Rates of return to education of blacks in South Africa

The aim of this empirical study was to calculate private and social rates of return to education and to test the hypothesis that education is a major determinant of earning differentials for blacks in South Africa. Data for 23 278 working men and women were extracted from the 1985 Current Population Survey files. This comprised a sample representative of the black population in the Republic of South Africa excluding the former Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda and Ciskei territories. Lifetime earnings profiles were constructed from these data for five educational levels, namely, no schooling up to Standard 1; Standards 2 to 4; Standards 5 to 7; Standards 8 to 9; and Standard 10. Schooling was assumed to account for 60 per cent of the earnings differentials between these profiles. Imputed average household outlays on schooling were taken as the private direct cost of education. These were supplemented by estimates of per pupil spending by the various government departments responsible for black education, to calculate the social costs per year of primary and secondary schooling. Indirect costs in the form of imputed foregone earnings were included from Standard 5 (age 15) onwards. The private internal rates of return to education of males were found to be about 16 per cent at primary level and 24 per cent for secondary schooling. Corresponding social rates of return are about 6 per cent for primary and 15 per cent for secondary education. Estimates for females showed negative rates of return between no schooling and Standards 2 to 4, the private and social rates being estimated at ‐1 per cent and ‐4 per cent respectively; from Standards 2 to 4 to Standards 5 to 7, a private rate of 12 per cent and a social rate of 4 per cent are reported; and for the remaining secondary school phases private rates of about 32 per cent and social rates of about 15 per cent are estimated. The study confirms that education is a major determinant of earnings differentials and education expansion can be regarded as a powerful earnings equaliser.     

Labour market discrimination in the North West province of South Africa

This article provides an econometric estimate of labour market discrimination in the North West province of South Africa. Using data obtained from the October 1995 Household Survey, it was found that in 1995 statistically significant gender discrimination exists against women in North West's labour market. The male discriminatory wage advantage of 127 per cent and the female discriminatory disadvantage of 195 per cent were ascribed to the overrewarding and underrewarding of some personal characteristics of males and females, respectively. Productivity differentials of 40 per cent in favour of females and a premium paid to women measuring 71 per cent also exist. Discrimination explains 50 per cent of the wage gap between genders, while productivity differentials and the premium account for 13 and 37 per cent respectively. The study supports 'affirmative action' and suggests policies that aim to alter the occupational distributions, and these may need to target educational decisions made prior to labour market entry.     

THE CHANGING FACE OF PUBLIC FINANCING OF HIGHER EDUCATION,WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SOUTH AFRICA1

Higher education displays characteristics of both private and public goods and there is a trend worldwide to expect individuals to pay more of the costs of their higher education. In South Africa public funding of higher education decreased from 0.86% of GDP in 1986 to only 0.66% in 2006; so that student tuition fees had to be increased to compensate for this loss of income. In the process staff numbers were kept relatively constant while student numbers increased appreciably. Two future scenarios, based on public higher education expenditure as a percentage of GDP and on real state allocation per WFTES, are spelt out. Although the qualifications awarded per FTE academic staff member increased over time, the graduation rates of the higher education institutions in South Africa are worsening. High‐level research, measured in publication units per FTE academic staff member, shows a disturbing decreasing trend since 1997.     

Perceptions of economic and financial conditions of households in 2000

'The economy grew by 3,0 per cent in 2000. This was the fastest growth since 1996, buoyed by a strong recovery in household consumption spending and an increase in exports of over 7 per cent in real terms' (Trevor Manuel, Minister of Finance, Budget speech, 21 February 2001). 'Growth won't solve our problems. The faster the economy grows, the faster will be the creation of jobs for the highly skilled. So there will be more, not fewer, problems with income disparity' (Iraj Abedian, Standard Bank Group Economist, cited in Financial Mail , 2001a). The aim of this article is to examine the extent to which economic growth, experienced in 2000, improved the financial and economic conditions of South African households, by analysing a national representative survey of 2 700 adult South Africans conducted by the Human Sciences Research Council in September 2000. The survey results were analysed by disaggregating data by race, gender, area type, province and Living Standard Measure (LSM). The theme emerging from this article is that although the majority of households were negatively affected financially and economically, proportionally more Africans, women, rural residents and poor households were hardest hit. Although South Africa achieved a 3 per cent economic growth rate in 2000, there is limited evidence to suggest that this growth trickled down to the majority of households.     

Non‐compliance with the Minimum Wage Law when Completely New Minimum Wage Laws Are Established: The Case of South Africa

Abstract: Using the case of South Africa, we study compliance with the minimum wage law when completely new minimum wage levels are established. By even the best estimate, the compliance rate in South Africa would not exceed 40 per cent for the agricultural sector and 30 per cent for the domestic worker sector. The compliance rates by subpopulation groups reveal that the compliance rate is low where the cost to comply with the minimum wage law is high, implying that government inspections are not done where they are likely to have the highest payoff. However, if the government tries to enforce the policy more strictly, the poor/less skilled would be adversely affected.     

Determinants of labour force participation in the North West province of South Africa

Based on data extracted from the 1995 October Household Survey of Statistics South Africa, this study has found that potential income is a major factor in labour force participation by African women in the North West province of South Africa. Other significant determinants of participation for both genders are age, education, region, marital status and relationship to the head of the household. The results imply that significant discrimination against African women still exists in the North West province, which partly explains the much lower participation rate for African women (64 per cent), compared with that of African men (86,5 per cent). The study supports the North West government's development strategy of developing human resources to eradicate poverty.     

An Index‐Based Model for Determining the Investment Benchmark of Renewable Energy Projects in South Africa

In a globalised world, financial markets observe the optimal level of asset allocation and returns based on risk inherent in the economies. Whether public or private investors, they need to have an optimal return on their investment given the finite resources. In relatively new sectors like grid‐connected renewable energy, many investors face difficulty in assessing proper return, making them more averse to financing such projects, affecting transborder project development opportunities. In developing countries like South Africa, which has tremendous potential for renewable energy projects, an arbitrary choice of the required rate of return for project evaluations can negatively affect funding decisions. This paper explores an index‐based model to make fair estimates of the required equity benchmark internal rate of return (IRR) using financial markets observation for renewable energy projects in South Africa. The index‐based model is parsimonious and captures common macroeconomic factors. More specifically, it provides a simple and effective mechanism to calculate IRR for renewable energy projects given different gestation periods.     

Wage Returns to Schooling in Nigeria

Abstract: In the last two decades, primary and secondary school enrollment rates have declined in Nigeria while enrollment rates in post‐secondary school have increased. This paper estimates from the General Household Survey for Nigeria the private returns to schooling associated with levels of educational attainment for wage and self‐employed workers. The estimates for both men and women are small at primary and secondary levels, 2–4 percent, but are substantial at post‐secondary education level, 10–15 percent. These schooling return estimates may account for the recent trends in enrollments. Thus, increasing public investment to encourage increased attendance in basic education is not justifiable on grounds of private efficiency, unless investments to increase school quality have higher private returns. With high private returns to post‐secondary schooling, students at this level should pay tuition, to recoup more of the public costs of schooling, which may be redistributed to poor families through scholarships.     

An evaluation of age–sex distributions of South Africa's population within the context of HIV/AIDS

Knowledge about the age–sex distribution of a population is valuable for planning and decision making as it is a determinant of the future development of the population. Various aspects of the age–sex distributions of the population of South Africa estimated by Statistics South Africa remain controversial. For example, at face value the 1996 census implies that the overall sex ratio dropped from 97 in 1970 to 92 in 1996 and 91 in 2001. The 1996 census results also imply that the proportion of peoples aged 0–4 dropped from 15 per cent in 1970 to 11 per cent in 1996 and 10 per cent in 2001. In an attempt to shed more light on these controversies this study evaluates the age–sex distributions from the 1996 census, using a novel approach, and also develops model age–sex distributions for South Africa as a means of evaluating age–sex distributions from the 2001 census, and future censuses and surveys in the country.     

The South African brain drain: An empirical assessment

There is no reliable data on the extent of South African skilled emigration and return migration. Statistics South Africa stopped collecting emigration data more than a decade ago. This paper provides data from the turn of the century collected in the countries to which South Africans emigrate. It first provides detailed data on emigration to the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United States – the main destinations for emigrants from South Africa. It then provides estimates for the United Arab Emirates. Finally, it presents data for twenty-five other OECD countries. By contrast with widespread claims that there has been a very large brain gain as South Africans have returned following the global financial crisis, it shows that there was still a net brain drain, albeit at a slower pace. The most recent data suggest that the rate of emigration may be accelerating again.

Abbreviations: OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development     

MODELLING INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: A MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

We employ an expectations augmented Phillips curve framework to investigate the link between inflation, unit labour costs, the output gap, the real exchange rate and inflation expectations. Using multivariate cointegration techniques, we find evidence consistent with mark‐up behaviour of output prices over unit labour costs. Most importantly, we find that the mark‐up in the South African economy is much higher than in the U.S. For South Africa we find a markup of about 30 per cent: three times as high as the 10 per cent markup found for the U.S.     

Returns to education among the informally employed in Thailand

Thailand experienced rapid economic development and made significant investments in education over the past four decades; however, more than half of Thai workers remain informally employed. Despite the prevalence and persistence of informal work in Thailand, little is known about the returns to investments in formal education among informal workers. Using individual-level data from the 2011, 2013, and 2015 Thailand Household Socio-economic Surveys, this study estimates the wage returns to years of education for informal workers using an instrumental variable (IV) approach to correct for potentially biased coefficient estimates on years of education due to unobserved ability. Contrary to expectations, informally employed Thai workers find substantial returns to investments in formal education. The results under the IV approach indicate that the return to an additional year of education for the informally employed is 11–12 per cent, compared to almost 15 per cent for formally employed private firm workers.     

中国农村地区教育私人收益率低的制度归因

与国际标准模型相比,中国农村教育私人收益率仍然偏低。转轨阶段双重分割的社会结构扭曲了劳动力的价格、日益凋敝的农村和农业以及城市偏向的教育投资政策增加了农村私人教育成本,抑制了农村教育私人收益率的提高。由此导致的人力资本投资不足是农民在既定制度约束下理性选择的结果。     

Financing of land purchase by small‐scale farmers

Binswanger attributes the problem facing poor people in financing land purchase to the inclusion of a real capital gains component in the price of land. This article attributes it largely to a cash flow problem which arises from positive inflation rates. The Ricardian rent return to land in South African agriculture is estimated at between 4 and 5 per cent while the Land Bank's interest rate is 15 per cent. Interest payments on a bond can therefore not be met from rents to land alone. If, as an extreme situation, the expected inflation rate were zero, farmers might have been able to borrow funds at 4 to 5 per cent. To bring debt servicing in line with projected cash flows in the real situation, mortgage interest rates could be subsidised; or, in an alternative affirmative action, the state could contribute towards the purchase price of land. These alternatives are discussed.     

Gendered trends in poverty in the post-apartheid period, 1997–2006

This study investigates whether trends in the extent and depth of poverty in South Africa over the past decade have been gendered. We examine whether females are more likely to live in poor households than males and whether this has changed over time, and how poverty has changed for female-headed and male-headed households. We use data from the 1997 and 1999 October Household Surveys and the 2004 and 2006 General Household Surveys, which have the advantage of collecting information on the individual receipt of social grant income. We find that although poverty rates have fallen for both males and females, and for male-headed and female-headed households, the decline has been larger for males and for male-headed households. Gender differences in poverty rates have therefore widened over the period. We show that these findings are robust to the possible underestimation of household income and to adjustments for household composition.     

Changes over time in the return to education in urban China: Conventional and ORU estimates

Studies of the return to education in urban China have reported that this has increased over time, and that females typically have a higher return than males. In this paper we adopt a framework provided by the over education/required education/under education literature, and the decomposition developed by Chiswick and Miller (2008), to investigate the reasons for these findings. The finding by Chen and Hamori (2009), from analysis of data for 2004 and 2006, of the return to schooling for males exceeding that for females, is also examined using this decomposition.     

Evidence of short-term household change in South Africa from the National Income Dynamics Study

We use longitudinal data from the National Income Dynamics Study to document the extent of recent short-term residential and household compositional change in South Africa. We analyse the demographic correlates of these transitions, including population group, age, urban/rural status, and income. We examine educational and labour-market transitions among movers and the prevalence of the four major types of compositional change – births, addition of joiners, deaths, and loss of leavers. We find that short-term household change is prevalent in South Africa. During a two-year period from 2008 to 2010, 10.5% of South Africans moved residence and 61.3% experienced change in household composition. We find that moving is more common among blacks and whites, very young children, young adults, urban individuals, and those with higher incomes. Among non-movers, compositional change is more likely for blacks and coloureds, young adults and children, females, urban individuals, and individuals with lower incomes.     

The relationship between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa: An empirical study

This article examines the link between financial sector development and savings mobilisation in South Africa for the period 1980–2012. Taking the life-cycle hypothesis as our theoretical background and using Johansen co-integration that allows for hypothesis testing, the empirical results revealed a long-run relationship between savings, interest rates and financial sector development. We find an inverse relationship between the interest rate and savings, implying that South Africans are net borrowers because the income effect overwhelms the substitution effect. This in part explains the low level of savings in recent time. Important policy lessons for boosting the national savings rate are discussed.     

A quantitative determination of the food security status of rural farming households in the Northern Province of South Africa

The majority of South Africans living in rural areas are food insecure despite high levels of national food self-sufficiency. The household food security position of two groups of rural farming households in the Venda region was evaluated quantitatively: one group produces vegetables that are sold or consumed locally, the other group produces cash crops – mangoes and other subtropical fruits. Using the collected data, food availability and energy, protein and fat requirements were calculated and balances derived. It was found that more than 80 per cent of the households had a negative balance of energy, protein and fat intake. The average energy, protein and fat coverage consumption was the same for both groups of farmers. A number of agricultural determinants were tested, but only non-agricultural determinants were found to be significant. These include household size, household (food) expenditure and proportion of the budget spent on food.