Do input subsidy programs “crowd in” or “crowd out” commercial market development? Modeling fertilizer demand in a two‐channel marketing system

Many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers' agricultural productivity and food security. Prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers' commercial purchases. Using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in Zambia, we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous "crowding in" and "crowding out" effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales. Where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher (areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs), results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector, in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use. On the other hand, in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive, subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers. Empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers' fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries.     

Detecting the impact of the “Grain for Green” program on the mean annual vegetation cover in the Shaanxi province, China using SPOT-VGT NDVI data

In order to reduce the soil erosion rate on the Chinese Loess Plateau, the Chinese government launched in 1999 the “Grain for Green” program (GfG). The objective of this program was to increase the forest cover on steep slopes in the landscape by planting trees and sowing grasses on former cropland. The program was a massive investment by the Chinese government. By the end of 2005 the GfG-program was implemented in an area of 87,000 km² in which about 400–600 million trees were planted. At present it is not known to what extent this program was successful. This paper examines the effects of the GfG-program on the mean annual vegetation cover in the Shaanxi province. A decadal time series of SPOT VEGETATION imagery from 1998 till 2005 were used to calculate NDVI-values in four counties with different rainfall regimes. By means of a regression between preceding rainfall and NDVI-values the effects of rainfall variability were filtered out. A trend analysis of the corrected NDVI time series pointed out that the GfG-program resulted in a significant increase of the vegetation cover on farmland in the northern part of Shaanxi province. In the southern part of the province, which has a more humid climate and large areas of irrigation farmland no significant increase of the vegetation cover on farmland could be detected.     

Do U.S. citizens support government intervention in agriculture? Implications for the political economy of agricultural protection

The persistence of agricultural protectionism throughout the world is intriguing given the widely recognized benefits of free trade. The political economy literature over the last decades has considered groups’ interest, politicians’ preferences, and their interactions within domestic politics as the primary forces driving agricultural protection. Yet, a growing body of studies suggests that it would be judicious to weigh in consumers’ or taxpayers’ perspectives in deciphering the nature of agricultural protection. This study examines U.S. citizens’ preferences about government intervention in agriculture and trade. Results show that they are in strong support of agricultural protection and their perceptions of national food security, family farms, environmental sustainability, and multifunctionality of agriculture play a significant role in shaping their support/opposition toward government intervention. The conventional political economy literature theorizes that consumers or taxpayers would oppose public policies that increase their tax burden; however, in the case of the farm sector, they have little incentive to voice their objections given the costs of farm programs are spread across a large number of consumers and taxpayers. U.S. citizens’ support for government involvement in agriculture as reported in this and other prior studies does not lend support for such political economy explanation.     

Discipline,Governmentality and ‘Developmental Patrimonialism’: Insights from Rwanda's Pyrethrum Sector

An ongoing academic debate examines the implications of ‘developmental patrimonialism’ for African citizens. Rwanda is a key case study in this debate, with proponents of developmental patrimonialism and ‘party capitalism’ arguing that companies owned by the ruling party or the military play positive roles in economic development. This debate often focuses on macro‐level, elite politics. This paper instead uses a Foucauldian lens to examine the micro‐level politics of pyrethrum production in Rwanda, which is managed by a military‐owned company. The company utilizes incentive‐based governmental strategies, in line with state discourses, in addition to punitive, disciplinary regimes. The paper demonstrates that state agricultural strategies depend on multiple factors, including multi‐scale political tensions between the ruling party's desire for control and its discourse of ‘entrepreneurship’.     

Digital governance and the reconstruction of the Indian anti-poverty system

On a global scale, programmes of social protection for the poor are becoming increasingly computerised, and architectures of biometric recognition are being widely used in this respect. I research how these architectures, adopted in anti-poverty systems, structure ways to ‘see the state’ for citizens living in poverty. To do so I study India’s Public Distribution System (PDS) in Kerala, which is augmenting its main food security scheme with the computerised recognition of its users. In the government’s narrative, biometric technology is depicted as an optimal solution to the illicit diversion of PDS goods on the market. Nevertheless, according to the multiple narratives collected across the state, beneficiaries dispute this view in different ways because of the mixed effects of the new technology on their entitlements under the PDS. The government’s capability to reconstruct its image through digital innovation is thus found to be constrained by citizens’ perceptions derived from their encounters with the new technology of governance.     

Home‐grown food and the benefits of sharing: The “intergenerational pact” in postsocialist Moldova

The policy literature on postsocialist Europe tends to frame smallholders' practices of food self‐provisioning and sharing as driven by necessity and proposes land consolidation to increase productivity and efficiency. However, these practices generate nonfinancial benefits, which need to be accounted for. In this paper, I test the socio‐economic relevance of these practices in the Republic of Moldova, the country with the highest density of farming households in Europe and whose government has embraced the rural modernization agenda to integrate into the EU economic space. I carry out quantitative estimates using the household budget survey and complement the results with qualitative insights from an original smallholder survey. I find that food self‐provisioning and sharing are positively related to subjective well‐being and that there is an “intergenerational pact,” with home‐grown food flowing from late‐adulthood smallholders to urban‐based young families and the vulnerable elderly. A counterfactual analysis shows that poverty and inequality would be higher in the absence of donated food, especially in urban areas. The preservation of smallholder farming through widespread access to land could thus help fight poverty and provide social benefits vis‐à‐vis land consolidation.     

公民参与网络反腐的意愿及影响因素研究——基于武汉市调研数据的分析

文章运用Logistic回归模型,基于武汉市调研数据,从实践角度透视和思考公民参与网络反腐的意愿及影响因素。研究发现,大部分接受调研公民参与网络反腐的意愿较高;政府信任对公民参与网络反腐意愿的负向影响非常显著;年龄的负向影响比较显著;月收入的正向影响一般显著;性别、受教育程度和单位类别对其参与意愿的影响不显著。     

小型农田水利设施供给中的角色冲突及其管理

以角色理论为逻辑起点,对当前我国小型农田水利设施供给中存在于政府、村民委员会及村民三者之间的角色冲突现象进行分析。研究表明:因政府监督管理缺位、村民委员会自治性弱化和村民有效参与机制阙如导致小型农田水利设施供给过程中同时扮演双重角色的政府、村民委员会和村民都发生了日趋严重的角色间冲突。而有效解决角色间冲突的关键在于:加强政府监督管理,健全制约监督机制;完善法律法规,强化村民委员会的自治性;在信息对称的前提下,创新民主参与形式,拓宽民主参与渠道。     

A thriving coal mining city in crisis? The governance and spatial planning challenges at Witbank,South Africa

The city of Witbank in the eMalahleni Local Government, or municipality as it is referred to in South Africa, and its economy are experiencing rapid growth. The growth is largely as a result of coal mining and associated activities such as power generation and the metal industry, which attracts an inflow of migrants to the area. The paper discusses how a flourishing city such as Witbank, with its economy based on non-renewable resources, manages its vulnerabilities. This was researched against a background of eMalahleni being placed under Administration, because the local government failed to deliver basic services. An administrator was appointed to manage and monitor the financial affairs of the local government, by the second sphere of government, known as the Provincial Administration in South Africa. The results show that Witbank prioritised mineral wealth above social, agricultural and environmental concerns. While good governance is generally important for a growing city, Witbank appears to manage with a limited contribution from the local government as the wealthier citizens are able to provide for their immediate needs or move elsewhere. It was suggested that South Africa needs to have a more balanced perspective on the costs and benefits of mining and to develop a long term vision for mining areas, which includes plans for the community once the mineral reserves are depleted.     

走向社会管理的“杭州经验”

社会管理实质上是政府与公民对社会生活的合作管理。政府引导使各类组织有序参与,公民社会激活了多元社会主体。这是"杭州经验"的创新与精华。     

基于聚类分析的城市公园利用者行为特性及其管理对策——以上海市中山公园为例

城市公园是城市的重要组成部分,是调节城市生态环境的重要场所,也是城市居民休憩、娱乐和活动的重要开敞空间,因此分析城市公园设施的利用情况以及利用者的行为特性,对于城市公园的建设和管理有十分重要的意义。以上海市中山公园为例,通过对该公园利用情况的分析,了解到公园的利用者大多数为青年人和老年人,且利用者范围广,利用频率高,滞留时间也较长。同时运用数量化Ⅲ类和聚类分析方法,把城市公园利用者的行为特性分为郊游式利用型、日常利用型、临时利用型、约会利用型、幼儿同行利用型、健康注重型及非日常团体活动型7大类,分析了各类利用者行为特性的特点,为今后政府部门对公园的建设和管理提供一些新的思路。     

The Role of Political Institutions in the Resolution of Economic Crises: The Case of Argentina 2001–05

Many financial crises during the last decade have derived more directly from political than purely economic problems. When democratic institutions, government transparency, regulatory oversight or the rule of law break down, the likelihood that politicians will implement unsustainable economic policies rises. The economics literature analyses the role of poorly functioning government institutions in allowing a nation to slip into financial crisis. However, the literature on the effectiveness of post-crisis reforms focuses almost exclusively on whether the stated post-crisis policies are appropriate from an economic viewpoint. Oddly, that literature fails to examine the status of the underlying governmental deficiencies, assuming implicitly that they have been remedied. Because economic reforms are feasible only with wide political and social consensus, two important post-crisis issues are essential to the success of such reforms; namely, the political situation and politicians' management of economic policy. Political failures are particularly relevant to the Argentine financial crisis that began in December 2001. This paper identifies those political issues, which derived from an unstable political structure characterized by corruption and fragmented power between provinces and the federal government. Critically, the rule of law had been undermined in 1991. Interestingly, these same shortcomings still pervaded Argentina in 2004. The resultant lack of political consensus continues to delay implementation of the structural reforms necessary to return to sustainable economic growth. Social confidence in the government is low; the independence of the Supreme Court has been shattered; and the rule of law continues to be eroded, as the government tramples on the property rights of private firms and public debt-holders. Because it seems unlikely that Argentina can overcome its political deficiencies in the near future, its prospects for full economic recovery are limited, regardless of which economic reforms it implements.     

树立现代渔业意识引领增长方式转变

本文从摆脱短缺型发展模式的束缚、摒弃增产指标的考核价值、降低自然资源依赖度、纠正产业“异化”发展偏差这四个方面，对我国渔业发展模式进行了深刻反思。在此基础上，提出了坚持适应国家生态建设的需要、坚持资源环境可持续利用、坚持改善国民营养结构及消费安全、坚持保护渔民权益促进收入增长、坚持发展现代渔业促进渔区经济社会发展五项原则，从而树立了正确的渔业发展价值取向．并指出了用“三大”战略的指导思想引领渔业增长方式转变的政策建议．     

中国城乡一体土地市场制度变迁路径研究

研究目的:研究中国城乡一体土地市场制度变迁的方式及路径。研究方法:文献资料法,制度分析法,博弈分析法等。研究结果:制度变迁的初始阶段中央政府为"第一行动集团"推动制度变迁,成为制度的供给者;第二阶段地方政府发现潜在收益并转换角色变为"第一行动集团",第三阶段农民等非政府利益集团成为行动集团推动变迁。研究结论:中国城乡一体的土地市场制度变迁在初始阶段须由中央政府推动,并在政策法规的修订完善、改革征地制度、创新公共财税体系、制定城乡一体土地市场管理办法和规则等方面进行制度创新,以此全面启动和推动城乡一体土地市场制度变迁。     

Enhancing urban agriculture through participants’ satisfaction: The case of Seoul,Korea

South Korea has been lending a variety of official support to promote the urban agriculture (UA), especially after enacting Act on Development and Support of Urban Agriculture (Act of UA) in 2011. Under this policy, which aims at spreading the UA effectively in dense cities, in particular, the government categorizes spaces used for the UA into five types in accordance with their characteristics and has extended customized support. But it has never been explored if the Korean version of the UA has satisfied the participants and there exist any differences in the satisfaction level among participants of each spatial type.With a goal to explore the policy effectiveness, therefore, this research carried out interviews and surveys involving 808 citizens who have taken part in UA activities in 68 farmlands in South Korea's capital city of Seoul and then analyzed them with the ANOVA and the hierarchical regression analysis methods The results revealed statistically significant differences among the different UA types in terms of the respondents’ overall satisfaction, the current status of the UA operation, and policy measures that affect the satisfaction level as well as their effects. Overall, however, the participation of female citizens, the supply of physical facilities by public entities, and the increase in the time respondents were involved in UA and their cultivating areas turned out to positively affect their satisfaction level.     

Policy review of water reform in the Murray–Darling Basin,Australia: the “do's” and “do'nots”

The water reforms undertaken in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia since 2007 have been viewed as a model for other countries seeking to respond to water insecurity. Here, a policy review is provided of this water reform and whether it delivers on key environmental objectives in the 2007 Water Act (the Act). The evaluation includes a review of the 2012 Basin Plan, a key instrument of the Act, and complementary policies associated with the acquisition of water entitlements for the environment via direct (reverse tenders) and indirect (infrastructure subsidies) means. Using the objects of the Act as a benchmark, an evaluation is provided of the following: (i) planned reductions in irrigation water extractions in the 2012 Basin Plan; (ii) risks associated with the 2018 amendments to the Basin Plan that, collectively, allow for an increase in irrigation water extractions of some 22 per cent, relative to the sustainable diversion limits specified in the 2012 Basin Plan; (iii) Basin‐scale environmental outcomes achieved, as of the end of 2018; and (iv) economic effects of direct and indirect methods of acquiring water for the environment. Findings from the review generate the “Do's” and “Do Nots” of water reform for Australia, and possibly other countries, when managing the trade‐offs between water for irrigation and the environment.     

Risk Management for Grain Processors and “Copulas”

The importance of calibrating hedging strategies for processors has escalated primarily due to the sharply increased volatility of futures, product, and by‐product prices. The purpose of this paper is to analyze price risk‐management strategies for wheat flour milling using copula distributions. While the application is for flour milling, it has similarities with other processing industries which confront one or more ingredients, one or more outputs, and futures for one of the commodities and/or products. The paper develops utility maximizing models encompassing expected return and risk. Alternative scenarios are evaluated. First, the models were used to derive optimal hedge ratios, as well as various measures of risk and return under alternative scenarios, and hedge durations. The results indicated hedge ratios are typically less than 1. The hedge ratios for the Mean‐value‐at‐risk (M‐VaR)‐Copula model increased with greater durations. Second, the VaR for the M‐VaR‐Copula was in most cases less than the noncopula specifications. Thus, noncopula models may over state risk as represented by VaR.     

Information and consumer perception of the “organic” attribute in fresh fruits and vegetables

Using a double hurdle model on panel data from 3,200 Danish households (monthly observations for 2002–2007), we study the effects of health‐related media information on the demand for organic fruit and vegetables. We find that “negative” information about pesticides contained in conventional fruit and vegetables mainly influences the probability of a consumer entering the organic market, not the quantities consumed by households that are already active on the organic market. “Positive” information that links health and the consumption of organic food influences both steps of the decision process. Our dataset includes information about consumers’ media habits, which allows us to disentangle the direct effects of media information from the indirect effects of this information as it is disseminated through the population. Our results suggest that directly obtained information is the main type of information influencing consumers, while information loadings by dissemination through the population have almost no effect on consumption.     

Benefits and costs of impeding free trade: Revisiting British Columbia's restrictions on log exports

The government of British Columbia (BC) imposes restrictions on the export of logs from public and private forestlands, primarily to promote local processing and associated employment benefits. Most economists wholeheartedly oppose BC's export restrictions, arguing that BC's citizens are worse off as a result of the government's measures. In this paper, it is shown that, while free trade in logs might well maximise global wellbeing, it might not necessarily result in the greatest benefit to BC. Indeed, both economic theory and a follow-up numerical analysis indicate that some restrictions on the export of logs can lead to higher welfare for BC than free trade. Thus, log export restrictions could be economically efficient from a local perspective, but only if the transaction costs of obtaining necessary permits are not excessive.     

政府应急信息沟通的主要障碍及其应对原则

在应急信息沟通中,政府的"官本位"思想严重,公民的"主人翁"意识薄弱,导致应急信息沟通纵向传递失真;部门分割的行政体制和政出多门的管理模式导致应急信息沟通的横向交流失灵;系统不健全、通道不顺畅、管理不到位,导致应急信息沟通的反馈系统失衡。政府只有晓之以理,将沟通与管理有效结合;动之以情,将倾听与引导有效结合;持之以恒,将内容与技巧有机结合,才能促进应急信息沟通成效,提升突发事件应对水平。