An Empirical Study of the Adoption of Sophisticated Capital Budgeting Practices and Decision-Making Effectiveness

This paper examines the trend towards greater sophistication in investment selection techniques and control processes, and their impact on capital budgeting decision effectiveness. Based on a sample of 100 large UK firms, the study examines the capital budgeting practices employed over an 11-year period. Very significant increases in the uptake of sophisticated investment methods are reported, particularly in the analysis of project risk. These developments are partly explained by the rapid developments in computing within capital budgeting. Clear evidence is found to suggest that senior finance executives believe that the adoption of sophisticated investment practices gives rise to improved effectiveness in the evaluation and control of large capital projects.     

Beyond Panglossian theory: strategic capital investing in a complex adaptive world

Traditional capital budgeting theory (as an extension of financial economics) is characterized as Panglossian because of its suggestion that rational market outcomes produce the best of all possible worlds. During the last two decades, practice-oriented theorists have increasingly been moving from algorithmic capital budgeting techniques to a focus on capital investment strategy. Also, during the last twelve years, economics researchers at the Santa Fe Institute (SFI) have scrapped the dubious assumptions of neoclassical economics and have turned to complex adaptive systems theory for a more realistic portrayal of the economy. This paper explores various SFI studies and their implications for capital investment theory and capital investment strategy. Brian Arthur's theory of increasing returns undermines the notion that capital budgeting techniques can be counted on to generate economic efficiency. His theory further suggests that the high tech, knowledge-based sectors of the economy inherently produce outcomes that are too unpredictable for the meaningful application of traditional capital budgeting techniques. Studies by David Lane and his colleagues suggest that the identity of agents, the attributes of artifacts and the possibilities for action tend to be emergent phenomena that are generated by the interactions of agents. These considerations suggest a form of strategic action that focuses on process. Finally, it is argued that the artificial life and other SFI types of computer simulation models are potentially useful tools for the study of strategic capital investment decisions.     

The evolution of the application of capital budgeting techniques in enterprises

This study examines the evolution of the application of capital budgeting techniques. Previous studies mostly used cross-sectional inquiries to understand the capital budgeting practices of firms. Only a few researchers have undertaken longitudinal studies to generalise the findings of the individual cross-sectional studies to the wider population and to identify the emerging trends in the use of capital budgeting techniques (CBTs). This longitudinal study surveys 83 studies of capital budgeting practices across firms in India, South Africa, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (USA) for the period from 1966 to 2016. The findings show that six capital budgeting techniques, namely, the net present value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR), the payback period (PBP), the accounting rate of return (ARR), the return on investment (ROI) and the real option valuation (ROV), are the most popular methods for evaluating capital investments. Of these techniques, the ROV is the least used, and a general lack of familiarity with this technique and its complexity are the most commonly cited reasons for not using it. Another method that is used less than the first four techniques is the ROI. However, this technique is of growing significance and is mainly used in the UK, followed by the USA, South Africa, and India. Firms in the USA and UK have increased their use of the IRR as a primary method for evaluating capital projects and have retained the PBP as an ancillary technique to strengthen the available information when evaluating capital projects. Firms in India and South Africa are increasingly excluding both the PBP and ARR methods and are increasingly using the NPV when evaluating capital investments. Although this development is in line with the theory, it limits the scope of the available information when evaluating capital projects.     

Management Compensation and Payback Method in Capital Budgeting: A Path Analysis

While discounted cash flow techniques, such as net present value, are the primary normative models of capital budgeting recommended by finance theory, our survey suggests that one of the so-called ‘naive methods’, the payback (PB) criterion, is widely used in practice. About 85% of the responding firms make some use of the payback criterion. Almost 50% of the responding firms indicate that the payback method plays a relatively important role in capital budgeting decisions, and the degree of the importance varies among firms. This study uses path analysis to empirically identify links between the use of payback and management compensation contracts. Controlling for uncertainty in estimating future cash flows and firm size, we find that the use of the payback method is positively related to the degree to which management compensation depends on accounting earnings. Furthermore, this study finds two indirect links between management compensation and the use of payback. The more management compensation depends on accounting earnings: the more important management perceives the earnings objective and, consequently, the greater the use of the payback method; and the less important management perceives the shareholder wealth objective and, consequently, the greater the use of the payback method. We conclude that owner-management conflict and management's self-interest behaviour induced by employment contracts are factors that promote the use of payback method.     

Investment appraisal practices: A comparative study of conventional and Islamic financial institutions

This paper compares the use of capital budgeting techniques of conventional and Islamic financial institutions, using data obtained from a survey of 105 conventional and Islamic financial institutions. Our main aim is to analyze the use of capital budgeting and risk techniques by the two types of financial institutions from a comparative perspective to see whether prohibition of riba makes a difference. Standard difference-of-means tests of the mean scores methods were used to test the hypotheses of the study. The results reveal a number of important conclusions. First, discounted cash flow techniques are found to be more widely used by financial institutions, and among those techniques internal rate of return is the most common. Second, Islamic financial institutions are found to adopt traditional methods that do not comply with the principles of Islamic Sharia'a. Third, a huge gap is found between the theory base of Islamic institutions and some of the practices of those institutions. Fourth, firms' characteristics, such as size, listing status, sources of revenue and government ownership, have some impact on their decisions to adopt capital budgeting criteria, methods of estimating costs of capital and risk. Finally, the decisions to select particular capital budgeting techniques, cost of capital estimation methods, and risk assessments are partly related to the characteristics of the chief financial officers.     

THE DETERMINATION AND USE OF INVESTMENT HURDLE RATES IN CAPITAL BUGETING: A SURVEY OF AUSTRALIAN PRACTICE*

This paper summarizes the results of a survey, conducted in 1979, which investigated Australian practice in the determination and use of investment hurdle rates, and in certain other areas of capital budgeting which impinge on hurdle rate practice. The study suggests a significant closure of the gap between theory and practice in capital budgeting in terms of the use of discounted cash flow techniques of capital project evaluation, and in terms of the use of some tools of finance such as the weighted average cost of capital. However, many developments in the determination and use of investment hurdle rates appear to have taken place at a slower rate, and it is possible that some “back-tracking” may be required in order to improve practice.     

Net working capital investment and capital budgeting analysis: Some pedagogical insights

Net working capital (NWC) investment, as a factor in discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, receives little attention in the capital budgeting literature and accounting textbooks. The purpose of this paper is to explore the ways in which this important component of the analysis can be intregrated into the classroom and thus add to the student's overall understanding of capital budgeting. Four areas are discussed: (1) the significance of NWC investment in capital budgeting analysis, (2) the opportunity cost nature of the NWC investment, (3)measurement of the components of the NWC investment, and (4) use of the NWC investment to help restore the bottom line in DCF analysis to a pure cash flow basis. Integration of the fourth point into the topic of capital budgeting is found to be a convenient way to reinforce the student's understanding of the statement of cash flows.     

Capital budgeting,valuation and personal taxes

This paper examines the relationship between before tax and after tax valuation and uses this to examine the literature on capital budgeting and capital structure in the presence of corporate and personal taxes, a literature which features a bewildering array of valuation formulae. Some of the variation between such formulae naturally arises out of variations in underlying model assumptions; however, in several cases, it arises because there are (by no means obvious) internal inconsistencies. The potential magnitude of the errors that might arise in a capital budgeting context is then explored through sensitivity analysis.     

A generalized coherent risk measure: The firm's perspective

This note extends the concept of a coherent risk measure to make it more consistent with a firm's capital budgeting perspective. A coherent risk measure defines the risk of a portfolio to be that amount of cash that must be added to the portfolio such that it becomes acceptable to a regulator. As such, a coherent risk measure implicitly assumes that the firm has already made its capital budgeting decision. Except for a cash infusion, the portfolio composition remains unchanged. We propose a generalized version of a coherent risk measure that also allows the portfolio composition to change as well. Once the investment decisions are fixed, our measure collapses to a coherent risk measure.     

Do organizations adopt sophisticated capital budgeting practices to deal with uncertainty in the investment decision?: A research note

This study examines the impact of uncertainty on the sophistication of capital budgeting practices. While the theoretical applications of sophisticated capital budgeting practices (defined as the use of real option reasoning and/or game theory decision rules) have been well documented, empirical evidence on the factors that affect the importance and use of these sophisticated capital budgeting practices is scarce. I investigate the relation between specific uncertainties and sophisticated capital budgeting practices in 189 Dutch organizations. The empirical results show that sophisticated capital budgeting involves the use of multiple tools and procedures (such as Monte Carlo simulations, certainty equivalents, Game Theory decision rules and Real Option Reasoning). An increase in financial uncertainty is associated with the use and importance of sophisticated capital budgeting practices. Finally, size and industry are also related to the use and importance of sophisticated capital budgeting practices.     

Capital Structure, Information Acquisition and Investment Decisions in an Industry Framework

This paper analyzes the relationship between a firm's capital structure and its information acquisition prior to capital budgeting decisions. It is found that low-growth industries can sustain a large number of levered firms. In these industries, leverage is negatively related to a firm's incentive to acquire information during the capital budgeting process. In contrast, high-growth industries only sustain a small number of levered firms. In these industries, levered firms acquire more information than all-equity financed firms. The model yields empirical predictions regarding the effects of leverage on the expected amount and the volatility of corporate investment. While leverage does not affect firm value, highly levered firms generate a more volatile cash flow than firms with low debt levels.     

AN ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES CURRENTLY EMPLOYED BY LARGE U.S. CORPORATIONS

Economic conditions have placed increased importance upon rigorous financial analysis. In order to determine which analytical techniques are currently emp loyed by management, a questionnaire was sent to each fm on the May 1980, FORTUNE 500 list. The researchsought to establish a profile of the respondents' organizational structure and to identify the primary procedures used in risk assessment, working capital management, capital budgeting, and operations research modeling. The results do suggest a basic profile of the more active employers of analytical techniques. Relatively sophisticated capital budgeting procedures appear to be accepted across most industries, and many firms support their decision making with a "package" of formal tools.     

Factors affecting biasing of capital budgeting cash flow forecasts: evidence from the hotel industry

This study contributes to a neglected aspect of the capital budgeting process, namely, the proposal development stage, which is primarily concerned with project cash flow estimation. Given that the deployment of sophisticated selection techniques is severely undermined when directed to input data suffering from bias, it is surprising that minimal empirical research has sought to explore for antecedent factors associated with biasing of capital budgeting cash flow forecasts. This paper reports the findings of a survey concerned with determining factors associated with biasing of capital budget cash flow forecasts in hotels that are mediated by a management contract. Statistically significant support is provided for the view that higher levels of biasing of capital budget cash flow forecasts occur in the presence of: high emphasis attached to the payback investment appraisal method; deficient reserve funds for furniture, fittings, and equipment (FF&E); low operator accessibility to reserve funds for FF&E; shorter periods of time to management contract expiry; and high emphasis attached to non-financial factors in capital budgeting appraisal.     

Do a firm's equity returns reflect the risk of its pension plan?

This paper examines the empirical question of whether systematic equity risk of US firms as measured by beta from the capital asset pricing model reflects the risk of their pension plans. There are a number of reasons to suspect that it might not. Chief among them is the opaque set of accounting rules used to report pension assets, liabilities, and expenses. Pension plan assets and liabilities are off-balance sheet and are often viewed as segregated from the rest of the firm, with its own trustees. Pension accounting rules are complicated. Furthermore, the role of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation clouds the real relation between pension plan risk and firm equity risk. The empirical findings in this paper are consistent with the hypothesis that equity risk does reflect the risk of the firm's pension plan despite arcane accounting rules for pensions. This finding is consistent with informational efficiency of the capital markets. It also has implications for corporate finance practice in the determination of the cost of capital for capital budgeting. Standard procedure uses de-leveraged equity return betas to infer the cost of capital for operating assets. But the de-leveraged betas are not adjusted for the risk of the pension assets and liabilities. Failure to make this adjustment typically biases upward estimates of the discount rate for capital budgeting. The magnitude of the bias is shown here to be large for a number of well-known US companies. This bias can result in positive net present value projects being rejected.     

The Theory-Practice Gap in Capital Budgeting: Evidence from the United Kingdom

We report the results of a survey of capital budgeting techniques used by United Kingdom firms. Where possible, the evidence is combined with data collected over a 22 year period to provide a basis for the discussion of causes of trends. We observe that there has been a substantial narrowing of the theory-practice gap in the use of project appraisal methods. The gap has also narrowed in other areas: the analysis of risk, inflation adjustment, capital budget preparation, WACC calculation and post-auditing. However, there are other elements of capital budgeting theory, e.g. probability and beta analysis which have been adopted by very few practising managers. We also discuss non-economic projects, capital rationing and hurdle rates.     

Intertemporal capital budgeting

This paper analyzes the optimal capital budgeting mechanism when divisional managers are privately informed about the arrival of future investment projects. Consistent with field study evidence, an optimal allocation mechanism can include a stipulation that a capital request for discretionary investment will be declined with positive probability in the period after a significant investment was made even though this is ex post suboptimal. The model derives a number of empirical predictions regarding capital budgeting and the investment of financially constrained firms.     

Strategic capital investment decision-making: A role for emergent analysis tools?: A study of practice in large UK manufacturing companies

The complexity surrounding strategic capital investments present challenges to managers charged with evaluating these projects. In particular over-reliance on financial appraisal tools is thought to bias decision-makers against undertaking strategic projects that are crucial to the development of business capability and innovation. In response to this concern, several emergent analysis tools have been advanced as means to integrate strategic and financial analyses of capital investment projects. This paper examines the use of both conventional financial analysis tools and selected emergent analysis approaches in the capital investment decision-making of large UK manufacturing companies.The findings update previous studies on the use of financial analysis tools, but also examine how their use varies between strategic and non-strategic investment projects and the extent to which emergent analysis tools are impacting decision-making practice. Little evidence emerges of integration between strategic and financial analysis approaches. Financial analysis techniques still dominate the appraisal of all categories of capital investment projects, while risk analysis approaches remain simplistic, even for complex strategic projects. Despite their noted potential for informing strategic investment decisions, the emergent analysis tools barely register in practice. The appraisal of capital projects seems to reflect a ‘simple is best’ philosophy and a commitment to the role of intuition and judgement in assessing how the strategic dimensions of capital investments connect with their financial outcomes.     

Capital Allocation in Financial Firms

This paper develops a theory of capital allocation in financial intermediaries where the cost of "risk capital" is a critical consideration. The implication for capital budgeting is that financial firms should use a modified NPV rule in which projects are valued by calculating the NPV of cash flows using marketdetermined discount rates and then subtracting a deadweight cost of capital that reflects the project's marginal contribution to firm-wide risk.
By taking account of deadweight costs—mainly monitoring and moral hazard costs associated with having too little equity capital as well as "free cash flow" agency costs and higher taxes associated with having too much—the capital allocation model predicts that financial firms will diversify across businesses with similar deadweight costs. Such diversification reduces the cost of risk capital for the individual businesses, thereby creating more profitable investment opportunities at the margin and enabling the businesses to operate on a larger scale. The authors note that their model has similarities to but also important differences from the standard applications of RAROC models.     

THE USER COST AND CAPITAL BUDGETING

This study describes the relationship between the user cost of capital and capital budgeting processes and presents a formula for computing the user cost of an investment, accommodating the existence of taxes, inflation, and a nonconstant level of production. A project acceptability criterion assigning positive net present value when cash operating income exceeds user cost is discussed and applied to several examples. The test is shown to be useful and easy to apply.     

The WACC Fallacy: The Real Effects of Using a Unique Discount Rate

In this paper, we test whether firms properly adjust for risk in their capital budgeting decisions. If managers use a single discount rate within firms, we expect that conglomerates underinvest (overinvest) in relatively safe (risky) divisions. We measure division relative risk as the difference between the division's asset beta and a firm‐wide beta. We establish a robust and significant positive relationship between division‐level investment and division relative risk. Next, we measure the value loss due to this behavior in the context of acquisitions. When the bidder's beta is lower than that of the target, announcement returns are significantly lower.