The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

Distance to Frontier and New Import Growth

In a panel‐data study involving product‐level import data for 48 developing countries that underwent substantial trade liberalization between 1989 and 2001, this study finds that the growth of trade in new goods imported following major trade liberalization is related to the state of technology that existed just before liberalization. The study develops two new measures of the extensive margin. Findings indicate that greater is the distance of a country from the world technology frontier, the faster is its growth of new goods imports. This indicates a higher cost of trade protection for countries further away from the world technology frontier.     

The Moral Hazard Play: A Review of The Chastening: Inside the Crisis that Rocked the Global Financial System and Humbled the IMF

We estimate the influence of trade preferences granted by Argentina on the origin of its imports. We try to identify if changes in Argentina's trade policy toward a set of countries had a differential effect, depending on whether goods were already traded, or on the contrary, if tariff changes affected mostly imports of new goods. We distinguish between the effects of changing tariffs and changing trade preferences. The econometric evidence shows that the effect of changes in tariff preferences on the probability of Argentina importing from other Asociación Latinoamericana de Integración (ALADI) members has been rather small, with most of the effect being explained by changes in tariff rates levied on imports from these countries. This result is stronger in the case of imports from Brazil.     

Developmental aspects of China��s trade pattern: The role of imported intermediate goods

This paper studies the relationship between China’s trade and its economic development. More than two centuries ago Adam Smith argued that it is the use of imported intermediate goods that constitutes the vector through which openness improves productivity. Imported intermediate goods can relieve what would otherwise be key constraints allowing faster growth, together with better human development. While China’s trade reform is often related to its productivity growth, there has been remarkably little attention to the relationship between imports and productivity growth at the industry-sectoral level. Our paper examines the sector-specific impact of intermediate goods utilizing a time series for the share of imported intermediate goods in each sector derived from our model calculations. Our study indicates that imported intermediate goods are playing an important role in the growth of Chinese productivity.     

Endogenous Imitation and Technology Absorption in a Model of North–South Trade

Abstract

This paper considers the transfer of technology from the North to the South that occurs through trade in high-technology goods and explicitly models the ‘reverse-engineering’ process that allows the South to assimilate new technologies. A key finding of this study is that the South's rate of growth is dictated by the size of the country's human capital, which determines its absorptive capacity and its ability to assimilate knowledge from the North. We find that while a Southern country that is poor in human capital can only imitate, Southern countries that possess sufficiently large human capital endowments, beyond a certain threshold, signal the onset of innovation. We also find that the North enjoys a higher rate of innovation and growth with trade than without. North's gains are the highest when it trades with a human-capital ‘poor’ South, because imitation increases South's demand for Northern intermediates. But trade with the Southern countries that are human capital rich (and therefore involved in innovation), dampens their demand for Northern imports, adversely affecting North's growth. The model predicts growth convergence between the North and a South that is well passed the threshold for innovation.     

On the Causality between Trade Credits and Imports: Evidence and Possible Implication for Trade Penalties on Debt Defaults

Abstract

This study investigates the association between trade credits and imports of developing countries. Made available by its creditors, the main function of trade credits is to facilitate cross-border transactions of goods and services. This study finds that the reliance of imports on trade credits varies across regions and income: towards the end of the 1990s, the trade credits to imports ratio ranged from 0.20 for East Asia & the Pacific to 0.87 for Africa, and from 0.24 for high-income countries to 0.79 for low-income countries. Applying panel and cross-country estimation, we find that past trade credits help predict current imports, but past imports do not alter the future path of trade credits. Further, the positive association between trade credits and imports is larger for countries more dependent upon trade credits. The findings support the notion that countries make debt repayments to avoid any potential disruption on the line of trade credits. We also find that the trade credits penalty could materialize within less than two quarters.     

Growth,expectations and tariffs

We present a growth model of international trade in which expectations about profitability and growth influence innovation and investment. Adaptive learning dynamics determine transition paths for countries with differing structural parameters. Countries limiting trade by tariffs on imports of capital goods can experience gains in growth and perceived utility for a finite time, whereas the rest of the world is adversely affected. Asymmetric gains persist longer when structural advantages of the country applying tariffs are larger. Substantial differences in levels of innovation, output and utility can appear within our asymmetric country setting.     

Trade and Tradability: Exports, Imports, and Factor Markets in the Salter-Swan Model

We extend the Salter-Swan model to include both factor markets and semi-traded goods. In our model, changes in relative factor prices depend on changes in world commodity prices, factor endowments, and the trade balance. In contrast, only changes in world commodity prices can affect factor prices in the neoclassical trade model. The inclusion of semi-traded goods weakens the magnification effect in both the Stolper-Samuelson and Rybczynski theorems. When imports and domestic goods are poor substitutes, a characteristic of some commodities in developing countries, the sign of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem is reversed.     

The export price index with the effect of variety and an empirical analysis

The standard international trade models predict that economic growth induces decreasing export prices. Korea has recorded sustainable economic and export growth, and its export prices have been deteriorating over the last decades. Unlike the standard assumption of one good per country, the new theoretical approach by Krugman [Krugman, P. (1980) ‘Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and Pattern of Trade’. American Economic Review 70, 950–959, Krugman, P. (1989) ‘Differences in income elasticities and trends in real exchange rates’. European Economic Review, 33, 1055–1085.], and Helpman and Krugman [Helpman, E. and Krugman, P. (1985), Market structure and foreign trade: increasing returns, imperfect competition, and international economy, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.] takes into account varieties of goods produced in each country. And many studies suggest that traditional estimates without variety effect have been rather under-stated. Therefore this paper develops a proper modeling for quantifying the impact of export variety on an exact export price index. Throughout the period (1984–2000), the conventional export price index without variety effect leads to under-state Korea's export price by 89.3%. This paper shows that the fall in Korean export prices has been offset by the effect of export variety. This paper emphasizes the effect of export variety on international trade.     

Factor Endowments,Democracy, and Trade Policy Divergence

We develop a stochastic model of electoral competition in order to study the economic and political determinants of trade policy. We model a small open economy with two tradable goods, each of which is produced using a sector‐specific factor (e.g., land and capital) and another factor that is mobile between these tradable sectors (labor); one nontradable good, which is also produced using a specific factor (skilled labor), and an elected government with the mandate to tax trade flows. The tax revenue is used to provide local public goods that increase the economic agents’ utility. We use this general equilibrium model to explicitly derive the ideal policies of the different socioeconomic groups in society (landlords, industrialists, labor, and skilled workers). We then use those ideal policies to model the individual probabilistic voting behavior of the members of each of these socioeconomic groups. We use this model to shed light on how differences in the comparative advantages of countries explain trade policy divergence between countries as well as trade policy instability within countries. We regard trade policy instability to mean that, in equilibrium, political parties diverge in terms of the political platforms they adopt. We show that in natural resource (land)–abundant economies with very little capital, or in economies that specializes in the production of manufactures, parties tend to converge to the same policy platform, and trade policy is likely to be stable and relatively close to free trade. In contrast, in a natural resource–abundant economy with an important domestic industry that competes with the imports, parties tend to diverge, and trade policy is likely to be more protectionist and unstable.     

The Energy-Bias of North–South Technology Spillovers: A Global,Bilateral, Bisectoral Trade Analysis

We examine variations in the South–North ratios (emerging vs. industrialized countries) of energy and labor intensities driven by imports. We use the novel World input-output database that provides bilateral and bisectoral data for 40 countries and 35 sectors for 1995–2009. We find South–North convergence of energy and labor intensities, an energy bias of import-driven convergence and no robust difference between imports of intermediate and investment goods. Accordingly, trade helps emerging economies follow a ‘green growth’ path, and trade-related policies can enhance this path. However, the effects are economically small and require a long time horizon to become effective. Trade-related policies can become much more effective in selected countries and sectors: China attenuates labor intensity via imports of intermediate goods above average. Brazil reduces energy intensity via imports of intermediate and investment goods above average. Production of machinery as an importing sector in emerging countries can immoderately benefit from trade-related reductions in factor intensities. Electrical equipment as a traded good particularly decreases energy intensity. Machinery particularly dilutes labor intensity. Our main results are statistically highly significant and robust across specifications.     

Savings, Volume of Trade, and Growth

This paper develops a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous growth to analyze the effects of international trade on steady-stage growth. The two countries differ both in preferences and in technologies. It is shown first that both countries cannot simultaneously experience increases in consumption growth from trade. It is then shown that trade can increase output growth for both countries if the attitude towards saving matches the change in the terms of trade in each country. A country facing a decline (rise) in its output price grows faster if its intertemporal elasticity of substitution is sufficiently low (high).     

Universal Dumping of Homogeneous Products

Contrary to predictions from traditional comparative advantage analysis, a class of models with imperfect competition predicts intra-industry trade in homogeneous goods. Brander and Krugman offer a model with two countries and one firm in each country which generates the outcome that both firms dump into the export market (reciprocal dumping). The present paper determines the extent to which higher dimensionality alters this outcome by introducing a model with several firms in each of several countries. It is shown that dumping is universal. Thus, whenever trade occurs dumping occurs.     

Growth, Expansion of Markets, and Income Elasticities in World Trade

The Houthakker–Magee effect implies that a country facing unfavorable income elasticities in trade must either grow at a slower rate than its trading partners or experience a trend worsening of the current account and/or depreciation of the real exchange rate. Krugman (1989 ) first documented the existence of a "45-degree rule" under which income elasticities are systematically related to growth rates. I develop a model which is a generalization of Krugman (1989 ) in several dimensions (including intertemporal). The intertemporal assumption of equal consumption growth for individuals across countries and the assumption of no intertemporal trade can be viewed as two extreme benchmarks. Empirical tests of the various 45-degree rules suggest that it is misleading to treat income elasticities as structural, as is commonly done in forecasts of current account movements. The data also seem to be more consistent with the benchmark of no intertemporal trade than that of complete intertemporal trade.     

Import to invest: Impact of cultural goods on cross-border mergers and acquisitions

Existing studies have demonstrated the necessities of formal institutions and negativity of cultural distance in international investments. Surprisingly, China’s exponential increase of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and its low-quality institutions and distinct cultural norms contradict these studies. This paper aims to tackle this puzzle by examining the role of cultural imports in cross-border M&As. Our empirical evidence suggests that the trade of cultural goods significantly increases the volume and realized economic gains of M&As from importing to exporting countries. Our results are robust to alternative measures and an instrumental variable approach. On exploring potential channels, we find that imported cultural goods could drive cultural convergence between countries and also mitigate the adverse effect of cultural distance on merger outcomes. We further show that cultural imports could help firms in overcoming contractual barriers at target countries. This paper provides practical implications for cross-border investments in the current world with intensified cultural conflicts.     

“十二五”时期我国对外贸易的转变

"十二五"规划实施时期,国际国内的新形势对我国对外贸易提出了新的要求。为了实现协调和持续发展,对外贸易必须实现一系列的转变:由注重出口规模增长转向进出口并重;由以发达国家为主要贸易对象转向贸易对象的多元化;由以货物贸易为主转向货物贸易和服务贸易并重;由单一地打破贸易保护转变为通过多种方式减少贸易摩擦。     

Growing Trade in Intermediate Goods: Outsourcing,Global Sourcing,or Increasing Importance of MNE Networks?

Growth in trade is often seen to have played a dominant role in integrating national economies. Analyses of this role have, however, almost exclusively been based on trade in final goods. This paper attempts to address this problem by analyzing recent growth in intermediate goods. Three possible causes are posited for this growth: outsourcing, global sourcing, and the increasing importance of MNE networks. These are examined in two analytical frameworks: one using OECD input–output table data and one using German time‐series data. Results from both frameworks give strong support to the hypothesis that international production plays a great role in explaining the strong increase in intermediate inputs imports of developed countries. The evidence for the hypothesis that the increasing importance of the MNE network causes the growing trade in intermediate goods is especially strong. The outsourcing hypothesis receives also some support.     

Intrafirm trade and the developing countries: an assessment of the data

The state of general empirical knowledge of the extent of and trends in intrafirm international trade are surveyed with attention concentrated on United States and Canadian data sources. Focus is on conceptual and definitional distinctions, U.S. trade with U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates, U.S. related-party imports, international subcontracting and value added tariffs, aggregative data from individual developing countries, and customs documents as micro-level data soruces. In this effort to outline the reasons for the growing concern with the phenomenon of intrafirm trade and to summarize the most readily available data on its nature and growth, the following were among the important points made: 1) it is essential to arrive at clear and uniform definitions as to what is meant by "intrafirm trade"; 2) the share of U.S. non-petroleum imports from developing countries which originates in majority-owned foreign affiliates of U.S. firms is declining; 3) very high proportions of some U.S. imports from developing countries originate with "related parties," and there are frequently large differences between import unit values in related-party trade and those in non-related-party trade; 4) international subcontracting, as indicated by the usage of value added tariff provisions, continues to be a rapidly growing element in manufactured goods trade between the U.S. and developing countries; and 5) further data should be collected and empirical research conducted.     

The Transmission of Sustained Growth through the Terms of Trade in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper develops a two‐country model of endogenous growth and international trade in intermediate goods. In autarky just one of the economies enjoys sustained growth. The trade situation may be characterized by complete specialization of both countries, or by incomplete specialization of the growing economy. In either case, trade transmits perpetual growth to the stagnant economy because of the permanent improvements in its terms of trade. The existence of a non‐reproducible factor in the growing economy is crucial to ensure propagation of growth. Moreover, under incomplete specialization countries converge in per capita income. This result relies on two assumptions. First, there must be a large enough share of world income to pay for the input in which the stagnant economy has comparative advantage. Second, all technologies producing intermediate goods should be equally intensive in the non‐reproducible factor.     

Variety-skill complementarity: a simple resolution of the trade-wage inequality anomaly

The Stolper–Samuelson theorem predicts that the relative wage of high-skilled to low-skilled labor will increase in the high-skill abundant US but decrease in low-skill abundant Mexico after trade liberalization, while it actually began to rise in both countries in the late 1980s. We present a simple resolution of this “trade-wage inequality anomaly” in a model of variety trade. Variety trade increases the variety of intermediate goods used by the final good. If the varieties and high-skilled labor are complements, the skill premium rises in both countries. This linking of imports of new foreign varieties—the extensive margin—to wage inequality is compatible with evidence. Our numerical examples illustrate that small amounts of variety trade can produce a significant increase in relative wage.