Paper credit and the multi-personae Mr. Henry Thornton

The bicentenary celebration of the publication of Henry Thornton's An Enquiry into the Nature and Effects of the Paper Credit of Great Britain (1802) presents an appropriate time for a reconsideration of this great work on monetary economics. This paper highlights Thornton's criticisms of Adam Smith along with the importance that Thornton attached to the lender of last resort role of the Bank of England. It suggests that there are three Mr. Thorntons who appear in Paper Credit. The first is the concerned anti-inflationist of the first section. The second is the worried anti-inflationist of the second section of the book. Besides these, there may be a third Mr. Thornton. This persona was that of the practical banker who understood the new emerging financial architecture that had resulted in paper credit supplanting metallic money. Thornton understood this new transformation of the monetary system. It is conjectured that the existence of the usury laws, inter alia, may have prevented Thornton from fully investigating the possibility of the UK moving to a specie-less system.     

The Economic Writings of William Thomas Thornton: A review article

The Economic Writings of William Thomas Thornton makes available numerous out-of-print books and articles by an important economist whose work has, until recently, been neglected by historians of economic thought. The collection, which is by no means complete, helps cement Thornton's reputation and restores his rightful place in the history of economics. This article discusses the collection's main strengths and weaknesses, and draws particular attention to the contemporary relevance of Thornton's work in the light of recent controversies surrounding his place in the annals of economic science, and to certain aspects of his successful East India Company career.     

One step ahead: Thornton versus Longe

This Paper addresses the intriguing issue of whether William Thomas Thornton plagiarized Francis Longe's (1866) pamphlet denouncing the classical wage fund doctrine. In doing so, the paper comprehensively reviews all of the corroborative evidence surrounding the plagiarism allegation laid against Thornton, drawing particular attention to a little known letter to The Times written by Thornton, in an effort to clear his good name of any impropriety. It is the conclusion of this paper that Thornton has no case to answer; the evidence not only from Thornton's own early work on wages and trade unions, together with additional corroborative evidence suggests that far from having plagiarized Longe's (1866) work, Thornton apticipated many of his ideas.     

The Bank of England and Parliament were monetarily adroit during the Napoleonic Wars

Abstract

With the connivance of Parliament, was the Bank of England's over issue of banknotes inflationary? The inflation stemmed from military subsidy and Peninsula campaign payments, as well as food imports, far in excess of Britain's export earnings to cover these capital transfers (particularly when crimped by the Continental Blockade), and not merely from domestic credit over issue. Neither domestic money creation nor the fiscal theory of the price level best explains the imbalance in Britain's international accounts during the Napoleonic Wars. This deficit stemmed from domestic production shortfalls in essentials (above all food production) and contractual obligations such as military spending/subsidies relative to the pound's international purchasing power which emanated from the ability of Britain to sell exports and replace imports with domestic output (raise food production internally). These types of highly inelastic transactions tended to operate independently of domestic money creation, fiscal policy (taxes) or price developments (inflation). This article tracks England's bullion debate, which concerned whether gold prices rose (and hence sterling's exchange rate fell) because military capital transfers overwhelmed the balance of payments, or because the Bank of England over issued paper money after the gold cover was removed in 1797. The issues herein are not antiquated because the primary issues in monetary debates for two centuries have concerned the cause of inflation and deflation, and whether the domestic money supply or the balance of payments is responsible. Determining actual causation is critical for the proper solution: monetary deflation, or domestic and international restructuring of trade and investment.     

On the response to the financial crisis of 1914: The Bank of England's discount policy

This work investigates the Bank of England's policy response to the London Financial Crisis of 1914, triggered by the outbreak of the Great War. By using daily data on discount operations drawn from the Bank of England's historical archive, we empirically test whether the Central Bank played the role of lender of last resort or it restricted credit. Our results suggest that, during 1914, the Bank of England did not change its policy in terms of bills’ discounting. Even though the discounter identity might have been a determinant of Bank's lending decisions (as in Flandreau and Ugolini, 2011 and 2013; Anson et al., 2019a), our evidence suggests that, throughout 1914, the Bank of England operated as a lender of last resort according to the Bagehot rules.     

Some unpublished correspondence of William Thomas Thornton, 1866-1872

This collection of letters conveniently assembles all of the unpublished correspondence of W. T. Thornton to J. S. Mill and J. E. Cairnes. Although this cache of letters is by no means large, it is nonetheless significant. First, Thornton's letters to Mill and Cairnes provide material for a reassessment of his relationship with both men. Second, it is apparent from these letters that Thornton's intellectual preoccupations ranged widely. Hence, they constitute the best supplement presently available to Thornton's published writings on political economy and philosophy. Third, the letters are an important ‘literary’ source in recovering aspects of Thornton's illustrious company career at East India House (1836–1880). In this context, they form an invaluable companion to his published writings on India. They may even afford some clues about the role he played in the formation of policy in India in the period after the 1857 mutiny. In short, they cast important light on the social, moral and intellectual milieu in which he lived and worked.     

Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?

This paper examines whether the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have provided markets with additional information about the future course of monetary policy. The paper conducts an econometric approach based on an Ordered Probit model explaining future policy rate changes (sample 1998 to 2014), and the Vuong test for model selection, which helps to identify changes in the market assessment around the release of MPC minutes. Our results suggest that the Bank of England's published minutes of the MPC's deliberations have indeed helped markets in forming their expectations on future monetary policy decisions.     

Bank liquidity risk: From John Law (1705) to Walter Bagehot (1873)

Abstract

By granting credit and issuing money, banks take a liquidity risk - that is, the risk of being unable to reimburse its notes in coins. Five different explanations of a bank liquidity crisis have been provided by different authors, since John Law and up to Walter Bagehot. First, according to Law (1703) and Steuart ([1767] [1998]), the distinction between money of account (the pound sterling) and money of payment (the guinea) may induce a bank run. Second, according to Cantillon (1730), Hume ([1752 Goschen, G. J., 1861. The Theory of the Foreign Exchanges. London; Effingham Wilson, Royal, 1861. French edition, Théorie des changes étrangers, Librairie Guillaumin et C^ie Paris, 1892. 1861. [Google Scholar]] 1972), Ricardo (1810-1823) and the Currency School (1837-1858), the bank reserve becomes insufficient as a consequence of a diminishing value of money allied with over issues. Third, according to Thornton ([1802 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]] 1939, 1991 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]) and the Banking School (1840-1857), it can occur as a consequence of a falling exchange rate that is not linked with over issues. Fourth, according to Smith (1776) and the Banking School, discounting of fictitious bills, by decreasing the shareholders' funds, leads to bank illiquidity. Lastly, according to Thornton ([1802 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]] 1939, 1991 Skaggs, N. T., 2010b. "For the love of truth: Henry Thornton's stance in the bullion committee debates. 2010 meeting of the History of Economics Society, Syracuse". 2010b. [Google Scholar]) and Bagehot (1873), the liquidity crisis is a consequence of bank panics: a "flight" to money for Thornton, a "flight" to credit for Bagehot. The analysis of these five different explanations sheds new light on classical monetary controversies.     

Monetary policy on interest rates: a retrospective analysis since Thornton

Abstract

In response to the affirmation by certain authors and critics of a recent return to an interest-rate policy that, in their opinion, resembles a throwback to the nineteenth century theory of monetary policy on interest rates, I pose the question of the difficulties of interest-rate policy in a retrospective analysis beginning with the current that founded the short-term interest rate policy within classical analysis and by focusing my discussion on several key authors (Thornton, Banking School, Bagehot, Wicksell, Keynes, contemporary authors such as Woodford). To this end, I study the importance that the interbank money market plays for these authors, which determines the target rate for the central bank.     

Formation of the non‐state sector and privatisation in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

In this paper, we take a detailed look at one Polish bank's experiences with financial sector reforms focusing on a bank-led enterprise-restructuring plan that linked directly bank privatization and recapitalization to bad-debt workouts. Based on personal interviews and original statistical data, we evaluate the performance of Bank Depozytowo-Kredytowy (BDK) in promoting financial and operational restructuring of its clients. We found that BDK continued to provide soft lending to keep four old military‐industrial companies afloat and actually increased its exposure to these companies during the program. The five success stories among BDK's clients were companies that had external agents other than the bank promoting and monitoring their operational restructuring. From our case study of BDK, we conclude that, while banks may play a role in financial restructuring of their clients, their ability to affect operational restructuring is quite limited. Moreover, stateowned banks are particularly vulnerable to incentive problems when dealing with large state-owned enterprises that may be too big or too political to fail.     

The political economy of delayed reform

Abstract

The role of economic policy in Finland's depression of the 1990s is analyzed with a simple model of an open economy, and the conditions for a successful financial reform derived: Let the system adjust after the removal of interest rate ceilings, and the domestic interest rate then be aligned with foreign rates before liberalizing international capital flows. In Finland, the financial system was liberalized simultaneously with international capital movements, with the domestic shadow interest rate initially considerably higher than the international market rates. A capital inflow the size of the monetary base followed, leading to the ‘crazy years’ of 1987–89. With a large current account deficit, the Bank of Finland tightened money sharply, causing a banking crisis practically wiping out the savings bank sector. The GDP declined by 13%. Several lesser policy measures aggravated the crisis.     

R.G. Hawtrey on the national and international lender of last resort

Abstract

This paper traces R.G. Hawtrey's main contributions to the theory of the lender of last resort (LLR), both national and international (ILLR). This theory is a continuation of one of the traditions of the classical period, started by Henry Thornton, which differs in important points from that of Walter Bagehot. In their treatment of the classical concepts the authors partly depart from the interpretation of Thomas M. Humphrey, who considers that Thornton and Bagehot have basically the same approach about LLR. Hawtrey renewed Thonton's views and extended the concepts to new problems, including the ILLR. Hawtrey built a model of LLR in a dynamic macroeconomic model that includes the Cambridge market for cash balance and introduces the bases of a theory of ILLR, describing the sequence of twin crisis, exchange and banking crisis, thus explaining the difficulties for an ILLR to act on the currency market without taking the risks involved, in a situation completely different to the one faced on the money market by the national LLR.     

A Theory of Conflicts of Interest in Banking Relationships

Abstract

This paper highlights a dark side of banking relationships by elucidating the conditions under which a pre-existing relationship between a lending bank and a borrower can be detrimental to positive valuation effects of loan announcements. The effect of a pre-existing relationship is more likely to be negative when the pre-existing loans are large and firms' screening costs are low. A theoretical model shows that loan announcement's positive effect on borrowers' value due to the standard information advantage can be more than offset by the bank's conflict of interest when the bank's asset quality reputation is poor, i.e. when the probability of the bank holding a bad loan is large.     

Modelling Anti-inflationary Monetary Targeting in Romania

This paper characterises Romania's experience with anti-inflationary monetary targeting over the period 1999–2005 prior to the country's switch to inflation targeting. We uncover the National Bank of Romania's preferences, conditional on an estimated macro-model. We find that Romania's monetary targeting regime can be characterised by a concern for price stability and an additional role for smoothing of the central bank's instrument (base money growth). Exchange rate variability and output gap stability appear not to significantly enter the National Bank of Romania's objective function.     

The interdependence between economic analysis and methodology in the work of Joseph A. Schumpeter ∗

Abstract

This paper offers an overview of Schumpeter's entire economic work from a methodological perspective. Only from this ‘birds-eye’ view do all the well-known parts of his work become part of a mosaic which – from a distance – forms a picture of logical succession: It tells the story of an intensive search for an appropriate analytical understanding of the phenomenon of economic change. As a result, this paper argues that, from a methodological perspective, Schumpeter's work appears to be anything but a monolithic unit.     

Convex Time Budgets and Individual Discount Rates in the Long Run

The purpose of this study is to use experimental data to estimate individual discount rates and test for hyperbolic discounting over a long time horizon. To do this, we employ the convex time budget experimental approach with cash payments over a 20 year time horizon. To date, there are few experimental studies that explore discount rates beyond a 1 year time horizon. Previous experimental studies that focus on short time horizons find high discount rates, which may not be applicable to decisions that affect outcomes in the distant future. Our findings are quite similar to the average rate of 4.9% found by Grijalva et al. (Environ Resour Econ 59:39–63, 2014), who similarly use a 20 year time horizon, but use the multiple price list elicitation method along with payment via government savings bonds. We find annual discounts rates in the range of 1.9–5.5%, depending on the specific model used. We also find evidence for declining discount rates, and that this hyperbolic pattern of behavior is related to the confidence subjects have in receiving distant-future payments.     

Classical and Neoclassical harmonies and dissonances

Abstract

Proofs are given that only singularly can real 1750 – 2007 competitive price ratios be ‘natural', in the sense of being invariant under changes in demand tastes. Proofs are given that both 1750 – 1870 discrete technologies or 1890 – 2007 continuum technologies, with convexity properties sufficient for arbitrage-proof supply-demand equilibria, will be ‘intertemporally Pareto optimal', immune to leaving any deadweight (inefficient) losses on the table. Sraffa (1960), ignoring the vast post-1945 linear and non-linear programming mathematical literature of Danzig, Kuhn-Tucker-Bellman, von Neumann, Ramsey literature does not quite arrive at attainable distribution solutions. Where it tolerates increasing or decreasing returns to scale, there can be no competitive equilibria. When its matrix equations do obey first-degree-homogeneous functions, the book's stress on Basics or non-Basics is an irrelevancy leading to bizarre novel interpretations of Ricardo.

Old age overtakes us all. Alas, Sraffs's proposed critique of twentieth century political economy we will never be able to know.     

Implied discount rate and payback threshold of energy efficiency investment in the industrial sector

The industrial sector is responsible for about a third of the energy usage in the United States, and there is significant energy saving potential from the industrial sector. However, the phenomenon of “energy efficiency gap” – the scenario in which cost-effective energy efficient technologies enjoy only limited market success – appears frequently in the industrial sector. This article tries to explain this efficiency gap in the industrial sector by empirically estimating the implied discount rates and payback thresholds industrial firms use to evaluate their energy efficiency investments. Using the Industrial Assessment Centers (IAC) database from 2002 to 2011, with more than 30 000 energy efficiency recommendations, this article builds structural models of firms’ evaluation of an energy efficiency project. The model results show that the implied discount rates of medium to small industrial firms range from 40 to 45%, and the average payback threshold is about 9 months.     

Schumpeter on money,banking and finance: an institutionalist perspective

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to clarify on the evidence of primary material how Keynes transformed his theory from the Tract to the Treatise. Keynes went on working along the lines of the Tract theory until around April 1926, subsequently adopting the Transaction Approach up until September 1927. The paper stresses the importance of the three TOC between September 1927 and September 1928 as pointing the way towards the Treatise's fundamental equations – the breakthrough opening the way to the Treatise. The second fundamental equation, the TM supply function and the natural rate of interest had made their appearance by April 1930.     

The Concept of Trust and the Political Economy of John Maynard Keynes,Illustrated Using Central Bank Forward Guidance and the Democratic Dilemma in Europe

Trust is an issue to which Keynesians and post-Keynesians have paid relatively little attention. However, properly understood it is an aspect of almost all activity, including key elements of socio-economic reality. Without trust, market exchange is at the very least problematic, if not impossible. Moreover, trust is intrinsic to a variety of issues with which Keynes, and subsequent Keynesianism have been concerned. In this paper we provide a general social theory conceptualisation of trust and then set out some of the areas where this concept resonates with the work of Keynes in terms of the role of conventions. Conventions quintessentially involve trust and that trust can be unstable, can be withdrawn and can require rebuilding. We illustrate this with reference to central bank policy and the Bank of England's introduction of Forward Guidance. Exploring the problem of trust in the context of banking also highlights a challenge for the continued relevance of Keynes' work. We now live in a neoliberal world and this provides a quite different context for state intervention than was previously the case. Keynes' work is now an argument for the alternative, and as such it requires more than a technical economic argument, it must also address the problem of trust in state policy-makers. We briefly illustrate the challenge this poses with reference to Europe.