Does final energy demand in Portugal exhibit long memory? A fractional integration analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects.     

Environmental policy, fuel prices and the switching to natural gas in Santiago, Chile

In this study I analyzed the role of environmental policies and energy cost savings on the pattern of switching to natural gas by stationary sources in Chile. According to the data most of the switching was induced by the lower cost of natural gas, although environmental policies played a small role and showed that sources were more sensitive to the cost of energy than to the environmental regulation.     

THE DEMAND FOR ENERGY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

Interfuel substitution, a priori , seems to be of considerable importance in the economy of the United Kingdom. Consequently, an appropriate model is developed and estimated. All energy sources are demonstrated to be substitutable. Coal is the most price responsive with natural gas, oil and electrical following. The results are not inconsistent with other studies of energy substitution. Moreover, when the issue of the stability of the demand for energy types is considered, the suggestion that the demand for coal, oil, natural gas, and electrical energy have remained virtually constant over the past three decades.     

Natural gas,trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world

Natural gas is the key non-renewable source of energy for a low-carbon economy. The research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world. We establish long-run dynamics with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries. The long-run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies. Further, we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption, output and trade in the short-run. Given the significance of natural gas as the low-emission source of energy, we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply, reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market. With trade integration, majority of these countries need to incorporate these initiatives to improve the technologies such as combined cycle power plant technology and value-added chemical production technology to achieve sustainable economic growth.     

Final Energy Demand in Portugal: How Persistent it is and Why it Matters for Environmental Policy

ABSTRACT

The objective of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in final energy demand in Portugal. Our results suggest that when structural breaks are accounted for, aggregate energy demand and all of its components are stationary. Accordingly, the response to shocks is not permanent. We find, however, strong levels of persistence. Demand for electricity is the most persistent component of aggregate demand while the levels of persistence for petroleum and gas are similar and close to the aggregate level. In turn, demand for coal and biomass are also similar and the least persistent. These results have important implications for the design of macroeconomic policies. Indeed, high persistent levels mean that temporary energy shocks translate into persistent changes in energy demand and thereby in less transient shocks to the overall economy. These results are also important for the design of environmental policies. The fact that energy demand is highly persistent means that the effects of environmental policies will tend to be long lasting. Also, the relatively high persistence of electricity, gas and petroleum and the fact that their levels of persistence are similar suggests that fuel switching policies involving these fuels will be relatively easy to implement.     

Analysis of the optimal spatial distribution of natural gas under ‘transition from coal to gas’ in China

China has been attempting to realise green sustainable economic development. Thus, China has proposed and begun to implement the ‘switching from coal to gas’ policy to realise the energy structure transition but neglected to consider seasonal natural gas demand fluctuations, gas supply shortages, the backward gas transportation and storage infrastructure. This paper constructs a model of China’s natural gas distribution system by incorporating these four factors: ① supply factors including domestic natural gas fields, liquid natural gas receiving stations, internationally piped gas sources, ② demand factors including domestic regional demands, ③ real natural gas transportation pipeline systems in the country, and ④ the pricing mechanism of natural gas. Optimal spatial natural gas distribution with maximum social welfare under the three conditions are simulated, respectively: the ① fixed price system, ② market pricing mechanism, and ③ seasonal fluctuations. The simulation results indicate substantial changes would occur in China’s natural gas system during the switch from coal to gas, and the natural gas infrastructure requires further improvement. This paper also provides references for the natural gas storage facility location selection in China.     

Short- and long-run relationships between natural gas consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Pakistan

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Pakistan using a multivariate model by including capital and labor as control variables for the period between 1972QI and 2011QIV. The results of the ARDL bound testing indicate the presence of cointegration relationships among the variables. The estimated long-run impact of gas consumption on economic growth is greater than other factor inputs suggesting that energy is a critical driver of production and growth in Pakistan. Furthermore, the results of causality test suggest that natural gas consumption and economic growth are complements. Given that natural gas constitutes to the primary source of energy in Pakistan, the implication of this study is that natural gas conservation policies could harm growth and, therefore, requires the policy makers to improve the energy supply efficiency as well as formulate appropriate policies to attract investment and establish public–private partnership initiatives.     

Zur Energienachfrage privater Haushalte

Summary This paper analyzes the private demand for energy (coal, heating oil, natural gas and electricity) for the period 1958–1974, using yearly data.The energy demand of private households is supposed to be dependent on household incomes, prices of the respective energy sources and yearly temperature levels. The special aim of this paper is to get hold of the influence of the relative prices of the 11 sub-groups of private consumption. The impact of these relativ prices is analyzed through the method of principal components, where upon the first three principal components are introduced as additional independent variables into the regression.Although the principal components do not have any interpretation beyond that of an index, the fit of the estimated demand questions has been improved and the elasticities are more close to the expected values.     

Elasticity of substitution and technical efficiency: evidence from the US electricity generation

ABSTRACT

The implications of national or regional energy policies for technical efficiency and environmental outcomes in electricity generation depend on fossil fuel input substitution. This study uses state level data to examine fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) substitution in electricity generation under increased availability of natural gas in the United States. We observe that changes in elasticities of substitution from pre-2009 to post-2009 differ across states suggesting that the effects of increased availability of inexpensive natural gas on electricity generation have been spatially heterogeneous. We rely on the observed heterogeneity to assess the effects of fossil fuel input substitution on technical efficiency and CO₂ emissions. The results reveal that state level elasticity of substitution between natural gas and coal has a positive effect on technical efficiency and a negative effect on CO₂ emissions. Therefore, future policy design and analyses should reflect the implications for regional elasticities of fossil fuel substitution and associated environmental outcomes.     

Energy Consumption Changes and CO2 Emission in India During Reforms

As we know that energy consumption or fossil fuel consumption is very much linked with environmental pollution, which is known as global climate change, so more energy related activities have an adverse impact on environment.

The paper makes an analysis of the changes in India’s energy consumption and CO₂ emission during the reforms introduced by Govt. of India in mid 1991. The energy Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) is used to identify the sources of energy consumption changes during the period 1991–92 to 1996–97. Results indicate that India’s energy consumption increased by 5.7% p.a. during the same period. Six different forces behind these changes are observed (i) technical changes, (ii) final demand structure, (iii) interaction term between technical change and final demand structure, (iv) changes in energy exports, (v) changes in energy imports, (vi) changes in energy change in stock. The empirical results show that the final demand structure, technical changes, and interaction term between final demand structure and technical changes have played important role. The findings of CO₂ emission revealed that the petroleum product and electricity are the dominating sectors, which are due to the direct effect of crude oil and coal respectively. So far as the intensities are concerned, electricity contributes a major part. The paper also suggests few policies for consideration.

     

Estimation of demand function for natural gas in Iran: Evidences based on smooth transition regression models

This paper attempts to study the demand function of natural gas in Iran using smooth transition regression model (STR). To this end, gross domestic productions (GDP), real price of natural gas and temperature have been employed as variables explaining the natural gas demand from 1971 to 2009. The results indicate that natural gas demand follows an LSTR1 nonlinear two-regime model if the real price of natural gas is considered as the transition variable. Estimation results also indicate that the slope parameter approximately equals the high value of 10 and the threshold value is 31.82 Rials¹ per one cubic meter consumption of natural gas. The results strongly suggest that natural gas demand follows the gross domestic production during the last years, but temperature has no significant impact on natural gas demand in Iran.     

Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?

This study investigates the relationship between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption by incorporating economic growth, exports and currency devaluation in energy demand function for the case of Pakistan. The long-run and short-run effects are examined via ARDL bounds testing procedure. Foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation (economic growth and exports) decrease (increase) energy consumption in long-run. The results confirm a feedback effect between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption. These findings would be helpful to policy makers in designing comprehensive economic and energy policies for utilizing foreign capital inflows as a tool for optimal use of energy sources to enhance economic development in long run.     

FUEL TAXES AND COINTEGRATION OF ENERGY PRICES

Creating a successful energy tax policy requires understanding the markets that the energy policy targets. This paper analyzes coal, natural gas, and oil markets to determine the extent to which these fuel prices move together. Results indicate that a stable long-run relationship between coal and oil prices existed until 1974 and that this relationship changed after 1974. The long-run relationship between coal, natural gas, and oil prices implies that a single fuel tax in these markets would not be effective as a single tax policy. Similarly, an equal percentage tax on these energy sources, which does not change relative prices initially, would not keep relative prices unchanged in the long run. Energy policy must take account of the long-run relationship between different energy prices. Otherwise, the long-run results of energy policy could be quite different than intended .     

Negative price spikes at power markets: the role of energy policy

In Germany, substantial drops in wholesale power prices have become a regular phenomenon. While such price drops have far-reaching implications for the functioning of the power market, their underlying determinants remain poorly understood. To fill this gap, we propose a Markov regime-switching model to investigate low-price events at the European Power Exchange. Our analysis focuses on the role of energy policies that promote renewable energies and have led to significant reductions of nuclear capacities after the Fukushima accident. We find that high electricity infeed from renewable sources increases negative price spike probabilities, while the decommissioning of nuclear plants under the Nuclear Moratorium had an opposing effect. Simulations of market outcomes under different energy policies indicate that reaching ambitious renewable energy targets increases the frequency of low-price events and compromises the financial viability of conventional generation units, while a nuclear phase-out or an increase in storage capacities mitigates these effects.     

Driving forces of global carbon emissions: From time- and spatial-dynamic perspectives

Up to date, collective efforts in greenhouse gas mitigation made by the international community have been rather ineffective. A major reason of the unsuccessfulness may be attributed to imprecise comprehension on the sources of greenhouse gas pollution and their changing dynamics. Utilizing the LMDI decomposition method, this paper investigates the time- and spatial-dynamics of drivers governing global carbon emissions. We decompose and quantify the effects of different drivers, that is, population, affluence, energy intensity and carbon intensity, across time on global carbon emissions. Next based on country-level decomposition, we also calculate and track the spatial gravity centers of the effects of the drivers. Our results show that energy intensity effect is the leading contributor for carbon emission mitigation, whereas economic development, carbon emission intensity and population serve as factors accelerating carbon emissions. We also find significant heterogeneities in the spatial dynamics of the contribution of different drivers, implying that differentiated climate change policies should be made at different countries to effectively curb global carbon emissions.     

基于企业合作开发利用能源问题的探究——以中国和哈萨克斯坦油气资源利用为例

能源是国民经济和社会发展的重要战略物资,是经济发展的命脉。近年来中国经济快速发展对能源的引致需求日益增加,国内的能源供给已经不能满足其需求,依赖能源进口且逐年增加的态势尤为明显。而与我国有着地缘优势的哈萨克斯坦油气资源较丰富,随着里海大陆架油气资源的发现,其油气资源储量更是逐年增加。这对能源消耗大国中国来说尤为重要。因此,中哈两国企业进行能源合作开发利用,不但可行且需要加快推进。本文以我国能源需求现状、哈萨克斯坦能源物质条件为基础,分析了中哈两国企业合作开发利用现状、优劣势,分别从中方和哈方寻找制约两国企业能源合作开发的限制性因素,并据此提出了相关的对策建议。该研究主要为为两国合作应对策略的制定提供参考依据。     

The Impact of Private Interest Contributions on RPS Adoption

In the last two decades, many U.S. states introduced policies to promote electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES‐E). Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are considered to be the key RES‐E policy tool to date. This article tackles the question on why some state legislators were front‐running the trend of RPS implementation whereas others adopted policies just recently, and why others have not adopted them at all. We compile data on financial contributions of conventional energy interest groups (CEI) and renewable energy interest groups (REI) to state‐level policy‐makers between 1998 and 2010. By means of hazard and tobit regressions, we test the effect of these financial contributions on the probability of RPS adoption and on RPS stringency. The article provides evidence in favor of interest group theory. First, CEI have donated more to state‐level legislators affiliated with the Republican Party than to Democrats while contributions from REI went largely to the latter. Second, there are statistically significant links between the likelihood of RPS adoption and private interest contributions. Contributions from CEI have a negative effect on the likelihood of RPS adoption whereas REI contributions have a positive effect.     

A dynamic model of OPEC trade and production

A dynamic simulation model is presented of the world energy market, covering the period 1974–1995. It is used to assess and rank six possible price or output policies that OPEC may adopt with respect to oil exports, given a range of assumptions relating to such important variables as the rate of growth of domestic absorption of oil revenues within OPEC, the rate of capacity expansion for oil production, the responsiveness of investment in alternative sources of energy to changes in oil prices, and the rate of growth of world demand for energy. Furthermore, an illustrative analysis is given of possible conflict situations within OPEC, and their impact on the choice of price or output policy is discussed. The main conclusion drawn is that the supply response of alternative energy sources to OPEC oil will be the key to predicting whether oil prices will go up or down.     

Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

Macroeconomic Uncertainty,Fund Demand and Corporate Investment

Using a unique set of data on fund use by China’s listed companies, this paper examines how macroeconomic uncertainty works on corporate investment. The study shows that macroeconomic uncertainty affects corporate investment behavior through the three channels of external demand, liquidity demand and long-term fund demand. However, the result is influenced by expectations and can differ across firms depending on their economic cycle, shareholder character, industrial character and the financial constraints they are exposed to. Specifically, high macroeconomic uncertainty can weaken the positive roles of these channels, especially those of external demand and liquidity demand, in driving corporate investment. During economic upturns, the effect of these channels is the most evident among state-owned firms, manufacturing firms and low cash dividend firms. The lessons from this study are that macroeconomic policies should be leveraged taking account of the channels through which economic shocks find their way, and monetary policies have to be implemented by targeting microscopic fund demand.