Growth Effects of Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability in the EU

In this paper we study the relationship of fiscal policy and economicperformance of some core countries in the EU. Our aim is to find outwhether public deficit and public debt have consequences for real variables in the economies we consider. The background of our empirical study is a growth model that provides us with some predictions on the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. In a first step we then use Granger causality tests to analyze empirically whether some of the implications of our model arecompatible with the data. In a second step, we investigate whether the fiscalpolicies of the member states have been sustainable. Given this information,we then pursue the question of whether differences in the fiscal positions ofcountries have consequences as concerns the outcome of our empirical testsof step one. Finally, we study whether the impact of the public deficit ratiodepends on the magnitude of the debt ratio.     

Sustainability of Austrian public debt: a political economy perspective

Sustainability of Austrian public debt is investigated in the context of political objectives such as stabilizing the business cycle, increasing chances for being re-elected and implementing the ideologies of political parties. Several tests indicate that Austrian fiscal policies were sustainable in the period 1960–1974, while from 1975 on, public debt grew much more rapidly. The development of public debt in Austria seems to be driven not primarily by ideology, but by structural causes and a shift in the budgetary policy paradigm. We find some empirical evidence that governments in Austria dominated by one party run higher deficits than coalition governments. There are no indications of a political business cycle.     

财政可持续视阈下的地方政府债务现状分析与规制策略

地方政府债务的存在,严重制约了地方财政的可持续发展,甚至还会引发金融危机和经济危机。文章基于财政可持续角度分析地方政府债务发展现状,认为在现阶段要规制地方政府债务负面影响,必须强化地方政府债务风险识别,积极制定短期应对措施和深化长期制度建设。     

Unit roots and structural breakpoints in China’s macroeconomic and financial time series

This paper applies unit-root tests to 10 Chinese macroeconomic and financial time series that allow for the possibility of up to two endogenous structural breaks. We found that 6 of the series, i.e., GDP, GDP per capita, employment, bank credit, deposit liabilities and investment, can be more accurately characterized as a segmented trend stationarity process around one or two structural breakpoints as opposed to a stochastic unit root process. Our findings have important implications for policy-makers to formulate long-term growth strategy and short-run stabilization policies, as well as causality analysis among the series. __________ Translated from Economic Research Journal (经济研究), 2006, (1) (in Chinese)     

推动中国农村金融发展的财政政策梳理与评价

农村经济自身特点、国家产业政策和金融政策对农村金融发展的影响在相当程度上与财政政策有关,因为农村经济特点是客观存在的,在市场经济条件下这些问题的解决需要通过财政分配来缓解;而国家产业政策与金融政策是以全局需要为出发点,其对农村金融发展带来的不利影响往往也需要通过财政政策的运用来缓解,因此认真分析研究影响农村金融发展的财政政策制度因素,梳理、评价现行的促进农村金融发展的财政政策体系就显得尤为重要。     

促进主体功能区建设的财政政策研究--以黑龙江省为例

主体功能区发展是国家或地区一个重要的建设目标。黑龙江省主体功能区划分为重点、限制和禁止等三类开发区,但因其财政投资总量不足、财政支出结构失衡、转移支付功能弱化和生态补偿机制缺位等问题,在一定程度上影响了主体功能区的发展水平。在借鉴发达国家及有关省市区域财政政策经验的基础上,提出了加大财政投入力度、优化财政支出结构、规范转移支付制度、建立生态补偿机制和完善其他财政政策等促进黑龙江省主体功能区发展的财政政策建议,旨在为有关部门提供决策参考。     

Sustainability ranking and improvement of countries

Human society is on a collision course with nature, thus its sustainability is seriously questioned nowadays. To understand this problem better it is essential to define and measure sustainability. In this paper a model that uses fuzzy logic, called SAFE, is used to measure sustainability. The sustainability of a country is based on a multitude of basic indicators. In all 75 indicators for 128 countries are used. This work extends SAFE as follows: (a) The model is amended by an imputation procedure to fill in missing data, (b) the rule bases of SAFE are compiled algebraically, and (c) sustainability thresholds are defined so as to reflect expert opinion and international agreements and norms. Countries are ranked according to their sustainability index. Switzerland and Sweden take the first two places and Mauritania and Sudan the two last ones. A sensitivity analysis pinpoints those basic indicators that affect sustainability the most. Decision makers may focus on these indicators to improve sustainability.     

从自然资源经济学到可持续经济学

随着物质生活水平的快速提高,人类也面临着诸如森林退化、土地荒漠化、物种多样性丧失以及温室效应恶化等生存环境问题。可持续发展问题日益受到人们的关注,通过经济学的视角来研究可持续发展的可持续经济学得到了快速的发展。本文从经济学的角度界定了自然资源的概念,回顾了经济学对自然资源的研究历程,对自然资源经济学的起源、发展进行了评述;论证了自然资源经济学和可持续经济学的关系,指出在可持续发展问题研究中融合自然资源经济学和环境经济学的必然性,以自然资源经济学和环境经济学为重要元素的可持续经济学是可持续问题经济研究的高级阶段,文章进一步探讨了可持续经济学的分析框架、发展现状及存在的问题。     

退耕还林工程经济可持续性的实证分析——以陕西省为例

退耕还林工程是我国为解决水土流失、土地沙化等生态环境问题而采取的重大举措．作为国家的一项规模浩大的生态工程．其实施后的经济可持续性成为社会广泛关注的问题。本文以陕西省为例，利用2005年和2003年中国科学院农业政策研究中心（CCAP）对陕西省退耕地区进行的农户抽样调查数据．采用实证的方法，分析了工程实施后对农户的收入结构产生的影响，论证了工程的经济可持续性，并在最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

不同汇率制度下的货币政策、财政政策与最优货币区

本文讨论了１９９９年度诺贝尔经济学奖获得者－芒德尔的主要理论贡献及其现实意义,芒德尔的开放经济中的稳定政策理论认为：稳定政策的效果取决于汇率制度。在浮动汇率制度下,货币政策是有力的而财政政策是无力的;在固定汇率制度下,财政政策是有力的而货币政策是无力的。最优货币区的判别理论为研究欧洲货币联盟（ＥＭＵ）优缺点的研究人员提供了起点。     

制约主体功能区人口合理布局的现行财政政策因素分析

财政政策对促进形成主体功能合理人口布局具有重要影响。认为当前以户籍制为基础的财力配置机制、财政教育投入失衡、住房保障支出力度弱、社会保障统筹层次低、财政忽视就业培训等人力资本投资、退地农民跨区财政补偿机制设计缺失、土地出让收入在政府间的分配不合理以及转移支付制度安排不合理等八大财政政策因素制约了主体功能区人口合理布局。研究解决上述财政政策因素对主体功能区人口布局的约束,可以最大限度发挥财政政策的调控作用。     

Comparing tests of the theory of exhaustible resources

The empirical relevance of Hotelling’s exhaustible resource theory has been tested with primarily negative results. Tests have been performed on various resources, at different levels of aggregation, with varying market structures, and over different time periods. Consequently, it is difficult to draw any general conclusions concerning the theory’s applicability in explaining producer behavior, given the assumptions and restrictions implicit in the data and tests. This paper compares test results when the implicit restrictions associated with the data are removed. Employing a single data set we compare the results for four published tests. Even with this uniform data set, two approaches reject the theory while two do not.     

境外投资财税激励政策的国际比较及借鉴

基于境外投资对于投资国在产业升级、对外贸易、资源利用等诸多方面所产生的积极效应,众多发达国家如美国、德国、法国及一些新兴发展中国家都纷纷制定了一系列激励对外投资的财税政策,对其境外投资起到了一定的推动作用,这对正在大力推行和实施"走出去"战略的我国有着明显的借鉴意义.     

农村政策性金融与财政支农关系

政策性金融的产生及其作用的发挥,实际上就是财政职能不断强化的一个产物,改革开放中后期以来,我国农村政策性金融体系的功能趋于弱化,其原因在于:财政实力被过多地削弱,公共产品资源配置不够合理,过分倚重商业性金融的支农效应而弱化了财政对农村政策性金融的支持。为此,应当健全财政对农村政策性金融持续投入机制与补偿机制,协调好财政政策与货币政策的关系,财政还应承担起对政策性金融业务监督管理的责任。     

财税政策对企业自主创新的支持效应分析

多样化的支持企业自主创新的财税政策工具在实践中的作用有效性研究可以为政策的优化提供参考。文章以福建省若干企业的调查数据为基础,对当前福建省支持企业自主创新的主要财税政策在实践中的作用有效性进行实证分析,得出如下结论：政府的财税支持政策对企业的自主创新活动产生了正向的激励效应;企业对财政激励政策支持其自主创新的有效性评价高于税收优惠政策;支持企业自主创新的所得税相关优惠政策在实践中应用最广;企业对间接税收优惠政策支持效应的评价大于直接优惠政策;行业特点影响着不同财税支持政策的作用效果;企业对享受政策带来效益与成本的比较、政府部门服务质量、企业运用政策的能力是影响企业申请和享受财税支持政策主动性意愿的关键因素。提高企业自主创新财税支持政策的作用有效性需要进一步优化政策设计、营造宽松公平的支持企业创新的环境、增强企业运用财税政策的能力。     

我国财政货币政策作用关系实证研究--基于VAR模型的检验分析

文章通过构建一个真实GDP增长率、财政赤字占GDP比重、货币供给M2增长率、零售物价指数变化率等4个变量的VAR模型,对我国财政政策与货币政策相互作用的关系及其动态性进行了实证分析,通过模型设定、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数分析和预测方差分解,发现在我国不存在简单的财政货币政策的互补或替代关系,而是存在一种非对称性的关系,即扩张的货币政策伴随着收缩或稳健的财政政策,而扩张的财政政策导致被动扩张的货币政策,表现形式取决于具体宏观经济环境和经济冲击形式。同时,文章也得到其他一些结论,并认为,要增强政策的效率,必须强化央行的独立性,在现阶段需要严格控制赤字财政政策,以减少其对经济增长和经济波动的影响。     

促进我国农村生物质能源发展的财税政策研究

发展农村生物质能源是社会主义新农村建设的重要举措,有助于缓解能源危机、改善环境,有利于扩大农村就业、增加农民收入,但目前我国农村生物质能源的发展受制于信息与认知不足、经济效益不高、技术水平有限等因素。由于农村生物质能源产业的发展具有的外部性、不确定性等因素,财税政策应该发挥主要的作用。文章总结了国外发展能源产业的经验与启示,提出了促进我国农村生物质能源发展的财税政策。这些政策包括发挥政府采购的作用、加大各级政府预算投入的力度、具体的税收优惠政策及财政与政策性金融的配合。     

On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

日本政府财政支出的经济增长效应及启示

政府财政支出与经济增长存在一定的相关关系,但孰为因果莫衷一是。通过对1956-2008年日本政府财政支出与经济增长的协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,发现日本政府财政投资性支出与财政消费性支出均与经济增长长期内存在稳定的正向协整关系及单向因果关系,经济增长是财政支出增长的格兰杰因,而财政支出无论是投资性还是消费性支出都不是经济增长的格兰杰因。从这一结论出发,我国应吸取日本的经验教训,在实施积极的财政政策时,要控制规模、优化结构、确保质量、提高效益。     

Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?

The second arrow of Abenomics is flexible fiscal policy. However, it does not mean just fiscal stimulus as the Abe administration decided on the fiscal consolidation target of achieving a primary surplus by fiscal year 2020. Improving the primary balance implies making government debt more sustainable. Although the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8% in April 2014, the Abe administration has decided twice to postpone increasing the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. In addition, a fiscal stimulus package was implemented. We use a Fiscal Stance Index to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of fiscal sustainability and a Markov switching model to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of the fiscal theory of the price level, and find that the Abe's fiscal stance is not Ricardian.