Living standards and plague in London, 1560–1665

This article uses individual records of 930,000 burials and 630,000 baptisms to reconstruct the spatial and temporal patterns of birth and death in London from 1560 to 1665, a period dominated by recurrent plague. The plagues of 1563, 1603, 1625, and 1665 appear of roughly equal magnitude, with deaths running at five to six times their usual rate, but the impact on wealthier central parishes falls markedly through time. Tracking the weekly spread of plague, we find no evidence that plague emerged first in the docks, and in many cases elevated mortality emerges first in the poor northern suburbs. Looking at the seasonal pattern of mortality, we find that the characteristic autumn spike associated with plague continued into the early 1700s. Natural increase improved as smaller crises disappeared after 1590, but fewer than half of those born survived childhood.     

Fertility decline and the heights of children in Britain, 1886–1938

In this paper we argue that the fertility decline that began around 1880 had substantial positive effects on the health of children, as the quality–quantity trade-off would suggest. We use microdata from a unique survey from 1930s Britain to analyse the relationship at the household level between the standardised heights of children and the number of children in the family. Our results suggest that heights are influenced positively by family income per capita and negatively by the number of children or the degree of crowding in the household. The evidence suggests that family size affected the health of children through its influence on both nutrition and disease. Applying our results to long-term trends, we find that rising household income and falling family size contributed significantly to improving child health between 1886 and 1938. Between 1906 and 1938 these variables account for 40% of the increase in heights, and much of this effect is due to falling family size. We conclude that the fertility decline is a neglected source of the rapid improvement in health in the first half of the twentieth century.     

Evaluating early modern lockdowns: Household quarantine in Bristol, 1565–1604

We know the policy of quarantining plague victims and their families together within their households entailed considerable costs and controversy in early modern Europe. Less clear is the extent to which the authorities implemented the policy in the face of this. This paper presents a novel approach to the measurement of enforcement which relies on linking deceased individuals listed in parish registers into household groups and then measuring changes in within-household mortality between parishes and epidemics. This provides a more complete assessment of the scale of implementation than would be possible using documentary sources alone. Measuring within-household mortality allows us to understand patterns of quarantine enforcement in settlements across early modern Europe. Here the focus is restricted to three epidemics that occurred in Bristol – one of England's most populous and prosperous cities. The analysis reveals household quarantine was enforced in 1603–4 with unprecedented vigour. The effects of quarantine are particularly pronounced in the affluent parishes where elite residence was highest. Greater evidence for enforcement is explained by greater elite oversight and control, as well as their desire to protect their own households. The scale of the impact is shocking. Household quarantine could double within household mortality.     

Moving to the right place at the right time: Economic effects on migrants of the Manchuria Plague of 1910–11

How do initial arrival conditions in a host locality affect migrants’ subsequent economic welfare? Manchuria (Northeast China), which attracted millions of migrants from North China during the first half of the twentieth century, experienced a devastating pneumonic plague outbreak in 1910–11. Using data from a rural household survey in the mid-1930s, we explore how the post-plague conditions in various villages affected migrant cohorts’ long-term wealth accumulation. We find that the migrant households that moved to plague-hit villages soon after the plague ended prospered the most: they owned at least 112% more land than migrant households that either moved elsewhere or migrated to the same village before or long after the plague outbreak. Our results are robust after controlling for factors that influence the long-term wealth accumulation of migrants and are not caused by selection.     

An introduction to the history of infectious diseases,epidemics and the early phases of the long-run decline in mortality†

This article, written during the COVID-19 epidemic, provides a general introduction to the long-term history of infectious diseases, epidemics and the early phases of the spectacular long-term improvements in life expectancy since 1750, primarily with reference to English history. The story is a fundamentally optimistic one. In 2019 global life expectancy was approaching 73 years. In 1800 it was probably about 30. To understand the origins of this transition, we have to look at the historical sequence by which so many causes of premature death have been vanquished over time. In England that story begins much earlier than often supposed, in the years around 1600. The first two ‘victories’ were over famine and plague. However, economic changes with negative influences on mortality meant that, despite this, life expectancies were either falling or stable between the late sixteenth and mid eighteenth centuries. The late eighteenth and early nineteenth century saw major declines in deaths from smallpox, malaria and typhus and the beginnings of the long-run increases in life expectancy. The period also saw urban areas become capable of demographic growth without a constant stream of migrants from the countryside: a necessary precondition for the global urbanization of the last two centuries and for modern economic growth. Since 1840 the highest national life expectancy globally has increased by three years in every decade.     

The ‘light touch’ of the Black Death in the Southern Netherlands: an urban trick?

Although the fanciful notion that the Black Death bypassed the Low Countries has long been rejected, nevertheless a persistent view remains that the Low Countries experienced only a ‘light touch’ of the plague when placed in a broader European perspective, and recovered quickly and fully. However, in this article an array of dispersed sources for the Southern Netherlands together with a new mortmain accounts database for Hainaut show that the Black Death was severe, perhaps no less severe than other parts of western Europe; that serious plagues continued throughout the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries; and that the Black Death and recurring plagues spread over vast territories—including the countryside. The previous conception of a ‘light touch’ of plague in the Low Countries was created by the overprivileging of particular urban sources, and a failure to account for the rapid replenishment of cities via inward migration, which obscured demographic decimation. We suggest that the population of the Low Countries may not have recovered faster than other parts of western Europe but instead experienced a greater degree of post‐plague rural–urban migration.     

Spending,saving, or investing? Risk management in sixteenth‐century Dutch households1

In the past one of the main challenges to households was that of coping with adversity. War, plague, famine, and flood were a constant threat, and could reduce what little improvements families had made in productivity. Economic growth therefore required a means of absorbing external adversities. To see how well late medieval households coped with adversity, this investigation focuses on the households of a small town and its surroundings in early modern Holland. Our findings reveal that several severe external shocks around 1500 had little effect on the general level or distribution of wealth, which suggests that certain forms of insurance may have protected the population. The results show that households increasingly invested in capital markets rather than employing such techniques as scattered holdings and hoarding. This fact indicates that such investment played a vital role in a household's risk aversion strategy. The change from unproductive to more productive risk‐aversion strategies also provides some clues about progress with respect to insurance during Holland's financial revolution.     

House prices in the Ottoman Empire: evidence from eighteenth‐century Edirne†

This study uses a new dataset of 2,246 notarial deeds of house sales from one of the major cities of the Ottoman Empire, Edirne, covering the period from 1720 to 1814. It estimates real hedonic house prices and urban wealth inequality for the housing market. It shows that house size, proximity to the commercial centre, access to fresh water, and family ties were important determinants of relative house prices. These findings also apply to the different quartiles of the market, indicating limited market segmentation. It demonstrates that there was an increase in housing wealth inequality during the eighteenth century as house prices became more dispersed. The hedonic house price index provides evidence that inflation‐adjusted house prices declined substantially following the Russo‐Turkish war of 1768–74. The decline is mainly explained through demographic shocks induced by plague epidemics, natural disasters, and other population movements driven by wars, army mobilization, and political upheavals.     

Plague and long‐term development: the lasting effects of the 1629–30 epidemic on the Italian cities

This article aims to analyse the effects of plague on the long‐term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629–30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 56 cities covering the period c. 1575–1700, an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629–30 plague were displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused long‐lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth‐century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.     

Decomposing income inequality in a backward pre‐industrial economy: Old Castile (Spain) in the middle of the eighteenth century

Research on economic inequality in early modern Europe is complicated by the lack of appropriate data for reconstructing income or wealth distributions. This article presents a study of income inequality in mid‐eighteenth‐century Old Castile (Spain) using the Ensenada Cadastre, a census conducted between 1749 and 1759. The article describes the information provided by this census and then discusses its advantages and disadvantages for reconstructing income profiles and calculating income inequality. This is followed by analysis of a dataset derived from the Cadastre that consists of more than 4,000 observations from Palencia (a province in northern Spain) and contains information on sources of household income, each household head's main occupation, residence location, and other household characteristics. Demographic data from this census is used to weight observations in the sample and thereby minimize selection bias. Findings show that inequality in eighteenth‐century Spain was probably substantial despite its relative backwardness; that the relationship between inequality and per capita income was not clear‐cut and was probably influenced by measurement of the higher incomes; and that although income inequality was largely driven by uneven land distribution, labour income also contributed to overall inequality—especially in urban centres.     

数字金融发展如何影响家庭“加杠杆”？——动态效应、异质性特征与机制检验

随着我国家庭部门杠杆率的快速攀升，家庭部门"加杠杆"成为学术界和业界共同关注的焦点之一。文章将中国数字普惠金融指数与中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据相结合，从数字金融发展的角度，给出了一个近年来家庭杠杆率上升的解释，并探讨了其中的作用机制以及潜在影响。研究发现，数字金融发展能够显著推动家庭杠杆率的攀升，并对家庭杠杆率的攀升具有长期影响。从数量上看，数字金融发展每增加1%，相应杠杆率将上升0.0058%。在考虑了潜在的内生性后，文章所得结论依然成立。对该影响在不同群体中可能存在的异质性进行分析，结果发现，数字金融发展对家庭杠杆率的提升在有房贷、消费贷和经营贷家庭、中西部地区家庭、25-55岁家庭、农村地区家庭更为明显。机制分析表明，数字金融发展通过提高金融可得性、强化支付便利性和降低家庭面临的不确定性而对家庭杠杆率产生积极影响。文章研究结论对制定"数字中国"战略、理解结构性去杠杆中"守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线"等方面提供了有益思考。     

The dynamics of household dissolution and change in socio-economic position: A survival model in a rural South Africa

This paper investigates household dissolution and changes in asset wealth (socio-economic position) in a rural South African community containing settled refugees. Survival analysis applied to a longitudinal dataset indicated that the covariates increasing the risk of forced household dissolution were a reduction in socio-economic position (asset wealth), adult deaths and the permanent outmigration of more than 40% of the household. Conversely, the risk of dissolution was reduced by bigger households, state grants and older household heads. Significant spatial clusters of former refugee villages also showed a higher risk of dissolution after 20?years of permanent residence. A discussion of the dynamics of dissolution showed how an outflow/inflow of household assets (socio-economic position) was precipitated by each of the selected covariates. The paper shows how an understanding of the dynamics of forced household dissolution, combined with the use of geo-spatial mapping, can inform inter-disciplinary policy in a rural community.     

Reducing the Number of Pesticide- Related Illnesses: The Impact on Household Incomes in Indonesia

The increasing number of human health problems caused by the use of pesticides serves as a warning to countries to develop preventive programs Developing countries, however, are concerned about the effect of such programs on household incomes. With Indonesia as a case study, this paper presents a procedure to broaden a Social Accounting Matrix to include the impact of agricultural pesticide use on human health This approach utilises the Constrained Fixed Price Multiplier method to analyse the effect, on the household incomes of different socio-economic classes, of government programs that are designed to reduce human pesticide-related illnesses The results show that reducing such illnesses through the Safe Use of Pesticides program or the Integrated Pest Management program induces a more equal income distribution.     

金融素养是否降低了家庭金融脆弱性?

金融素养对家庭金融脆弱性的影响具有不确定性,既可能通过增加家庭的资产和收入,降低家庭金融脆弱性;也可能通过增加家庭的负债与支出,提升家庭金融脆弱性。本文首先从金融知识、金融行为、金融态度三个维度测算金融素养,再基于"资不抵债"、"入不敷出"两个维度量化家庭金融脆弱性,最后构建实证模型,以CFPS（2014）为样本,量化分析金融素养对家庭金融脆弱性的影响。实证研究表明：金融素养的增加显著降低家庭金融脆弱性及"资不抵债"的概率;在金融素养的三个维度中,金融知识降低金融脆弱性、缓解资不抵债的作用更为显著。     

Housing demand in Shanghai: A discrete choice approach

In this study we apply a random utility modeling framework to analyze housing demand in the city of Shanghai. A Multinomial Logit Model taking account of latent choice sets is employed to investigate the impact of household characteristics, such as income, size and age composition, on the choice of dwelling, specified by location, size and unit price. In addition to the price and income effects on housing demand, the model identifies a quality indicator for dwelling attributes, which can be interpreted as the mean attractiveness in a money metric measure.The data used in this study are cross-sectional survey data. The estimated model is used to calculate demand elasticities and demand probabilities, for selected groups of households and types of dwellings. Among the results can be noted that the price–income ratios, the age composition and size of household are all important determinants of the demand. The impact of income distribution on housing demand is also studied.     

Labor income inequality in pre-industrial Mediterranean Spain: The city of Murcia in the 18th century

Information about the income distribution in pre-industrial societies is sparse. We analyze labor income inequality in 18th century Murcia, a city in Mediterranean Spain. The historical income distribution of this region is relatively unknown, despite it having on of the highest urbanization rates in Europe in the pre-industrial era. We first use a census conducted in the 1750s which collected information on income and occupation. We then use this income information to conduct analyses of the income distribution in the 1730s and 1780s using censuses with information about the occupational distribution. We find large changes in the distribution of occupations across the censuses. We show that our results on inequality are sensitive to assumptions regarding household composition and within-occupation distribution of income, but not to the definition of household income.     

家庭金融研究的回顾与展望

家庭金融是金融学界不少学者关注的研究课题。近十年来,家庭金融的研究取得了一定的进展。国外对家庭金融的研究,大多是以发达国家单一的现代经济为研究背景的。与发达国家不同,我国的城乡二元经济结构特征显著,在这种背景下,我国城乡家庭金融存在着显著的差异。本文从家庭金融的含义出发,从家庭金融资产和金融负债两个角度对国内外家庭金融的研究进行了回顾和展望,     

The Determinants of Labour Supply and Demand in Irrigated Agriculture: A Case Study of the Gezira Scheme in Sudan*

Abstract: The objective of this study was to estimate the determinants of labour supply and demand in irrigated agriculture with reference to the Gezira scheme. Two samples, one comprising the farmers and the other the agricultural workers, were randomly selected through a field survey during the 2003/2004 season. A log‐linear model of multiple regressions was fitted to the data. The results indicated that labour demand and supply depend mostly on variables related to the household characteristics and economic and non‐economic conditions.     

农业产业链“公司+农户”组织模式再造

针对农业产业链“公司＋农户”组织模式存在的利益冲突和由利益关系引发质量难以控制的问题,借鉴国外先进的农业产业链组织经验,从产业链纵向组织结构分析入手,将“公司＋农户”组织模式改造为“公司＋农业产业工人”、“品牌＋农户＋市场”、“供销合作社＋品牌＋农户”三种新模式。通过典型实例分析了新模式的战略优势、实施障碍与风险。     

Income distributions in an international perspective--the case of Hungary and the Netherlands

"This article describes the comparison of the income distributions of Hungary and the Netherlands. In this comparison harmonised micro-data have been used to reach a high degree of comparability. The empirical results show that the inequality of household incomes was the same in both countries in the early eighties. After adjustments for differences in size and composition of households the income distribution was less equal in the Netherlands than in Hungary. The equivalence scales used were based on national budget surveys."