基于经济增长动力的就业政策分析

经济增长是解决就业问题最基础的途径,而经济增长动力的影响更为明显.在新的经济增长周期中,经济增长的动力主要体现为工业结构,特别是重化工业结构的优化升级,以及相应的居民消费结构演进和城市化中投资和需求拉动.因此在就业政策设计中,着力点应当在资本和劳动密集型产业的平衡发展,发展生产性服务业;通过职业教育和培训提高劳动者素质,消除知识贫困.     

未来十五年北京市人口发展中面对的问题

“八五”期间,北京市认真贯彻执行中央关于严格控制人口增长的各项方针政策,计划生育工作特别是在农村地区取得了显著成绩。自然增长逐年下降、计划生育率不断提高、流动人口管理取得了初步成效。但是,据调查研究及预测分析,北京市至2010年,在人口发展中将存在以下几个需认真对待的主要问题。     

沿海外向型经济发展与投资战略

沿海外向型经济发展战略首先需要建立一个优化的产业结构,而投资在各产业部门的分布是改变已有产业结构的直接原因。在投资结构方面,作者指出了对沿海外向型经济发展具有重要意义的几个领域的投资:①劳动密集型产业投资。从比较利益理论、资源禀赋说与我国的现实的经济、资源状况出发,作者分析了现阶段对劳动密集型产业投资的的必要性,结合研究日本、台湾、南朝鲜在经济起飞时期的劳动密集型产业的投资经验,认为劳动密集型产业在我国沿海地区外向型经济发展中具有重要地位,在近期内是一条最为现实的选择;     

中国的经济结构与外部经济失衡

自20世纪90年代中期以来,中国经济逐渐表现出外部失衡的趋势,而这种势头也一直持续了20多年.中国一直坚持发展的劳动密集型产业由于其很大一部分出口加工型的,同时造成国内消费和投资的失调,导致了中国经济的外部失衡.这些年的积累使得中国经济外部的环境正逐渐恶化,劳动密集型产业也面临着更多的挑战,可以说中国经济结构的转变已迫在眉睫.本文试着从中国的经济结构(着力发展劳动密集型产业)的角度来分析经济的外部失衡.     

我国财政支出结构与经济增长的关系分析

财政支出结构对经济增长有着重要影响,财政支出结构的不同导致了财政支出对经济增长的促进作用也不一样。本文从结构角度研究我国财政支出与经济增长的相关关系,有利于我们全面认识各项财政支出对经济增长的贡献,有利于提高各项财政支出的效益、优化财政支出结构,使财政资源达到合理的配置。     

对于河北省文化创意产业发展的若干思考

文化创意产业对推动经济增长、提高人民生活质量和增加就业的作用日渐显现.发展和振兴文化创意产业,不仅有利于河北省经济增长方式的转变,而且有利于提高河北省文化资源的利用效率,带动特色文化产品获得可持续发展.本文立足河北省发展实际需求,提出了推动河北省文化创意产业发展的相关对策.     

金融抑制对产出结构高级化影响的实证分析

现代经济增长是一种以产业结构变动为特征的经济增长模式,产业结构的演进一般遵循主导产业从低加工度、低附加值、低技术含量的劳动密集型产业逐步向高加工度、高附加值、高技术含量的资金与知识密集型产业不断升级更迭的规律.就其实质而言,产业间优势地位的变动更替体现了资源配置格局的变化,产业结构的高级化则反映了资源从效益相对低的部门或状态向较高部门或状态转移的结果.动态地看,资金的运用结构决定了产出结构的变化;而某一时刻的产出结构反映的是资金的分布状态.本文从资金形成机制、资金导向机制和信用催化机制三个维度分析了金融抑制对我国产出结构高级化金融机制的影响.     

河南省产业发展战略的选择

产业结构是演变是一个渐进的过程。河南省现阶段正处于从农业经济到工业经济的转变过程中。因此，河南省的产业发展战略应是劳动密集型产业和高新技术产业并重，近期应以发展劳动密集型产业为主。     

是“黄花落日”，还是“春意盎然”？——我国劳动密集型出口企业生存发展调研

温家宝：尽快恢复利于劳动密集型产业和出口政策 2009年3月9日,温家宝总理在浙江“两会”代表团和代表们纵谈企业发展时表示：“我们各个部门在清理,凡是有利于劳动密集型产业发展的政策和有利于出口产业的政策,我们都要尽快地恢复,不利于的。我们要尽快地取消。”     

金融产业集聚与区域经济增长——以上海市黄浦区为例

金融产业集聚已经成为推动区域经济增长的重要因素。金融产业集聚将产生外部规模经济效应、辐射效应、金融外溢效应等,并提高区域内金融资源的利用效率,不仅促进了金融产业的发展,而且有利于法律、咨询等服务业的发展,带动了整个地区经济的增长。本文以上海市黄浦区为例,分析了金融集聚对区域经济增长影响的作用途径。分析表明,金融产业集聚产生的外部规模经济效应、辐射效应、金融外溢效应等对区域经济增长作用明显。     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note: