Reconciling Kuznets and Habbakuk in a unified growth theory

Economic historians have debated the relative labor productivity of the United States agricultural and nonagricultural sectors during the nineteenth century. David (Discussion papers in economic and social history, University of Oxford, 1996) offers a reconciliation of the opposing views by suggesting that while productivity per hour worked in agriculture was comparable to productivity in other sectors, the number of hours worked per year was relatively low, creating a large gap in annual output per worker across sectors. We model and extend a version of Davis’s reconciliation within a unified growth theory that makes connections between the decline in traditional agriculture and several other features of United States development. The dynamic general equilibrium model is consistent with the structural transformation having minor direct and indirect effects on aggregate labor productivity per hour, but substantial effects on aggregate labor productivity per worker. The model also provides a close match to the trends in schooling, fertility, rates of return to physical capital, and labor productivity growth in the nineteenth century.      

Human capital and fertility in Chinese clans before modern growth

This paper studies the effect of changes in the return to human capital on the fertility–education relationship. The setting is in Anhui Province, China in the thirteenth to twentieth centuries. Over this period, key changes occurred in the civil service examination system, providing a means to test whether incentives for acquiring education influenced fertility decisions. I form an intergenerationally linked dataset from over 43,000 individuals from all social strata to examine the evidence for a child quantity–quality tradeoff. First, as the civil service examination system became more predictable and less discretionary starting in the seventeenth century, raising the return to human capital, I find evidence that households with a lower number of children had a higher chance that one of their sons would participate in the state examinations. This finding is robust to accounting for differences in resources, health, parental human capital, and demographic characteristics. Importantly, the finding is not limited to a small subset of rich households but present in the sample as a whole. Second, the negative relationship between fertility and education disappeared as the lower chance to become an official during the nineteenth century implied a decline in the return to human capital. Taken together, my findings support the hypothesis that fertility choices respond to changes in the return to human capital.     

Gordon's accumulation theory: The highest stage of stadial theory

This essay examines the intellectual antecedents of David Gordon's social structure of accumulation (SSA) approach. It argues that Gordon's systematic treatment of long periods of growth and stagnation is the culmination of a long Marxist tradition which began early in the twentieth century with the work of Hilferding, Bukharin, and Lenin. Contemporary Marxist analyses of the recovery of capitalism from the great depression of the late nineteenth century parallel that developed by Gordon for the post-World War II period. Gordon's approach is genealogically linked to these turn of the century analyses through the work of Ernest Mandel on late capitalism and through the American monopoly capital school. Gordon's key contribution is to transform the early Marxist theory of the highest stage of capitalism into a general theory of capitalist stages     

Economics,Democracy, and the Distribution of Capital Ownership

This article holds that widespread, practical access to capital acquisition is essential for sustainable widespread economic prosperity and democracy. The founders of the U.S.A. agreed that sustainable democracy required widespread ownership of land to provide a viable earning capacity sufficient to support robust participation in democratic government. The importance of widespread land ownership to individual prosperity and sustainable democracy was supported not only by the prevailing philosophical views of property, it was also apparent to the common man and woman. Compared to Europe, America offered widespread access to land ownership, higher wages, better work conditions, cheaper staples and greater individual freedom, equal opportunity, prosperity, and political participation. This conviction that widespread access to ownership is a necessary condition for widespread prosperity and sustainable democracy continued throughout most of the nineteenth century, but today public discourse reveals virtually no trace of this once universally held opinion. This article suggests that the disappearance of this conviction can be traced to an erroneous view shaped by neoclassical economics and Keynesian economics. According to this view, (1) the disappearance of the American frontier and industrialization made the goal of widespread capital ownership either impractical or of little or no economic significance and (2) by way of technological advance, sufficient earning capacity and consumer demand to promote growth and sustain democracy can be achieved, without widespread ownership, primarily through jobs and welfare. Although differing in many respects, both mainstream schools, along with Adam Smith’s classical economics, share one common but unstated economic assumption: the broader distribution of capital acquisition (in itself) has no fundamental relationship to the fuller employment of people and capital, the broader distribution of greater individual earning capacity, and growth. Contemporary thinking, shaped by these economic schools, also tacitly assumes that widespread capital ownership is not essential for the sustainable individual earning capacity needed to support robust democracy. This erroneous “ownership-neutrality assumption” (1) contradicts both the views of America’s founders and the colonial experience, and (2) provides theoretical justification for structuring capital markets and capital acquisition transactions to unfairly and dysfunctionally favor existing owners at the expense of broader ownership distribution, more widely shared prosperity, greater efficiency, ecologically friendly growth, and a vital democracy. America’s conscientious founders would be shocked by the diminished importance of the distribution of ownership in the mainstream analysis of prices, efficiency, production, growth, and democracy. Rather than enhancing democracy, they would view the “ownership-neutrality assumption” of mainstream economics as contributing to its deterioration and corruption. They would openly search for economic analysis built on an alternate assumption more consistent with their understanding of the requisite conditions for sustainable democracy. This article advances an economic analysis that suspends the ownership-neutrality assumption, replaces it with a “broader-ownership-growth assumption,” and suggests a voluntary market strategy for substantially broadening capital ownership, enhancing individual earning capacity, and providing the widespread economic prosperity needed for robust democracy.     

THE VANISHING BEQUEST TAX: THE COMPARATIVE EVOLUTION OF BEQUEST TAXATION IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Bequest tax revenues have been declining in OECD countries for at least 70 years. We propose an explanation that is based on a dynamic politico‐economic model where the evolution of bequest taxation is determined by wealth inequality. Since economic development induces a growing role of labor income and thus a reduction of wealth inequality, bequest taxation is reduced over time. The model also embeds a process of structural reallocation from agriculture to manufacturing and a consequent shift of the tax base from easy‐to‐tax land to hard‐to‐tax capital. This process implies a lower tax level and slower equalization‐induced tax reduction, the higher is the tax avoidance rate and the less developed is the economy. The introduction of franchise restrictions which are gradually lifted over time allows the hump‐shaped long‐term evolution of bequest taxation to be reproduced starting from the nineteenth century for those countries that are now modern industrial democracies. The evolution of political institutions also helps to explain the discrepancies currently observed between tax systems in developed and underdeveloped countries.     

Heinrich von Storch's innovative contributions to economics

Heinrich von Storch was a classical economist of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century; he was of German descent and of Russian nationality; his main work was written in French. This paper tries to present the essence of Storch's innovative ideas and contrasts them with contemporary British and French economic thinking on value, land rent, foreign trade, money and currency, “inner goods,” and development. It is argued that Storch was an economist of moderate impact on literature but of high professional relevance.     

Economics,Democracy, and the Distribution of Capital Ownership

This article holds that widespread, practical access to capital acquisition is essential for sustainable widespread economic prosperity and democracy. The founders of the U.S.A. agreed that sustainable democracy required widespread ownership of land to provide a viable earning capacity sufficient to support robust participation in democratic government. The importance of widespread land ownership to individual prosperity and sustainable democracy was supported not only by the prevailing philosophical views of property, it was also apparent to the common man and woman. Compared to Europe, America offered widespread access to land ownership, higher wages, better work conditions, cheaper staples and greater individual freedom, equal opportunity, prosperity, and political participation. This conviction that widespread access to ownership is a necessary condition for widespread prosperity and sustainable democracy continued throughout most of the nineteenth century, but today public discourse reveals virtually no trace of this once universally held opinion. This article suggests that the disappearance of this conviction can be traced to an erroneous view shaped by neoclassical economics and Keynesian economics. According to this view, (1) the disappearance of the American frontier and industrialization made the goal of widespread capital ownership either impractical or of little or no economic significance and (2) by way of technological advance, sufficient earning capacity and consumer demand to promote growth and sustain democracy can be achieved, without widespread ownership, primarily through jobs and welfare. Although differing in many respects, both mainstream schools, along with Adam Smith’s classical economics, share one common but unstated economic assumption: the broader distribution of capital acquisition (in itself) has no fundamental relationship to the fuller employment of people and capital, the broader distribution of greater individual earning capacity, and growth. Contemporary thinking, shaped by these economic schools, also tacitly assumes that widespread capital ownership is not essential for the sustainable individual earning capacity needed to support robust democracy. This erroneous “ownership-neutrality assumption” (1) contradicts both the views of America’s founders and the colonial experience, and (2) provides theoretical justification for structuring capital markets and capital acquisition transactions to unfairly and dysfunctionally favor existing owners at the expense of broader ownership distribution, more widely shared prosperity, greater efficiency, ecologically friendly growth, and a vital democracy. America’s conscientious founders would be shocked by the diminished importance of the distribution of ownership in the mainstream analysis of prices, efficiency, production, growth, and democracy. Rather than enhancing democracy, they would view the “ownership-neutrality assumption” of mainstream economics as contributing to its deterioration and corruption. They would openly search for economic analysis built on an alternate assumption more consistent with their understanding of the requisite conditions for sustainable democracy. This article advances an economic analysis that suspends the ownership-neutrality assumption, replaces it with a “broader-ownership-growth assumption,” and suggests a voluntary market strategy for substantially broadening capital ownership, enhancing individual earning capacity, and providing the widespread economic prosperity needed for robust democracy.     

Rhetoric and logic in Smith's Description of the Division of Labor

Abstract

This article analyses the first chapter of the Wealth of Nations, where the division of labour is defined and its effects described. It first shows the rhetoric and logical effects that are used to win the reader's goodwill. Then it reviews nineteenth century debates on the validity of the theory. Finally, it cites three real cases, where the division of labour does not increase the productive power of labour. In conclusion, it suggests that the theory on division of labour appears to require some adjustment, while acknowledging that some of the facts underlying arguments in its support are naturally true.     

Productivity and Growth in Perspective: Chile, 1833–2010

This paper presents a long-period growth accounting for Chile, an emerging economy, from the early nineteenth century through to 2010. The methodology, data, and sources used are thoroughly discussed, and the results are compared with a benchmark based on a sample of countries. Some of the findings are: Chile's average productivity growth over the whole period is explained mainly by capital deepening, but long period averages hide huge and variable differences when various time subdivisions are explored. Gross TFP growth increases throughout phases until 1973 when an international reduction sets in. The research also put the role of employment-population ratio into perspective.     

简评麦夸里时代

麦夸里是澳大利亚早期历史时期一位杰出的政治家。在他管理的十一年中,新南威尔士有了较大发展。人口大幅增长,耕地大幅增加,羊的数量翻了十几倍,牛的数量也翻了将近十倍,猪的数量翻了3倍,马的数量也翻了3倍,促使流放地逐渐向自由移民殖民地转化。所以麦夸里使新南威尔士州从早期一块以收容犯下放逐罪者的殖民地,发展至能吸引自由移民,当中的转变和诸多措施,对19世纪前叶的澳大利亚社会产生了深远的影响力。     

Sector Specific Wage Rigidity and Factor Accumulation*

Economic expansion resulting from factor accumulation is introduced in the mobile capital and small open economy version of the Harris-Todaro model. Among other things, it is shown that economy expansion leads to normal effects on urban unemployment if land is introduced as a scarce input in the agricultural sector. However, capital accumulation and labour growth have indeterminate effects on the absolute level of urban unemployment.     

Traditional space vs. cyberspace: The changing role of geography in current international politics

In the post‐Cold War world, the competition and restraint of the bipolar Cold War are both gone, giving rise to two opposing forces: the unifying force of globalisation and the fragmenting impact of nationalism and geographic conflict. In the current international system, these two forces are confronted in different ways by three types of states, each with its own priorities and place for geography. For high technology, or twenty‐first century states, the focus is on globalisation and disputes cannot be solved by territorial acquisition. For nationalistic, or nineteenth century states, nationalist hostilities still predominate and gaining land is often still more important than wealth. Transitional, or twentieth century states, are caught in a vice between their advanced technological potential and their economic and social crises. Any accurate depiction of the current system must include all three types of states, as well as how their interaction affects the goals and behaviour of each type.     

要素投入结构变化对中国农业增长影响的实证研究

从生产要素结构变动的角度,分析了1985年与2004年中国各省(市、区)农业生产要素投入比例的变化,然后借助计量经济模型检验了两个时期要素产出弹性的差异。结果显示:随着资源配置市场化的深入,土地与劳动力在农业生产中的投入比例呈下降趋势,而资本的投入比例日益上升。就产出弹性而言,2004年资本要素的产出弹性最大,劳动次之,土地的产出弹性最小。但与1985年相比,各要素的产出弹性变化趋势不同,其中资本与土地的产出弹性呈现幅度不等的下降,而劳动的产出弹性则是上升的。研究同时表明中国农业产出处于规模报酬递增阶段,近期内增加农业的资本投入对农业的增长仍具有重要意义。     

我国商业银行推行战略成本管理的思考

随着我国商业银行股份制改造步伐的加快,各家银行为了保持竞争优势,在产品、服务、价格、质量、人才等方面展开了全方位的竞争。从成本角度来看,商业银行能否改变传统成本管理在某些方面的局限性,通过推行有效的战略成本管理,建立起本行的“低成本竞争优势”,已成为商业银行是否具有核心竞争力的关键因素之一。文章对传统成本管理与战略成本管理进行了差异比较,分析了战略成本管理的优势及商业银行推行战略成本管理的必要性,提出了现阶段商业银行推行战略成本管理的着力点,并需不断寻求特定条件下的最优模式。     

Harriet Martineau: A Popular Early Economics Educator

Harriet Martineau was one of the most widely read economic educators of the nineteenth century. This article examines Martineau's Illustrations of Political Economy, 1832–1834. Her work is reviewed in general, and one of the tales used by her to teach economics is analyzed in greater detail.     

The Economics of Karl Marx: Analysis and Applications

Abstract

Controversy focuses on three questions: Is capital a distinct factor of production? Is capital quantifiable in a theoretically consistent manner? Are process stories necessary around convergence to, or changes in, equilibrium interest rates? To all, Kaldor answers ‘yes’ to Knight's ‘no’. The controversy is historically important in: 1) shifting issues in recurring twentieth century capital theory controversies from periods of production to production functions, from roundaboutness to diminishing returns; 2) revealing Knight's position on increasing knowledge offsetting diminishing returns over time as an unacknowledged ‘precursor’ of new growth theory; 3) marking the turning point for Kaldor's attachment to Austrian theory.     

Accounting for the wealth of Denmark: a case study of Smithian growth using the emergence of modern accounting in Danish dairying

Abstract

The idea of “Smithian growth” rests on a “natural” development out of agriculture through capital accumulation, and the division of labour. We confront these concepts with an “historical experiment” and the case of Danish agriculture in the nineteenth century. Specifically, we look at how accounting was used to promote specialization, ultimately in butter production, leading to the massive increases in productivity that Smith predicted. We also observe the emergence of Smithian “philosophers”. This ultimately led to the capital-intensive industrialization of Danish agriculture through butter factories, and general development. We argue that this establishes the historical relevance of Smith’s theories.     

Swedish Geopolitics: From Rudolf Kjellén to a Swedish ‘Dual State’

Early in the twentieth century, Swedish geopolitical scholar Rudolf Kjellén wrote of the nineteenth century nation-state as a state of ‘land and people’, but he also suggested that in the twentieth century various empires would eventually force Central Europe to unify into a bloc of states under the protection of a powerful Germany. This concept of ‘state-bloc’ resembles Carl Schmitt’s idea of Grossraum and is also very similar to what later became NATO, but now with the United States, not Germany, as its central protecting power. Within the individual state, this duality of nation-state and state-bloc was fused with what Hans Morgenthau called a ‘dual state’ with a regular state hierarchy of the nation-state versus a parallel security hierarchy, now linked to the central power. After the Second World War, Sweden, despite its ‘policy of neutrality’, was placed under the US nuclear umbrella, creating a duality that typified Morgenthau’s idea of the ‘dual state’. The regular ‘democratic hierarchy’ was confronted by the US-leaning ‘security hierarchy’, with the latter intervening in the event of emergency. In the 1980s, the strength and unpredictability of the Swedish Social Democratic government became worrisome to the US security network. In a crisis situation, the ‘dual state’ – or what we might call a ‘double sovereignty’ of the ‘democratic state’ and the ‘security state’ – might prove unacceptable. In the final analysis, the Schmittian ‘sovereign’ is undivided.     

A story of large landowners and math skills: Inequality and human capital formation in long-run development, 1820–2000

We create a new dataset to test the influence of land inequality on long-run human capital formation in a global cross-country study and assess the importance of land inequality relative to income inequality. Our results show that early land inequality has a detrimental influence on math and science skills even a century later. We find that this influence is causal, using an instrumental variable (IV) approach with geological, climatic and other variables that are intrinsically exogenous. A second major contribution of our study is our assessment of the persistence of numerical cognitive skills, which are an important component of modern human capital measures. Early numeracy around 1820 is estimated using the age-heaping strategy. We argue that countries with early investments in numerical education entered a path-dependency of human capital-intensive industries, including skill-intensive agriculture and services. The combined long-run effects of land inequality and human capital path-dependence are assessed for the first time in this article.     

The American frontier: Technology versus immigration

How important was international immigration for the US and its demography during the nineteenth century? This paper investigates, quantitatively, its effect on the westward movement of population and the regional and secular changes in fertility. Beside immigration, two alternative forces are considered: technological progress and the land policy (the Homestead Act). An optimal growth model with endogenous fertility and migration is calibrated, and counterfactual experiments reveal that the main driving forces were productivity growth and the declining cost of transportation. International immigration played a lesser role.