基于评分模型的信用卡交易欺诈风险防范研究

近年来,随着我国经济的快速增长,国内信用消费环境日趋成熟,信用卡业务规模增长迅速。截至2013年三季度,我国信用卡累计发行量达3.17亿张,信用卡交易金额6.65万亿元,同比增长49%。与此同时,同期信用卡欺诈损失金额达1.01亿元,其中伪卡、非面对面欺诈等交易类欺诈损失金额为0.66亿元,占比65.35%。欺诈风险成为影响信用卡产业长期健康发展的重要因素。     

堵上新农合欺诈的“黑洞”

新型农村合作医疗制度（简称新农合）从2003年在全国选择304个县（市）先行试点至今,截至2009年底,全国开展新农合的县（市、区）达到2716个,参合人口8.33亿,2009年筹资总额达944.4亿元,医疗基金支出922.9亿元;补偿支出受益7．6亿人次,其中住院补偿0．6亿人次,门诊补偿6．7亿人次。     

信用卡欺诈风险的防控

一、背景介绍随着我国信用卡市场的蓬勃发展,信用卡的风险也日益显现,信用风险、市场风险、操作风险发生的频度呈快速上升趋势。特别是2008年美国次贷危机以来,信用卡坏账率大幅攀升,操作风险中的欺诈风险增长速度非常快。与其他风险相比,欺诈风险的隐蔽性更强,造成的损失也更大,是信用卡业务中最直接、最难防的风险。其不仅严重扰乱了金融管理秩序,而且侵害银行消费信贷资金和持卡人的财产,对国家金融资产安全造成严重威胁。本文就我国信用卡欺诈风险状况进行了分析,并提出了如何有效防范和控制欺诈风险的相关策略。     

防范信用证欺诈风险之我见

信用证欺诈是指信用证受益人利用信用证的独立抽象性原则和单据交易原则 (即《ＵＣＰ5 0 0》所确立的信用证是独立于其所基于的商务合同之外的自足的法律文件 ,银行只审核单据而对单据所代表的货物或服务不负责任 )所带来的弊端 ,伪造与信用证要求相符的单据 ,或装运与单据描述不符的假冒、伪劣货物而骗取银行资金的行为。信用证机制被认为是国际商业界的天才创造 ,它保持了信用证的流通性。对受益人而言 ,信用证与现金几乎毫无二致。开证行向受益人开出信用证就等于把现金放到受益人的口袋里 ,开证行的付款是终局性的 ,不得行使追索权和抵…     

商业银行内部欺诈操作风险研究:基于博弈论的分析

本文建立银行内部检查者和内部欺诈者之间的博弈模型,对影响内部欺诈型操作风险的各种因素进行理论分析。模型表明,内部欺诈行为越难被发现,欺诈行为就越猖獗,而检查者所付出的成本也越高;内部激励惩罚在一定条件下才有效,而外部惩罚能够有效减少欺诈行为。实证分析进一步验证了模型得到的结论。最后,本文就防范此类操作风险提出了政策建议。     

电子银行业务欺诈风险的防范

要切实加强电子银行业务欺诈风险防范,牢固树立"安全重于泰山"、"案件事故零容忍"、"防范人人有责"的理念,进一步贯彻落实建立全面风险责任制,层层分解风险责任。     

基于EGARCH的VaR模型的风险测度研究

本文基于金融回报序列普遍表现出后尾和在均值处出现过度的峰度,利用EGARCH模型进行实证分析,通过样本数据,结合定量研究模型开展沪深指数风险的预测,给出股票市场的风险评估的合理建议.     

信用卡欺诈风险状况探析

随着我国信用卡业务的迅速发展和竞争的日趋激烈,各种专业信用卡诈骗集团、代办公司和套现公司等不断涌现,我国信用卡欺诈风险已进入多发、高发时期。本文就我国信用卡欺诈风险状况进行较深入的分析,并提出一些应对措施。     

Bayesian Fraud Risk Formula for Financial Statement Audits

In this article we extend the work of Loebbecke et al. (1989 ) and illustrate the use of an evidential reasoning approach for developing fraud risk analysis models under the Bayesian framework. New formulations facilitating fraud risk assessments are needed because decision tree approaches previously used to develop analytical models are not appropriate in complex situations involving several interrelated variables. To demonstrate the evidential reasoning approach, a fraud risk assessment formula is derived and illustrated. The fraud risk formula captures the impact of the presence or absence of and interrelationships between the three ‘fraud triangle’ risk factors: Incentives, Attitude and Opportunities. The formula includes the impact of risks and controls related to these three fraud risk factors as well as the impact of forensic audit procedures and relevant analytical and other procedures that provide evidence for the presence or absence of fraud. This formula may be used in audit practice both to help plan the audit and to assess fraud risk sequentially as audit evidence is obtained.     

The Effects of Fraud Risk and Management Representation on Auditors' Hypothesis Generation

Hypothesis generation is considered to be critical to the effectiveness and efficiency of diagnostic processes in auditing. Using a between-subjects experimental design, this work examines the impact of fraud risk and the availability of a non-misstatement management explanation on auditors' hypothesis generation performance. The context is when managers undertake analytical procedures at the planning stage of the audit. The results indicate that auditors are sensitive to increased fraud risk by generating more fraud hypotheses, while the number of misstatement hypotheses generated is not affected by fraud risk. The availability of a non-misstatement management explanation was found not to interfere with auditors' hypothesis generation performance, but facilitated the generation of proportionately more misstatement and fraud hypotheses from the same transaction cycle as that indicated by the management explanation. Together, these findings provide some insights on the sensitivity of auditors' hypothesis generation to fraud risk and whether this sensitivity could be undermined by the availability of management representations.     

民事欺诈与刑事诈骗的类型化区分

刑事诈骗是民事欺诈中的严重部分,两者最主要的区别在于行为人主观上是否具有非法占有目的。刑事诈骗的行为类型多样,具体构造也存在一定差异,非法占有目的的认定应结合诈骗行为的具体构造展开。交易型诈骗中,作为交易对价的基础事实是否存在对于非法占有目的认定具有决定意义。使用型诈骗的场合,应重视对行为人取得财物后的用途和资金走向的考察,以确定非法占有目的是否成立。财物用途和资金走向无法查清的案件,不能简单地认为属于事实不清、证据不足。资格型诈骗中,非法占有目的的认定应同时考虑行为人是否具有特定资格以及财物的具体用途。民事欺诈与刑事诈骗的区分还要注意欺诈事实是否属于核心或者主要事实以及欺诈程度等。     

Predicting fraud by investment managers

We test the predictability of investment fraud using a panel of mandatory disclosures filed with the SEC. We find that disclosures related to past regulatory and legal violations, conflicts of interest, and monitoring have significant power to predict fraud. Avoiding the 5% of firms with the highest ex ante predicted fraud risk would allow an investor to avoid 29% of fraud cases and over 40% of the total dollar losses from fraud. We find no evidence that investors receive compensation for fraud risk through superior performance or lower fees. We examine the barriers to implementing fraud prediction models and suggest changes to the SEC's data access policies that could benefit investors.     

A Framework for Identifying (and Avoiding) Fraudulent Financial Reporting*

This commentary analyzes the relationship of fraud risk assessments to other risk assessments by auditors. The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board notes that this is a problem area of current practice. Effective detection of fraudulent financial reporting requires an integrative accounting/auditing conceptual framework. As a result, this paper is as much about accounting theory as it is about auditing. To simplify the development of such an integrated framework, this paper uses an expanded risk model. This effectively results in a risk perspective on fraudulent financial reporting. There are many potential implications but the major findings are as follows. First, the study identifies the crucial role of benchmarks based on acceptable levels of risk to help differentiate between intentional and unintentional misstatements. Such differentiation is critical to successfully implementing the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants' Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) No. 99 and international standards ISA Nos. 240, 540, and 700. Second, the paper shows the importance of not allowing the major categories of risks identified here from getting too high. This paper explains the need to set acceptable levels of these risks, either by standard‐setters as a matter of broad policy, or by individual practitioners as part of the terms of specific engagements. I propose that a major factor in the concept of “present fairly” be the acceptable levels of accounting risks that are defined here, especially the risks due to intentional forecast errors. Third, this paper clarifies how the fraud risk of SAS No. 99, and similar international standards, relates to the current audit risk model framework.     

The effects of tone at the top and coordination with external auditors on internal auditors’ fraud risk assessments

Prior research suggests that internal auditors’ judgements are subject to management influence resulting in compromised risk assessments. This study investigates the effects of the tone at the top and coordination with external auditors on internal auditors’ fraud risk assessments. Results of an experiment involving 64 internal auditors indicate that when the tone at the top is poor, rather than favouring management, internal auditors report a higher risk of intentional misstatements and that coordination with external auditors can further reduce expectations of the incidence of intentional misstatements.     

数字时代中国老年人被诈骗研究——互联网与数字普惠金融的作用

本文采用具有全国代表性的中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,研究在我国数字化和老龄化背景下,老年人被诈骗情况的主要特征以及在不同维度的差异,并进一步挖掘其影响因素,探讨互联网使用和数字普惠金融发展在其中发挥的作用。主要发现如下:第一,虽然经济条件较好的老年人群体更容易成为诈骗目标,但被诈骗者接触后,相对脆弱的老年人群体更容易实际受骗,高达30%的老人在被诈骗接触后会实际遭受损失;第二,本文构造的防骗能力指数显示,经济欠发达省份的老年人防骗能力明显更低;第三,互联网的使用同时具有“曝露效应”和“学习效应”;第四,个体认知能力以及当地数字普惠金融发展程度是影响老年人是否实际被骗及损失大小的关键因素。最后,从异质性的角度看,使用数字技术的正面“学习效应”对信息相对匮乏的农村和女性老年人作用更大,超过了负面的“曝露效应”;数字普惠金融的发展程度对女性老年人的助力作用更为明显,但在农村地区的作用仍有待进一步提高。     

Cue usage in financial statement fraud risk assessments: effects of technical knowledge and decision aid use

This paper investigates the effects of technical knowledge and decision aid use on financial statement fraud risk assessments made by directors and students. More extreme fraud risk assessments are made when participants identify and process larger (smaller) numbers of diagnostic (non‐diagnostic) factors, with technical knowledge driving diagnostic factor identification. Significant decision aid‐technical knowledge effects are also found; decision aid use has a detrimental effect on high‐knowledge directors while improving performance in inexperienced, low‐knowledge students. These results suggest that although decision aids can afford gains in performance in inexperienced users, they can have unintended and/or paradoxical behavioural effects on experienced users.