Labour Market Flexibility,Wages and Incomes in Sub‐Saharan Africa in the 1990s

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of how African labour markets have performed in the 1990s. It is argued that the failure of African labour markets to create good paying jobs has resulted in excess labour supply in the form of either open unemployment or a growing self‐employment sector. One explanation for this outcome is a lack of labour market ‘flexibility’ keeping formal sector wages above their equilibrium level and restricting job creation. We identify three attributes of labour market flexibility. First, whether real wages decline over time; secondly, the tendency for wages to adjust in the face of unemployment; and thirdly, the extent of wage differentials between sectors and/or firms of various size. Recent research shows that real wages in Africa during the 1990s may have been more downwardly flexible than previously thought and have been surprisingly responsive to unemployment rates, yet large wage differentials between formal and informal sector firms remain. This third sense of the term ‘inflexibility’ can explain a common factor across diverse African economies — the high income divide between those working in large firms and those not. Those working in the thriving self‐employment sector in Ghana have something in common with the unemployed in South Africa — both have very low income opportunities relative to those in large firms.     

What has Happened to Wages in the New Order?

This paper reviews trends in real wages in Indonesia since the early 1970s. It finds that there has been wage growth in a range of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. However, growth has been uneven across sectors and for different periods. After the oil boom, wage growth slowed during the second half of the 1980s, although it picked up again in the 1990s. The paper discusses the relationship between various episodes of economic growth and labour market developments which might have contributed to patterns of wage change in various sectors. It also examines the influence of price deflators on real wage change, and compares trends in real earnings with trends in wage rates.     

The changing fortunes of an aristocracy? Determinants of wages and conditions of employment in Kenya

This article examines the functioning of the labour market in the modern sector in Kenya and, in particular, considers the determinants of wages and other conditions of employment. An analysis of negotiated wages from collective agreements signed during 1974–75 suggests that measures of an ‘ability to pay’ characteristic of industries with limited competition in the product market and realizing above-average labour productivity are the best predictors of inter-industry wage differences. Locational and ownership variables are also found to be significant. Size of labour force is only significant for clerical wage rates. Four case studies suggest superior conditions of employment are positively associated with higher than average wages.     

Monopsony in the Labor Market,Minimum Wages and the Time Horizon: Some Unresolved Issues

This article discusses development of optimal solutions for monopsony in the labour market for the long run (when labour and capital are both flexible). It is shown that binding minimum wages up to a certain degree pushes the monopsonists to choose a high capital intensity of production, just as high as or even higher than that chosen when there is no regulation for minimum wages. Thereby, we demonstrate the existence of re-switching effects in the tradition of Piero Sraffa. The second part of the paper recalculates and analyzes earlier results by making use of the rather general constant elasticity of substitution production function. Based on a numerical solution for optimal monopsony under different regimes (no minimum wage, minimum wages of different values, etc.), we formulate a two-period game between the government and the monopsonistic firm (‘minimum wage game’). Finally, we analyze the relationship between the elasticity of substitution on the one hand and likely levels of employment on the other hand, after introduction of minimum wages.     

Losing the thread: a response to Robert Allen†

In an earlier article we used archival and printed primary sources to construct the first long-run wage series for hand spinning in early modern Britain. This evidence challenged Robert Allen's claim that spinners were part of the ‘high wage economy’, which he sees as motivating invention, innovation, and mechanization in the spinning section of the textile industry. We respond to Allen's subsequent criticism of our argument, sources, and methods, and his presentation of alternative evidence. Allen contends that we have understated both the earnings and associated productivity of hand spinners by focusing on part-time and low-quality workers. His rejoinder rests on an ahistorical account of spinners’ work and similarly weak evidence on wages as did his initial claims. Our augmented version of the spinners’ wages dataset confirms our original findings. Spinners’ wages were low even compared with other women workers, and neither wages nor the piece rates that determined unit labour costs followed a trajectory that could explain the invention and spread of the spinning jenny.     

Spinning the industrial revolution

The prevailing explanation for why the industrial revolution occurred first in Britain during the last quarter of the eighteenth century is Allen's ‘high wage economy’ view, which claims that the high cost of labour relative to capital and fuel incentivized innovation and the adoption of new techniques. This article presents new empirical evidence on hand spinning before the industrial revolution and demonstrates that there was no such ‘high wage economy’ in spinning, which was a leading sector of industrialization. We quantify the working lives of frequently ignored female and child spinners who were crucial to the British textile industry with evidence of productivity and wages from the late sixteenth to the early nineteenth century. Spinning emerges as a widespread, low‐productivity, low‐wage employment, in which wages did not rise substantially in advance of the introduction of the jenny and water frame. The motivation for mechanization must be sought elsewhere.     

Wage misalignment in CFA countries: were labour market policies to blame?

Wage rigidity, stemming from highly distortive labour marketpolicies, is a natural candidate to explain the overvaluationof the CFA franc after the adverse external shocks of the 1980s.This paper uses a variety of data sources to assess wage rigidityin CFA countries until the 1994 devaluation, and to analysewhether it was due to labour market policies. The paper showsthat wages were high in CFA countries, compared with both wagesin similar countries and the labour earnings of similar individualswithin the same countries. It also shows that wages were rigidin real terms, in the sense of following closely the fluctuationsof government wages and consumer prices, but it finds no evidenceof nominal wage rigidity, though. From an international perspective,minimum wages were not high enough to account for the observedwage misalignment. Moreover, their adjustment over time washighly responsive to real shocks. Private sector unions, inturn, seemed more instrumental in achieving wage moderationthan wage drift. Their members usually had lower wages thansimilar, non-unionised workers, which probably reflects the'subordinate' nature of the labour movement. The most likelycandidates to explain wage misalignment and real rigidity inCFA countries in the 1980s and early 1990s are therefore governmentpay policies and (possibly) limited competition in product markets.     

Wage Trends in Rice Production on Java: 1976–1988

Lack of consensus among researchers in Indonesia concerning real wage trends in rice production has generated disagreement over rural labour market conditions on Java. This paper identifies some empirical difficulties associated with measuring real wages, difficulties which have contributed to conflicting results in the literature. It is argued that the choice of deflator and the time period of analysis play a significant role in the calculation of real wages. In addition, the regional dimension of analysis is shown to be important, particularly during certain discrete time periods in recent history.     

Mistaken wages: the cost of labour in the early modern English economy,a reply to Robert C. Allen

This article responds to Robert C. Allen's reply to my new wage evidence for London, 1650–1800. The day rates Allen relies upon are not ‘wages’, and the evidence clearly points to a large difference between existing estimates and actual wages earned. His use of the piece rate in understanding earnings is significant, but cannot support a ‘high wage’ thesis. International comparisons that take new evidence into account do not show English wages to be any higher than elsewhere in Europe.     

Sticky Swedes and flexible Finns: manufacturing labour markets in Finland and Sweden during the Great Depression

ABSTRACT

Nominal wage stickiness is a popular explanation for the greatness of the Great Depression. According to the sticky-wage explanation, the slow adjustment of nominal wages raised real wages above the market-clearing level, causing a reduction of output and labour, thus increasing unemployment. Explanations for nominal wage stickiness are usually sought within the labour-market institutions and their changes after the First World War. This paper examines the role of labour-market institutions by comparing manufacturing labour markets in Finland and Sweden. These two countries had quite similar economic structures, trade patterns, and exchange rate policies, but different systems of industrial relations. Results indicate that stronger trade unions and collective bargaining made nominal wages stickier in Sweden, while in Finland, where collective agreements did not exist, unions were weaker, and wage adjustment was more flexible. As a result, real product wages rose in Sweden but fell in Finland. This created in Sweden stronger pressure for reducing labour input than in Finland. Our results show on one hand that labour market institutions clearly influenced the course of the Great Depression, but on the other hand that they alone do not explain the different economic outcomes during the depression and the recovery.     

Unskilled wage gaps within the Japanese Empire

This study calculates the cost of subsistence and respectability consumption baskets to derive ‘welfare ratios’ for 11 cities in the Japanese Empire as defined by Allen and his colleagues. Nominal wages tended to be higher where higher prices prevailed, and vice versa. Prices and nominal wages remained highest in Japan and lowest in Manchuria, with Korea and Taiwan being placed in between. Welfare ratios remained roughly comparable in the 1910s in the imperial cities outside Manchuria, where unskilled workers enjoyed substantially higher living standards. Interwar decades saw real wages rise in Tokyo, but fall in Dalian, which caused convergence in workers' income levels. Wage divergence occurred within Manchuria, as workers in Shenyang and Changchun enjoyed an improving welfare ratio. Real wages rose more slowly in Korean and Taiwanese than in Japanese cities. Replacing a subsistence lifestyle with a ‘respectable’ lifestyle yields a significantly different picture of the evolution of the real wage gap within the empire, which contradicts findings reported by existing studies in important respects.     

Wage increases, wage convergence, and the Lewis turning point in China

We examine the wage trends of ordinary workers and the wage convergence between unskilled and skilled workers in China. First, we find that wages in all non-agricultural sectors, wages of migrant workers, and wages of hired workers in the agricultural sector have increased dramatically since 2003. Second, through comparing wage differentials between migrant and urban resident workers and between heterogeneous education groups within migrant workers, and by investigating the changes in the contribution of the returns to education to wage differentials, we find that the wages of unskilled and skilled workers have converged. Both the increasing wage trends and wage convergence are interpreted as evidence supporting the hypothesis that China has passed what can be called the Lewis turning point in the industrial sector. We conclude that the sustainability of economic growth in China requires an upgrading of labor market institutions to accommodate the merging of the rural and urban labor forces.     

Why the industrial revolution was British: commerce,induced invention,and the scientific revolution1

Britain had a unique wage and price structure in the eighteenth century, and that structure is a key to explaining the inventions of the industrial revolution. British wages were very high by international standards, and energy was very cheap. This configuration led British firms to invent technologies that substituted capital and energy for labour. High wages also increased the supply of technology by enabling British people to acquire education and training. Britain's wage and price structure was the result of the country's success in international trade, and that owed much to mercantilism and imperialism. When technology was first invented, it was only profitable to use it in Britain, but eventually it was improved enough that it became cost‐effective abroad. When the ‘tipping point’ occurred, foreign countries adopted the technology in its most advanced form.     

Union relevance in the Malaysian labour market

The study estimates the effect of union membership on workers' wages using individual‐level data from a survey conducted among employees in various sectors in Malaysia in 2012. Initial results show that union membership has a positive effect on wages. However, after controlling for endogeneity, union membership or the presence of a labour union within a firm is not statistically significant for individual wage levels. Because there is no trade union wage premium, the study suggests that the revival of labour union membership is not going to be an easy task.     

Ticket to trade: Belgian labour and globalization before 19141

Standard trade theory, as invoked by political scientists and economists, would anticipate that workers in Belgium, a small Old World country, rich in labour relative to land, were in a good position to benefit from the wave of globalization before 1914. However, wage increases remained modest and ‘labour’ moved slowly towards adopting a free‐trade position. Beginning in 1885, the Belgian labour party backed free trade, but its support was conditional on more and better social legislation. Belgian workers' wellbeing improved in the wave of globalization, but the vehicle was labour and social legislation and not rising wages.     

Pieces of eight,pieces of eight: seamen's earnings and the venture economy of early modern seafaring†

Historians have generally argued that between the medieval period and the eighteenth century seafarers transformed from collaborative adventurers with a share in their vessel to the first international wage‐earning proletariat. This interpretation has drawn upon relatively limited statistical analysis of mariners’ wages, and underestimates the variety of seafarers’ remuneration and economic activities besides wages themselves. This article undertakes a more sustained analysis of seventeenth‐century wage data drawn from the papers of the English High Court of Admiralty, and uses the same evidence to examine other forms of income, both customary payments as part of shipping, and small‐scale trade. Seafarers of all ranks carried their own commodities on all shipping routes, offering an opportunity to increase their income considerably. This evidence confirms that the maritime labour market was hierarchical, and that very often seafarers were poor labourers facing economic insecurity of many kinds. However, it refines the previous interpretation by emphasizing the presence of skilled workers even among the lower levels of this labour market, and by introducing a new dimension to mariners’ economic agency: they were not simply wage‐workers, but also independent participants in a venture economy.     

WAGES THROUGH BOOMS AND RECESSIONS: A CASE STUDY OF ZIMBABWE

This paper examines developments in the wage system in Zimbabwe. The analysis focuses on the wage formation process and wage differentials. The paper observes that real wages have been flexible and have fallen sharply. Wage inflexibility is thus ruled out as a cause of unemployment. The collapse of wages has given rise to non‐standard labour market practices as workers try to cushion themselves against rapid wage declines. Wages also exhibit wide gender, racial and occupational differentials. The paper also argues that a wage policy in Zimbabwe must be pillared on decentralised, coordinated and synchronised collective bargaining.     

Export Activity,Firm Size and Wage Structure: Evidence from Taiwanese Manufacturing Firms*

This study adopts a semiparametric smooth coefficient model to evaluate the export–wage premiums, firm size–wage premiums, and the wage gap between skilled and unskilled labor. Particular focus is placed upon widespread evidence indicating that pay levels in ‘large’ and ‘export‐oriented’ firms are higher than in their ‘small’ and ‘domestic‐oriented’ counterparts. Applying the firm‐level data for Taiwanese manufacturing firms, we find a positive export–wage premium for skilled workers and a negative export–wage premium for unskilled workers. The hypothesis of a constant export premium across firm size is rejected. While most of the export–wage premiums for skilled labor can be attributed to the small and medium firms, the large exporting firms have a significant adverse effect on wages for unskilled labor. Moreover, our results suggest that the firm size–wage premiums for skilled workers are larger than those for unskilled workers. The wage gap between the two skill groups is also sensitive to size categories.     

The productivity–wage relationship in South Africa: an empirical investigation

This article investigates the relationship between labour productivity, average real wages and the unemployment rate in South Africa at the macroeconomic level, using time‐series econometric techniques. There is strong evidence of a structural break in 1990, after which time all three variables rose rapidly. The break appears to have negatively affected the level of employment in the first instance, and subsequently fed through into per worker wages and productivity. A long‐term equilibrium (cointegrating) relationship was found between real wages and productivity, but unemployment was apparently unconnected to the system, which lends support to the insider–outsider theory. A long‐term wage–productivity elasticity of 0,58 indicates that productivity has grown more rapidly than wages, which is consistent with the finding that labour's share of gross output has been shrinking over the past decade. These trends may be explained plausibly by the adoption of job‐shedding technology and capital intensification.     

Phillips ‘loops’ in South Africa∗

Professor Phillips published his famous Phillips curve article in 1958. In his research, however, he observed that wages were rising more rapidly during the upswing of the business cycle, when unemployment was falling, than during the downturn, when unemployment was rising. When data on the respective variables was plotted, a distinct ‘loop’ was found. In the analysis of South African labour statistics, it was found that such a ‘loop’ existed in the White labour market. However, in the case of the Black labour market, only a weak image of a ‘loop’ was found. The real economic forces producing such a ‘loop’ were almost completely absent. This has implications not only for labour management and economic policy in general, but also for development strategies, because it implies that if Black labour had been left to market forces only, they would have been worse off than they are now.