Information Flow and Pricing Errors: A Unified Approach to Estimation and Testing

This study examines whether rates of information flow differbetween trading and nontrading periods, and whether the variancesof pricing errors differ at the open and close of trading. Theapproach improves on existing methods by allowing for correlationbetween pricing errors and information flow, and by conductinginferences at the individual security level. The daytime rateof information flow is about seven times the overnight rate,and the variances of pricing errors at the open are not differentfrom those at the close of trading. This evidence differs fromexisting results based on return variance ratios.     

基于行为均衡汇率的人民币汇率失衡程度估算

本文运用协整理论、行为均衡汇率理论,选取影响汇率的两个宏观经济指标对实际有效汇率进行协整和误差修正建模,对人民币均衡汇率进行估计,并对1988年以来人民币汇率的失调情况进行了测算和分析。得出的结论是:1.人民币实际有效汇率始终围绕均衡汇率波动,并经历了不同程度的高估和低估;在1993年第四季度到1998年第三季度以及2003年第一季度到最近,人民币均衡汇率是出于上升的趋势,而在其他样本期间处于下降趋势。2.人民币汇率并没有像西方国家所认为的那样被严重低估,而是围绕行为均衡汇率波动,人民币汇率并没有被中国央行所操纵。     

On Testing the Random-Walk Hypothesis: A Model-Comparison Approach

The main intention of this paper is to investigate, with new daily data, whether prices in the two Chinese stock exchanges (Shanghai and Shenzhen) follow a random‐walk process as required by market efficiency. We use two different approaches, the standard variance‐ratio test of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) and a model‐comparison test that compares the ex post forecasts from a NAÏVE model with those obtained from several alternative models: ARIMA, GARCH and the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). To evaluate ex post forecasts, we utilize several procedures including RMSE, MAE, Theil's U, and encompassing tests. In contrast to the variance‐ratio test, results from the model‐comparison approach are quite decisive in rejecting the random‐walk hypothesis in both Chinese stock markets. Moreover, our results provide strong support for the ANN as a potentially useful device for predicting stock prices in emerging markets.     

现付成本与现销收入一步到位的确定

现付成本与现销收两个重要的现金流量指标，同时又是一些重要财务比率计算的依据，现付成本与现销收入常规的分析调整是采取“逐步式”的方法，一步到位的方法更准确，快速。     

Quantifying the Interest Rate Risk of Banks: Assumptions Do Matter

This paper analyses the robustness of the standardised framework proposed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004b) to quantify the interest rate risk of banks. We generalise this framework and study the change in the estimated level of interest rate risk if the strict assumptions of the standardised framework are violated. Using data on the German universal banking system, we find that estimates of the interest rate risk are very sensitive to the framework's assumptions. We conclude that the results obtained using the standardised framework in its current specification should be treated with caution when used for supervisory and risk management purposes.     

Using a Bootstrap Approach to Rate the Raters

This paper compares the accuracy of credit ratings of Moody's and Standard and Poor's. Based on 11,428 issuer ratings and 350 defaults in several datasets from 1999 to 2003 a slight advantage for the rating system of Moody's is detected. Compared to former research, the robustness of the results is increased by using nonparametric bootstrap approaches. Furthermore, robustness checks are made to control for the impact of watchlist entries, staleness of ratings, and the effect of unsolicited ratings on the results.     

金融危机背景下企业现金流运行中的政策影响研究

目前鲜有学者将企业现金流的研究视角放在宏观政策层面上,本文抓住了金融危机这一契机,以财政政策为研究对象,将其对企业现金流的影响分为财政政策在宏观层面的传导、财政政策在宏观微观间的传导、财政政策在微观层面的传导三大过程进行尝试性分析,得出传导链条,并提出了危机中企业现金流管理的两大关注点,以期对危机中企业现金流断流风险的防范以及相关宏观经济政策的制定有所帮助。     

ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan

This paper re-examines Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price monetary model to exchange rate determination by employing both conventional Johansen’s (1988, 1990, 1994) maximum likelihood cointegration test and the ARDL Bound test by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) for the monthly data of Taiwan over the period 1986:01 ∼ 2003:04. Ambiguous results are found for the long-run equilibrium relationship between the NTD/USD exchange rate and macro fundamentals. With the advantage that ARDL Bound test incorporates both I(1) and I(0) series, we conclude our empirical evidence that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates and macro fundamentals. Moreover, for the short-run dynamic response, the result from the ARDL-UECM-MAIC (1, 10, 10, 8, 10) setting supports the overshooting of currency depreciation as pre-described by Dornbusch (1976). However, this overshooting phenomenon does not exist the current month, but one month after.JEL Classification: C32, B22, E44     

An Economic Approach to Capital Allocation

This article starts with primitive assumptions on preferences and risk. It then derives prices consistent with a social optimum within an insurance company and the consumer‐level capital allocation implied therein. The allocation “adds up” to the total capital of the firm (a result echoing findings in the congestion pricing literature—where optimal tolls exactly cover the rental cost of the highway). The allocation follows each consumer's share of recoveries in states of insurer default, weighted by the severity of the default in terms of welfare impact. However, the article argues that an economic approach technically restricts only the capital allocated to marginal units of coverage: inframarginal units could in principle receive different allocations.     

浅论收益法中折现率的确定

在收益法评估的过程中,资产折现率的确定会对评估结果产生较大影响.在国外普遍地采用资本资产定价模型.在我国,因为各种原因,目前应用CAPM模型的条件尚未成熟.笔者以为可采用加权平均资金成本或风险利率分析法,并在考虑资金利润率的基础上加以确定.     

The Mirrlees Approach to the Theory of Economic Policy

This paper summarizes James Mirrlees' key contribution to the theory of tax policy. It argues that the Mirrlees approach of viewing government as being constrained by imperfect information has changed profoundly how we look at the normative public policy. In this view, asymmetric information provides the limit to redistribution by restricting the efficiency-equity trade-off. It leads to consideration of other policy instruments for relaxing incentive constraints and improving the efficiency of redistributive policies. Some of these instruments include quantity controls, in-kind transfers and public provision or mandating of insurance, things we observe in practice.     

新的现金流量表的编制方法--现金流量发生额计列法

传统的现金流量表均需以资产负债表和利润表项目数据为基础，经过复杂的调整才能生成现金流量表，实践中不便于操作，生成的现金流量信息滞后，不利于信息使用使用。本法即现金流量发生额计列法所生成的现金流量数据直接来源于涉及现金流量的少量账户的本期发生额。该法只需在系统拿握现金流量分类的基础上，将涉及现金流动的几个账户的现金流量性质按现金流量分类归集进行简单数据处理即可。该方法在提高编表效率、提高现金流量信息的及时性精确性方面具有明显的比较优势。     

建立新形势下的现金管理有效监管机制初探

现金管理是当前中国人民银行的重要职责之一,现金管理的质量和效果直接影响国家货币流通秩序和经济秩序的稳定。现金管理职能是否有效发挥,对防范和打击洗钱、诈骗、逃税等经济犯罪,规避和化解金融风险,维护经济金融秩序稳定,保障金融机构公平竞争有着重大的意义。     

现代汇率决定理论的发展:从"流量"到"存量"再到"存量-流量"分析

现代汇率决定理论是国际金融学最核心的内容之一,纵观有关汇率决定理论的重要文献,可以发现有一条逻辑清晰的主线贯穿其中,即对汇率决定的研究开始是采用"流量(flow)"分析法,而后来的经济学家们摒弃了这种对汇率的狭隘看法,认为两国货币的相对供求是决定汇率水平的主要因素,建立起了"存量(stock)"分析法,但是其完全抛弃国际收支在汇率决定中的作用也是有失偏颇的,故"存量-流量(stock-flow)"分析在历经探索后被提出了.     

大额现金交易问题及其对策研究

当前现金管理中的一个突出问题是随着金融电子化快速发展,大额现金交易反而出现显著增长,这不仅导致社会成本支出的大量增加,而且给一些违法犯罪活动提供便利条件,因此迫切需要加强大额现金交易的监督和管理。本文从灰色经济学理论出发,通过实际调查客观分析大额现金交易问题的主要原因,在此基础上借鉴国际经验和国内银行经验,分析设计多种大额现金管理措施,并通过利用群决策方法对大额现金交易原因的重要性和大额现金管理措施的有效性进行比较评价,提出明确的政策取向和具体的政策建议,从而为进一步加强大额现金管理提供决策依据。     

Cash Flow Estimation and Cost of Capital for Overseas Projects

Several issues concerning foreign project evaluation are critically examined. The paper suggests that the point of view for analysis, cost of capital and cash flow estimation be internally consistent. Three points of views of analysis, local, global, and parent specific, are identified and various inconsistencies in the estimation of the initial outlay and project cash flows are identified. The elimination of the inconsistencies is discussed. It is argued that the treatment of blocked funds is relevant only from the parent specific point of view. A number of alternatives for the estimate of the terminal value is also suggested. The differences between the parent specific point of view and the global and local views are sharply drawn. An integrated scheme is also presented to underscore the need for consistency in evaluating foreign investments.     

折现率估算的误区解析

折现率在收益现值法中的使用是不可缺少的,但在评估实务中普遍存在不规范使用的问题,如对所谓的行业净资产收益率或股权投资回报率的误用.该文提出应采用全投资回报率为折现率,并提出通过企业全部资产的加权平均投资回报率折算无形资产的投资回报率.