Do natural disasters and geopolitical risks matter for cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns?

This paper examines whether U.S. and home country geopolitical risks (GPRs) and disasters matter for the returns from cross-border trading of country exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by employing a quantile regression approach. Using monthly returns of 125 country-specific ETFs traded in the U.S. from 38 countries over the period 2004–2018, we find that the highest averages of total deaths, total damage values, total affected, and GPRs are all in developing countries. United States disasters have comparatively more significant impacts than home country disasters on ETF returns as does the salient influences of U.S. investor sentiments, supporting the market sentiment hypothesis. Moreover, U.S. and home country GPRs and disasters also have predictive power on returns. The contemptuous effects and predictive powers of GPRs and disasters are asymmetric across quantiles. The influences of home country GPRs are more salient than the GRPS of U.S., implying that ETFs can be a safe haven during U.S. geopolitical risks. Additionally, our results show that the impacts of disasters on returns can be negative and/or positive, implying the possibility of disasters exuding an impetus and/or risk to country ETFs.     

The shocks of natural disasters on NPLs: Global evidence

The relationship between natural disasters and NPLs is of significant importance in the natural disaster economics field. Thus, this research investigates the effects of natural disasters on non-performing loans (NPLs) using panel data covering 101 countries from 1996 to 2017. We introduce interaction terms between natural disasters and different financial risks to represent the moderating effects of natural disasters through such risks. Several conclusions arise from the empirical results. (1) Natural disasters produce significant effects on NPLs both in current year and five-period lag terms. (2) Natural disasters increase NPLs through five kinds of financial risks, and the moderating effects are statistically significant. (3) The effects of natural disasters on NPLs present significant heterogeneity between OECD and non-OECD countries. From these results, we put forward several policy implications.     

Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?

Recent empirical literature has found a negative relationship between income per capita and measures of risk from natural disaster, supportive of logic that higher incomes allow countries to mitigate disaster risk. We argue that behavioral changes at the micro level in response to increasing income (such as location choice and extent of costly abatement activity) may lead to a non-linear relationship between aggregate incomes and disaster damages, where the risks increase with income before they decrease. In a country-year panel data set, we show that disaster risk associated with flooding, landslides and windstorms increases with income up to GDP per capita levels of $5044, $3360, and $4688 per year respectively and decrease thereafter. Such non-linear impacts are absent for other disaster types such as extreme temperature events and earthquakes where the links between human behavioral choices and exposure to risk are not as strong. From a policy perspective, this suggests that for the least developed countries, the dual goals of disaster risk prevention and economic development cannot be assumed to be complementary for all forms of natural disaster. In addition to allocating resources to manage disaster risk, the poorest nations may have to be more proactive in enacting policies that alter the behavioral choices of citizens that impact a country's exposure to natural disaster risk.     

完善我国自然灾害应急体系

自然灾害作为突发公共事件的一种,对社会生命财产造成巨大损失,所以建立自然灾害应急体系显得尤为重要。本文通过借鉴发达国家自然灾害应急管理体系的经验,对完善中国自然灾害应急管理体系提出了几点建议,以便发挥更为积极的职责与作用,建立专门的自然灾害应急管理机构,使国家在突发事件中损失较小。     

Coronavirus: Short-term pain but strong rebound likely

• ▪ Attention has understandably focused on limiting the damage from the short-term effects of the coronavirus outbreak. But it's likely that, once disruption and uncertainty fade, the rebound in activity will be strong. It's important for firms to position themselves for such a recovery.
• ▪ Historical evidence supports this view. In the past 200 years, short recessions have typically been followed by robust recovery. Long-term impacts from natural disasters have generally only been evident for specific hazards. Except for AIDS, longer-term pandemic effects also appear to have been contained.
• ▪ Surveys during the 2003 SARS and 2009 influenza outbreaks highlight one explanation for time-limited impacts. Public fears increased alongside rising infection rates, but they dissipated promptly as outbreaks came under control.
• ▪ Our modelling is consistent with these stylised facts. In our coronavirus pandemic scenario, global growth grinds to a halt in Q2 2020 but then rebounds to a rapid pace within a year. With much of the initial output loss recovered in a relatively short period of time, long-term impacts are limited.
• ▪ But there are risks to this view. The period of disruption could be longer than anticipated, depending on the potential spread and seasonality of COVID-19 and policy actions to mitigate the fallout. Opinion polls also highlight the potential risk of larger, more persistent effects for some countries.
• ▪ Moreover, coronavirus-related weakness and associated financial distress could expose other key vulnerabilities - for example related to deteriorating corporate sector balance sheets and fragile trade relations. These would be expected to have persistent effects on global activity over the coming years

     

THE GROWTH AFTERMATH OF NATURAL DISASTERS

This paper traces the yearly response of gross domestic product growth—both aggregated and disaggregated into its agricultural and non‐agricultural components—to four types of natural disasters: droughts, floods, earthquakes, and storms. The paper uses a methodological approach based on pooling the experiences of various countries over time. It consists of vector autoregressions in the presence of endogenous variables and exogenous shocks (VARX), applied to a panel of cross‐country and time series data. The analysis finds heterogeneous effects on a variety of dimensions. First, the effects of natural disasters are stronger on developing than on advanced countries. Second, not all natural disasters are alike in terms of the growth response they induce, and some can even have positive effects on economic growth. Third, severe disasters often carry much worse effects than moderate effects do. Fourth, the timing of the growth response varies with both the type of natural disaster and the sector of economic activity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model*

This note shows that the inoperability input–output model (IIM) estimates only a part of mainly the negative indirect economic impacts of disasters, whereas it neglects most of the positive indirect impacts. This means that the IIM is not suited to prioritize industries for policy interventions that aim at reducing the negative impacts of such disasters. Besides, this note shows that the application of the IIM is problematic and tends to overestimate the subset of impacts that the model is able to quantify. Finally, we identify two approaches that much better capture the variety of different disaster impacts.     

我国城市自然灾害与应急管理体系研究

对我国城市面对的突发自然灾害形势和特点进行了分析,认为我国城市自然灾害风险高,具有灾害形势复杂、救灾工作难度大的特点,目前我国城市灾害应急体系建设具备法制、体制、预案、人才基础,但也存在法制不健全、机制不完善、灾害意识淡薄的问题,提出了完善体制机制、健全机构、提高承灾能力、增强居民应对能力的相关对策和建议。     

The nexus between country risk and exchange rate regimes: A global investigation

Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984–2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.     

自然灾害风险评估综述

近年来,自然灾害风险评估研究学科发展迅速,学术界对其理论中的一些问题存在着不同的看法。本文对自然灾害风险的定义、自然灾害系统、灾害风险的形成机理、危险性、脆弱性认识等方面内容进行归纳、阐述;通过列举分析自然灾害风险评估领域常用的一些数学方法,指出自然灾害评估定量化的趋势已经愈加明显;多灾种综合风险评估由于其更贴近现实的特点,决定了它风险评估学科未来发展的趋势。     

考虑次生灾害的多资源多受灾点资源配置模型

重大的自然灾害往往会伴随一些次生灾害的发生,文中运用情景-分析理论考虑了灾害发生后可能出现的灾害演化,即次生灾害的出现,运用P-中位问题理论建立了一个考虑次生灾害的两阶段最优化的多资源多受灾点资源配置模型,目标函数为资源配置点到受灾点的距离和相应的配置量乘积最小。     

工程项目自然风险管理研究

中国是世界上自然灾害最严重的国家之一,灾害的多发性决定了其对工程建设项目具有不可忽视的影响。并且,最近几年我国各种自然灾害、极端气候的发生更加频繁,范围更加广泛,影响更加严重,所以在进行项目的建设时有必要加强对自然风险的管理。本文,首先对自然风险和风险管理进行了简单的介绍,然后从项目的质量、成本、工期、安全的角度浅谈了自然风险对项目的影响;接着从风险管理的角度,用定量和定性的方法对风险的识别和估计、风险评价、风险应对、风险的决策等方面对自然风险的管理进行分析和说明,最后得出一些结论和看法。     

The effect of the Rana Plaza disaster on shareholder wealth of retailers: Implications for sourcing strategies and supply chain governance

Supply chain and reputational risks are often assumed to motivate firms to source production in developed, high-cost countries rather than developing, low-cost countries. To examine this assumption, we provide evidence from the collapse of the Rana Plaza building on April 24, 2013, which with its 1133 fatalities and 2438 injuries is seen as one of the worst industrial accidents in history. Do markets reactive negatively enough to such events to motivate firms to shift their sourcing strategy? We analyze the stock market reaction to the Rana Plaza disaster in the Bangladeshi ready-made garment industry to address this question. Our analysis is based on a sample of 39 publicly traded global apparel retailers with significant garment sourcing in Bangladesh. Stock market reaction to retailers on the day of the Rana Plaza disaster is negative, but its magnitude and significance dissipate by the following day. We find no evidence of significant stock market reaction during the 11 trading days (approximately two weeks in calendar time) following the disaster. Retailers responded to the disaster by developing two different agreements to improve factory and worker safety in Bangladesh – the Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh (AFBSB), and the Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety (ABWS). We find no evidence of significant stock market reaction to the announcements of the AFBSB and the ABWS. The insignificant negative economic impact from the Rana Plaza disaster suggests that retailers have little economic incentive to move sourcing out of Bangladesh or other low-cost countries so as to reduce the risk of being involved in such events. We discuss the implications of our results for retailers, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), garment factory owners in Bangladesh, the Bangladeshi government, and academic researchers.     

基于反馈控制原理的应急物资分配动态决策过程分析

随着灾害应急物流系统快速响应机制的建立,应急物资分配在降低自然灾害的影响方面体现出重要作用。应急物资需求具有突发性和动态性等特征,资源的分配是一个动态的过程。基于此借鉴反馈控制原理构建应急物资分配决策模型,对灾害应急物流中的应急物资分配动态决策过程进行分析。     

自然灾害风险监测与预警技术支撑体系研究

近几年来我国自然灾害频发,加之次生灾害的影响,严重威胁老百姓的生命财产安全和社会稳定,自然灾害风险监测与预警成为防灾减灾的核心组成部分。文章重点探讨了风险监测预警的关键要素、技术支撑体系构成以及基础平台的建设。     

城市规划中应重视的要点论述

城市总体规划的科学与否,在很大程度上影响着城市土地价格。同时在城市规划上要注重地质灾害的因素,我国是地质灾害多发的国家,地质灾害种类多、分布广、活动频繁、危害重,是世界上地质灾害最为严重的国家之一。从多年的实践中了解到,对于地质灾害的防治必须要以防为主,治为辅的方针,不断提高对地质灾害的评估和对症下药的作用。     

我国农业灾害保险补偿机制研究

我国是一个农业大国,又是一个自然灾害多发国。近几年由于自然灾害造成的损失,尤其是对农业生产造成的损失尤为严重。传统的风险补偿机制不仅无法弥补灾害损失,还会严重影响整个经济和社会的发展。通过分析我国农业灾害的损失情况,指出农业灾害保险补偿机制具有的重要意义。     

Earthquake triggered networked risk and response: based on relevant literature

Death, injury, conflict, and disorder caused by natural and man-made disasters have resulted in significant challenges to good governance and impeded the goal of achieving the benign development of society. This paper uses a particular method for analyzing the research situation and identifying current trends and focuses. It then proceeds to explore future research needs. The study finds that future researchers will shift their emphasis from the risks caused by natural disasters to those arising from man-made disasters; meanwhile, the study will consider the complex systems of interaction to understand causality. The objectives of management, hence, should change from investigating the impacts of risks to crisis control. Eventually, an evolutionary disaster-based social-risk framework is established, and some suggestions for future research are provided.     

论自然灾害应急物流管理体系的构建

中国是世界上受自然灾害影响非常严重的国家之一,应急物流是救灾应急管理中必不可少的内容和环节.自然灾害应急物流管理体系,是为了实现在突发自然灾害环境下对应急物资、人员、信息和财产等进行有效组织和保障而建立的综合管理体系.文章根据我国目前突发自然灾害应急物流的实际情况,以自然灾害应急物流管理体系为研究对象,对自然灾害背景下应急物流管理体系的构建进行了研究,同时还提出了促进应急物流管理体系建设的一些建议.     

DISASTROUS ANTI‐ECONOMICS AND THE ECONOMICS OF DISASTERS

This article surveys and synthesises some of the research on the political economy of natural disasters. While people tend to support government intervention to reduce prices or otherwise aid disaster recovery, research shows that government organisations are often corrupt and ineffective. Further, since people tend to mis‐identify the causes of (for example) gasoline price increases after natural disasters, government intervention after a disaster is likely to do more harm than good.