社会保障制度改革的国际借鉴及其完善

发达国家社会保障制度模式及改革措施为我国进一步完善现行的社会保障制度提供了借鉴。建立与我国经济发展水平相适应的社会保障体系，开征社会保险税，设立社会保障预算，加快立法建设是改革的必然选择。     

Labor income dynamics at business-cycle frequencies: Implications for portfolio choice

Young agents with low wealth-income ratios counter factually hold more stock than young, rich agents and old agents using the standard portfolio choice model with i.i.d. stock returns and labor income. This paper matches the countercyclical volatility and procyclical mean of U.S. labor income and finds that, consistent with U.S. data, young, poor agents now hold less stock than both young, rich agents and old agents, and no stock a large fraction of the time. Our results suggest that the predictability of labor income growth at a business-cycle frequency, particularly the countercyclical variation in volatility, plays an important role in a young agent's decision making about her portfolio's stock holding.     

对劳动税楔核算指标在我国应用情况的分析

劳动税楔大小直接决定着工薪阶层劳动税负的高低。本文简要分析了OECD成员国劳动税楔现状及特点,重点核算了我国的劳动税楔水平,在此基础上提出我国可以借鉴的建议。     

Agriculture and aggregate productivity: A quantitative cross-country analysis

A decomposition of aggregate labor productivity based on internationally comparable data reveals that a high share of employment and low labor productivity in agriculture are mainly responsible for low aggregate productivity in poor countries. Using a two-sector general-equilibrium model, we show that differences in economy-wide productivity, barriers to modern intermediate inputs in agriculture, and barriers in the labor market generate large cross-country differences in the share of employment and labor productivity in agriculture. The model implies a factor difference of 10.8 in aggregate labor productivity between the richest and the poorest 5% of the countries in the world, leaving the unexplained factor at 3.2. Overall, this two-sector framework performs much better than a single-sector growth model in explaining observed differences in international productivity.     

中国城镇失业保险的供求矛盾及对策研究

失业保险是指个人在失去工作或等待就业期间能从政府或社会得到保证基本生活需要的物质帮助。我国的失业保险制度从无到有逐渐发展壮大到今天,虽然已初步形成体系,但伴随着我国失业人口的与日俱增,现行的失业保险供给远远满足不了实际需求,在政府资金缺口的约束下,这一供求矛盾还将继续存在甚至有扩大的趋势。将失业保险制度的创新与促进就业的政策措施相结合,对于解决城镇失业保险的供求矛盾,实现标本兼治有着重要的意义。     

普惠型医疗保险发展:实践困境与优化方向

近年来,普惠型医疗保险成为多层次医疗保障体系发展的一大热点。文章首先介绍了中国普惠型医疗保险的发展现状及主要特点,其次通过对国内部分保险公司线上及线下调研,发现当前普惠型医疗保险发展面临配套法律法规有待健全、市场认可度普遍偏低、可持续经营能力不强、保险效果低水平重复、相关主体联动不足等困境。进一步分析美国、英国、德国、新加坡相关经验,提出具体的优化路径:以优化顶层设计为立足点,提高保险规制水平;以强化市场环境建设为切入点,提升市场认可度;以优化运行模式为突破点,激发保险生命力;以设计差异化产品为关键点,强化保险增补性;以建立联通机制为动力点,提高相关主体协同度。     

Maximum fee versus child benefit: a welfare analysis of Swedish child-care fee reform

The effects of a recent Swedish child-care fee reform are compared with those of an alternative reform, increased child benefits. The fee reform implied considerably decreased fees and was intended to increase both labor supply among parents and their economic well-being. We estimate labor supply effects using a discrete choice labor supply model, and simulate behavioral responses to the changes. We find positive, but small, effects on labor supply from reduced fees, while increased child benefits would make single mothers decrease their labor supply. On the other hand, increased child benefits would make income distribution more equal. We make a social welfare comparison and conclude that for plausible values of inequality aversion, the alternative reform would have been preferred to the implemented fee reform. The views expressed in the paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Swedish Ministry of Finance.     

Labor market reform and price stability: An application to the Euro Area

Central bankers frequently suggest that labor market reform may be beneficial for inflation management. This paper investigates this topic by simulating the effects of reductions in firing costs and unemployment benefits on inflation volatility in the Euro Area, using an estimated New Keynesian model with search and matching frictions. Qualitatively, changes in labor market policies alter the volatility of inflation in response to shocks, by affecting the volatility of the three components of real marginal costs (hiring costs, firing costs and wage costs). Quantitatively, we find, however, that neither policy is likely to have an important effect on inflation volatility, due to the small contribution of hiring and firing costs to inflation dynamics.     

Deposit insurance around the world: A comprehensive analysis and database

This paper provides a comprehensive, global database of deposit insurance arrangements as of 2013. We extend our earlier dataset by including recent adopters of deposit insurance and information on the use of government guarantees on banks’ assets and liabilities, including during the recent global financial crisis. We also create a Safety Net Index capturing the generosity of the deposit insurance scheme and government guarantees on banks’ balance sheets. The data show that deposit insurance has become more widespread and more extensive in coverage since the global financial crisis, which also triggered a temporary increase in the government protection of non-deposit liabilities and bank assets. In most cases, these guarantees have since been formally removed but coverage of deposit insurance remains above pre-crisis levels, raising concerns about implicit coverage and moral hazard going forward.     

社会保障制度改革的一个政策工具:"目标定位"

20世纪70年代以来,西方福利国家普遍经历了深刻的危机并由此进行了全面的改革.在改革的过程中,"目标定位"政策得到了广泛的应用,成为福利国家削减开支的重要政策工具.本文首先分析了目标定位的含义、兴起的背景,进而分析了目标定位的各种措施以及优越性;然后结合一些案例国家的改革情况介绍了目标定位的诸多方法,包括传统方法以及创新的方法,并指出了创新方法的优势;然后从纵向和横向两个方面探讨了目标定位的绩效评估问题;最后对目标定位中存在的问题进行了研究并给出了政策建议.     

对货币供应，产出缺口在通胀传导中机制的研究

随着经济全球化和金融市场日益发达,通胀的形成和传导机制发生了较大变化,即使存在较大产出缺口,宽松货币政策引发的通胀预期还是会推升上游初级产品价格,并迅速向下游传导。但该文认为,总需求仍是影响通货膨胀的重要因素。一方面,货币乘数顺周期内生,风险溢价逆周期内生,总需求低迷会抑制货币扩张的程度;另一方面,货币对需求的刺激程度也具有顺周期特性,总需求低迷时,即使成功扩张了货币,其对总需求的刺激作用也打了折扣;不仅如此,通胀预期虽然会推高国际大宗商品价格和资产价格,但只要货币政策保持稳定,这两种价格能否持续上涨终究还是取决于总需求。     

Inflation dynamics with search frictions: A structural econometric analysis

The New Keynesian Phillips curve explains inflation dynamics as being driven by current and expected future real marginal costs. In competitive labor markets, the labor share can serve as a proxy for the latter. In this paper, we study the role of real marginal cost components implied by search frictions in the labor market. We construct a measure of real marginal costs by using newly available labor market data on worker finding rates. Over the business cycle, the measure is highly correlated with the labor share. Estimates of the Phillips curve using generalized method of moments reveal that the marginal cost measure remains significant, and that inflation dynamics are mainly driven by the forward-looking component. Bayesian estimation of the full New Keynesian model with search frictions helps us disentangle which shocks are driving the economy to generate the observed unit labor cost dynamics. We find that mark-up shocks are the dominant force in labor market fluctuations.     

Labor cost voluntary disclosures and firm equity values: Is human capital information value-relevant?

This study examines the market value relevance of labor cost voluntary disclosures using a valuation model relating firm market values to book values of equity and to disclosed human capital information, such as labor costs, net pension liabilities (NPLs), and estimated average and marginal labor productivity and efficiency indicators. Results indicate that labor cost disclosing companies command higher equity market values in general, and that labor productivity and efficiency measures appear to be undervalued. Both findings suggest that there might be market opportunities for firms with valuable human capital to differentiate themselves from their industry peers, which might encourage further human capital disclosure in the future. More refined measures of human capital assets and investments are needed to assess firms’ human resource management decisions and performance impacts in the capital markets more adequately.     

企业所得税的劳动需求效应--基于中国工业企业面板数据的研究

本文利用1998~2013年中国工业企业数据库的221万条企业面板数据,采取静态面板模型和动态面板模型,考察了企业所得税对企业劳动需求的影响。在基于生产函数推导出企业所得税对企业劳动需求的影响机理后,以企业职工人数和企业所得税有效税率等变量构建回归模型,用工具变量集解决内生性问题。实证结果表明,降低企业所得税有效税率会增加企业劳动需求,尤其对劳动密集型企业的劳动需求影响最大。因此,为了促进就业,应进一步降低企业所得税税率,并对劳动密集型企业给予特别的企业所得税优惠待遇。     

Household portfolio choices,health status and health care systems: A cross-country analysis based on SHARE

Health risk is increasingly viewed as an important form of background risk that affects household portfolio decisions. However, its role might be mediated by the presence of a protective full-coverage national health service that could reduce households’ probability of incurring current and future out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We use SHARE data to study the influence of current health status and future health risk on the decision to hold risky assets, across ten European countries with different health systems, each offering a different degree of protection against out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We find robust empirical evidence that perceived health status matters more than objective health status and, consistent with the theory of background risk, health risk affects portfolio choices only in countries with less protective health care systems. Furthermore, portfolio decisions consistent with background risk models are observed only with respect to middle-aged and highly-educated investors.     

Mortgages and bonds: The asset management practices of Australian life insurers to 1960

Recent studies of the experience of the British life insurance industry indicate that a period of transition, and the development of more diversified investment strategies, began in the interwar period. Australian life insurers lagged behind their British counterparts in the introduction of such strategies. This paper investigates why this was the case. It argues that in the Australian market there was both a lack of opportunity and incentive to broaden asset portfolios. However, this did not mean that asset management practices did not advance. Australian life offices became progressively more sophisticated in their approach to portfolio management during this period. Developments in the interwar period provided a grounding for post-war expansion into the equity market.     

Opportunist dealing in the UK pig meat supply chain: Trader mentalities and alternatives

The scandal surrounding the presence of horsemeat in UK supermarket meat products has focused public attention on the problems of complex, fragmented food supply chains. Through a study of the UK's pig meat supply chain, this paper proposes a new framing of the problem in terms of opportunistic dealing adopted by the supermarkets in vertically disintegrated supply chains, where all actors attempt to pass the risks and costs onto somebody else. This outcome is the result of cultural practices and competences in buyer-led supermarket organizations where strong supermarket chains have the power to capture processor and producer margins. One consequence is that mass-market meat production and processing is close to unviable, as evidenced here by the analysis of the VION Food Group. However, there are mainstream alternatives to the retail-led dysfunctional supply chain. This paper presents an alternative integrated supply chain model using the case of Morrisons, the UK's fourth largest supermarket chain. If fragmented supply chains are not inevitable, the important issue explored in the conclusion is how the inadequacies of government policy, which understands the problem of the sector but is stuck with a competition-based mindset, obstruct the creation of a more sustainable supply chain.     

Integrating sustainability performance measurement into logistics and supply networks: A multi-methodological approach

This paper seeks to address the way in which economic and environmental performance can be measured simultaneously, taking a multi-methodological approach to the logistics and supply chain management field in order to address sustainability challenges. The multi-methodological approach relies on the merits of different methodologies, provides more flexibility in tackling problems under investigation, and tolerates inaccurate estimation of parameters during the process. An illustrative case study (Westgate Ports) is undertaken in Australia in order to examine the ways in which the multi-methodological approach is applied, and how it assists during the decision making process in the adoption of green practices for freight transport logistics. The case validates the applicability and usefulness of the approach and highlights comparative outputs of costs and carbon emissions in freight transport logistics. Rail transport is identified as giving the opportunity to study the short distance container and freight distribution network, although initially this does not appear to be the most cost-effective option. This study finds that it is better to simultaneously consider performance indicators from different perspectives and to integrate them into one model of system measurement in order for corporations to improve their sustainability performance.