拉丁美洲：一个富有活力的市场

在经过“失去的1980年代”、“好不到哪儿去的1990年代”后，近几年，拉丁美洲进入了40多年来最好的发展阶段，拉美的经济增长强劲，通货膨胀得到控制，外汇储备稳定增长。根据联合国拉美经委会统计数据显示，2003-2006年，拉美的GDP共增长了17．6％，平均每年增长4．3％。早在20世纪70年代，中国就已经与很多拉美国家建立、巩固和发展了外交关系。     

Purchasing power parity in Latin America: A co-integration analysis

Zusammenfassung Kaufkraftparit?t in Lateinamerika. Eine Kointegrationsanalyse.- Die jüngsten Entwicklungen der ?konometrischen Analyse und Zeitreihentechniken liefern neue Interpretationen vieler ?konomischer Theorien einschlie?lich einer der ?ltesten Doktrinen - der Kaufkraftparit?t. Der Verfasser testet, ob die Kaufkraftparit?t zwischen neun lateinamerikanischen L?ndern und den USA besteht, indem er einige der neuen Techniken einsetzt. Tests auf Nicht-Station?rit?t und Kointegration werden auf den nominalen Wechselkurs sowie das inl?ndische und das ausl?ndische (US-amerikanische) Preisniveau angewendet. Die Ergebnisse sprechen für die Gültigkeit der Kaufkraftparit?t zwischen den untersuchten L?ndern und den USA.

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Résumé La parité du pouvoir d’achat en Amérique latine. Une analyse de co-intégration. - Les développements récents aux techniques de l’économétrie et des séries temporelles approvisionnent des interprétations nouvelles à beaucoup de théories et, par cela, aussi à l’hypothèse de pouvoir d’achat (Ppa). Dans cette étude l’auteur examine les Ppa de neuf pays en Amérique latine en comparaison avec les Etats Unis en utilisant quelques-unes des techniques nouvelles. On applique des tests non-stationnaires et de co-intégration au taux de change nominal ainsi qu’au niveau des prix à l’intérieur et à l’étranger (Etats Unis). Les résultats donnent évidence de la Ppa entre ces pays et les Etats Unis.

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Resumen La paridad del poder de compra en América Latina: un análisis de cointegración. - Desarrollos recientes de la econometría y de las técnicas de análisis de series de tiempo posibilitan interpretaciones nuevas de muchas teorías económicas, incluyendo a una de las más antiguas, a la de la paridad del poder de compra (PPP). En este trabajo se hace un test de la teoria de la PPP en nueve países latinoamericanos frente al dólar USA utilizando algunas de estas técnicas. Se aplican tests de no estacionaridad y cointegración a la tasa de cambio nominal y al nivel agregado de precios en estos países y en los EE UU. Los resultados muestran evidencia en favor de la PPP para estos países y los EE UU.

     

Community participation for health: The case of Latin America

Current efforts at involving communities in health activities are analysed from a number of perspectives. Participation may be mainly aimed at easing resource constraints, through involvement in the implementation of health activities. Examples are the construction of health infrastructure, or the enlistment of community health workers — though in Latin America strong medical resistance to delegation has severely restricted their tasks. Participation in decision-making has been even more limited, with the exception of some small-scale NGO projects. Examples are next given of the differences that arise between projects with governmental or NGO sponsorship, or with a conservative or progressive orientation. Finally, the structure of the community, and the socio-political context in which it exists, are examined for the different constraints and opportunities they present to community participation for health.     

拉美城市化教训对我国的警示

目前,我国以农村向城市、农业向非农业流动为主导的城市化正步入快车道。根据国家人口发展战略研究成果,2014年我国城市化水平可能超过50％,2030年的城市化率达到67％左右;2025年前我国城镇化的年均增长速度会达到或略超过1个百分点,2025年后会逐渐放慢并低于1个百分点。当前我国城市化进程与当时的拉美国家存在一定的类似性,我们应认真吸取拉美城市化教训。     

The job crisis in Latin America: A role for multinational corporations in introducing more labour-intensive technologies

Latin America presently faces a critical unemployment problem. A major cause has been an emphasis on ‘maximum-growth’ models and ‘sophisticated’ industrial production techniques rather than on programmes and processes which utilize human resources more fully. A variety of factors-economic, technological, political, and cultural-accounts for the proliferation of these inappropriate technologies, but possibilities exist in most industries to adapt them so as to employ more labour economically. To date, multinational corporations have done little in this field, but Latin American governments can and must prevail upon them to contribute to a resolution of the unemployment problem.     

Suggestions for providing services to the handicapped in Latin America

This paper discusses some issues involved in the transfer of models of programmes for the handicapped from the US to Latin America. It argues that different needs require a re-evaluation of criteria of efficiency and the uses of professional help in Latin-American programmes. A variety of studies by international organizations concerned with services for the handicapped (in the context of provision of general health services) as well as this author's experience indicate that such services should be more closely tied to the community, provided in places that do not cost a great deal of money to construct or maintain, and delivered by local people who are involved in the daily lives of the recipients. This paper attempts to answer the question why Latin-American countries, despite such recommendations, continue to base their programmes on inappropriate and highly professionalized models from the US.     

中国与拉美:以信任为基础的区域合作

中国和拉美不具备地缘优势、价值观认同、文化渊源等先赋性信任的基础,双方通过官民结合,多边与双边兼顾外交建立了交往性信任关系.而美国因素、拉美原因、中拉经贸都可能对双方关系造成负面影响.需塑造共同利益、创新合作模式、加强软实力建设,强化双方的信任关系,形成中拉区域意识,推动双方展开更深层次的务实合作.     

Institutions and the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Deforestation: A Crosscountry Analysis for Latin America,Africa and Asia

The relationship between deforestation and income across 66 countries of Latin America, Africa and Asia is examined. Institutional characteristics as well as macroeconomic policies of each country are hypothesized to impact deforestation. Results show strong evidence of an environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) relationship between income and deforestation for all three continents. Institutional structure and macroeconomic policy significantly affect the tropical deforestation process. Improvements in political institutions and governance significantly reduce deforestation. The factors leading to deforestation differ across regions, however, and there is no one-size-fits-all global policy recommendation for restraining the tropical deforestation process.     

Reforming Budgetary Institutions in Latin America: The Case for a National Fiscal Council

Latin America's economies have made tremendous improvements in recent years. Following the lost decade of the 1980s, economic growth has resumed. But the fruits of this progress remain to be consolidated. The political consensus supporting reform is fragile, and the economies of the region are still susceptible to destabilizing shocks, as recent events have underscored. Even well-devised economic policy strategies can be thrown off course by disturbances. This article proposes an institutional reform—a National Fiscal Council—designed to allow Latin American countries to break out of this vicious circle.     

Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America

Exchange rates forecasting performance is tested by a model which incorporates endogenous monetary policy through a Taylor rule reaction function. Other usual monetary and equilibrium empirical exchange rate models are also evaluated for comparison purposes. Predictability is tested by comparing the models to a benchmark random walk specification. We contribute to the recent literature in many ways. First, we include models of forward-looking endogenous monetary policy to the exchange rate forecasting exercise, the Taylor model. Second, our data, set across countries, is uniform in terms of economies adopting both inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate. Third, our study sheds light on exchange rate determinants for emerging economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico. Our results show strong predictability evidence for the Taylor model and indicate that assuming models of endogenous monetary policy and the present value of expected fundamentals is a rewarding strategy to model exchange rate determination.     

Women and agricultural change in Latin America: Some concepts guiding research

We are not yet in a position to draw simple conclusions from the existing research literature in answer to the question of how the lives of rural women are affected by the processes of commercialization and capitalization in agriculture. The most serious problem inhibiting generalization has been the underlying conceptual and political differences among commentators. This article will explore and illuminate these conceptual differences, discuss the basic weaknesses of the ‘impact model’ (of agricultural change on women) most commonly adopted up to now, and indicate directions taken by alternative conceptualizations that stress the interplay of relations of gender with relations of class and ethnicity.     

Trade Specialization in Latin America: The Impact of China and India

This paper examines the extent to which the growth of China and India in world markets is affecting the patterns of trade specialization in Latin American (LA) economies. We construct a measure of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) by 3-digit ISIC sector, country, and year. This RCA accounts for both imports and exports. The empirical analyses explore the correlation between the RCAs of LA and the two Asian economies. Econometric estimates suggest that the specialization pattern of LA—with the exception of Mexico—has been moving in opposite direction to the trade specialization pattern of China and India. Labor-intensive sectors (both unskilled and skilled) probably have been negatively affected by the growing presence of China and India in world markets, while natural resource and scientific knowledge intensive sectors have probably benefited from China and India’s growth since 1990. JEL no.  F10, F14     

The Link between Institutional and Economic Integration: Insights for Latin America from the European Experience

The European experience illustrates that institutional integration interacts with economic integration at the regional level. In this paper we ask how economic and institutional integration are linked and whether there is a causal link between the two. We present an original indicator of institutional integration and study how it developed vis-à-vis diverse measures of economic integration. In particular, we ask what insights can be drawn from the European process of regional integration, which started in the 1950s, for regional integration in Latin America today. We find that Latin America is currently less economically integrated not only than the European Union today, but for certain economic variables even than the European Union in the 1960s. A VAR analysis illustrates that the link between institutional and economic integration has worked both ways throughout the European experience. There is also evidence that stronger institutional integration has indeed led to deeper economic integration.     

Industry restructuring and regulation: Building a base for sustainable growth - lessons from Latin America

The potential for economic growth of nations is related to the state of their infrastructure. In this connection, it has been estimated that one percent growth in GDP requires an investment of one percent of GDP in energy, transportation, telecommunications, and water and sanitation infrastructure.