The sources of the Kuznets relationship between road fatalities and economic growth

This paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of the Kuznets curve relationship between per capita income and road fatalities across 60 countries over the period 1972-2004. This relationship hypothesizes that the number of road fatalities increases with increasing motorization in the early stages of economic growth. Eventually, due to advances in technical, policy and political institutions, it declines as per capita income increases. The quality of political institutions as well as improvements in medical care and technology are hypothesized to impact road fatalities. Results indicate evidence of a Kuznets curve relationship between per capita income and road fatalities for both highly developed and less developed countries and support our hypothesis that changes in institutional quality and medical improvements underlie the Kuznets relationship. The evidence presented in this study suggests that lowering corruption levels as well as improvements in medical care and technology would help to reduce road fatalities.     

The role of road safety in a sustainable urban mobility: An econometric assessment of the Spanish NUTS-3 case

There has been a structural change in mobility in major Spanish cities in recent decades, with a switch to the pattern followed in other countries in the area. A shift has taken place from a traditional Mediterranean model to a North American city stereotype, with uncontrolled motorization and major implications for public health. This article specifically analyzes negative road safety-related externalities that result from this process, given that the trend seems to show a steady decline in road safety accidents on urban roads in Spain, with major differences among NUTS-3 provinces. The objective is to evaluate the factors that empirically explain these differences for the 2003–2013 period using a panel data analysis. Results show that a key role is played by urban development variables, such as population density and improvements in health services, with advances linked to more accessible and sustainable urban transportation, such as the Smart City concept. Not only does this article close a gap in the literature, but the findings can also serve as a practical guide for the development and implementation of urban mobility and road safety plans, and reveals the special needs of the most vulnerable groups.     

Accessibility gains and road transport infrastructure in Spain: A productivity approach based on the Malmquist index

Accessibility, the relative access to markets, is a strategic concept in all economic models with a spatial dimension and its prominence has been acknowledged in many economic research fields and policy debates. This paper is based on the assumption that infrastructure drives economic accessibility and, therefore, we can assimilate a production function approach where the road network constitutes a set of inputs yielding access to markets as output. Methodologically, we originally measure the infrastructure inputs accounting for the real used network and calculate a series of new final and intermediate demand gravity-based and locational indicators, which capture a wide range of economic transactions and represent different concepts of economic accessibility outputs. The value added of this paper is translating a non-parametric frontier approach (DEA) to a dynamic scope (Malmquist indices) by connecting the regional accessibility to the productivity of the road infrastructure inputs associated with each region. Results during 1995–2005 show a low relative accessibility of the Spanish NUTS-3 regions, although improvements have been greater over the last five years. Finally, we observe a U-inverted relationship between the accessibility gains during these years and the geographical localization.     

Improved road accessibility and indirect development effects: evidence from rural Philippines

This paper develops earlier conceptual frameworks and methods for analyzing the indirect development effects of improved road accessibility. The creation of economic opportunity and response to economic opportunity are the two concepts used in the theoretical framework, while time-series data, a road accessibility inventory, and a multi-criteria analysis were the methods used to analyse the indirect effects among households and household firms. A weakness of many impact studies is that they merely chart aggregate economic development. The method employed here includes access to resources by various groups and therefore enables the focus to shift from mere aggregate economic development to also encompass equitable and sustainable social development. The study focused on a rural Philippine fishing community, previously characterized by poor transport conditions and poor accessibility to major markets. It found that the benefits of the road improvement were considerable and benefited a great majority of the population in the fishing community. In addition to the extensive direct effects of the improved road, a number of complementary factors led to substantial indirect effects. These included: abundance of harvested resource in the community; a potential for technical innovations that increased production and productivity; available investment to support this increased production; abundant demand for this increased production in the market region (the market widened in spatial terms and prices were maintained).     

Travelling together: participatory research methods for disability inclusive road development in Papua New Guinea

Investment in road infrastructure is a recognised approach to poverty reduction in developing countries, through improving community access to essential services, social networks and economic opportunities. But in both developing and developed contexts, very few road projects involve community consultation in road planning. Road planning and assessment rarely differentiate impacts on the lives of those who are most marginalised from economic and social development, such as people with disabilities. This article provides an example of inexpensive and replicable methods that were used in partnership with a national disabled people’s organisation to undertake participatory research in Papua New Guinea on inclusive road development. Four participatory methods – focus group discussions, interviews with road decision-makers, walkabouts, and photo elicitation – are described and evaluated.     

Strait crossings and economic development: Developing economic impact assessment by means of ex post analyses

There is widespread scepticism among politicians and authorities concerning CBA as a main instrument for decision-making. This may cause possible bias towards non-quantitative factors as decisive. The challenge is to improve the methological approach, carefully examining the real benefits for road users. One way of doing this is to develop ex post CBA to test how critical assumptions fit to reality. The focus of this paper is on ex post analyses carried out with five case studies in larger infrastructure projects to assess the economic profitability actually occurring from new infrastructure. There are substantial differences in benefits ex post compared with the ex ante analyses, mainly explained by a shift parameter in willingness to pay (WTP) for the improvements. These ‘inconvenience costs’ saved by the road users add to the traditional value-of-time benefits. The paper also examines the profitability of private versus public funding and ends up with some considerations on regional impacts of transport infrastructure. A short presentation of a pilot study from two of the fixed links to elicit the influence on local industry is given. Some informal results support the theory of forward and backward linkages from new economic geography.     

Annual average daily traffic estimation in England and Wales: An application of clustering and regression modelling

Collection of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is of major importance for a number of applications in road transport urban and environmental studies. However, traffic measurements are undertaken only for a part of the road network with minor roads usually excluded. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate AADT in England and Wales applicable across the full road network, so that traffic for both major and minor roads can be approximated. This is achieved by consolidating clustering and regression modelling and using a comprehensive set of variables related to roadway, socioeconomic and land use characteristics. The methodological output reveals traffic patterns across urban and rural areas as well as produces accurate results for all road classes. Support Vector Regression (SVR) and Random Forest (RF) are found to outperform the traditional Linear Regression, although the findings suggest that data clustering is key for significant reduction in prediction errors.     

Motorway speeds in wet weather: the comparative influence of porous and conventional asphalt surfacings

This paper examines motorists’ speeds in wet weather compared with non-hazardous dry conditions (the control) for two separate survey locations on the M4 motorway, south Wales. One site was surfaced with conventional asphalt, whilst the other location had a porous asphalt wearing course. The aim of this study is to establish whether drivers compensate for the additional risks posed in rain by reducing their speed in wet weather. Drivers are slowing down in wet weather, but only marginally; and although the speed reductions proved statistically significant, they are insufficient to compensate for the additional wet weather risks imposed. Such findings have broader implications for the government’s road safety targets.     

城市交通投资与经济增长关系的实证分析

通过分析北京和纽约城市交通在道路交通设施、轨道交通设施、交通投资方面的发展现状,利用交通投资投入产出模型定量比较北京市与纽约市交通投资与经济增长的关系。研究结果表明:交通建设投资对经济的影响较大,交通业在国民经济中发挥着基础产业和服务业的作用;与纽约相比,北京交通建设投资对经济增长的影响更大,其影响着重于交通建设投资方面,纽约的城市交通设施建成后主要发挥的是服务业的特征。     

从经济学角度探究公路货运超载原因

目前货运超载已成为公路运输发展中普遍存在的问题,它体现了经济发展的不均衡,也反映出社会各方面存在的问题。货物运输超载的原因是多方面的,从经济学的角度分析,有法制不健全、各项税费支出比例大、货运企业集中度低等客观原因,也有运输成本规模效应的驱使、货运联合成本上升的作用等主观原因。针对实际现状提出相关政策性建议,以使公路货运业良性循环发展。     

The safety impact of land use changes resulting from bypass road constructions

This paper analyzes the effect of bypass construction on road safety, specifically crash rates on bypass segments and in bypassed communities. It further investigates the effect of bypass construction on those communities’ economic development through changes in the number and spatial distribution of businesses and residential development, and examines whether these changes affect the road-safety level. Finally, it evaluates the effect on road safety of various traffic arrangements implemented in such communities. Drawing on an extensive data collection, the study focuses on Arab cities in the Galilee region of Israel, using cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis.The results show that bypass construction does not necessarily reduce overall crash frequencies or crash rates. It merely shifts road crashes from the highways (the bypass roads) to inner roads (bypassed) and from there to local traffic, with no significant reduction. The findings indicate a large variance in the effects of bypass constructions on safety.     

Endogenous treatment of residential location choices in transport and land use models: Introducing the MetroScan framework

Within a random utility maximisation modelling framework, the paper develops a residential location choice model as part of an integrated transport and land use modelling system, called MetroScan – a quick scanning tool to evaluate transport and land use initiatives, including benefit-cost analysis and economic impact analysis. We describe how the developed model is integrated, as an empirically calibrated module, into the behaviourally richer transport and land use modelling system of MetroScan for practical application. A full application of MetroScan modelling system to Sydney West Metro link recently proposed by the New South Wales government is presented as a case study. The results demonstrate how the residential location choice model works with other inter-connected models, such as work and non-work location choices, dwelling tenure and dwelling type, and vehicle fleet size choice embedded in the modelling system, in simulating the impact of transport and housing development on household choices of residential location.     

Decomposing the decoupling of Danish road freight traffic growth and economic growth

In recent years many European countries have seen a decoupling of the growth in road freight traffic (vehicle kilometres) from economic growth. A similar decoupling has not been observed in road freight transport (tonne kilometres). In this paper the historical growth in national Danish road freight traffic and transport is attributed to causes using a Divisia index decomposition method. It is demonstrated that overall road freight traffic growth is a consequence of often opposite pointing growth effects in the underlying factors. The observed decoupling of road freight traffic growth from economic growth is mainly the result of use of larger vehicles, increasing average loads, and less empty running. Growth in road freight transport is primarily caused by growth in production. A decrease in the number of tons lifted per tonne produced (the handling factor) is offset by an increase in the tonne kilometres per tonne lifted.     

Spatio-temporal evolution of cities and regional economic development in Nepal: Does transport infrastructure matter?

The literature on the New Economic Geography (NEG) suggests that transport cost is a major driving factor for the emergence of core–periphery patterns within a country. However, very few studies have tested this theoretical explanation in the context of transport infrastructure networks in developing countries. This paper takes a closer look at Nepal and tests four expectations that are drawn from the NEG, which highlight different aspects of the formation of core–periphery dynamic as determined by infrastructure quality. The expectations are tested by relating spatial-temporal patterns of road development to the growth and distribution of cities and examining the transport infrastructure contribution to shaping the patterns of regional economic development. We used intercity travel time estimates, based on the design speed of roads, length of sections and pavement type (from 1961 onwards in 10-year segments) as an indicator for the quality of infrastructure (transportation cost). Next, we computed hubness and accessibility indices of cities, defined by means of a gravity model and as a function of transportation cost, to undertake a cross-city comparison. We applied GIS mapping, multiple regression and mediation analysis techniques to relate these transport and accessibility characteristics to spatio-temporal patterns in city size and GDP per capita. Our study broadly confirms the core expectation derived from the NEG that transport improvements facilitate urbanization and that higher urbanization leads to higher regional GDP per capita. Two independent effects were identified in qualification of these overall patterns – the impact of market potential on city primacy and the impact of highly localized, immobile resources on GDP.     

The effects of area-wide road speed and curvature on traffic casualties in England

Transport provides a range of benefits to society in terms of mobility, access and economic growth. There are however negative impacts of transport, not least in terms of environmental degradation, damage to property, traffic accidents and loss of life. This paper focuses on road traffic accidents, the reduction of which is an important aim of transport policy world wide. The primary objective of this paper is to develop a series of relationships using spatially disaggregated area-level cross-sectional data between different traffic casualties, road traffic speed and road curvature by controlling for other contributing factors associated with area characteristics. The spatial units of the analysis are the 8019 census wards in England. Ward-level casualty data are disaggregated by severity of the casualty (such as fatalities, serious injuries and slight injuries) and by the severity of the casualty related to various road users.The results suggest that increased average speed within a ward is positively associated with total fatalities and serious injuries; and road curvature is found to be negatively associated with road accidents.     

Planning for an unpredictable future: Transport in Great Britain in 2030

This paper describes a research study, which explores alternative future scenarios for Great Britain in the year 2030 and the implications these have for travel demand and transport provision. Five alternative future scenarios are represented in the GB national transport model and forecasts are obtained for trip making, traffic levels, congestion and emissions in 2030. For all scenarios it is expected that there will be significant traffic growth. Traffic growth is restricted most in scenarios including distance-based road charging on motorways and trunk roads. However, congestion and carbon dioxide emissions are most effectively limited in scenarios with congestion-based road charging, major improvements to urban public transport and investment in new fuel technologies and in improving engine efficiency.     

Streetcar projects as spatial planning: A shift in transport planning in the United States

Currently dozens of U.S. cities are in the midst of planning and building modern streetcar systems. Though seemingly mobility investments, the intended impacts of these streetcar projects reach beyond transportation and represent a strong turn toward strategic spatial planning through transportation infrastructure. Proponents of modern streetcars argue that they are tools of placemaking as much as if not more than improvements for transit services. Unlike transit investments of a century ago, when privately operated streetcars were a decentralizing force that helped disperse overcrowded central city cores and open new land for real estate development, current streetcar projects in the United States are expected to concentrate activity and economic development in select corridors. The majority of these new systems rely on transit technologies that are significantly improved over the carriages of old, with modern features, smooth rides and quiet operations. Yet for all the improvements to the vehicles and services, new streetcar investments no longer primarily improve transit accessibility. Rather, modern streetcars are part of strategic amenity packages cities use to achieve real estate and economic development goals. This use of transportation infrastructure as an amenity for a particular location is a shift away from traditional transportation planning processes, and the expected benefits, in particular, stand apart as being deliberately spatial. We use planning documents and data from ballot box initiatives to evaluate expected transportation benefits relative to indirect benefits through economic development. We find that approximately three-quarters of all expected benefits from streetcar projects accrue to property development with the remaining expected benefits assigned to transportation. However, we do not find sufficient empirical evidence in the literature to support such certain claims of positive effects on property values and the built environment. We argue that the increasing tendency of cities to leverage streetcar projects for non-transportation purposes represents a turn to the use of infrastructure as a tool of spatial planning.     

Safety classification using GIS in decision-making process to define priority road interventions

Given the current economic situation of the Portuguese municipalities, it is necessary to identify the priority investments in order to achieve a more efficient financial management. The classification of the road network of the municipality according to the occurrence of traffic accidents is fundamental to set priorities for road interventions. This paper presents a model for road network classification based on traffic accidents integrated in a geographic information system. Its practical application was developed through a case study in the municipality of Barcelos. An equation was defined to obtain a road safety index through the combination of the following indicators: severity, property damage only and accident costs. In addition to the road network classification, the application of the model allows to analyze the spatial coverage of accidents in order to determine the centrality and dispersion of the locations with the highest incidence of road accidents. This analysis can be further refined according to the nature of the accidents namely in collision, runoff and pedestrian crashes.