Empirical Bayes approach to statistical estimation in the Paretian law

Abstract

The two-parameter Pareto distribution of a random variable (r.v.) X with probability density function (p.d.f.)     

论恩格斯晚年对社会主义道路理论的贡献

在恩格斯的晚年 ,世界历史正经历着巨大的变化。以电的发现与运用为标志的第二次科学技术革命的兴起 ,为资本主义注入了新的生机。资本主义的社会表现出许多新情况、新特点。面对历史的巨大变化与发展 ,恩格斯一方面依据资本主义从自由竞争向垄断过渡阶段所呈现出的新情况、新特点 ,对马克思主义关于从资本主义社会向共产主义过渡的理论进行了新的修订与发展。另一方面 ,依据东方社会的情况 ,使马克思主义的东方社会跨越资本主义“卡夫丁峡谷”的理论得以完善。并将二者有机结合起来共同构成了完整的关于向未来社会过渡的理论。     

Alternative statistical distributions for estimating value-at-risk: theory and evidence

A number of applications presume that asset returns are normally distributed, even though they are widely known to be skewed leptokurtic and fat-tailed and excess kurtosis. This leads to the underestimation or overestimation of the true value-at-risk (VaR). This study utilizes a composite trapezoid rule, a numerical integral method, for estimating quantiles on the skewed generalized t distribution (SGT) which permits returns innovation to flexibly treat skewness, leptokurtosis and fat tails. Daily spot prices of the thirteen stock indices in North America, Europe and Asia provide data for examining the one-day-ahead VaR forecasting performance of the GARCH model with normal, student??s t and SGT distributions. Empirical results indicate that the SGT provides a good fit to the empirical distribution of the log-returns followed by student??s t and normal distributions. Moreover, for all confidence levels, all models tend to underestimate real market risk. Furthermore, the GARCH-based model, with SGT distributional setting, generates the most conservative VaR forecasts followed by student??s t and normal distributions for a long position. Consequently, it appears reasonable to conclude that, from the viewpoint of accuracy, the influence of both skewness and fat-tails effects (SGT) is more important than only the effect of fat-tails (student??s t) on VaR estimates in stock markets for a long position.     

A statistical analysis of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes*

Motivated by the hypothesis that financial crashes are macroscopic examples of critical phenomena associated with a discrete scaling symmetry, we reconsider the evidence of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes and test the prediction that log-periodic oscillations in a financial index are embedded in the mean function of this index (conditional upon no crash having yet occurred). In particular, we examine the first differences of the logarithm of the S&P 500 prior to the October 1987 crash and find the log-periodic component of this time series is not statistically significant if we exclude the last year of data before the crash. We also examine the claim that two separate mechanisms are needed to explain the frequency distribution of draw downs in the S&P 500 and find the evidence supporting this claim to be unconvincing.     

A theory of the corporate decision to resist FASB standards: An organization theory perspective

This paper develops a theoretical framework that specifies the conditions under which corporations are likely to resist financial reporting standards proposed by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB). Determinants of corporate resistance to FASB standards are identified at three levels of analysis: the standard, the corporation, and the corporation’s industry. Propositions are formulated summarizing the effects of the determinants at these three levels, and guidelines are suggested for testing the propositions. Implications for the theory and the practice of accounting regulation are also discussed. The overall goal of the paper is to enhance our understanding of the drivers of corporate resistance to FASB standards, so that accounting regulators can manage the implementation of accounting standards more effectively.     

A theory of the transition to secondary market trading of IPOs

We develop a model in which investment banks and institutional investors collaborate in smoothing an initial public offering's (IPOs) transition to secondary market trading. Their intervention promotes welfare under the assumption that significant new information arrives in the market in the immediate aftermath of the IPO. Under this assumption, it is optimal to stage the offering and suboptimal to commit to selling shares at a uniform price. The optimal strategy yields an economic rationale for secondary market price stabilization for IPOs carried out via a well-coordinated network of repeat institutional investors.     

A critical realist image of the future Wendell Bell's contribution to the foundations of futures studies

Wendell Bell's contribution to the foundations of futures studies grows out of his concern that fashionable philosophies of the day could undermine the very idea of a respectable, viable futures studies discipline. As his concept of “image of the future” is an effort to counter the positivist intellectual constraints on futurology, so his support of “critical realism” is part of an effort to counter the equally questionable move towards “the nihilism and relativism of postmodernist post-positivism”. Both theoretically and philosophically, Bell aims to create and keep a balance, a middle ground between extremes, trying to stabilize the still volatile foundations of futures studies. His effort is one of a founder in the most robust sense of the term. In his endeavor, Bell went beyond the rhetoric of asserting the promise of a new discipline and advertising its merits. He invested into the less glamorous but crucial effort of building the epistemological and conceptual bases able to sustain an entire intellectual edifice.     

A constrained least square approach to the estimation of the term structure of interest rates

This paper proposes a new practical method for estimating forward rate curves using bond prices available in the market. It is intended to improve the least square estimation method proposed by Carleton and Cooper by imposing additional constraints to guarantee the smoothness of the forward rate curves. The resulting problem is a nonconvex minimization problem, for which we will propose an efficient algorithm for calculating an approximate optimal solution. Computational experiments show that this method can efficiently generate smooth forward rate curves without increasing the residual errors in terms of least square fitting. Also, we will compare this result with an alternative and more efficient constrained least absolute deviation method.     

A test of the widespread-point-shaving theory

We test whether corruption is widespread in NCAA basketball by examining scoring patterns in games involving suspected point shavers. If conspiracy occurs frequently, then we should find that strong favorites score fewer points and/or allow more points than expected. However, findings reveal that strong favorites, previously believed to be the most likely candidates to engage in point shaving, may instead be the least likely. We propose that a shift in coaching strategy late in blowout games explains the anomalous bet outcome distribution patterns previously identified in the NCAA basketball betting market.     

A bridge from ruin theory to credit risk

The structural model uses the firm-value process and the default threshold to obtain the implied credit spread. Merton’s (J Finance 29:449–470, 1974) credit spread is reported too small compared to the observed market spread. Zhou (J Bank Finance 25:2015–2040, 2001) proposes a jump-diffusion firm-value process and obtains a credit spread that is closer to the observed market spread. Going in a different direction, the reduced-form model uses the observed market credit spread to obtain the probability of default and the mean recovery rate. We use a jump-diffusion firm-value process and the observed credit spread to obtain the implied jump distribution. Therefore, the discrepancy in credit spreads between the structural model and the reduced-form model can be removed. From the market credit spread, we obtain the implied probability of default and the mean recovery rate. When the solvency-ratio process in credit risk and the surplus process in ruin theory both follow jump-diffusion processes, we show a bridge between ruin theory and credit risk so that results developed in ruin theory can be used to develop analogous results in credit risk. Specifically, when the jump is Logexponentially distributed, it results in a Beta distributed recovery rate that is close to market experience. For bonds of multiple seniorities, we obtain closed-form solutions of the mean and variance of the recovery rate. We prove that the defective renewal equation still holds, even if the jumps are possibly negative. Therefore, we can use ruin theory as a methodology for assessing credit ratings.      

A Critical Theory and Postmodernist approach to the teaching of accounting theory

This paper outlines my teaching philosophy for the Accounting Theory subject. A Critical Theory and Postmodernist approach is recommended, which makes full use of non-accounting “tangential” material [Boyce G. Critical accounting education: teaching and learning outside the circle. Critical Perspectives on Accounting 2004;15(4/5):565–86] and material from popular culture [Kell P. A teacher's tool kit: an introduction to social theory. In: Allen J, editor. Sociology of education: possibilities and practices. 3rd ed. Southbank, Melbourne: Social Science Press; 2004. p. 29–51 [chapter 2]; Nilan P. ‘Reality TV’? School students and popular culture. In: Allen J, editor. Sociology of education: possibilities and practices. 3rd ed. Southbank, Melbourne: Social Science Press; 2004. p. 306–21 [chapter 14]]. The paper discusses some classroom interactive activities, as well as interview results from interviews conducted with 11 international students and one Australian student at Charles Sturt University. The teaching approach proposed in this paper is to conduct classroom interactive activities which study theories and research results from a range of disciplines in order to illustrate key points that apply equally as much to accounting theories and the accounting research process, e.g. the Positive/Normative dichotomy. Classroom interactive activities are discussed in class using the “dialogical approach” to education recommended by Freire [Freire P. Pedagogy of the oppressed. London: Pelican; 1996], Kaidonis [Kaidonis MA. Teaching and learning critical accounting using media texts as reflexive devices: conditions for transformative action or reinforcing the status quo? Critical Perspectives on Accounting 2004;15(4/5):667–73], Boyce [Boyce G. Critical accounting education: teaching and learning outside the circle. Critical Perspectives on Accounting 2004;15(4/5):565–86], and Thomson [Thomson I, Bebbington J. It doesn’t matter what you teach? Critical Perspectives on Accounting 2004;15(4/5):609–28]. Once students gain experience in studying material from outside accounting, the interview results suggest that they are then better motivated [Wynder M. Creative management accountants: short case studies to promote creativity in the classroom. In: Paper presented at the Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand annual conference; 2006] and better equipped to study and evaluate accounting theories.     

A generalization of the collective theory of risk in regard to fluctuating basic-probabilities

Abstract

Generally in the theory of risk one starts from the two fundamental assumptions that the basic-probabilities are constant and that the deviations occurring may be interpreted as random fluctuations. Thus, the theory of risk appears as an application of the ordinary probability-theory, which starts from the binomial distribution and leads to the distributions of Poisson and Gauss.     

Wendell Bell and his contribution to the field of futures

In training to be a pilot one of the earliest lessons taught and repeated is that no matter what happens, the pilot must first and foremost fly the airplane. It can be bouncing in turbulence, slammed up or down in a thunderstorm, caught up in the vortex of a jumbo jet that has just taken off, radios gone, night dark and foreboding, but fly the airplane first, then solve the problem. This may be a metaphor that Wendell uses when he looks at life span and the prospects of death. He says (emphasis his) the first task of life is to live.     

A short remark on the theory of random sampling and the theory of variance

Abstract

In developing the theory of random sampling, no pressupposition is usually made as to the underlying limited population. This tends to render the theoretical work considerably more difficult; but then, in order to utilize the developed properties in tests, it is necessary to make certain limiting references to the theorem of limiting value, etc. It is, therefore, tempting to make requirements of distribution properties of the original population to avoid theoretical difficulties, and later try to expand the results obtained. The obvious course, then, is to seek the distribution of the estimate resulting from the random sample, on condition that the original limited population itself belongs to a distribution as the result of some process or other.     

A solution to an estimation problem involving models with rational expectations

Recently Flood and Garber (1980) have shown that the use of Fair's (1970) estimation technique in the context of a rational expectations errors in variables model yields inconsistent parameter estimates. In this paper we explain why this happens and suggest two consistent estimation procedures.     

A synthetic factor approach to the estimation of value-at-risk of a portfolio of interest rate swaps

In this paper we decompose the interest rate swap yield curves of 10 major currencies into their common factors and find that the first two factors, interpreted as parallel shift and rotation, explain between 97.1% and 98.6% of the variation in the interest rate swap rates across all 10 currencies. The main contribution of the paper however is that we then model these two factors as simplified synthetic factors so that they may be used to develop an innovative approach to the computation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of interest rate swaps.     

Cross-country differences in the contribution of future migration to old-age financing

As life expectancy increases and fertility declines, population aging puts pressure on the financing of welfare states in Europe and other developed countries. Given that immigrant workers are younger than the domestic population, a continuous flow of immigrants reduces the old-age dependency ratio and improves financing. Existing general equilibrium estimates of the public finance contribution of migration, performed with different models, are not comparable across countries and sometimes differ even in sign. We use the same overlapping-generations model with a detailed representation of institutions and labor market activity to provide comparable estimates of the impact of immigration on public finance in four European countries. We find that future projected immigration flows are equivalent to 14.3 % points labor income taxes in Austria, 7.3 points in Germany, 6.2 points in the UK and 1.7 points in Poland in 2060. These differences are due to the projected volume of immigration and institutional setups, among other factors. For comparable volumes of immigration, future flows have largest impact in Germany and smallest in the UK.     

Alternative approaches to the theory of the banking firm

During the past decade, the importance of a sound microeconomic foundation for aggregate economic analysis has been increasingly emphasized. In this context, a satisfactory theory of bank behaviour appears as an indispensable prerequisite for a clear understanding of the workings of the financial sector of the economy. This has led to the development of a substantial literature attempting to model and explain the behaviour of banking firms. This paper presents a survey and discussion of the various approaches which can be found in this literature. A special effort is made to present an integrated view of the real resource and financial aspect: of banking activities.     

A theory of risk disclosure

In this paper, we consider the price effects of risk disclosure. We develop a model in which investors are uncertain about the variance of a firm’s cash flows and the firm releases an imperfect signal regarding this variance. In our model, uncertainty over the riskiness of a firm’s cash flows leads to a variance uncertainty premium in its price. We demonstrate that risk disclosure decreases the firm’s cost of capital by reducing this premium and that the market response to risk disclosure is small when the expected level of risk is high. Moreover, we find that firms acquire and disclose more risk information when their cash flow risk is greater than expected. Finally, we demonstrate that in a multi-asset setting, only risk disclosure concerning systematic risks will impact the cost of capital.