THE IMPACT OF ANTI‐TERRORISM EXPENDITURE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND WELFARE

This paper examines the effects of increasing anti‐terrorism expenditure on economic growth rate and social welfare. It is shown that: (i) spending the least amount possible on anti‐terrorism expenditure will lead to a maximum economic growth rate; and (ii) to achieve maximum social welfare, the government should allocate its budget to anti‐terrorism expenditure. The results shed light on why the US government has chosen to uphold and pursue its anti‐terrorism policies in recent years to present day.     

The efficiency of social public expenditure in European countries: a two-stage analysis

Do European countries differ in the efficiency of their welfare policies? And which factors can account for such variability? To address these questions, we perform a two-stage efficiency analysis. First, based on a composite output indicator for social protection expenditure, we measure efficiency by means of the Free Disposable Hull and Data Envelopment Analysis techniques. Second, we perform an econometric analysis to identify the factors that can be associated to cross-country differences. We find that countries scoring higher efficiency have higher education and GDP levels, a smaller population size, a lower degree of selectivity of their welfare systems and a lower corruption level.     

The Federal Budget: How Much Difference Do Elections Make?

This article examines the budget process as a selection of priorities and how these priorities change over time with changing economic circumstances. Labor governments spend more on health, employment creation schemes, on welfare housing but less on industry assistance and on assisted immigration. The rate of growth of expenditure on social security decreased sharply after 1975. The revenue section examines how different governments have restructured the tax system. Broadly, the McMahon government pursued mildly progressive tax policies, the Whitlam government strongly progressive tax policies. Fraser's tax policies were regressive (except for taxpayers with children), with the Hawke government's policies in this area being nearer to Whitlam than to McMahon. Grouping budgets into election, pre-election and post-election budgets provides interesting contrasts. In terms of current (1984–85) prices the 'average' election budget produces tax cuts of $2300 million and expenditure increases of around $1 600 million. The two budgets which preceded the loss of office by the two Liberal Prime Ministers produced particularly large outlay increases. The categories of outlays which show evidence of being used as election-bait are identified.     

Does fiscal decentralization affect local governments' strategic behaviours? Evidence from South Korea

Local governments tend to show strategic behaviours when making their spending decisions. However, few studies have examined strategic behaviours when promoting fiscal decentralization. Thus, this study empirically examines the presence of strategic interactions in expenditure decisions in South Korea as well as how fiscal decentralization affects those interactions, using a panel data set from 2010 to 2017. The results demonstrate that a local government mimics other governments' spending when those governments' residents share similar age demographics. Moreover, local governments in South Korea engage in strategic interactions as their expenditure side becomes more decentralized. However, local governments tend to demonstrate less isomorphic behaviour in welfare spending decisions when they have higher revenue decentralization. This is because local governments have no motive to emulate other welfare policies, as the central government delegates the provision of social services to local governments by providing grants with strings attached.     

Intergenerational Transfer of Human Capital and Optimal Education Policy

We study the design of education policies (subsidies and public education) when parents' investment in education is motivated by warm‐glow altruism and determines the probability that a child has a high ability. The optimal subsidy is not necessarily positive. It is determined by two conflicting terms: a Pigouvian term (warm‐glow altruists do not properly account for the impact of education on future generations) and a “paternalistic” effect (the warm‐glow term may not be fully included in social welfare). Finally, total crowding out of private expenditure (for one of the types) by public education may be desirable.     

河北省建立农村社会保障制度成本效益分析

在现代化进程中，农村社会保障始终处于整个社会保障体系的边缘，农民长期游离于社会保障网络之外。改革的实践和理论都未能突破城市和农村两个独立的圈子，这造成了农村社会保障制度建设严重滞后的状况。建立农村社会保障制度必然要付出巨大的成本，包括推行成本和社会保障费用支出成本。但建立农村社会保障制度带来的社会效益也是非常明显，是难以用数据来衡量的。     

SOCIAL PROTECTION ACCOUNTS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The development of social protection accounts is described and the relationship between social security and welfare expenditure (as recorded in social protection accounts) and expenditures in the national accounts is discussed. Proposals are put forward for achieving co-ordination between social protection expenditure and expenditure recorded in the national accounts, and these are illustrated by reference to Irish data. The future development of social protection accounts by the inclusion of fiscal benefits, which are not recorded in the national accounts, is also considered. Finally some references are made to the use of the social protection accounts and the development of data relating o the numbers of persons covered by social protection and the numbers of beneficiaries.     

开放条件下粮食政策实施的福利经济分析

本文研究目的在于建立一个结合关税配额制度、粮食补贴政策和生态退耕政策的粮食部门均衡模型GSEM,来模拟比较不同政策调整对粮食部门社会福利影响,从而对存在明显目标冲突的粮食政策进行调整优化.研究结论显示,关税配额制度和生态退耕政策会减少粮食部门社会福利,粮食补贴政策可以提高粮食部门福利,能够弥补市场开放对生产者福利损失,其中直接补贴政策中的面积补贴方式最有效率.     

Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis

Abstract

Using panel data unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, as well as estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels such as the full modified OLS, this paper re-examines the long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between GDP and social security expenditure in a bivariate model, employing data on 25 OECD countries from 1980 to 2001. Our cointegration test results show strong evidence in favour of the existence of a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between GDP and social security expenditure after allowing for a heterogeneous country effect. Regarding the panel-based error correction model, we find that GDP and social security expenditure lack short-run causality, but reveal the existence of long-run bidirectional causality. This shows that, in the long run, economic growth must be based on a social welfare policy that should be carried out, and economic growth can facilitate contiguous development in a social welfare policy. Lastly, we also provide evidence to support that social security expenditure can affect growth through the savings and human capital accumulation in OECD countries.     

Measuring the Welfare Effects of Price Changes: A Convenient Parametric Approach

This paper shows how compensating and equivalent variations, and the equivalent income, resulting from a set of price changes can be calculated. A linear expenditure system is estimated for each of a range of total expenditure groups using cross-sectional budget data. The measures of welfare change can be used to determine the effect on the welfare of individuals in different income groups. Alternative social welfare functions can be used to evaluate the resulting distribution of equivalent income. The parametric approach is particularly useful where few data are available     

R&D competition between public and private sectors

We investigate a mixed market where a welfare-maximizing public research institute competes against profit-maximizing private firms. We investigate R&D competition by using a standard model of patent races where each firm chooses both its innovation size and R&D expenditure. We find that the innovation size (R&D expenditure) chosen by the public institute is too small (too large) from the viewpoint of social welfare, respectively, and so the government should control the public institute appropriately. We also discuss the welfare implications of privatization of public research institutes.     

社会固定投资与居民福利量化关系模型分析

固定资本投资是流动资本投资的前提和基础，也是整个社会经济规模扩张与发展所必须依赖的重要物质基础。现期厂商的固定资本投资会直接导致本期总需求的增加，在保持总供求平衡的前提下，政府本期的调控货币投放规模将会相应减小，从而影响本期社会弱势居民的福利水平。     

培训产业一体化发展的案例分析

在我国培训市场上，培训学校无论在其成立，还是随后的运作上，都应该符合国家政策法规的规定，应该站在长远的角度来审视自己，而不是短期的高收益。专业化教学才能造就培训市场竞争的优势。专业化的内涵是专业、精益、富有特色，外延是全面地、深入地、持续地体现品牌效应。我国应试培训产业在行业集中度相对较高的情况下，培训学校必须进一步扩大企业规模，形成经济规模壁垒，必要资本壁垒、资源占有壁垒或是产品差别壁垒，树立良好的企业形象，提高产业进入与退出成本，连锁经营的规模化道路是必然的选择。     

Are OECD policy recommendations for public sector reform biased against welfare states? Evidence from a new database

Policy advice by the OECD has long been at the heart of academic debates on welfare state reform, with frequent claims questioning the ideological orientation of recommendations. This paper constructs an indicator of perceived reform need for 24 countries, quantifying the policy advice contained in the OECD Economic Surveys around 1985, 1995, and 2005. These recommendations describe a policy consensus that is based on competition, work incentives, monetary reform, fiscal discipline, and labor market reform. Empirically, perceived need for reform is well explained by preceding levels of economic freedom. In particular, countries with more government intervention, lower property rights protection, and more regulation are perceived to have a bigger reform need. In turn, perceived reform need has no explanatory power for subsequent changes in social expenditure and welfare state entitlements. Only in countries with right wing governments, perceived reform need might be followed by marginal reductions in welfare state entitlements, but definitely not in social expenditure.     

Measurement of Changes in Economic Welfare in India: 1970–2001

This paper provides time series estimates of measures of economic welfare, inequality, decile class specific true cost of living index and poverty measures based on 20 rounds of National Sample Survey data for the period 1970–2001. It has estimated piece-wise Linear Expenditure System (LES) for very poor, moderately poor, non-poor low and non-poor high expenditure groups for rural as well as urban areas. Money metric utility for deciles are derived from the money metric utility function and social welfare index is constructed by aggregating metric utility of the deciles. Using social welfare index as well as real per capita consumption, the paper analyses the changes in economic welfare over the three decades. Using conventional measures, the paper analyses the changes in poverty and inequality during 1970–2001. The paper also provides estimates of the welfare effects of commodity prices.

     

Optimal Pollution Abatement Under ‘Sustainable’ and Other Social Time Preferences

This paper analyses optimal pollution abatement expenditure and the pricing of pollution under alternative social time preferences, including ‘sustainable’ preferences, defined as those that are consistent with two axioms of sustainable development introduced by Chichilnisky (Land Econ 73:467–491, 1997). These axioms state essentially that neither the welfare of present nor future generations ought to be favoured over the other in determining the socially optimal path of economic development. The method is to calibrate a modified Ramsey model of optimal global growth and saving, where pollution is generated by the global output of goods and services. Pollution in turn reduces output. The simulation results illustrate how sensitive the optimal pollution price and abatement expenditure can be over time to assumptions about the social time preference rate. They also show that ‘sustainable’ preferences impose a lower burden on future generations in terms of the pollution price and abatement expenditure. Hence there is a case for governments to make explicit their value judgments about intergenerational welfare, in the context of their notion of sustainable development, when setting target pollution abatement levels and pollution prices over time.     

Crowding-out and crowding-in effects of the components of government expenditure

This article examines the effects of disaggregated government expenditure on investment using fixed- and random-effect methods. Using the government budget constraint, the analysis explores the effects of tax- and debt-financed expenditure for the full sample, and for subsamples of developed and developing countries. In general, tax-financed government expenditure crowds out more investment than debt-financed expenditure. Expenditure on social security and welfare reduces investment in all samples while expenditure on transport and communication induces private investment in developing countries.     

Specifications of Social Welfare in Economic Studies of Climate Policy: Overview of Criteria and Related Policy Insights

An important assumption in economic studies of climate policy is the social welfare function. This paper shows that applying distinct decision or social welfare criteria can result in different optimal policies of climate control, notably if climate change impacts are uncertain. First, decision criteria in current climate-economic studies are reviewed. Next, the most important alternatives are discussed, including their (mathematical) formalization and incorporation in economy-climate models. Most of these alternative criteria suggest more stringent climate policies to be optimal than the standard discounted utilitarianism approach. However, several important welfare criteria have not or hardly seen any application in the economic analysis of climate policy. We conclude that there is clear need for systematic research on this theme, for which the current review provides a solid basis.     

Social evaluations when populations differ in size

Assessments of “social welfare” do not usually take into account population sizes. This can lead to serious social evaluation flaws, particularly in contexts in which policies can affect demographic growth. We develop in this paper a little‐known though ethically attractive approach to correcting the flaws of traditional social evaluations, an approach that is sensitive to population sizes and that is based on critical‐level generalized utilitarianism (CLGU). Traditional CLGU is extended by considering arbitrary orders of welfare dominance and ranges of “poverty lines,” as well as values for the “critical level” of how much a life must be minimally worth to contribute to social welfare. We apply these social evaluation methods to rank Canada across 1976, 1986, 1996 and 2006 and to estimate normatively and statistically robust lower and upper bounds of critical levels over which these rankings can be made.     

Is tied aid bad for the recipient countries?

This paper examines the welfare effects of the exclusivity of foreign aid taking consideration of donor countries' strategic and self-interested economic motivations. Based on an oligopolistic model with strategic interactions between firms and governments providing foreign aid, we demonstrate that a higher exclusivity of foreign aid, taking the form of tied aid, increases the equilibrium amount of aid and the social welfare of the recipient country when the foreign aid policies are decided in a non-cooperative fashion between donor countries. However, when donor countries coordinate aid policies to maximize joint-welfare including recipient country's welfare, the lower exclusivity of foreign aid, taking the form of untied aid, will increase the equilibrium amount of aid and the global social welfare. The results implicate that when a credible enforcement mechanism for the cooperative regime for foreign aid is not available, tied aid is welfare dominant policy for both donor and recipient countries than untied aid.