Bank liquidity risk: From John Law (1705) to Walter Bagehot (1873)

Abstract

By granting credit and issuing money, banks take a liquidity risk - that is, the risk of being unable to reimburse its notes in coins. Five different explanations of a bank liquidity crisis have been provided by different authors, since John Law and up to Walter Bagehot. First, according to Law (1703) and Steuart ([1767] [1998]), the distinction between money of account (the pound sterling) and money of payment (the guinea) may induce a bank run. Second, according to Cantillon (1730), Hume ([1752 Goschen, G. J., 1861. The Theory of the Foreign Exchanges. London; Effingham Wilson, Royal, 1861. French edition, Théorie des changes étrangers, Librairie Guillaumin et C^ie Paris, 1892. 1861. [Google Scholar]] 1972), Ricardo (1810-1823) and the Currency School (1837-1858), the bank reserve becomes insufficient as a consequence of a diminishing value of money allied with over issues. Third, according to Thornton ([1802 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]] 1939, 1991 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]) and the Banking School (1840-1857), it can occur as a consequence of a falling exchange rate that is not linked with over issues. Fourth, according to Smith (1776) and the Banking School, discounting of fictitious bills, by decreasing the shareholders' funds, leads to bank illiquidity. Lastly, according to Thornton ([1802 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]] 1939, 1991 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]) and Bagehot (1873), the liquidity crisis is a consequence of bank panics: a "flight" to money for Thornton, a "flight" to credit for Bagehot. The analysis of these five different explanations sheds new light on classical monetary controversies.     

Post Keynesian endogenous money theory: A theoretical and empirical investigation of the credit demand schedule

The article investigates the relationship between interest rates and loan amounts provided by commercial banks from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. Theoretically, some scholars belonging to the post Keynesian endogenous money tradition advocate that a decrease (increase) in interest rates leads to a positive (negative) effect on the amount of loans demanded by households and firms. On the other hand, some heterodox economists maintain that interest rates do not stimulate firms’ credit demand but that a certain degree of influence is allowed for loans provided to households. By applying a vector autoregression (VAR) and vector error-correction model (VECM) methodology to European Central Bank and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development data for the eurozone, this article proposes an empirical validation of such theoretical premises by analysing the relationship between the different types of credit provided by commercial banks and the corresponding interest rates. The main results show a negative relationship between the interest rates and the credit provided for the purchase of houses. Conversely, no significant relationship is found between loans granted to enterprises and loans for the purchase of consumption goods and the corresponding interest rates.     

On some ‘Austrian’ misreadings of Cantillon's notions of intrinsic value and market price

The article clarifies some aspects of the Cantillonian notions of intrinsic value and of market prices. Furthermore, the major flaws of the ‘Austrian’ interpretations put forward in recent years by Rothbard and Thornton are highlighted. This criticism provides an additional dimension to the view already expressed by Groenewegen against the new edition of Cantillon's Essai by Thornton. Finally, the connection between the Essai and mature classical economics is highlighted and the proposed ‘Austrian’ interpretation of Cantillon is strongly rejected.     

A monetary economy with counterfeiting

We apply a search-theoretic model of fiat money to study the equilibria in which counterfeit money is accepted. Circulation of counterfeit money presupposes that the agents are impatient and that the punishment for holding it is not too severe. When the stock of genuine money is small counterfeit money may improve the efficiency of the economy. We establish that a monetary economy can be created with private provision of (counterfeit) money as long as the ruler has control over punishments. Totally noncooperative provision will fail as the economy will become flooded with money.     

Insights on endogenous money and the liquidity preference theory of interest

It is argued that the debate between “structuralist” and “horizontalist” has long been obscured because of inadequate treatment, in both approaches, of the credit-money supply and of the total money supply. As a result, endogenous money models still have serious limitations today. On the one hand, the bank loan markup and the loan interest rate are exogenous in the horizontalist model, which supposes that they do not depend on the money/liquidity market conditions (as if bank loans did not compete with the existing liquidity). On the other hand, although interest rates are endogenous in the structuralist model, they result from inappropriate treatment of the loan supply and money/liquidity supply. This article aims to remove these shortcomings. It offers a theoretical framework and formal modeling where the creditworthy demand for loans determines the bank loan supply, given the central bank refinancing interest rate, while the total supply and demand for liquidity-money determines the markup and the market rate of interest in accordance with Keynes’s liquidity preference theory. In this framework, the post Keynesian theory of endogenous money and Keynes’s “verticalist” view prove to be analytically complementary.     

内生货币体系下房价波动对货币供求的冲击

在内生货币体系下,房价上涨导致我国内生货币扩张的途径主要有两条:一是基于房地产抵押信贷需求膨胀引致的商业银行内生货币供给的扩张;二是被房价持续上涨及人民币升值预期所吸引的外汇流入导致央行大量基础货币的被动投放。这样会对货币供应量目标有效性带来影响。因此应将房地产市场监测数据列入当前货币供应量调控的参照指标。     

美国货币市场基金相关法律问题研究

我国货币市场基金的发展刚刚起步,探讨我国货币市场基金的发展具有重要的意义,通过对美国货币市场基金相关法律问题进行研究,希望对我国货币市场基金的发展产生一定的作用。     

Why does the velocity of money move pro‐cyclically?

The velocity of money usually rises in expansions and falls in recessions This paper explains this pro‐cyclical movement of velocity using two ideas: (i) during business cycles the movement of investment and consumption of durable goods has a larger amplitude than consumption of non‐durable goods and services; (ii) the velocity associated with expenditure on investment and durable goods is much higher than the velocity associated with consumption of non‐durable goods and services, because the former expenditures are synchronized with the attainment of money by economic agents whereas the latter are not. In this setting, the rise in the weight of expenditure in durable goods relative to the weight of non‐durable goods and services, which occurs during expansions, generates an increase in the average velocity of circulation. The opposite happens during recessions and thus velocity moves pro‐cyclically.