The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

This article aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. Based on a Global VAR modeling approach, this article shows first that countries with a large trade exposure with the U.S. economy have a relatively larger sensitivity to U.S. developments. However, even for countries that do not trade so much with the U.S., they are largely influenced by its dominance through other partners’ trade. Moreover, while no clear trend seems to emerge, it seems that the role of the U.S. in the global economy has changed over time. Overall, for most countries—the latest recession excluded—a change in U.S. GDP had weaker impacts—though more persistent—for most recent periods. The latest recession, however, led to some renewed increase in the sensitivity of the economies to U.S. developments.     

Global predictive power of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market

Given the pace of increasing globalization and the pioneering role of the U.S. economy, we anlayze the global impact of the U.S. equity market’s uncertainty. The asymmetric impact of upside (downside) uncertainty, related with the upward (downward) movements of the underlying assets, has raised substantial concerns recently. We comprehensively analyze the global predictability of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market, implied by S&P-500 calls and puts, respectively. We contribute to the literature on the asymmetric impacts of the upside and downside variances of the U.S. equity market in an international setting. Our study also complements the study on predicting international stock returns. Moreover, substantial economic value can be generated from the perspective of asset allocation. The main channel for the positive (negative) predictability of upside (downside) variance stems from its positive (negative) impacts on international investment, highlighting the leading role of the U.S. economy.     

Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War

ABSTRACT

Three major concerns drove the U.S. into initiating the trade war, and they are (a) the concern that China’s chronically large trade surplus was depressing job creation in the U.S. (b) the concern that China was using illegal and unfair methods to acquire U.S. technology at an effectively discounted price; and (c) the concern that China seeks to weaken U.S. national security and its international standing. On the dispute over China’s exchange rate and trade imbalance, the first conclusion is that it was marked by analytical confusion over the meaning of the term ‘equilibrium exchange rate’. The second conclusion is that China’s trade imbalance reflects the economic conditions in both China and U.S., and that the efficient and fair solution of the problem requires policy changes in both countries. On the industrial policy dispute, the first conclusion is that the issue of forced technology transfer is largely a dispute about China using its market power to benefit itself at the expense of its trade partners. The second conclusion is that China’s use of market power can last only until the other large countries could unite and retaliate as a group. The inevitability of retaliation means that China should replace the joint-venture (JV) mechanism for technological diffusion with other ways to strengthen its technological capability. On the U.S. concern about whether China trade weakens its national security, the first conclusion is that the notion of national security that is commonly adopted in the U.S. trade policy debate is ignorant about the primary determinants of U.S. capability in innovation. By focusing instead mainly on how to hold down China technologically, the long-run outcome will be a technologically weaker U.S. and hence, a more vulnerable U.S. The second conclusion is that the U.S. must identify a clear, short list of critical technologies and critical infrastructure for the recently reformed Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to cover, and update this list constantly. Otherwise, the broad and changing nature of notions about national security would allow the bureaucratically driven phenomenon of mission-creep to steadily expand the coverage of the CFIUS process, thereby steadily rendering CFIUS to be operationally capricious. Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978 (e.g. many parts of China now look like Singapore and China is Africa’s biggest donor), there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies despite China’s status as a developing economy under WTO rules. Our principal policy suggestion to President Trump is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game. While fair economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short run, it generally creates a win-win outcome in the long run.     

Consumer stated purchasing preferences and corporate social responsibility in the wood products industry: A conjoint analysis in the U.S. and China

The impacts of disclosed level of corporate social responsibility (CSR), domestic versus imported origin and type of construction on consumers' stated wood product purchasing preferences were examined in the U.S. and China. Hierarchical logit models based on a Bayesian framework were utilized to test the magnitude and statistical significance of each wood product attribute using survey data. Results indicate that U.S. and Chinese respondents: (a) were more likely to choose products from manufacturing companies with a higher level of CSR rating compared with an unknown one; (b) preferred domestically manufactured wood products compared to imported ones; and (c) expressed higher interest in wood products made of solid wood compared with composites. In terms of demographics, respondents' higher education levels corresponded with higher preferences for products from companies with the highest (five-star) CSR rating in the U.S. Statistically-significant income effects were detected only in the Chinese sample when respondents indicated their purchasing preferences for wood products with three-star or five-star CSR levels. Implications for improving wood products companies' managerial performance and suggestions for future studies are provided.     

Public funding for ocean energy: A comparison of the UK and U.S.

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the activities in which ocean energy public funding in the UK and the U.S. has been spent. It conducts a direct comparison of funding from the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) with that from the UK and Scottish Governments. UK investment in the sector has been relatively sustained and has increased since 2002. Almost $295 million has been spent in total, across multiple funding bodies. U.S. spending began with the establishment of the Marine Hydrokinetic division of the DoE Water Power Programme in 2008, which has administered all non-defence federal public funding for the sector. U.S. funding has steadily increased since 2008, with the total funding approaching $92 million.Approximately 40% of total U.S. spending has been on underpinning R&D activities, compared to 20% in the UK which has had a larger focus on funding full scale test infrastructure and related deployment activities. Whilst the U.S. has seen steadily increasing funding for all activities to support the sector, UK funding for deployment activities, especially test centre infrastructure and demonstration activities, has not been sustained and has had significant peaks and troughs in recent years as funding programmes and initiatives have started and finished.     

Why is the rate of single-parenthood lower in Canada than in the U.S.? A dynamic equilibrium analysis of welfare policies

Abstract .  A critical question in the design of welfare policies is whether to target aid according to household composition, as was done in the U.S. under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, or to rely exclusively on means-testing, as in Canada. Restricting aid to single mothers, for instance, has the potential to distort behaviour along three demographic margins: marriage, fertility, and divorce. We contrast the Canadian and the U.S. policies within an equilibrium model of household formation and human capital investment on children. Policy differences we consider are eligibility, dependence of transfers on the number of children, and generosity of transfers. Our simulations indicate that the policy differences can account for the higher rate of single-parenthood in the U.S. They also show that Canadian welfare policy is more effective for fostering human capital accumulation among children from poor families. Interestingly, a majority of agents in our benchmark economy prefers a welfare system that targets single mothers (as the U.S. system does), yet (unlike the U.S. system) does not make transfers dependent on the number of children.     

Lessons for Europe from the U.S. Growth Resurgence

This paper analyses the sources of U.S. labour productivitygrowth in the late 1990s and presents projections for both outputand labour productivity growth. We show that investment in informationtechnology (IT) played a substantial role in the U.S. productivityrevival and that similar trends are evident in data for otherleading OECD countries. We then outline a methodology for projectingtrend output and productivity growth for the broadly definedU.S. economy. Our base-case projection puts trend productivitygrowth at 1.78 percent per year over the next decade with arange of 1.14 to 2.38 percent, reflecting fundamental uncertaintiesabout the rate of technical progress in IT-production and investmentin IT-equipment and software. Our central projection is belowthe average growth rate of 2.07 percent during 1995 -2000. Similarprojections for Europe must await more complete information.(JEL J2)     

Wealth and the capitalist spirit

The wealth distribution in the U.S. is more unequal than either the income or earnings distribution, a fact current models of saving behavior have difficulty explaining. Using Max Weber’s [Weber, M. (1905). The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. Charles Scribners’ and Sons (1958 translated edition)] idea that individuals may have a ‘capitalist spirit’, I construct and simulate a model where individuals accumulate wealth for its own sake rather than as deferred consumption. Including capitalist spirit preferences in a simple life cycle model, with no other modifications, generates a skewness of wealth consistent with that observed in the U.S. economy. Furthermore, capitalist spirit preferences provide a way to generate decreasing risk aversion with increases in wealth without resorting to idiosyncratic rates of time preference.     

Tariff evasion and rules of origin violations under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement

Abstract Using product‐level data on trade between Canada and the U.S., this paper presents evidence of tariff evasion and violation of the rules of origin occurring under the Canada‐U.S. Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA). It shows that more imports go unreported at the destination country when tariffs are higher. Consistent with the tariff evasion hypothesis, this result implies that the trade creation effect of a free trade agreement may in fact be due to less underreporting. Further, this paper shows that the larger Canadian tariff preference margin for the U.S. is associated with more goods originating in third countries being transshipped through the U.S. territory for re‐export. The preference margin is also positively correlated with the value of excess imports from the U.S., which qualify for preferential treatment. Both results suggest the presence of persistent violations of CUSFTA’s rules of origin.     

The political business cycle: An extension of Nordhaus's model

Summary Nordhaus's (1975) model of the political business cycle is extended in this paper by explicitly formulating the link between the economic sphere (represented by the Phillips curve) and fiscal policy. This extended model yields the hypothesis that during an electoral period the budgetary policy is contractionary in the first half and expansionary in the second half with the consequences of a reduction in unemployment (increase in inflation) before elections and a rise in unemployment (decrease in inflation) after elections. This hypothesis is tested against the data of the Austrian economy by a non-parametric test (which leads to a rejection of our hypothesis for Austria). The extent of the political business cycle bias is demonstrated by policy simulations within a macroeconomic model.

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Zusammenfassung Das Modell vonNordhaus (1975) über den Politischen Konjunkturzyklus wird in diesem Artikel erweitert, indem explizit die Beziehung zwischen dem ökonomischen Bereich (repräsentiert durch die Phillips-Kurve) und der Fiskalpolitik hergestellt wird. Dieses erweiterte Modell führt zu der Hypothese, daß während einer Legislaturperiode die Budgetpolitik in der ersten Hälfte restriktiv und in der zweiten Hälfte expansiv ist. Als Konsequenz dieser Politik kommt es zu einer Verringerung der Arbeitslosigkeit (einem Anstieg der Inflation) vor Wahlen und einem Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit (einer Verringerung der Inflation) nach den Wahlen. Diese Hypothese wird an Hand österreichischer Daten mit Hilfe eines nichtparametrischen Tests geprüft (was zu einer Ablehnung unserer Hypothese für Österreich führt). Das quantitative Ausmaß des durch den Politischen Konjunkturzyklus entstehenden bias wird dann mit Hilfe von politischen Simulationen im Rahmen eines makroökonomischen Modells demonstriert.

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Definitions AK Public purchases of goods and services + public investment (A.S.) - AT Unemployed persons, in total (in 1.000) - AZA Worked hours per worker (in hours) - BAU Central government's expenditures (outlays) in total (A.S.) - BEI Central government's revenues (receipts) in total (A.S.) - BS Budget deficit of the Central government (A.S.) - CB Labour supply (in 1.000) - CH Unemployment rate (%) - CON Public consumption (A.S.) - COR Public consumption (A.S. 1964) - CPN Private consumption (A.S.) - CPR Private consumption (A.S. 1964) - CUB Current balance (A.S.) - DS Direct taxes + public income from property-transfers to households + transfers from households (A.S.) - DX DS-public income from property (A.S.) - D7273 Dummy for monetary policy and Dummy for change from gross turnover tax to VAT (1972+1; 1973–1; other 0) - D7278 Dummy for investment tax (1972+1; 1973–1; 1977+1; 1978–1; other 0) - D73US Dummy for shift of employers to employees (1973+1; other 0) - D7375 Dummy for incomes tax reform (1973–1; 1975–1; other 0) - D7778 Dummy for extra VAT (1977+1; 1978–1; other 0) - EBE Population in total (in 1.000) - EET Employment in total + unemployed (total labour supply; in 1.000) - ESE Employers (in 1.000) - EUS Employees (in 1.000) - FBN Monetary base (A.S.) - FGN Money M1 (A.S.) - FG Money M1 (A.S. 1964) - GDN Gross domestic product (A.S.) - GDR Gross domestic product (A.S. 1964) - GER Energy (1.000 t/TCE) - GIR Industry output (A.S. 1964) - GE Profits in total (A.S.) - GV Profits in total (A.S. 1964) - IS Indirect taxes—transfers to firms (A.S.) - ITN Gross fixed investment (A.S.) - ITR Gross fixed investment (A.S. 1964) - JR Final domestic demand (A.S. 1964) - LA Stocks and statistical discrepancies; National account basis (A.S.) - LEAD Difference of one major party over the other in parliament in percentage points - LB Foreign balance (A.S.) - LKV Long term capital transactions (A.S.) - MA Money M1 + profits (A.S. 1964) - MMN Imports of goods and services (A.S.) - MMR Imports of goods and services (A.S. 1964) - OIN Public investment (A.S.) - OKG Public purchases of goods and services (A.S.) - PC Private consumption deflator (1964=100) - PEN Energy prices (1964=100) - PI Gross fixed investment deflator (1964=100) - PK Imports of goods and services deflator (1964=100) - PL Exports of goods and services deflator (1964=100) - PT Gross domestic product deflator (1964=100) - RES Value change in balance of payments reserves (A.S.) - RIR Interest rate for long term bonds (%) - SD Stocks and statistical discrepancies; National account basis (A.S. 1964) - ST Overall indirect taxes—subsidies; National account basis (A.S.) - STD Direct taxes (A.S.) - STI Indirect taxes (A.S.) - TAH Transfers to households (A.S.) - TBB Trade balance (A.S.) - TTT Time (1960, 1961,..., 1979) - TUN Transfers to firms (A.S.) - TVH Transfers from households (A.S.) - VW Gross fixed investment plus exports of goods and services (A.S. 1964) - WON Changes in foreign currency reserves of the National Bank (A.S.) - WKU Changes in foreign currency reserves of all commercial banks (A.S.) - WW Changes in balance of payments' official reserves (A.S.) - XB Relative energy prices (1964=100) - XXN Exports of goods and services (A.S.) - XXR Exports of goods and services (A.S. 1964) - YLN Wages and salaries (compensation of employees; A.S.) - YOB Public income from property (A.S.) - YVN Net disposable income (A.S.) - YY Net disposable income (A.S.) - YYN National income (A.S.) - ZST Statistical discrepancies in balance of payments (A.S.) - A.S billion Austrian Schilling at current prices - A.S. 1964 billion Austrian Schilling at constant prices (basis 1964)     

Evaluating the length of stay and value of time in a pediatric emergency department with two models by comparing two different albuterol delivery systems

Abstract

Objective:

Asthma is one of the most common childhood illnesses and accounts for a substantial amount of pediatric emergency department visits. Historically, acute exacerbations are treated with a beta agonist via nebulizer therapy (NEB). However, with the advent of the spacer, the medication can be delivered via a metered dose inhaler (MDI?+?S) with the same efficacy for mild-to-moderate asthma exacerbations. To date, no study has been done to evaluate emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS) and opportunity cost between nebulized vs MDI?+?S. The objective of this study was to compare ED LOS and associated opportunity cost among children who present with a mild asthma exacerbation according to the delivery mode of albuterol: MDI?+?S vs NEB.

Methods:

A structured, retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted. Medical records were reviewed from children aged 1–18 years treated at an urban pediatric ED from July 2007 to June 2008 with a discharge diagnosis International Classification of Disease-9 of asthma. Length of stay was defined: time from initial triage until the time of the guardian signature on the discharge instructions. An operational definition was used to define a mild asthma exacerbation; those patients requiring only one standard weight based albuterol treatment. Emergency department throughput time points, demographic data, treatment course, and delivery method of albuterol were recorded.

Results:

Three hundred and four patients were analyzed: 94 in the MDI?+?S group and 209 in the NEB group. Mean age in years for the MDI?+?S group was 9.57 vs 5.07 for the NEB group (p?<?0.001). The percentage of patients that received oral corticosteroids was 39.4% in the MDI?+?S group vs 61.7% in the NEB group (p?<?0.001). There was no difference between groups in: race, insurance status, gender, or chest radiographs. The mean ED LOS for patients in the MDI?+?S group was 170 minutes compared to 205 minutes in the NEB group. On average, there was a 25.1 minute time savings per patient in ED treatment time (p?<?0.001; 95% CI?=?3.8–31.7). Significant predictors of outcome for treatment time were chest radiograph, steroids, and treatment mode. Opportunity cost analysis estimated a potential cost savings of $213,532 annually using MDI?+?S vs NEB.

Conclusion:

In mild asthma exacerbations, administering albuterol via MDI?+?S decreases ED treatment time when compared to administering nebulized albuterol. A metered dose inhaler with spacer utilization may enhance opportunity cost savings and decrease the left without being seen population with improved throughput.

Limitations:

The key limitations of this study include its retrospective design, the proxy non-standard definition of mild asthma exacerbation, and the opportunity cost calculation, which may over-estimate the value of ED time saved based on ED volume.     

Intrafirm trade and the developing countries: an assessment of the data

The state of general empirical knowledge of the extent of and trends in intrafirm international trade are surveyed with attention concentrated on United States and Canadian data sources. Focus is on conceptual and definitional distinctions, U.S. trade with U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates, U.S. related-party imports, international subcontracting and value added tariffs, aggregative data from individual developing countries, and customs documents as micro-level data soruces. In this effort to outline the reasons for the growing concern with the phenomenon of intrafirm trade and to summarize the most readily available data on its nature and growth, the following were among the important points made: 1) it is essential to arrive at clear and uniform definitions as to what is meant by "intrafirm trade"; 2) the share of U.S. non-petroleum imports from developing countries which originates in majority-owned foreign affiliates of U.S. firms is declining; 3) very high proportions of some U.S. imports from developing countries originate with "related parties," and there are frequently large differences between import unit values in related-party trade and those in non-related-party trade; 4) international subcontracting, as indicated by the usage of value added tariff provisions, continues to be a rapidly growing element in manufactured goods trade between the U.S. and developing countries; and 5) further data should be collected and empirical research conducted.     

Refinery mix in the U.S., Canada,and the E.E.C.

This paper examines the response of gasoline's share of a barrel of crude oil to changes in relative petroleum product prices. An inter-country comparison of the U.S., Canada, and the E.E.C. allows investigation of different parts of the production possibility frontier. In the U.S. and Canada, with relatively large amounts of cracking capacity, there is price responsiveness of the product mix to changes in relative product prices. In the U.S., both residual and distillates are substitutes in production for gasoline, but for Canada, only distillate is a substitute. Part of this difference is attributed to the U.S. oil quota. For the E.E.C. with relatively small amounts of cracking capacity there was no discernible effect of product prices on product mix.     

Non-tradable goods and the border effect puzzle

The surprisingly high Canada–U.S. border effect estimated by McCallum has been puzzling trade economists in the last ten years. We argue in this paper that conventional estimates of the border effect without consideration of non-tradable goods can overstate the trade reducing effect of the national border and the impacts can be considerable. We then explore the Canada–U.S. case with a numerical general equilibrium model with parameters calibrated to 2001 data. Our counterfactual experiment results suggest that after adjusting for effects of non-tradable goods the Canada–U.S. border effect is reduced to 2.11.     

Joint Ventures, Universities, and Success in the Advanced Technology Program

America's most innovative firms (with 40%+ of U.S. patents assigned to U.S. entities during 1988–96) participate, often repeatedly, in the Commerce Department's Advanced Technology Program (ATP). Participation significantly increases firms'innovation (patenting) while receiving ATP support versus before and after. Firms generally increase patenting by 5–30 patents per year when participating—up 4 to 25% from before participation. University participation in a project increases firm patenting. Funding amount matters for single participants (often startups with small R&D budgets) with positive impact limited to firms with large grants. For joint ventures, participation is more important than funding level. (JEL O3 , H5 , L24 )     

Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model

Does the search and matching model fit aggregate U.S. labor market data? While the model has become an important tool of macroeconomic analysis, recent literature pointed to some significant failures in accounting for the data. This paper aims to answer two questions: (i) Does the model fit the data, and, if so, on what dimensions? (ii) Does the data “fit” the model, i.e. what are the data which are relevant to be explained by the model?The analysis shows that the model fits certain specifications of the data on many dimensions, though not on all. This includes capturing the high persistence and high volatility of most of the key variables, the negative co-variation of unemployment and vacancies, and the behavior of the worker job finding rate. A key role in this fit is played by the convexity of hiring costs and the stochastic properties of the separation rate. The latter is a major component of the rate discounting the future value of the job-worker match.The paper offers a workable, empirically grounded version of the model for the analysis of aggregate U.S. labor market dynamics.     

Labour market institutions and the industry wage distribution

The paper studies the industry wage structures of Austria, Norway, the union sector of the U. S. as well as the non-union sector of the U. S. We make comparable regressions for each country, and are thus able to compare the sectoral earnings patterns controlling for the usual individual characteristics. Our results confirm the hypothesis that the pattern of the inter-industry pay structure is largely independent of labour market institutions: High paying industries in a non-union environment tend to pay high wages also in regimes where bargaining is very centralised and coordinated.This, however, does not mean that collective bargaining does not matter. The influence is mainly on the amount of wage dispersion: We find considerably lower industry pay gaps in centralised Austria and Norway than in decentralised U. S. Within the U. S., pay differentials within the union sector slightly exceed those of the non-union sector.The results give support to non-competitive explanations of the labour market. If efficiency wage mechanisms are the reason for wage differentials we expect central bargainers to internalise these effects. Competitive explanations, on the other hand, would predict no difference between the non-union outcome and a central agreement aiming at achieving full employment.This work was conducted while we were both affiliated with the University of California at Berkeley, and we thank the Institute of Industrial Relations at the University of California, Berkeley, for its support and hospitality. The research was supported by the Austrian Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung under the project JO548-SOZ (Zweimüller) and the Norwegian NORAS under the LOS program (Barth). A preliminary version of the paper was presented at the Labour Seminar at the University of California, Berkeley. We thank the participants, especially Bill Dickens and Jonathan Leonard for valuable comments. We are indebted to Bill Dickens also for giving us access to the U. S. data set CPS 1983. Thanks also to Herbert Walther for useful comments.     

The “swing of the pendulum” from public to market support for science and technology: Is the U.S. leading the way?

The structure and financing of science and technology activities are undergoing a slow, but profound, change. This change can be briefly characterized as a shift from relying and supporting public science to a stronger emphasis on “market-based” incentives for science and technology. In this paper we analyze this shift in a historical perspective, discussing both the theoretical explanations and the empirical trends of the ongoing change. While we do not claim to provide a comprehensive and exhaustive identification of the causes of this shift, we argue that it is largely driven by the perception of a shift of the U.S. policy towards market-based, rather than publicly supported, incentives for science and technology. This, in turn—given the strong economic performance of the United States over the 1990s—has influenced policies in most OECD countries, especially in Europe.We conclude by analyzing the evolution of research in U.S. higher education and find two major trends: an increasing diversity in the number of institutions of different types other than universities and a steady and continuous public funding of the leading U.S. universities. This has allowed the construction of an infrastructure now used largely by the private sector, but it also noted that the United States has not compromised public support for core areas or in those fields in which there is a clear perception that market incentives are not sufficient for meeting the strategic targets of the U.S. policy. The implication is that there is a considerable policy diversity in the U.S. practice and that all aspects of this diversity should be considered when using the United States as a reference.