International portfolio diversification benefits: Cross-country evidence from a local perspective

We investigate how the benefits of international portfolio diversification differ across countries from the perspective of a local investor. We find that the benefits of investing abroad are largest for investors in developing countries, including when controlling for currency effects. Most of the benefits are obtained from investing outside the region of the home country. These global diversification benefits remain large when controlling for short-sales constraints in developing stock markets. The gains from international portfolio diversification appear to be largest for countries with high country risk. In addition to this cross-sectional evidence, we also provide evidence that diversification benefits vary over time as country risk changes. We find that diversification benefits have decreased for most countries in our sample over the past two decades.     

Taste,information, and asset prices: implications for the valuation of CSR

Firms often undertake activities that do not necessarily increase cash flows (e.g., costly investments in corporate social responsibility or CSR), and some investors value these non cash activities (i.e., they have a “taste” for these activities). We develop a model to capture this phenomenon and focus on the asset-pricing implications of differences in investors’ tastes for firms’ activities and outputs. Our model shows that, first, investor taste differences provide a basis for investor clientele effects that are endogenously determined by the shares demanded by different types of investors. Second, because the market must clear at one price, investors’ demands are influenced by all dimensions of firm output even if their preferences are only over some dimensions. Third, information releases cause trading volume, even when all investors have the same information. Fourth, investor taste provides a rationale for corporate spin-offs that help firms better target their shareholder bases. Finally, individual social responsibility can lead to corporate social responsibility when managers care about stock price because price reacts to investments in CSR activities.     

Order price clustering,size clustering,and stock price movements: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Exchange

This paper examines order price clustering, size clustering, and stock price movements in an active emerging country’s equities market, the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). We first explore the relationships between investor types and order price/size clustering. Next, we investigate the joint determinants of the round-price and round-size orders based on daily and intraday data analyses. Finally, we look at the relationships among investor types, round prices/sizes, and stock price movements. The findings reveal that all investor types exhibit price and size clustering phenomena. After controlling for other factors, institutional investors have a relatively lower level of size clustering when compared with individuals. Our results confirm the price resolution hypothesis, whereby the levels of daily price and size clustering increase with firm risk, and the probability of a round-price or round-size order increases as transitory volatility rises. Partially consistent with the negotiation hypothesis, the probability of a round-price or round-size order increases when order competition turns fiercer. Mutual funds exhibit stronger quarter-end and session-end effects than do other investors. We also detect strategic trading behaviors, showing that the probability of an order with a tail price of one (nine) increases when buy (sell) order competition is fiercer. Lastly, stocks with mutual funds’ round-price or round-size buy (sell) orders experience rising (falling) future stock returns.     

How Do Different Types of Investors React to New Earnings Information?

Abstract:   The purpose of this study is to investigate how different types of investors react to new earnings information. Using the extremely comprehensive official register of share holdings in Finland, we find that the majority of investors are more likely to sell (buy) stocks in a company after a positive (negative) earnings surprise and that they are biased towards buying after the disclosure of an annual report. Large investors show behaviour opposite to that of the majority of investors. We consider several possible explanations for this heterogeneous investor behaviour, of which differences in investor overconfidence emerges as the strongest candidate.     

Investor attention,ETF returns,and country-specific factors

Using the data of 47 single-country exchange-traded funds (ETFs) traded in the U.S. from 36 countries during 2004–2017, this research examines the impact of investor attention proxied by Google Search Volume Index and home country-specific factors on different quantile of their returns. Evidence first shows that compared with U.S. investor attention, home country investor attention largely correlates with low to medium ETF returns, supporting the attention-induced price pressure hypothesis. Second, home country-specific factors significantly affect ETF returns at different conditional quantiles. We also find that investors prefer investing in a country with strong similarity to that of the U.S., supporting the cross-country information asymmetry hypothesis. Third, an intervening effect of home country-specific factors exists on the relationship between U.S. investor attention and ETF returns. These findings should help government authorities find appropriate strategies to attract foreign investment and upgrade the value of their capital market as well as provide a reference on efficiency for equity investors.     

When the Use of Positive Language Backfires: The Joint Effect of Tone,Readability, and Investor Sophistication on Earnings Judgments

Recent studies document that market participants react positively to the positive language sentiment or tone embedded in financial disclosures, and that investors’ reactions to negative news are more muted with poor disclosure readability. However, while language sentiment and readability co‐occur in practice, their joint effects remain largely unexplored. In an experiment with MBA students as participants, we investigate how the effect of language sentiment varies with readability and investor sophistication level. We find that language sentiment influences investors’ judgments when readability is low, but not when readability is high. Specifically, when readability is low, disclosures couched in positive language lead to higher earnings judgments for less sophisticated investors, but lower earnings judgments for more sophisticated investors. These findings show that the main effects of readability and language sentiment documented in prior studies have boundary effects, and may reverse when both variables are jointly considered along with investor sophistication.     

How can firms repair their reputations when they discover information technology control material weaknesses?

We examine the effects of information technology material weaknesses on a firm’s reputation by examining how management’s actions before and after disclosure influence investors’ trust in management and perceptions of investment risk. Specifically, we look at the influence of: 1) management taking responsibility for an information technology material weakness, and 2) replacing the CFO with someone with technology expertise. We find that management taking responsibility for a material weakness does not lead to increased trust in management before or after remediation. However, investors perceive more favorable market reactions to remediation when management had previously taken responsibility for the control weakness. Further, we find that replacing the CFO with someone who has technology expertise results in increases in investor trust and improvements in perceptions of investment risk after control weakness remediation. This suggests the importance of sending clear signals to investors that the company is hiring managers with appropriate technology expertise.     

Investor biases in Japan: Another pathology of Keiretsu

We examine how keiretsu-related institutional investors behave in the Japanese stock market relative to other investor categories for the period from 1985–1998. Based on the agency problem hypothesis for the general bias of institutional investors and the relational distance hypothesis for the unusual bias of keiretsu-affiliated money managers, this paper finds that keiretsu-affiliated money managers over-invest not only in large firms, but also in imprudent firms. The group affiliation of Japanese domestic money managers may drive their portfolio decisions towards financially weak group member firms at the expense of their client investors. Identifying the conditions for this rescue type of investment, we illustrate a rather weak corporate governance foundation of institutional money management in Japan.     

FOREIGN INVESTOR PARTICIPATION IN PRIVATIZATIONS: DOES THE INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT MATTER?

We examine the determinants of foreign investors' participation in the privatization process of developing countries. First, we estimate the probability that foreign investors target privatized firms in a given country. We show that a favorable legal environment where investor protection is higher enhances foreign investors' participation. Foreigners also prefer large, strategic firms from high‐growth economies and socially stable countries with low political risk. Second, we restrict our analysis to privatized firms that foreign investors actually choose and show that the stakes foreigners hold are larger if the firms are privatized by private sales as opposed to public offerings.     

Expectations,Behavior, and Stock Market Volatility

Stock market volatility is caused by investors’ expectations and behavior. To study the implication relationship, on the one hand, we present an investor’s expectation-forming and decision-making model to summarize the key features of individual behavior. We think the individual expectation is determined mainly by the number of differences between positive signals and negative signals in the information flow. The behavior is determined by both the expectations of investors around him (her) and the expected returns from a potential action. On the other hand, we simulate an investor community to verify if the model is able to replicate the related stylized facts. Mainly, three conclusions are drawn from the simulation: (1) A relationship of asymmetrical conditional dependence exists between expectation consistency and behavior consistency. (2) Market volatility is caused mainly by the difference between expectation consistency and behavior consistency. As the density of connections in the investor community network increases, the difference between them grows. (3) Influential investors have profound impacts on the formation of normal investors’ expectations and behavior. Thus influential investors play an important role in determining the degree of market volatility.     

Who Believes the Hype? An Experimental Examination of How Language Affects Investor Judgments

This paper investigates the effect of vivid language on investor judgments. Recent research finds that investor judgments are significantly influenced by disclosure tone (positive versus negative). Holding tone constant, we investigate investors’ reactions to vivid versus pallid information. Drawing on theories from psychology, we predict that investors will be sensitive to the differences between vivid and pallid language when the underlying information is preference inconsistent, but not when the information is preference consistent. Results of two experiments support our prediction. Vivid language significantly influences the judgment of investors who hold contrarian positions (i.e., short investors in a bull market and long investors in a bear market). Interestingly, vivid language has limited influence on the judgment of investors who hold positions consistent with the general tenor of the market. Our results provide evidence regarding when vividness matters and when it does not in financial contexts, thereby contributing to both psychology and a growing literature on disclosure tone in financial reporting. In addition, our results also speak to concerns raised by regulators and academics asserting that vivid language can inflate bubbles and incite panics.     

How prior realized outcomes affect portfolio decisions

Investors have been shown to have particular preferences when it comes to the characteristics of stock they hold in their portfolios, while prior gains and losses have been shown to impact on individuals’ economic decisions, both in an investment context and more widely. This paper is the first to investigate how prior gains and losses affect investors’ preferences for particular stock characteristics and so shape their portfolio compositions. Using a rich dataset combination from China, we conclude that prior realized outcomes play an important role in shaping portfolio composition through their impact on the characteristics of stocks that investors choose to hold. We find that positive prior realized outcomes encourage investors to select stocks with a variety of characteristics broadly consistent with higher risk taking (for example, higher betas and higher levels of idiosyncratic risk), though there are some differences across investor classes. While our empirical results are in line with what one would expect from the existing literature on the disposition and house money effects, we also consider other possible interpretations of the results.     

Pricing effects when competitors arrive: The case of discount certificates in Germany

This article investigates how overpricing of outstanding certificates, also called master certificates, changes when competing products that duplicate the features of master certificates are issued. I argue that competition effects may be reverted and overpricing may increase rather than decrease after competitors arrive, when retail investors fail to detect implications of credit risk differences on certificates’ values. Using difference-in-differences estimations on matched samples, I find that overpricing of master certificates decreases after the competing products have been issued, but only when the master issuer’s credit risk is lower than that of the duplicate issuer, while it increases when the credit risk difference is positive. These findings are robust to controlling for retail investors’ demand in various ways. Thus, the study indicates that retail investors’ failure to detect the value implications of issuers’ credit risk can undermine product competition.     

Do firms that wish to be acquired manage their earnings? Evidence from major European countries

In this paper, we examine whether findings on downward accrual-based earnings management for firms publicly ‘seeking a buyer’ from the US can be extrapolated outside of the US context, given that past research has indicated that the function of the Merger and Acquisition (M&A) markets is highly dependent on the degree of competition in a country. We test for the existence of earnings management (EM) around such events for firms listed in the largest European stock exchanges between 2000 and 2009, and get evidence that downward earnings management around ‘seeking buyer’ announcements more strongly holds for the country with the most competitive market for corporate control in our sample, that is the UK. We consider this finding indicative of the fact that a competitive M&A environment may induce earnings management-prone behavior. We further testify significantly positive abnormal returns around ‘seeking buyer’ announcements for firms from the UK, but limited such evidence for the other countries, a finding we also attribute to differences in competition and uneven split of benefits among bidders and targets in M&A markets. Finally, we find that EM positively affects abnormal returns around ‘seeking buyer’ announcements, indicating that market participants tend to compensate for upward EM, regardless of the degree of competition of the M&A market of a country.     

投资者法律保护、股权集中度与大股东行为

在不同的法系和国家中,对投资者的法律保护存在很大的差异。作为对投资者法律保护的替代,在投资者法律保护薄弱的国家,股权结构相对集中。为了保护投资者的利益,我国应该完善对投资者的法律保护,提高执法质量和会计质量,促进股权的适度集中,限制控制股东的掠夺行为。     

投资者关注会影响个体投资者的汇率预期吗?--基于银行代客结售汇数据的实证分析

为考察个体投资者汇率预期的非理性及形成机制,本文基于外汇市场异质主体理论和行为金融学观点,构建了包含投资者关注的个体投资者汇率预期形成模型,并采用远期和即期银行代客结汇售汇比作为个体投资者汇率预期的替代指标,进行了实证分析。结果表明,远期结售比受到前一期汇率变动和境内外利差的影响,而即期结售比受前一期汇率变动影响。进一步引入投资者关注,采用MS-FTP和MS-TVTP模型的实证研究表明,投资者关注对远期和即期结售比的影响是时变的。在人民币贬值阶段,投资者关注对结售比存在显著的负向冲击,会导致更大的结售汇逆差;而在人民币升值阶段,投资者关注对结售比则无显著影响。本文的结论表明,个体投资者汇率预期具有显著的非理性特征,符合动量原则和套息规则,同时还受到投资者关注的影响。央行在人民币处于持续贬值区间时,应通过汇率沟通作用于投资者关注,稳定汇率预期。     

The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Feedback Trading and Trading Frequency: Evidence from Taiwan Intraday Data

Abstract

Although extensive literature has suggested that investor sentiment may be one of the most important factors in explaining investor trading frequency and trading strategies, how individual investors are significantly influenced by sentiment remains underexplored. The feature of numerous individual investors in the Taiwan stock market provides an avenue to examine the relationship of investor sentiment to trading frequency and positive-feedback trading according to intraday data. Using a vector autoregression model to measure feedback trading in one-minute intervals, we find that trading frequency appears to increase in periods of rising market, suggesting that investor sentiment–driven trading increases market trading frequency without relying on past experiences to conduct trading behavior.     

Signaling firm value to active investors

Active investors provide risk-sharing and value-adding effort in form of advising, networking, monitoring, etc. This paper demonstrates a conflict between two key objectives for high-quality entrepreneurs: to elicit such investor effort and to signal the firm’s type by retaining shares. This conflict may give rise to stable (and economically meaningful) pooling equilibria for startup firms. More established firms, with access to multiple signals, can always realize both of these objectives but may still decide to forego investor effort if eliciting it would require them to deviate substantially from the cost-minimizing signal mix. In comparison with otherwise identical pure-exchange settings (with passive investors), we find that the potential for investors to be active always increases the signaling cost in case of noncontractible investor effort, whereas the effect is ambiguous if investor effort is contractible. At the same time, we identify conditions under which signaling is welfare-enhancing as it helps guide investors’ effort towards more promising ventures.     

Star Analysts,Overreaction, and Synchronicity: Evidence from China and the United States

This paper examines star analyst coverage, investor overreaction, and stock price synchronicity in the Chinese and US markets. In China, we find that star analyst coverage can induce investor overreaction, such that it is negatively correlated with price synchronicity. This overreaction effect is particularly pronounced for stocks with primarily individual investors. In contrast, in the United States, we find that star analyst coverage is positively related to synchronicity and is not significantly associated with investor overreaction. Our overall findings imply that the heterogeneous nature of investors in a market drives the association among star analyst coverage, overreaction, and stock price synchronicity.