Does trade always harm the global environment? A case for positive interaction

We demonstrate that there are links between international tradeand environmental control, heretofore unappreciated, which mightsubstantially alter the efficacy of various governmental policiesto control pollution. One concern about national environmentalpolicies is that, whereas the benefits of certain types of abatementmight be international or even worldwide, the costs will beborne strictly by the consumers and firms of the country whichinstitutes the policy. As a result, for those types of pollutionwhich are global (such as greenhouse gases) there will be toolittle pollution abatement. Our first result is that this pessimisticconclusion may be unwarranted. In a 2 x 2 Ricardian model, wealso show cases where the non-cooperative contribution of countriesto global environmental protection, contrary to the conventionalresults, exceeds that of the cooperative one due to associatedchanges in the terms of trade. Thus, international trade isnot always a threat to global environment.     

Are China's trade interests overestimated? Evidence from firms’ importing behavior and pollution emissions

Importing is an important driving force for a country's economic growth. While importing promotes the expansion of economic scale, does it also lead the increase of pollution emissions in production? In this paper, we establish a micro theoretical model to analyze the impacts of importing on firms’ environmental performance, and then use the data of China's manufacturing firms for empirical tests. We show that the importing of intermediate goods or capital goods will lead to the increase of firms’ production scale, and thereby increasing their total emissions, which suggests that China's environment will be deteriorated by importing. On the other hand, importing also has some positive environmental effects that firms will increase their abatement investment after importing intermediate goods or capital goods, thus firms’ emission intensity can be effectively reduced. Altogether, this paper provides important evidence on the impacts of importing on pollution emissions at product-level. We suggest that when analyzing China's interests in trade, the environmental effects of trade should be taken into consideration, otherwise China's gains from trade will be overestimated. This paper also has important implications that while developing the economy through international trade, the government should strengthen environmental protection and advocate green trade.     

TRADE AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: IS SOUTHERN AFRICA A POLLUTION HAVEN?

Evidence that the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) may be explained by trade patterns casts doubt on the oft‐stated conclusion that economic growth automatically leads to environmental improvement. Trends in net exports as a proportion of consumption for both USA and UK trade with SACU were examined for various dirty industries. Some evidence of pollution haven effects is found, although a similar trend for clean industries suggests that this effect is weak. However, even a general shift in manufacturing industries from North to South (as opposed to a shift in specifically dirty industries) may explain the EKC to some extent.     

How to increase global resource productivity? Findings from modelling in the petrE project

The analysis in the chapter is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model that contains 50 countries and two regions and their bilateral trade relations, energy balances, material, macro-economic and structural data. The model is applied in the petrE project to analyze the impacts of major environmental tax reforms (ETR) and the EU ETS to reach the EU GHG reduction targets until 2020. The ETR includes a carbon tax for all non-ETS sectors and a material tax. Scenarios look at unilateral EU action and at international cooperation by all OECD countries and the major emerging economies. The chapter presents some of the modelling results. A major ETR in Europe could significantly reduce environmental pressures in Europe while creating additional jobs. Small negative GDP impacts are within the range of results of other studies. The results clearly demonstrate that only global action with substantial carbon prices may lead to an emission path still in line with the 2° target. But even if a far-reaching global climate agreement is reached later in 2010, global resource extraction will continue to increase without additional international measures.     

THE ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE: A LITERATURE SURVEY

Literature on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is examined, focussing on the possibility that the EKC may be explained by trade patterns. If significant, this trade effect would cast doubt on the oft‐stated conclusion that economic growth automatically leads to environmental improvement. Research has been insufficient, although a number of promising approaches have been developed. Although evidence on the pollution‐haven hypothesis is mixed, there is enough to suggest that the EKC development path may not be available to today's developing countries. Other problems cast doubt on whether the EKC exists in any relevant sense at all.     

The Political Economy of Trade Liberalization and Environmental Policy

A pressure group model where environmental and industry lobby groups offer political support in return for favorable pollution tax policies is used to explain and predict the equilibrium pollution tax in sectors protected by tariffs. The political economy effects of trade liberalization are investigated. The pollution tax is shown to decrease if the lobbying effort by the environmental lobby decreases more rapidly than by the industry lobby ceteris paribus. The level of political conflict falls with trade liberalization. Pollution may increase because of a reduction of the pollution tax, and tax revenues may fall simultaneously as pollution increases.     

一般贸易与加工贸易对我国环境污染影响的比较分析

本文主要根据1980~2007年我国一般贸易和加工贸易出口额和环境污染(以工业三废排放量为代表)的数据,利用ARIMA模型,对一般贸易与加工贸易对环境污染影响的实证研究的关系进行探究,试图说明两者对于我国环境污染影响孰轻孰重的问题,并得出结论:一般贸易出口对工业废气污染的影响稍大,加工贸易出口对工业废水污染和工业固体废弃物污染的影响大。可见,和一般贸易相比,加工贸易与环境污染的关系密切。文章最后根据模型结果提出政策建议。     

Global market effects of alternative European responses to genetically modified organisms

Global Market Effects of Alternative European Responses to Genetically Modified Organisms. — Current debates about genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in agriculture reveal substantial differences in the perception of the associated risks and benefits. Genetically modified crop varieties allegedly provide farmers with agronomic benefits, but environmental, health and ethical concerns are also being raised. This paper discusses the ways in which the emergence of GMOs could lead to trade disputes between Western Europe and the United States. It then uses an empirical model of the global economy to quantify the effects on production, prices, trade patterns and national economic welfare of specific policy and consumer responses to GMOs in Western Europe.     

Regional cooperation and the environment: Do “dirty” industries migrate?

Regional Cooperation and the Environment: Do “Dirty” Industries Migrate? — This article develops an alternative method to investigate trade in embodied environmental factor services (EEFS) and applies it to bilateral trade between APEC economies. The issue of regional cooperation and the environment is addressed by investigating trade in EEFS between APEC economies in the last three decades. We observe a ‘cascading’ pattern in net exports of EEFS between East Asian economies. However, we do not observe a similar pattern in the trade between North American economies. The results should be interpreted with caution since the application of US sectoral pollution intensity data to other countries may lead to biased estimation of trade in EEFS.     

国际贸易产品污染转移的理论研究

各国国际分工、产业结构、能源利用效率以及贸易结构等方面的差异,必然造成国际贸易过程中存在污染排放转移问题。本文首先对国外学者对国际贸易产品污染转移的相关理论和实证研究文献进行了梳理,其次对学者对中国贸易品的污染转移研究文献进行总结。     

Ties Binding Asia,Europe and the USA

We investigate changes in Asia's regional and global trade linkages and their influence on macroeconomic relationships among Asia, Europe and the USA. We first document changes in tripartite trade patterns and discuss stylized facts about East Asia's trade structure, with particular focus on the role of China. China plays a critical role in the rapidly expanding intra‐Asian trade as an assembly and production center that supplies final goods for the advanced economies. However, China's trade shares in final goods with East Asia and in parts and components with Europe and the USA are rising, suggesting that the region's production chains are becoming increasingly integrated into the global business network. Empirical results from a panel vector autoregression model generally confirm increasingly mutual macroeconomic interdependence among East Asia, Europe and the USA. The findings suggest a future role for Asia as an important trade partner and balancing power in the world economy.     

Bilateral Trade, Openness, and Asset Holdings

This paper analyzes the relationship between bilateral trade flows, trade openness, and asset holdings in a three-country stochastic general equilibrium model. The three-country model set-up enables me to disentangle the effects of bilateral trade flows and trade openness on bilateral portfolio patterns. I find that both factors independently influence bilateral asset holdings. Higher bilateral trade as well as higher trade openness lead to a higher bilateral foreign asset position. Furthermore, the model shows an interaction effect between these two factors, where increasing trade openness reduces the influence of bilateral trade flows on asset holdings. I provide supporting empirical evidence for these theoretical findings using a data set on the geographical composition of international portfolio holdings.     

金融发展、国际分工与全球失衡

本文以金融发展的跨国差异为基本前提,通过建立包含资本中间品生产的宏观经济框架,分析了金融发展在国际分工模式形成过程中的作用和不同分工模式对全球贸易失衡的影响。根据模型可以得到两个基本结论:第一,金融发展差异是贸易产生的重要原因,金融发展差异提高通过加大相对价格差异提高了贸易量,但贸易收支是平衡的;第二,给定贸易与对外直接投资的成本形态,一旦金融发展水平超过某一特定临界值,国家间的分工就会由传统的水平分工转化为产品内垂直分工,贸易不平衡随之产生并逐渐扩大。利用分行业贸易数据对模型进行检验后认为模型具有合理性。     

加工贸易提高了环境全要素生产率吗——基于Luenberger生产率指数的研究

为系统考察加工贸易对经济增长、环境污染的影响,本文依托中国30个省份2000—2009年的数据测算出考虑坏产出的Luenberger生产率指数,并在此基础上对加工贸易的环境全要素生产率效应展开深入分析。研究表明,加工贸易和环境全要素生产率之间存在着显著的倒U形关系,当加工贸易占货物贸易的比重超过0．35时,加工贸易将对中国环境全要素生产率产生负效应。与此同时,出口和进口在环境全要素生产率的决定中有着完全相反的作用。在以上结论的基础上,本文提出了调整外贸模式、完善产业政策、协调区域发展的若干政策建议。     

国际贸易视角下的低碳经济

低碳经济已成为世界各国应对全球气候变化的战略选择,而实施低碳发展就必须对现有国际贸易理论和实践进行创新。本文对国际贸易背景下我国低碳发展的具体措施和关键环节进行了说明,指出我国应根据国情,加快技术进步,提高能源利用效率以及降低碳排放强度。结合当前国际上颇受争议的碳关税问题,我们认为,碳关税的征收不仅不能降低碳排放,减缓气候变化,相反,碳关税的实施有可能偏离最初的减排设想,加剧发展中国家的负担,导致发展中国家和发达国家出现贸易纠纷。为此,本文分析了碳关税的涵义及其对我国贸易活动和相关产业可能带来的冲击,强调我国应充分运用减排领域的比较优势尤其是联合国倡导的国际原则来解决今后贸易和环境领域可能出现的争端。     

中国进出口贸易的环境成本转移——基于投入产出模型的分析

经济与环境有着密切的联系,贸易的往来中隐含着环境成本在国际间的转移。新一轮国际分工中,中国进出口贸易不平衡,更多地扮演了生产者的角色,这是否意味着中国要对世界环境污染承担更大的责任,本文运用投入产出法计算中国42个部门生产的完全产污系数和进出口贸易中包含的污染物排放量,基于同一技术水平检验中国进出口贸易的环境成本转移情况。     

Environmental Duties and International Harmonization of Standards

Demands by domestic industries for protection from foreign competition aided by lower standards have led to proposals to set trade barriers conditional on the environmental policies of other countries. This article shows that the threat of such environmental duties can assist in achieving global efficiency when countries cannot commit to a negotiated environmental standard. In addition, this article shows that, in a repeated game framework, the enforcement of a free-trade agreement may require some convergence in environmental standards across countries when trade is driven by differences in such standards. However, it is also shown that it is more efficient to enforce a trade agreement by setting tariffs to partially offset differences in policy standards than to attempt to harmonize standards within environmental side agreements.     

Implications for Indonesia of Asia’s Rise in the Global Economy

This article projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We support our projections of the global economy by employing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources. Our baseline projection assumes that trade-related policies do not change in each region, but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. We use this baseline and its assumptions to analyse how potential global changes may affect the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the potential impacts of three policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, associated with the opening of Myanmar; the recently imposed export taxes in Indonesia on unprocessed primary products; and the implementation of Indonesia's new food law.     

河北省传统产业结构优化升级的对策研究

在河北省的经济结构中,传统产业如钢铁、建材、医药、石油化工、纺织等产业均占有重要地位。但这些行业普遍存在着能源消耗量高、资源消耗量大、环境污染严重、产品附加值较低、易受国内外贸易环境影响等问题。本文认为,河北省应结合所处的经济发展阶段,立足于传统优势产业的基础,通过深化专业分工、打造产业集群、加强技术创新、采用现代营销手段、加强管理创新等多种措施促进传统产业的发展。     

Estimating the economic cost of China's new desulfur policy during her gradual accession to WTO: The case of industrial SO2 emission

To understand the potential impacts of China's accession to WTO on her new desulphur policy (gradual reduction of 10% of annual SO₂ emission by 2005 with respect to that of 2000), we construct a CGE model in which SO₂ emission is directly linked to energy input consumption in production. The model equally considers the substitution possibility between energies of different SO₂ effluent ratios by including energy as labor and capital in the constant elasticity of transformation production function. The positive externality of trade in China's economy is also included. This model is then calibrated into a 55-sector Chinese SAM for the year 1997. Four policy simulations (Business as Usual, Openness policy only, desulfur policy only, and the combination of openness and desulfur policy) are made for the period from 1997 to 2005. The results show that the environmental impact of trade, though proven to be “negative”, stays rather modest. This is owing to the industrial composition transformation that deviates the specialization of the Chinese economy towards labor-intensive sectors under the new trade liberalization process. We do not find evidence for the “pollution haven” hypothesis. Seemingly ambitious, the new desulphur policy will only bring small economic growth loss. The pollution reduction objective will be realized mainly by substitution between polluting and less or non-polluting energies. The combination of trade liberalization and pollution control policy seems to give China more flexibility in adapting her economy to the new desulphur objective. Considering these different aspects together, the total economic loss due to the new desulphur policy will be limited to only − 0.26% under the presence of trade liberalization.