Bond yield uncertainty and the demand for money : A comment

The purpose of this paper is to reconsider the work recently reported by Amihud that the demand for money is an increasing function of the risk of holding bonds. Our evidence from testing annual and quarterly Cambridge k and demand-for-money equations cannot confirm the positive and significant bond-yield uncertainty coefficient reported by Amihud in a semi-annual Cambridge k equation.     

R.G. Hawtrey on the national and international lender of last resort

Abstract

This paper traces R.G. Hawtrey's main contributions to the theory of the lender of last resort (LLR), both national and international (ILLR). This theory is a continuation of one of the traditions of the classical period, started by Henry Thornton, which differs in important points from that of Walter Bagehot. In their treatment of the classical concepts the authors partly depart from the interpretation of Thomas M. Humphrey, who considers that Thornton and Bagehot have basically the same approach about LLR. Hawtrey renewed Thonton's views and extended the concepts to new problems, including the ILLR. Hawtrey built a model of LLR in a dynamic macroeconomic model that includes the Cambridge market for cash balance and introduces the bases of a theory of ILLR, describing the sequence of twin crisis, exchange and banking crisis, thus explaining the difficulties for an ILLR to act on the currency market without taking the risks involved, in a situation completely different to the one faced on the money market by the national LLR.     

The Role of credit in a Keynesian monetary economy

Abstract

This paper describes the features of a monetary economy on the basis of Keynes's distinction between a real exchange economy and a monetary economy. In The General Theory, Keynes identifies the reasons for the non-neutrality of money by highlighting the store of wealth function of money; this approach has been adopted by most Keynesian economists. The aim of this paper is to show that such an approach only partially explains the reasons for money non-neutrality and that important elements which demonstrate the relevance of monetary variables emerge when the means of payment function of money is considered. Investigating the role of this function requires that we deal explicitly with how spending decisions are financed. The paper argues that the market for credit must be considered separately from the market for money, and that a viable credit theory can be built from Keynes's post-General Theory writings.     

The financial system and the Pasinetti theorem

Palley (Inside debt, aggregate demand, and the Cambridge theoryof distribution, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 20, no.4, 465–74, 1996; Financial institutions and the Cambridgetheory of distribution, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol.26, no. 2, 275–7, 2002) considers the Pasinetti theoremin the context of the credit money system where banks generatedebts endogenously, and claims that the theorem ceases to holdin such a system, being valid only in the loanable funds system.This paper traces the root of Palley's claim to his assumptionregarding the ownership of banks, sets out an alternative (morerealistic) ownership arrangement, and thereby restores the Pasinettitheorem unscathed in the credit money system (at least in thekind Palley must have considered). The paper, however, uncoversthe case where the theorem indeed collapses and discusses thereason for it: the hoarding of a non-interest-bearing asset.     

Neutrality and Non‐Neutrality of Money In A Classical‐Type Model

Abstract. This paper modifies the simple classical model by introducing capacity utilization that varies across the course of the business cycle. By making the capacity usage a choice variable that turns out to be sensitive to changes in the price level, we show that the classical model loses its fundamental feature, namely the neutrality of money. In our generalized framework, a rise in money supply improves upon all the real variables if the economy suffers from excess capacity, as in recessions and depressions. We demonstrate that our model describes the various economic cross‐currents during the Great Depression extremely well. Thus, monetary policy emerges with an activist role even in a generally classical setting.     

Circular reasoning. Forbonnais and the intricate history of circular flow analysis in the 1750s

Abstract

Circular flow analysis in mid-18th century France is normally associated with the writings of François Quesnay. From the early 1750?s, however, François Véron de Forbonnais developed a distinct theory of circulation in then well-known contributions to the Encyclopédie and his Elémens du commerce of 1754. This article argues that like Quesnay, Forbonnais was in part inspired by Cantillon’s Essay on the Nature of Trade in General. But while Quesnay gave original developments to the real aspects of Cantillon’’s analysis of circulation, Forbonnais focussed on developing monetary aspects, including arguments for the ‘non-neutrality’ of money and an original theory of the money interest rate.     

Discounting Nordhaus

This paper evaluates Nordhaus's neoclassical complaints about the Stern Review from the vantage point of classical growth theory. Nordhaus criticizes the Stern Review because it uses a discount rate that is well below the market rate of return on capital. From the perspective of classical growth theory, Nordhaus's belief in choosing preference parameters for the social planner based on observed market rates of return is equivalent to assigning the preferences of the capitalist agents to the social planner. This equivalence is an implication of the Cambridge Theorem, which interprets the Ramsey equation as the saving function of the capitalist agents.     

From profit margins to income distribution: Joan Robinson's odyssey from marginal productivity theory

The point of departure for this paper is a 1941 Note on profit margins co-authored by Joan Robinson and Nicholas Kaldor that remained unpublished until 2000. Robinson's reviews of Henry Clay's The Problem of Industrial Relationships, Bresciani Turroni's The Economics of Inflation, and Roy Harrod's Towards a Dynamic Economics, along with her 1965 Cambridge Inaugural Lecture, may be interpreted as analogous documents that develop her critique of neoclassical wage theory and identify the money wage as the economy's ‘key’ price. These publications were critical steps toward the wage mark-up hypothesis and Post-Keynesian support of incomes policy to contain inflation. Robinson's Harrod review anticipated her later ideas about economic growth. With Kalecki's notion of ‘the degree of monopoly’ and her own concept of neo-mercantilism (from the Inaugural Lecture), these themes are nascent in the Robinson–Kaldor Note on profit margins.     

University of Laneaster

L. J. White , The Automobile Industry since 1945, Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, C. K. Rowley , Steel and Public Policy. London: McGraw-Hill, 1971 J. B. Heath (ed.), Department of Trade and Industry, International Conference on monopolies, mergers and restrictive practices, Papers and reports, Cambridge. 1969. London: C. F. Pratten , Economies of Scale in Manufacturing Industry. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1971 A. Singh . Takeovers, their relevance to the stock market and the theory of the firm. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1971 D. Coombes , State Enterprise. Business or Politics? London: Allen & Unwin, 1971     

Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia

Inflation, defined as a sustained increase in the price level, is considered a monetary phenomenon, as it can be explained within the framework of money‐demand and money‐supply relationships. In the extant literature, money growth is shown to remain causally related to inflation across countries and over time, irrespective of the exchange rate regime and stability of the money‐demand function. Nevertheless, emerging literature suggests a diminishing role of money in the conduct of monetary policy for price stability, especially under inflation targeting. Monetary policy in Australia under inflation targeting since 1993 is an example of policy that denies a relationship between money growth and inflation. The proposition that money does not matter insofar as inflation is concerned seems odd in both theory and the best‐practice monetary policy for price stability. This paper uses annual data for the period 1970–2017 and quarterly data for the period 1970Q1–2015Q1. It deploys both the Johansen cointegration approach and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to investigate for Australia whether money, real output, prices and the exchange rate (non‐stationary variables) maintain the long‐run price‐level relationship that the classical monetary theory suggests in the presence of such stationary variables as the domestic and foreign interest rates. As expected, the empirical findings for Australia are consistent with the classical long‐run price‐level relationship between money, real output, prices and the exchange rate. The error‐correction model of inflation confirms the presence of a cointegral relationship among these variables; it also provides strong evidence of a short‐run causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation. On the basis of a priori theoretical predictions and empirical findings, the paper draws the conclusion that the monetary aggregate and its growth rate matter insofar as inflation is concerned, irrespective of the strategy of monetary policy for price stability.     

Parametric external economies and the Cambridge controversy on returns

Abstract

When French economists read The Purchasing Power of Money, they were primarily interested in the equation of exchange and the reformulation that Fisher proposed regarding the quantity theory of money. This reading led them to ponder the meaning that should be given to this theory and to study its empirical significance. Some of them, namely Rueff and Divisia, went further still and considered Fisher's work as a starting point for their own analyses, which were related in particular to the monetary index, the integration of money into general equilibrium theory and the analysis of monetary phenomena in an open economy.     

Monetary policy on interest rates: a retrospective analysis since Thornton

Abstract

In response to the affirmation by certain authors and critics of a recent return to an interest-rate policy that, in their opinion, resembles a throwback to the nineteenth century theory of monetary policy on interest rates, I pose the question of the difficulties of interest-rate policy in a retrospective analysis beginning with the current that founded the short-term interest rate policy within classical analysis and by focusing my discussion on several key authors (Thornton, Banking School, Bagehot, Wicksell, Keynes, contemporary authors such as Woodford). To this end, I study the importance that the interbank money market plays for these authors, which determines the target rate for the central bank.     

Money,exchange and division of labour in Rousseau's economic philosophy

Abstract

This paper examines the arguments advanced by Rousseau to explain his rejection of monetary exchange. First we show that the rejection of money as mean of exchange expresses a dismissal of any form of exchange, motivated by a need for independence. In Julie, the community of Clarens exemplifies an autarchic, paternalistic economy that is at once unequal and deceptive. To understand why Rousseau chose such a downbeat solution to the problems arising from the organisation of the division of labour, we make a parallel between the economic and amatory themes, showing in each case the dependence upon others produced by the development of amour-propre.     

How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?

The role of money in the design and conduct of monetary policy has reemerged as an important issue in both advanced and developing economies, especially since the 2007 global financial crisis. A growing body of recent literature suggests that the causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation remains intact across countries and over time and that this relation is not conditional on the stability of the money‐demand function or whether money is endogenous or exogenous. Moreover, critical for a rule‐based monetary policy is the presence of a long‐run stable money‐demand function, rather than a short‐run money‐demand model that may exhibit instability for many reasons, including problems with estimating a money‐demand model with high‐frequency data. Provided that a stable money‐demand function exists, it could be useful to establish long‐run equilibrium relations among money, output, prices, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. Within this analytical framework, this paper addresses the question of whether money has any role in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. The conventional wisdom is that the money‐demand function in Australia has been unstable since the mid‐1980s due to financial deregulation and reforms; this led to a change in the strategy of monetary policy for price stability in the form of inflation targeting that ignores money insofar as inflation and its control are concerned. This paper reports empirical findings for Australia, obtained from a longer quarterly data series over the period 1960Q1–2015Q1, which suggest that instability in the narrow‐money‐demand function in Australia was primarily due to the exclusion of variables which have become important in the deregulated environment since the 1980s. These findings are confirmed by an expanded form of the narrow‐money‐demand function that was found stable over the past two decades, although it experienced multiple structural breaks over the study period. The paper draws the conclusion that abandoning the monetary aggregate as an instrument of monetary policy in Australia, under a rule‐based monetary policy such as inflation targeting, cannot be justified by instability in the money‐demand function or even by lack of a causal link between money supply growth and inflation.     

From bounties on exportation to the natural and market price of labour: Smith versus Ricardo

Abstract

The scope of this article is to examine the foundations of Smith's arguments and of Ricardo's criticisms on the issue of bounties on exportation. These criticisms are examined in the light of the counter-criticisms provided by a fictitious subject called Smith redivivus. These counter-criticisms highlight Ricardo's neglect of the differences between vérité de raison and vérité de fait and between the points of view of an individual and of society behind Smith's treatment of money vs. real, temporary vs. permanent and natural vs. market price of labour as labour and of commodities as products of labour.     

A note on asymmetric and mixed strategy equilibria in the search-theoretic model of fiat money

Summary. The simple search-theoretic model of fiat money has three symmetric Nash equilibria: all agents accept money with probability 1; all agents accept money with probability 0; and all agents accept money with probability y in (0,1). Here I construct an asymmetric pure strategy equilibrium, payoff-equivalent to the symmetric mixed strategy equilibrium, where a fraction N in (0,1) of agents always accept money and 1-N never accept money. Counter to what has been conjectured previously, I find N > y. I also introduce evolutionary dynamics, and show that the economy converges to monetary exchange iff the initial proportion of agents accepting money exceeds N. Received: September 10, 1997; revised version: April 24, 1998     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article: The Cambridge Revolution: Success or Failure?: A Critical Analysis of Cambridge Theories of Value and Distribution. By M. Blaug. Intergovernmental Relations in Australia.Edited by R. L. Mathews. Poverty, Inequality and Class Structure. Edited by D. Wedderburn. British Immigrants and Australia: A Psycho-social Inquiry. By A. Richardson. The Australian Capital Market. Edited by R. R. Hirst and R. H. Wallace. Australian Urban and Regional Development. By F. J. B. Stilwell. The Image of Australia. By C. D. W. Goodwin.     

Shadow Money in the 19th Century: Is Marx Relevant for Understanding Contemporary Shadow Money?

ABSTRACT

The growth of shadow money, since the 1980s, has implications for both central bank policy and the theorization of money. However, modern shadow money has a historical analogue in the private bill market of 19th century England This article explores the relevance of Marx’s logical and historical analysis of the evolution of the forms and functions of money in capitalist economies, and his concrete analysis of the bill market in order to understand shadow money today.