实施稳健财政政策重在结构调整

我国财政政策从“积极”转到“稳健”三年来,宏观调控初见成效,但目前经济生活中存在的主要问题是收入差别明显、价格不均衡、财税政策的不完善和结构失衡。因此,2008年财政政策在总体“稳健”前提下更应注重结构调整,应加大政府转移支出的力度,优化经济结构;继续完善税制,促进经济增长;推进公共财政建设,关注民生问题。     

Global Implications of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU

In order to analyze successful strategies for economic policy in a global environment both international interdependencies and the strategic behavior of global players must be considered. We use a global model of the world economy (the MSG2 Model) to show the effects of dynamic policy optimization in the presence of various supply and demand shocks to different world regions. We show that fixed rules are generally superior for supply shocks, while demand shocks call for more active or discretionary policies.     

The Performance of Simple Fiscal Policy Rules in Monetary Union

The paper analyses the stabilising potential of simple fiscal policy rules for a small open economy in monetary union in a 2-region DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities. We consider simple fiscal instrument rules for government purchases, transfers, and consumption, labour and capital taxes in analogy to interest rate rules in monetary policy. The paper finds a dichotomy in the welfare effects of fiscal policy for liquidity-constrained and intertemporal optimising households, i.e. policies enhancing the welfare of one group tend to reduce the welfare of the other one. The moderate average welfare gains from optimal policy contrast with potentially large welfare losses from non-optimal policy. Fiscal rules that respond to employment fluctuations may be preferred to fiscal rules responding to indicators of price competitiveness, because optimal policy corresponds more closely to the idea of countercyclical stabilisation in the former case. The simulations also emphasise the crucial impact of the budgetary closure rule on the welfare consequences of fiscal business-cycle stabilisation.     

Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions and Markov‐switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992–2007. Our results show that fiscal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took place around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countercyclical in the pre‐1998 period, then switched to be passive and more countercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre‐1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiscal policy.     

Fiscal Stabilization Policy and Fiscal Institutions

In this paper we analyse counter-cyclical fiscal policy withinthe context of a microfounded analysis of business-cycle stabilization.We show that tax and spending instruments can have a usefulcounter-cyclical role, even after allowing for the distortionarynature of the instruments and the need for debt sustainability.A critical barrier to the use of fiscal instruments may be politicaleconomy concerns, and we survey recent suggestions involvingalternative fiscal policy institutions. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: c.b.leith{at}socsci.gla.ac.uk; s.wren-lewis{at}exeter.ac.uk     

Rethinking Fiscal Policy

The use of fiscal policy as a stabilization device has all butvanished, more or less explicitly in Europe and de facto inthe United States. The practical consequences have not beenentirely satisfactory, in either place. So it is important andtimely that the Oxford Review is devoting a special issue tothe macroeconomics of fiscal policy. In this paper I want todiscuss two underlying questions about the eclipse of fiscalpolicy. Why did this happen and was it a good idea? And if itwas not a good idea, then what follows? Footnotes ¹ E-mail address: jamu{at}mit.edu     

Financial Integration and Fiscal Policy

The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of financial integration on fiscal policy. Using an unbalanced panel of 31 OECD countries from 1970 to 2009, the paper shows that financial integration has significant disciplinary effects by reducing fiscal deficits and (discretionary) spending volatility. In addition, we find that financial integration affects the composition of government debt and enhances risk-sharing by increasing the share of foreign debt to the total. The results are robust to both de jure and de facto measures of financial integration, different measures of budget balance, and different estimation strategies.     

Bicameral Legislatures and Fiscal Policy

Early and modern scholars both presume that bicameral chambers limit the exploitation of minorities by the ruling majority similar to supermajority voting rules. We explain theoretically why bicameralism is a unique and desirable institution for protecting minority interests. The empirical analysis examines the structure of bicameralism in the American States. Using detailed data to proxy voter preferences, we find the degree of constituent homogeneity across chambers to be an important determinant of government expenditures for several budget components. Decreased constituent homogeneity tends to reduce redistributive spending and increase spending on public goods.     

The Interactions between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy

This paper studies the interactions of fiscal policy and monetarypolicy when they stabilize a single economy against shocks ina dynamic setting. If both policy-makers are benevolent, then,in our model, the best outcome is achieved when monetary policydoes nearly all of the stabilization. If the monetary authoritiesare benevolent, but the fiscal authority discounts the future,or aims for an excessive level of output, then a Nash equilibriumwill result in large welfare losses: after an inflation shockthere will be excessively tight monetary policy, excessive fiscalexpansion, and a rapid accumulation of public debt. However,if, in these circumstances, there is a regime of fiscal leadership,then the outcome will be very nearly as good as when both policy-makersare benevolent. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: t.kirsanova{at}exeter.ac.uk; jari.stehn{at}bnc.ox.ac.uk;david.vines{at}economics.oxford.ac.uk     

Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan

The effectiveness of fiscal policy in Japan over the past decade has been a matter of great controversy. We investigate the effectiveness of Japanese fiscal policy over the 1976–1999 period using a structural VAR analysis of real GDP, tax revenues, and public expenditures. We find that expansionary fiscal policy, whether in the form of tax cuts or of public works spending, had significant stimulative effects. Using a new method of computing policy multipliers from structural VARs, we calculate that the multiplier on tax cuts is about 25% higher at a four-year horizon than that on public works spending, though both are well in excess of one. A historical decomposition reveals that Japanese fiscal policy was contractionary over much of the 1990s, and a significant proportion of the variation in growth can be attributed to fiscal policy shocks; accordingly, most of the run-up in public debt is attributable to declining tax revenues due to the recession. Examining savings behavior directly, we find limited evidence of Ricardian effects, insufficient to offset the short-term effects of discretionary fiscal policy. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 536–558. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, and Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E62, E65, E21.     

Rules for Correcting External Imbalances

Three aspects to adjustment are sufficiently distinct to be treated separately. The first is the balance of payments concept that is to be adjusted. The candidates are the overall balance of payments, the “basic balance”, and the current account balance. The latter is the preferred concept; specifically, all countries should aim to keep their current balances within a range of +/− 3% of GDP. The second are the instruments to be used to adjust a payments imbalance. The basic analyses are due to Hume and Meade, for the cases in which the country respectively does not and does use variations in the exchange rate as an instrument to facilitate the adjustment process. The third relates to the question of whether the international community should build some mechanism, besides the threat of reserve depletion, that will encourage its members to pursue adjustment. Most deficit countries already have an incentive to adjust. In contrast, the incentives for surplus countries to adjust are weak and need strengthening, perhaps by permitting trade retaliation for an undervalued exchange rate through the WTO or perhaps by taxation. The United States are the most difficult case because the construction of a suitable incentive for this country would probably be dependent on reform of the reserve supply mechanism.     

稳健财政政策和货币政策下的政策工具选择

本文在对宏观经济模型与政策工具进行理论分析的基础上,回顾了1997年以来我国宏观经济政策的选择和政策变量的使用,认为1997年以来我国实施的积极的财政政策和货币政策属于扩张性的财政政策和货币政策,同时在分析了2003年以来我国经济运行状况及2004年加强宏观调控下我国经济运行状况的基础上,提出实施稳健财政政策和货币政策的必然性,并对稳健财政政策和货币政策的涵义及政策工具的选择提出了一些自己的设想。     

财政政策与货币政策的动态搭配和组合模式

基于经济周期的不同阶段,从IS-LM曲线和供求理论的双重视角解析利用财政政策与货币政策对宏观经济进行调控的内在机理,揭示两类政策搭配组合的理论逻辑,分析制约财政政策与货币政策调控效应的现实因素。研究发现,财政政策与货币政策的搭配组合要根据经济发展的不同阶段进行动态供给,以满足经济周期不同阶段的需求,如此方能实现经济的稳定增长。现阶段,我国应采取"更加积极的财政政策与稳健适度的货币政策"这一政策组合。产品市场与货币市场对利率的弱敏感性使政策刺激经济的效果受到制约,因而两类政策不仅要在总量层面"对冲"经济增速减缓的压力,而且要在结构层面增强协调性。     

Fiscal Deficits, Taylor Rules, and Price Dynamics

This paper reconsiders the issue of price level determination under interest rate feedback rules using an optimizing general equilibrium framework with overlapping generations and flexible prices. The analysis shows that under fiscal shocks, monetary policy commitment to instrument rules of the Taylor-type might be insufficient for inflation control. It is also demonstrated that the existence of a unique stable equilibrium path for the price level does not require active monetary rules.The author wishes to thank an anonymous referee, Barbara Annicchiarico, Giuseppe De Arcangelis, Giancarlo Marini, and Giorgio Rodano for useful comments and suggestions.The usual disclaimer applies.     

External Imbalances and Fiscal Fragility in the Euro Area

This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that countries in the South of the Eurozone were fiscally irresponsible and failed to implement pro-competitive supply side policies. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts cast doubt on the explanation based on the first thesis alone. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. However, differences in growth and competitiveness and capital flows between North and South have assumed a much more dominant role since the onset of the global crisis.     

The Macroeconomic Role of Fiscal Policy

This article examines the new consensus that fiscal policy shouldhave no macroeconomic role in ‘flexible inflation targeting’regimes. There is little basis for this presumption. Fiscalpolicy remains important in setting the policy mix and in managingshocks and imbalances. The credibility of an inflation-targetingregime should be enhanced rather than reduced if fiscal policyplays its proper role. It is true, nevertheless, that the costsof focusing fiscal policy narrowly on public-sector concernsmay not be very great, most of the time. However, when interestrates cannot be used, the role of fiscal policy must be different.With interest rates at their lower bound of zero, there is noplausible alternative. For asymmetric shocks and adjustmentsin EMU, fiscal policy needs, ideally, to substitute for theinterest-rate policy reaction function of the consensus, butthe difficulties are very great. We suggest a policy focus onreal exchange rates as a way of resolving some of the dilemmas.There is a serious danger that orthodox views about fiscal policy,drawn from the consensus, will be inappropriately applied, especiallyin Europe. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: christopher.allsopp{at}new.ox.ac.uk; david.vines{at}economics.oxford.ac.uk     

开放经济条件下财政政策有效性的研究

随着经济开放度的日益提高,外部经济的冲击加剧了国内外经济均衡的矛盾,不确定的外部影响因素越来越多,财政当局难以及时掌控这些因素的变化,财政政策的有效性明显降低,处于一种趋于减弱的状态。从短期看,财政政策是有效的,但长期来看,财政政策的有效性越来越小甚至呈中性特质。