Why don't firms export more? Product quality and Colombian plants

Exporting firms around the world ship only a small fraction of their output overseas. For firms in a large country, such as the United States, this behavior can be explained by the existence of a large domestic market. For firms in a small lower income country, such as Colombia, the lower share of exports remains a puzzle. This paper begins by illustrating the failure of current models to explain plant export patterns in Colombia. Even models that do well in describing the US export distribution fail when confronted with the Colombian data. In response to this puzzle, this paper suggests that Colombia's export distribution can be explained with a two-dimensional productivity space where output productivity is considered separately from quality productivity. Predictions of this theory are tested on Colombian plant level data from 1981–1991. Overall, product quality is shown to be a significant factor in explaining the tendency for Colombian plants to under-export manufactured goods to the United States.     

Comparative advantage and strategic specialization

This paper shows that a strong comparative advantage is necessary for free trade and specialization in a 2 × 2 symmetric Ricardian model to be achieved in a Nash equilibrium. Governments strategically control labor distribution across industries, and representative agents maximize Cobb–Douglas utilities. A Nash equilibrium with complete specialization is achieved if and only if relative productivity exceeds a key value of 3, which is considered a very large number based on previous empirical studies. This paper also introduces a two‐stage game where each government chooses labor distribution first and then tariffs. In this two‐stage game, complete specialization is never achieved for any relative productivity level. Finally, by generalizing the Cobb–Douglas model into constant elasticity of substitution (CES) preferences, I show that if immiserizing growth effects exist, complete specialization could not be achieved for any level of relative productivity.     

Sources of Australia's Productivity Revival

Australia's annual rate of multifactor productivity growth accelerated a full percentage point in the 1990s. The fact that most other OECD countries did not share this experience suggests that domestic factors must have provided at least a major part of the explanation. This article establishes six stylised facts about Australia's 1990s productivity performance and then surveys available analytical studies to find explanations for them. With few aggregate models available to shed light on recent output and productivity growth, the survey also covers cross-country, industry and firm-level studies. Despite various shortcomings in data and specification of models, a reasonably clear picture emerges. The accumulation of physical and human capital has laid a long-term foundation for productivity growth. On top of this foundation, the greater openness of the economy to trade and investment, increased R&D activity and a strong uptake and innovative use of ICT have been specific sources of the productivity revival. There is also evidence that policy and institutional factors have been important in driving and enabling these determinants.     

Foreign direct investment as a signal

This paper models oligopolistic competition among potential multinational firms in an environment of firm heterogeneity, incomplete information on costs, and strategic interactions. We show that foreign direct investment is more likely if it can serve as a signal of productivity in an environment of incomplete information as firms would like to avoid sending a low productivity signal. Our model shows that this effect is strong enough such that foreign direct investment can be an optimal foreign entry mode even if trade costs are zero.     

The relationship between total factor productivity growth and employment: some evidence from a sample of European Regions

This paper provides a structural estimation of an equilibrium matching model with exogenous productivity growth on a sample of European Regions for the period 1976–2000. Using a three-stage least squares procedure, I estimate a simultaneous equation model for employment, wages and capital stock. The importance of the study of the relationship between growth and employment is due to the fact that the sign of this connection is not clear-cut. Theoretical models imply that the impact of productivity on employment is ambiguous. Furthermore, the empirical contributions are still not so many to reach a strong conclusion on the sign of the relationship above. This paper finds that the impact of productivity growth on employment is negative in the short-run and this effect remains negative even in the long-run. The implication of my results is that all new technology is embodied in new jobs and job creation plays no role in the employment dynamics of the sample I have considered.     

Estimating mobility rates in search models with initial condition problems

Previous empirical work on job search has proposed different approaches to estimating mobility rates assumed in models of search. However, these methods either only work for specific models of wage determination, or else require that we know the initial distribution of productivity for workers in our sample. In this paper we show it is possible to estimate mobility rates without having to restrict attention to models in which wages are constant over the course of a job or to assume that the initial distribution of productivity is known. More generally, the approach we propose allows us to freely estimate one degree of unobserved heterogeneity, be it in initial conditions or mobility rates. Applying our results to data from the NLSY suggests that the theoretical restrictions on the initial distribution of productivity implied by the standard model can overstate the extent of frictions to upward mobility.     

International Trade,Offshoring and Heterogeneous Firms

Recent trade models determine the equilibrium distribution of firm‐level efficiency endogenously and show that freer trade shifts the distribution towards higher average productivity because of entry and exit of firms. These models ignore the possibility that freer trade also alters the firm‐size distribution via international firm migration (offshoring); firms must, by assumption, produce in their “birth nation.” We show that when firms are allowed to switch locations, new productivity effects arise. Freer trade induces the most efficient small‐nation firms to move to the large nation. The large country gets an “extra helping” of the most efficient firms while the small nation's firm‐size distribution is truncated on both ends. This reinforces the large‐nation productivity gain while reducing or even reversing the small‐nation productivity gain. The small nation is nevertheless better off allowing firm migration.     

Revisiting the Porter hypothesis: an empirical analysis of Green innovation for the Netherlands

ABSTRACT

Almost all empirical research that has attempted to assess the validity of the Porter hypothesis (PH) has started from reduced-form models, for example, single-equation models for estimating the contribution of environmental regulation to productivity. This paper follows a structural approach that allows testing what is known in the literature as the ‘weak’ and the ‘strong’ version of the PH. Our ‘Green Innovation’ model includes three types of eco-investments to explain differences in the incidence of two types of eco-innovation, which are allowed to affect labor productivity. We allow for complementarity between the two types of eco-innovations. Using a comprehensive panel of Dutch manufacturing firm-level data we estimate the relative importance of environmental regulations on eco-investment and eco-innovations. The results of our analysis show a strong corroboration of the weak and a nuanced corroboration of the strong version of the PH.     

Malmquist indices of productivity change in Portuguese banking: The deregulation period

This paper will evaluate productivity change in Portuguese banking using the Malmquist productivity index. The results show that between 1990 and 1997, banks in Portugal witnessed increased productivity and strong technological progress. Both small and large banks experienced higher productivity and technological change scores, while mid-sized institutions are putting more effort into catching-up policies. Rural banks have experienced strong productivity growth and are catching up with the best practices but lower levels of technological change. Urban banks show higher productivity growth and technological change levels. Government-owned banks have experienced lower levels of productivity change. Finally, the asset per employee ratio shows a positive correlation with the productivity scores, suggesting that this simple index is a good proxy for productivity.     

Sorting by search intensity

In this paper, I characterize matching in an on-the-job search model with endogenous search intensity, heterogeneous workers and firms, and match surplus is shared between workers and firms through bargaining. I provide proof of existence and uniqueness of steady state equilibrium. Given equally efficient matched and unmatched search, the worker skill conditional distribution of firm productivity over matches is stochastically increasing (decreasing) in worker skill if the production function is supermodular (submodular). I also show that this strong notion of sorting does not obtain everywhere for the firm productivity conditional match distribution.     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.     

Firms’ leverage and labour productivity: a quantile approach in Portuguese firms

We show that the leverage of Portuguese firms tends to negatively affect its labour productivity for firms with relatively lower labour productivity but to positively affect this variable for firms in the right-hand side of the productivity distribution. This is particularly important in a country where labour productivity is persistently lower compared with the richer countries in Europe. Thus, we have concluded that, controlling for the usual effects, increasing leverage cannot be a solution for the less productive (and consequently the majority) of Portuguese firms.     

Entrepreneurial competition and its impact on the aggregate economy

This paper models entrepreneurship as the entrepreneur’s information processing activity in order to predict changes in demand and reallocate resources. The results show that allocative efficiency—and therefore aggregate productivity—increases through intensified competition by entrepreneurs grasping at opportunities. This fierce competition leads to price reductions that result in the improvement of measured aggregate productivity. The price reduction also forces relatively less able entrepreneurs to become workers. As resources are then dealt with only by relatively talented entrepreneurs, this selection effect also increases aggregate productivity. The paper also discusses how the selection effect influences the distribution of firm size.      

Dualism and cross-country growth regressions

This paper develops empirical growth models suitable for dual economies, and studies the relationship between structural change and economic growth. Changes in the structure of employment will raise aggregate productivity when the marginal product of labor varies across sectors. The models in the paper incorporate this effect in a more flexible way than previous work. Estimates of the models imply sizeable marginal product differentials, and indicate that the reallocation of labor makes a significant contribution to the international variation in productivity growth.     

Second thoughts on the exporter productivity premium

Abstract Contrary to the prevailing interpretation, this paper shows that the central models of trade with heterogeneous firms ( Melitz 2003 ; Bernard et al. 2003 ) exhibit ambiguous predictions for the exporter productivity premium. This prospect arises because of differences between theoretical and empirical representations of firm productivity. Instead of marginal productivity, we examine in both models the theoretical equivalent of empirically observable productivity (value‐added per employee). Given the presence of fixed export costs or heterogeneous mark‐ups and trade costs, the observable productivity of exporters in proximity to the export‐indifferent firm turns out to be lower than that of non‐exporters; that is, the productivity distributions overlap. The paper reviews empirical literature that reports non‐positive exporter productivity premia in firm‐level data and discusses implications for empirical research on exporter performance, including learning and the role of non‐parametric regressions (stochastic dominance, quantile regressions), fixed costs, and productivity distributions.     

Volatility in productivity and the impact on unemployment

Volatility, and the uncertainty it creates, has long been recognized as a factor in economic decision making. Since hiring occurs before shocks to productivity are realized, firms’ investment in new labour is inherently risky. How large a role uncertainty in productivity has on aggregate unemployment is an empirical question that we attempt to answer. In this paper we measure the impact of higher volatility in labour productivity on the unemployment rate in the U.S. economy using a SVAR-GARCH-M model. Using the conditional standard deviation of productivity innovations from a multivariate GARCH model to measure uncertainty, we provide compelling evidence that unemployment increases with volatility. This estimated relative effect is actually larger for positive productivity shocks leading to unemployment declines only 60% as large as would have occurred using models that exclude uncertainty.     

Engines of growth. Innovation and productivity in industry groups

The diversity of technological activities that contribute to growth in labour productivity is examined in this article for manufacturing and services industries in eight major EU countries. We test the relevance of two “engines of growth”, i.e., the strategies of technological competitiveness (based on innovation in products and markets) and cost competitiveness (relying on innovation in processes and machinery) and their impact on economic performance. We propose models for the determinants of changes in labour productivity and we carry out empirical tests for both the whole economy and for the four Revised Pavitt classes that group manufacturing and services industries with distinct patterns of innovation. Tests are carried out by pooling industries, countries and three time periods, using innovation survey data from CIS 2, 3 and 4, linked to economic variables. The results confirm the specificity of the two “engines of growth”; economic performances in European industries appear as the result of different innovation models, with strong specificities of the four Revised Pavitt classes.     

循环经济与低碳经济的关系分析——基于资源生产率

循环经济和低碳经济都是实现可持续发展的生产方式和生活模式,发展循环经济和低碳经济的根本共同点在于均需要提高广义资源生产率(生态效率),不同点在于实现可持续发展的途径和突破点等不同。本文基于资源产出率的理论分析、情景分析和实证研究,探讨了通过发展循环经济促进碳减排的途径。本文认为,通过提高资源生产率来提高碳生产率是可行的,其效果是资源效率效应和资源结构效应的叠加,可以此表征循环经济和低碳经济的相互关系。最后,我国1990—2005年的数据进行了实证分析。     

Voting under ignorance of job skills of unemployed: the overtaxation bias

Usual models on voting over basic income–flat tax schedules rest on the assumption that voters know the whole distribution of skills even if at equilibrium some individuals do not work. If individuals’ productivity remains unknown until they work, it may be more convincing to assume that voters have only beliefs about the distribution of skills and that a learning process takes place. In this paper, at each period, individuals vote according to their beliefs which are updated when getting new information from the job market. The voting process converges towards some steady-state equilibrium that depends on both the true distribution of skills and the initial beliefs. The equilibrium tax rate is higher than (or equal to) the tax rate achieved in the perfect information framework. An illustration is provided on French data: if voters are over-pessimistic as to the potential productivity of unemployed people, majority voting may lock the economy in an “informational trap” with a high tax rate and a high level of inactivity.     

Can International Productivity Differences Alone Account for the US Current Account Deficits?

An influential explanation for the recent rise in the US current account deficit is the boom in US productivity. As US productivity surged in the mid-1990s, capital was attracted to the US to take advantage of the higher real returns. Using a two-country general-equilibrium model, this paper quantitatively shows that the gap in productivity growth between the US and the "rest of the world" cannot explain the US current account deficits, especially in the 1980s and the 2000s. This is because on a GDP-weighted basis, the "rest of the world" actually had higher productivity growth during these periods, and standard macroeconomic models would predict an outflow of funds from the US to the rest of the world, and a consequent US current account surplus . We show that changes in global financial integration can help explain this anomaly in US current account behavior.