Sur la notion de prime d'épargne

Abstract

Il est bien connu que la réserve mathématique W (t) d'une assurance très générale sur la vie satisfait à une équation différentielle de Thiele, à savoir où l'on a

• δ (t) = le taux instantané ou l'intensité d'intérêt,

• μ (t) = l'intensité de mourir,

• P (t = la prime par unité du temps,

• S (t) = le capital assuré en cas de décès.

     

Sur un point de la théorie des erreurs accidentelles

Abstract

Dans son traité de la théorie des erreurs ¹ Theorie der Beobachtungsfehler, Leipzig 1891. M. E. Czuber s'occupe page 202–204 du calcul de la valeur probable de la plus petite erreur dans une série d'observations. En admettant la loi de Gauss il en trouve l'expression , où n est le nombre des observations et . Afin d'évaluer l'intégrale qui représente σ, M. Czuber la remplace par , eu remarquant que la valeur de est très petite, dès que k est en quelque façon considérable. Pour les petites valeurs de x la fonction θ(x) ne diffère que légèrement de hx, dit-il ensuite, de sorte que nous aurons comme valeur approchée de σ . En supposant le nombre n très grand, il est clair, dit M. Czuber, qu'on peut choisir k de manière que (1-hk)ⁿ⁺¹ soit négligeable; il parvient ainsi à la valeur definitive .     

Sur une loi de probabilité considérée par J. F. Steffensen

Abstract

Dans ce même périodique, vous avez considéré¹, à la page 7, la loi de probabilité de deux variables aléatoires X, Y,² où la probabilité élémentaire ?(x, y) dx dy pour que X et Y soient respectivement compris entre x et x + dx, y et y + dy, est de la forme où K, a ₁, a ₂, b ₁, b ₂ sont des constantes. Nous nous proposons, dans ce qui suit, d'apporter quelques compléments à votre exposé.     

Les potentiels à n dimensions et la fonction de probabilité

Abstract

Je me suis proposé, il y a plusieurs années, d'étudier quelques questions de l'Analyse qui doivent avoir, quoique peut-être pas trop directement, une grande importance pour la théorie des probabilités. J'ai voulu pénétrer les énigmes qui enveloppent encore les connections qui existent certainement entre les formules fondamentales de cette théorie, d'une part, et les créations de la physique mathématique, d'autre part. J'ai surtout pensé aux résultats qui se rap portent aux équations à dérivées partielles, contenant l'expression différentielle de Laplace. Sans doute, la dénudation des secrets les plus intimes d'une théorie, la révélation des analogies frappantes des domaines différents, dans l'esprit de Riemann et Klein, abstraction faite de la beauté brillante de ces recherches, a aussi une grande valeur pratique pour la science. Je crois donc qu'on do it être reconnaissant quand on parvient à des résultats de cette espèce, si peu importants qu'ils peuvent apparaître.     

Análisis de la histéresis del desempleo en México ante shocks macroeconómicos

This research presents the behavior of the Mexican unemployment rate and shows the dependence with own history and macro variables. The concept of hysteresis or persistence tries to separate this inertia in the unemployment rate and some macroeconomic and endogenous factors. The results show a high inertia in the Mexican labor market, justified by the monetary levels and the dependence of the investment levels, considering the shocks of exports that affect the unemployment in the long term.     

Los efectos de largo plazo de la asimetría y persistencia en la predicción de la volatilidad: evidencia para mercados accionarios de América Latina

This article proposes an extension to the CGARCH model in order to capture the characteristics of short-run and long-run asymmetry and persistence, and examine their effects in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility of the stock markets from the region of Latin America during the period from 2 January 1992 to 31 December 2014. In the sample analysis, the estimation results of the CGARCH-class model family reveal the presence of short-run and long-run significant asymmetric effects and long-run persistency in the structure of stock price return volatility. The empirical results also show that the use of symmetric and asymmetric loss functions and the statistical test of Hansen (2005) are sound alternatives for evaluating the predictive ability of the asymmetric CGARCH models. In addition, the inclusion of long-run asymmetry and long-run persistency in the variance equation improves significantly the out of sample volatility forecasts for emerging stock markets of Argentina and Mexico.     

Relación de causalidad entre el índice de precios del productor y el índice de precios del consumidor incorporando cambios estructurales El caso de México

This paper analyzes the causal relationship between producer and consumer prices in the case of Mexico during the period 1994:01–2012:02. To do this, we use three unit root tests (Dickey-Fuller, 1979 y 1981; Phillips-Perron, 1988; Lee-Strazicich, 2003) and two tests of causality (Granger,1969; Toda y Yamamoto,1995). The results indicate that taking into account structural changes and the deterministic trend, both price indexes are stationary. We find unidirectional causal relationship running from CPI to IPP.     

Gobierno corporativo,financiamiento y género: un estudio de las pymes emisoras de títulos en los mercados de valores argentinos

The aim of this work is to study corporate governance (CG) in small and medium enterprises (SMEs) from a gender perspective. In particular, we study the participation of women in ownership, management (board and senior management) and external audit in SMEs participating in the Argentinean Securities Market. The results show that participation of women in ownership and in external audit has a significant relationship with financing decisions. However, we do not find evidence of relations among different levels of GC and gender.     

¿Hay evidencia de ciclo político-económico en el empleo sectorial de México, 1998-2013?

This paper looks for evidence of political-business cycles associated to the presidential elections in the Mexican sectorial employment over the period 1998-2013. By estimating panel data models, and controlling for the effects of the major determinants of employment, no evidence consistent with the predictions of the theoretical opportunistic model is found, i.e. whereas employment shows an expansion before and during the elections periods, the estimates are neither statistically significant nor robust. Furthermore, employment does not experience contractions after the elections or the office taking periods. Notwithstanding, the evidence suggests that employment is positively and negatively affected by output and real wages, respectively.     

快乐de会计主管快乐de我

"快乐的会计主管,快乐的我". 每天早上,当急促的闹铃声把我从梦中惊醒过来的时候,当窗外第一缕阳光照耀着我脸庞的时候,我在心里默默地这样告诉自己:当会计主管,我快乐!尽管每天都重复着繁重、单调、枯燥的工作.但当我每晚在静静的夜里梳理完一天的工作之后,我的心中就有一种无比轻松、愉快的感觉……     

Sur le problème des moments et le théorème de Parseval correspondant

Abstract

On connaît le rôle que joue le théorème de Parseval. dans la théorie des séries de Fourier et, plus généralement, dans celle des développements suivant des fonctions orthogonales. On sait aussi qu'on peut généraliser la notion d'orthogonalité ainsi que le théorème de Parseval de différentes manierès, p. ex. en se servant de l'intégrale de Stieltjes correspondant à, une distribution de masses positives.     

Evolución de la capacidad tecnológica en México. Aplicación del análisis estadístico multivariante de cluster

This paper conducts an analysis on the existence of state clusters related with technological capabilities in Mexico. An empirical study was conducted using the technique of multivariate statistical cluster analysis, based on the set of indicators proposed by Cepal (2007), collecting data from various public sources country for 2006 and 2012 in order to study the time evolution of such clusters, trying to see what states have been moving to a cluster located in positions more which have advanced and retreated over the period. The results show the existence of 7 groups of states characterized by different technological capabilities, plus states are identified in decline and progress, both in terms of absorptive capacity and innovation, and in relation to the technological infrastructure capabilities.     

Valuación de opciones de tipo de cambio asumiendo distribuciones α-estables

This paper aims to present the valuation of options using the Black-Scholes method assuming α-stable distributions as an alternative option valuation in the Mexican market. The use of α-stable distributions for modelling financial series allows to overcome the classical valuation main weakness which assumes normality, by capturing the presence of heavy tails and asymmetry in financial time series. One of the main results is the price differential between the two models and the effect of alpha and beta parameters on prices; to show the difference valuation is made of a call option and a put option for the peso-dollar exchange rate. Likewise, basic sensitivity measurements of options (delta, gamma, and rho) were made and the effect of the stability parameter (α) was made on the implied volatility of options assuming the α-stable price as the market price.     

The Genesis of the 2007 Conseil National de la Comptabilité: A Case of Institutional Isomorphism?

This article puts forward an interpretation of the reform of the French accounting standard-setter initiated by Decree no. 20076629 of 27 April 2007 relating to the national accounting standards board, the Conseil National de la Comptabilité (CNC). This reform, if it goes to term, will give birth to a French accounting standards authority, the Autorité des Normes Comptables (ANC). The proposed interpretation fits within a neo-institutionalist framework. In particular, it uses the notions of path dependency and institutional mimetism. The new CNC is first put into context as an institution in relation to its predecessors. It is then compared with two institutions, the architecture of which may have inspired its conception, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF). It would appear that the new CNC clearly departs from the historical path traced by French accounting regulation and tends to mimic French autorités administratives indépendantes (independent administrative authorities) of the AMF type. However, such ‘authorities’ are strongly inspired by the American Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). So paradoxically, the model of the new French Accounting Standards Authority would be a SEC rather than an FASB.     

Efectos de la contratación de exempleados de multinacionales en la capacidad de absorción en empresas locales

Attracting Foreign Direct Investment seeks, among other goals, increase productivity of local firms through knowledge spillovers. Nevertheless the empirical evidence is contradictory. One influential factor is the absorptive capacity of local firms. This article analyzes the effect of the presence of ex-employees of multinational companies, as employees of local firms in the absorption capacity of these firms. The study was conducted in Costa Rica, a country recognized for its successful strategy in this area. The data come from a survey of 1,167 companies conducted by the Costa Rican Observatory of Small and Mediums Enterprises in 2011. It was found that hiring former employees of multinational companies by local firms has a positive effect on the rate of absorption capacity. In short, this engagement of former employees of multinationals increases by nine percentage points the rate of absorption capacity, with differences for sectors and firms sizes.     

Factores que explican la extensión de revelación de activos intangibles de los bancos que cotizan en la Bolsa de Valores de Panamá

This paper analyzes the level of voluntary disclosure of intangible assets, and identifies the factors that explain the disclosure of such information by the banks listed on the Panama Stock Exchange during the period 2005-2009. The information is recorded on an index that contains 158 indicators divided into five categories: human capital, technological structural, organizational structure, relational business and social relational. Three hypotheses are posed: H₁ there is a positive relationship between the size and extent of disclosure of intangible assets; H₂ a positive relationship between the extent of incorporation and disclosure of intangible assets; H₃ there is a positive relationship between leverage and the extent of disclosure of intangible assets. The results indicate that for Panama banks it is more important to disclose information on intangibles in the following order: business relational capital, social relational, organizational structure, human and technological structural. H₁ was accepted as a size category except for the structural capital; H₂ was accepted for the years in all categories, while H₃ was rejected.     

Une application de la nomographie au système complet de rentes viagères de Blaschke-Gram

Abstract

Blaschke ¹ E. Blaschke: » Ueber eine Anwendung des Sterbegesetzes von Gompertz-Makeham ». Mitteilungen des Verbandes der östeur. und ungar. Versicherungstechniker, 1902. et Gram ² J. P. Gram: »Om Makehams Dødelighedsformel og dens Anvendelse paa ikke normale Liv ». Aktuaren, Heft 1, 1904. ont exprimé la relation entre les rentes viagères de deux ordres de survie quelconques obéissant à la loi de Makeham par les équations fondamentales I_a II_a et III_a ci-après.     

Análisis del servicio de Urgencias aplicando teoría de líneas de espera

Those responsible for making decisions in hospitals are increasingly aware of the need to efficiently manage hospital systems. An option for analysis is done by queuing models. In this paper is analyzed the service area ER, in a public hospital applying the concepts and relationships of waiting lines. From the model results, it is concluded that in the emergency department does not have the required minimum number of doctors to allow a steady flow of patients. With the model, the minimum required number of doctors is calculated to meet current and future demand for service with the same service time and the same discipline of service. Analytical models, allowing direct understand the relationships between service demand, number of doctors and patient care priority viewed as a queuing system. The work is useful for administrators and managers of hospital systems.     

Estudio de los factores de compra de productos retro y segmentación del mercado potencial retro

This paper aims to analyze the behavior of potential retro products buyers. A bibliographical review has allowed defining the motives to buy this type of products. However, it should be emphasized that there is scarcely any quantitative information on the reasons to purchase and the segmentation of the potential retro product market. Using the data collected by means of a survey, a factor analysis and a cluster analysis have been performed. As a result, there are three factors of retro product purchase: characteristics of product, present differentiation feelings and past feelings. Furthermore, the existence of two differentiated segments has been detected: emotive consumer and commercial consumer.