to economic output and spillovers.