LAND USE PERMITS AS AN ALTERNATIVE TO FERTILISER AND LEACHING TAXES FOR THE CONTROL OF NITRATE POLLUTION

Legislation emanating from the European Community is establishing pressures to take action to reduce the level of nitrates in water, and the principles established towards environmental management indicate an emphasis on prevention rather than treatment. This paper analyses three possible approaches by means of controls on fertilisers, on nitrate leaching and on land use. These are incorporated into a linear programming model of a catchment in Cambridgeshire. The results indicate the superior cost-effectiveness of controls over leaching and the severe impact which taxes would have on farm incomes. A system of permits on land use is found to be relatively cost-effective and to offer an administratively feasible alternative.     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round? Modeling the Development Impact of Recent Proposals

We analyse the impact on developing countries, whose economies depend heavily on agriculture, of a WTO Doha Development Round agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition. We present the results of an ambitious versus an unambitious Doha Round outcome, using the MIRAGE model of the global economy, with a special focus on developing countries. Our simulations are based on negotiating proposals from the run-up to the Hong Kong ministerial meeting but not agreed upon in December 2005. We compare those outcomes with the estimated effects of full global trade liberalization. The results for the two Doha scenarios demonstrate the high stakes of this negotiation given the positions of EU, US and the G-20 coalition. A successful round could deliver real gains both globally and for developing countries, but the magnitude of those gains depends on the shape of the agreement. A reform outcome based on the most ambitious components of the negotiating proposals of the US and EU delivers noticeably greater benefits than an unambitious outcome. Developing countries are exposed to very contrasting fortunes. The details matter in the differing proposals, such as the tariff and domestic support reduction formulae, tariff caps, and number of sensitive and special products. Negotiating commitment and diligence are needed in 2006 to avoid a hollow Doha outcome given the technical character of these details.     

The use of ex-ante modelling tools in European Impact Assessment: What role does land use play?

Impact Assessment was introduced by the European Commission in 2002 in order to make policy development more transparent and improve the ‘quality’ of European policies. Cross-sectoral consultation, broad participation and the quantitative assessment of the impacts of policies are significant elements of this process. This article specifically addresses the role of tools modelling the impact of policies on land use in Impact Assessment. The choice of a specific modelling tool is conceptualised as an action situation interlinked with other action arenas. The article aims to uncover the institutions structuring the action situation. The outcome of the empirical work suggests that two types of Impact Assessments can be distinguished. Impact Assessments either substantively contribute to the specific policy that the Commission proposes or they legitimise policy choices ex post that have already been adopted. The legislative procedure that applies to a specific policy sector, the policy making culture in the DG and the stakes that are at issue seem to influence whether Impact Assessments contribute to policy development, or legitimise it. Furthermore, the article describes the situation in which desk officers choose a modelling tool throughout Impact Assessment. To advance their careers desk officers aim to produce policy proposals which respond to the issues raised by the actors involved in Impact Assessment and specifically in policy development and, later on, adoption. Therefore, desk officers’ preferences are shaped by the community that is involved in policy development and Impact Assessment. The article describes what role modelling tools play in European Impact Assessment procedures and it names the heuristic of criteria which desk officers use to choose a modelling tool. Besides several technical and data problems of modelling land use impact, it seems to be unlikely that land use will become a significant dimension of Impact Assessment and modelling as it is confronted with an unfavourable institutional environment at the European level.     

An Economic Analysis of Groundwater Contamination from Agricultural Nitrate Emissions in Southern Ontario

This paper analyzes the costs and benefits of controlling groundwater pollution from agricultural use of nitrogen fertilizer in southwestern Ontario. The Village of Hensall, where nitrate concentrations have been observed above 10 mg/L in recent years, is selected as the study site.'The CREAMS simulation model is used to estimate the effect of reducing nitrogen fertilizer on nitrate leaching and consequently on nitrate groundwater pollution. Estimates of the value of groundwater are obtained from the literature and are used to calculate the off-farm cost of groundwater contamination. This procedure results in a wide range of values for the benefits of reducing nitrate pollution. Estimated annual benefits of improved ground-water quality range from less than $1,000 to more than $30,000 for the village. The off-farm benefits of nitrate groundwater pollution abatement outweigh the cost of using bottled water and also exceed the on-farm cost of reducing nitrogen fertilizer application rates. Placing a tax on nitrogen fertilizer would reduce the level of nitrogen applications, but the farm cost of compliance to a nitrogen tax policy is substantially higher than the compliance cost under a regulatory policy that imposes a quantitative ceiling on nitrogen application rates over the part of the aquifer from which the village draws its water supply.     

Land contamination risk management in Cameroon: A critical review of the existing policy framework

Land affected by contamination from human activities has been identified as a major environmental problem in developed countries and there are established mechanisms for identifying, prioritising, characterising, assessing and remediating the land so that risks to human health and environmental receptors are minimised. However, comparative mechanisms and approaches for sustainable land management are often lacking in developing countries such as Cameroon. This paper presents a critical review of the existing policy framework in Cameroon in relation to environmental management, particularly land contamination.It is established that in Cameroon, there is an acute lack of comprehensive information on land contamination from economic development and industrialisation, inadequate legal and institutional framework, weak enforcement capacity and unsatisfactory coordination between various stakeholders towards sustainable land management practices. The coastal town of Douala, which has the highest level of industrial activity in the sub region is used to demonstrate how dealing with land contamination is a public health priority and requires attention in the context of sustainable development. The United Kingdom (UK) regulatory policy framework on land contamination risk management is used to show how land contamination issues and risk management approaches, including conceptual site models, could be introduced into the sustainability discourse in Cameroon. A number of recommendations including proposals for a radical overhaul of the current regulatory policy framework are formulated and presented. Specifically, the creation of an independent Cameroon Environment Protection Agency (CEPA) that will be the main regulatory body responsible for developing and implementing the policy proposals in this paper is advocated.     

Economic and environmental effects of decoupled agricultural support in the EU

This article reports findings from a simulation model representing the European farming system disaggregated at different scales. This modeling experiment explores the effects of various decoupling options associated with the 2003 European agreement on gross margins, land use, shadow cost of land, and greenhouse gas emissions. Our results show increases in the farmers’ gross margins when decoupled support is maintained equal to the amount of direct aid previously attributed to agricultural production, assuming unchanged prices. Land used for pasture increases at the expense of land used for cereals and protein crops. The extent to which these effects materialize depends on the policy options selected by Member States when implementing the Luxembourg agreement. When they opt for some recoupling of support, adverse net economic impacts occur for producers. Regional differences in impacts are more pronounced than the analysis aggregated at European and national scales suggests. This highlights the need for further work based on geostatistical downscaling.     

Trade Reform and the Corn Market: Prospects for the World Trade Organization Negotiations on Agriculture

Government support and trade restrictions on agricultural commodities are among the most globally distorting protectionist policies. This is especially true with regards to corn. Vast production subsidies and import barriers, primarily within the European Union and China, have artificially inflated the global supply of this commodity, while restricting the available consumer markets. This impact is augmented by the preferential treatment granted in these countries to the production and importation of the best available substitute to corn, soybeans. Using an econometric model with commodity data over the past 20 years, this article predicts the likely impact of potential World Trade Organization (WTO) trade pacts on these corn trade distortions. Despite the WTO setback in Seattle, the vast global benefits resulting from agricultural trade liberalization in corn alone validate a continued push towards freer trade.     

Cost and trade impacts of environmental regulations: effluent control and the New Zealand dairy sector

New Zealand legislation sets standards for water quality. Nitrogen leaching from dairy effluent compromises these standards, with the consequent move being toward land-based effluent disposal. The cost of this to the dairy sector was estimated and a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (GTAP) was used to investigate the impact of additional production costs on NZ's dairy export trade. Two scenarios were analysed: first, NZ acts unilaterally in imposing water quality regulations, second, the other principal dairy exporters act in a similar fashion. Changes in trade patterns vary from insignificant to large, depending on the scenario analysed.     

Some Lessons from the Modelling of the Spanish Rice Market

Spanish accession to the European Comminity (EC) will lead to many changes in Spain's agricultural sector. Predicting the nature of these changes is difficult because the new policy regime differs significantly from historic Spanish policies. In this paper, conventional econometric models of the Spanish rice sector are constrated with a model designed specifically to reflect the pervasive impact of Spanish rice policies. This policy model predicts the historical evolution of production, consumption and trade more accurately than the conventional models. However, the policy model cannot be used to predict the impact of the radical policy changes in Spain resulting from the introduction of the EC rice regime because the historical relationships no longer hold. It is argued that alternative approaches relying more on institutional analysis and expert opinion need to be developed to understand the future of the Spanish rice sector.     

福建乌龙茶的品牌忠诚影响因素实证研究——以福州消费者为例

以福州消费者问卷调查数据为基础,利用结构方程模型对福建乌龙茶的品牌忠诚影响因素进行计量分析研究。结果表明:福建乌龙茶的感官品质、价格合理性、购买便利性、广告,以及"消费者对自我形象的态度、对风险厌恶程度"都对福建乌龙茶的品牌忠诚具有极显著的正向影响;"消费者对相关群体的重视程度"呈显著的负向影响,而"消费者对时间的重视程度"没有显著的影响。并在此基础上,提出相应的对策。     

我国西部退耕还林的经济学分析:基于外部性视角

以西部退耕还林工程的生态补偿问题为研究对象,运用经济学的外部性理论对退耕还林补偿政策及相关生态补偿政策进行了分析与评述。探讨了财政补偿政策对农民退耕还林的激励作用、最佳的退耕还林规模、补偿标准的确定及国家对于退耕还林实行长期补偿政策的必要性。提出了完善退耕还林补偿政策的相关对策与建议。     

Agricultural and Economy‐Wide Effects of European Enlargement: Modelling the Common Agricultural Policy

The economic impact of extending the Common Agricultural Policy to the Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC) has become a major issue in the European enlargement debate. This paper provides an assessment of the economy‐wide effects of European enlargement using a global general equilibrium model where special attention is given to modelling the instruments of the Common Agricultural Policy, the Agenda 2000 proposal and the EU budget. The results indicate a substantial potential for increasing agricultural production in the CEEC. The EU budget will increase significantly and the transfers from EU taxpayers to farmers in the CEEC result in significant welfare gains in the new member countries. In spite of these important transfers the macroeconomic costs for the EU are found to be limited.     

经济发展中国土资源环境代价形成的制度分析

在我国经济发展过程中,无限制地索取国土资源,对国土资源环境造成了极大的破坏,这是国土环境代价形成的一方面;而另一方面是由于我国的经济体制、管理体制和国土资源环境保护政策等制度因素造成的。文章分析了经济发展中国土资源环境代价形成的制度原因,提出国土资源环境管理应向公共管理转变,建立健全正式制度和有力的实施机制。     

Spatial Dynamics of Water and Nitrogen Management in Irrigated Agriculture

Dynamic optimization of crop production with nonuniform irrigation and nitrogen carryover and leaching is considered. A production function system with thresholds, plateau maximum, and yield reduction is estimated from experimental data; rapid convergence to a steady-state is observed. Spatial variability implies a 40% increase in applied water and a six-fold increase in nitrate emissions, while dynamic optimization has more modest impacts. Nitrate emission control is accomplished primarily through reduced applied water, illustrating a strong cross-policy effect. Significant levels of water conservation and nitrate pollution control are achieved at relatively low cost with traditional irrigation systems and baseline conditions.     

CAP Subsidies and Productivity of the EU Farms

The paper investigates the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies on farm total factor productivity (TFP) in the European Union (EU). We employ a structural semi‐parametric estimation algorithm directly incorporating the effect of subsidies into a model of unobserved productivity. We empirically study the effects using the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) samples for the EU‐15 countries. Our main findings are clear: subsidies impact negatively on farm productivity in the period before the decoupling reform was implemented; after decoupling the effect of subsidies on productivity is more nuanced and in several countries it turned positive.     

Analysing Dutch dairy farmer behaviour towards the provision of public goods: The added value of an economic simulation experiment

The objective of this paper is to examine the value of experiments for assessing the impact of the proposed Common Agricultural Policy of 2013 on farm income and farming strategies. We focus specifically on the impact of an alternative direct payment system based on a flat rate and green payments. We show the added value of an economic simulation experiment to existing economic micro- and sector modeling analysis when analyzing farmer behavior. It is shown that the suitability of and rewards for the provision of green services play a significant role in their uptake by farmers and the support for them. These results are useful in implementing a revised direct payments system in the Netherlands for the future.     

土地流转中的产权交易

随着房地产业的兴起 ,土地流转过程中存在着许多似是而非的认识 ,并因此产生了不少纠纷。本文依据产权理论 ,对当前土地转让形式的形成原因和弊端进行了剖析 ,提出应通过制度创新 ,建立产权交易制度来解决土地转让问题     

Cap towards 2020 and the cost of political choices: The case of Emilia-romagna region

The paper assesses the different schemes of regionalisation and greening implementation according to both the preliminary proposals presented to the Trilogue and the CAP Reform adopted on 16 December 2013. The objective is to compare the different potential impacts on production (land use) and on the economic revenue of farm holders in the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy). The assessment is performed by a regional positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and is carried out for single farms appearing in the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data. Sampling weights are used to make the simulation results consistent with the production structure of the region. The findings confirm a big weakening in what would have been the impact of the Commission’s proposal. In terms of lower gross margin incurred by farmers for fulfilling the greening requirements in the final CAP scenario, the model estimates a reduction corresponding to 20 €/ha. The greatest economic effects of the new CAP appear to be mainly due to the redistribution of direct payments.     

Forestry in the Republic of Ireland: Government policy,grant incentives and carbon sequestration value

Recent decades have seen a rapid increase in the area of privately owned forest plantations in Ireland. This has been largely driven by grant aid and annual premium payments from the government and the European Union. These forests are significant carbon sinks and as such are delivering added benefit to the country by contributing to greenhouse gas reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.The direct impact of government subvention on the net present value (NPV) for a defined forestry plantation is investigated. The added value of carbon sequestration to forestry investment is also examined using the Forestry Commission (Great Britain) carbon model. Extending the typical assumption of a constant carbon price for project appraisal purposes, this paper allows carbon prices to evolve randomly according to a flexible stochastic price process. The model chosen is an extended mean-reverting jump-diffusion with the flexibility to capture the higher order statistical features (i.e. skewness and kurtosis) of the carbon markets. This allows for an analysis of the risk and uncertainty around the NPV from exposure to stochastic carbon prices. It is shown that government grants and annual premiums for afforestation significantly improve the NPV on forestry investment. Carbon sequestration is shown to add further value.     

Non‐Reciprocal Trade Preferences and the Role of Compliance Costs in the Agricultural Sector: Exports to the EU

We investigate whether non‐reciprocal preferential regimes granted by the European Union have an impact on agricultural export flows from beneficiary countries while accounting for the costs of compliance that may prevent exporters from taking full advantage of potential benefits. Compliance costs are heterogeneous and difficult to measure. We proxy their influence and specify a model that allows for a different preferential margin impact according to the proxy costs. Adopting the gravity framework and using a sample of 554 lines of agricultural products for 131 developing countries in 2002, we find that the costs of compliance play a role in making the schemes work: the lower the costs, the greater the impact of the preferential margins. Moreover, the estimated margin effect differs between different regimes.