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1.
This article revisits South African employment trends recorded since 1995. In particular, it investigates whether the job losses and gains recorded by the October Household Survey jobs in the mid-1990s reflect the reality. This is done by comparing the different official data sets, and by exploring alternative sources of information for three sectors that substantially influenced this trend, namely formal agriculture, mining, and community, social and personal services. Potential inconsistencies within the October Household data are assessed, particularly in relation to the distribution of employees across formal and informal sectors and the categorisation of unpaid family workers. The implications of possible changes to the employment trend from 1995-2006 are considered. This article finds that the evidence is strong enough to call into question published employment trends. According to the October Household Survey, formal employment fell by 1.4 million between 1995 and 1997. The OHS and Labour Force Survey shows that formal employment then grew by 1.9 million between 1997 and 2006. According to the revised figures presented in this paper, 73,000 to 530,000 formal jobs were lost between 1995 and 1997 and 1.4 million net new jobs were created between 1997 and 2006. It is therefore possible that the plummeting and "recovery" of employment in the 1990s were both considerably less dramatic than that reflected in the official statistics. Further research and investigation would be required to validate these trends.  相似文献   

2.
The high rate of unemployment in South Africa stands out in an otherwise vastly improved set of macroeconomic fundamentals compared with the situation in the early 1990s. One might be tempted to argue that by this single indicator alone, the government's macroeconomic policies have been a failure. This paper explains why jumping to such a conclusion would be a mistake. Annual time series data on total formal sector employment is constructed dating back to 1946. The relationship between economic growth and formal sector employment is then measured and changes in the employment coefficient over time are described. The employment coefficient was found to be relatively stable, with a long‐term average value of 0.5. It returned to this value after a short‐lived collapse in the mid‐1990s. It is concluded that the main reason for the persistently high and rising rates of unemployment in South Africa since the mid 1990s was the very large increase in the labour force and not a historically deficient growth or employment performance of the economy.  相似文献   

3.
South Africa's high unemployment and small informal economy has been attributed to barriers to entry in informal labour markets. We develop a general equilibrium model based on a typology of informal activities that captures formal/informal linkages in product and labour markets. Simulations reveal that trade liberalisation increases formal employment, hurts informal producers, and favours informal traders and may explain the dominance of traders instead of producers. Wage subsidies also raise employment but further heighten competition for informal producers. Cash transfers favour informal employment, albeit with a fiscal burden. Results confirm the role of formal/informal linkages and product markets in explaining policy outcomes.  相似文献   

4.
This study examines the linkages between the manufacturing and services sectors, and between each of them and the rest of the domestic economy, based on analysis of input-output tables and employment trends. This reveals that manufacturing is particularly important as a source of demand for the services sector as well as the rest of the economy through its strong backward linkages, which suggests that in this respect a decline in manufacturing could negatively affect future growth. Services are especially important in terms of employment creation, both direct and indirect.  相似文献   

5.
The literature on the union wage gap in South Africa is extensive, spanning a range of data sets and methodologies. There is, however, little consensus on the appropriate method to correct for the endogeneity of union membership or the size of the union wage gap. Furthermore, there are very few studies on the bargaining council wage premium in South Africa because of lack of data on the coverage of employees under these agreements. Our study, using 2005 Labour Force Survey data, firstly reconsiders the union wage gap controlling for both firm‐level and job characteristics. When correcting for the endogeneity of union status through a two‐stage selection model and including firm size, type of employment, and non‐wage benefits, we find a much lower union wage premium for African workers in the formal sector than premiums reported in some previous studies. Secondly, our study estimates bargaining council wage premiums for the private and public sectors. We find that extension procedures are present in both private and public bargaining council systems but that unions negotiate for additional gains for their members at the plant level. Furthermore, there is some evidence that unions negotiate for awards for their members in the private sector irrespective of bargaining council coverage.  相似文献   

6.
In this paper, we estimate the effect of the means tested South African Old Age Pension on labour supply amongst the elderly African subpopulation in South Africa. We find significant decreases in employment rates and labour supply. Those who remain employed beyond the pensionable age are more likely to work in jobs with flexible hours of work, and work even fewer hours than people in similar jobs who are not pension age‐eligible. Our results suggest that governments do need to consider the labour supply related incentives provided via its various welfare programmes.  相似文献   

7.
This paper investigates the gender difference in trade union membership among African men and women in South Africa. Using labour force survey data for 2001 and 2007, we show that at least two thirds of the gender gap is explained by differences in union‐related characteristics. When compared with gender differences in personal, household‐ and job‐related characteristics, disparities in job characteristics account for a larger proportion of the gender gap. These findings imply that women would have had higher unionisation rates than men if they possessed male endowments of union‐related characteristics, especially access to unionised jobs.  相似文献   

8.
9.
This paper shows that there has been a significant decline in the employment and labour force participation of persons with disabilities in South Africa over the 1998 through 2006 period. Disability is defined based on activity limitations. Data are from the October and the General Household Surveys. The paper also deals with the possible causes of the decline. While several causes can be invoked, preliminary evidence suggests that the rise of the Disability Grant programme might be responsible for a part of the decline. Recommendations are made for future research and data collection on disability and employment.  相似文献   

10.
This paper investigates domestic risk–return behaviour by focussing on the intertemporal relationship between the conditional domestic equity market premium, its conditional variance and its conditional covariance with the international equity market. The paper finds that the domestic equity market prices in both domestic and international diversification risk. The estimated daily price of domestic variance risk is 0.0279% (EAR: 7.28%) for every one unit of expected domestic variance. The estimated daily price of covariance risk is 0.0111% (EAR: 2.83%) for every unit of expected covariance risk. The representative domestic investor values domestic variance more than covariance risk. The variances of domestic and international equity returns are found to be time‐varying, as is the covariance between the two. Evidence is found that the Johannesburg Securities Exchange is not perfectly integrated with the world economy, in an absolute sense. The volatility spillover effect is observed to be both significant and positive. The standard Capital Asset Pricing Model misspecifies the return to domestic risk, biasing the risk–return coefficient upwards. Domestic investors are rewarded for holding internationally diversified portfolios, with an internationally diversified portfolio expected to have an additional daily return of 0.0238% (EAR: 6.29%) for the same level of risk as an entirely domestic equity portfolio.  相似文献   

11.
In this paper, we investigate female part‐time employment in South Africa. Using household survey data for South Africa from 1995 to 2004, we show that women are over‐represented in part‐time employment, and that the growth in part‐time work has been an important feature of the feminisation of the labour force. In contrast to many studies of part‐time work in other countries, however, we find evidence of a significant wage premium to female part‐time employment. The premium is also robust to fixed effects estimations using Labour Force Survey panel data from 2001 to 2004, where controlling for unobservable differences increases its size. The premium persists with different hourly thresholds defining part‐time employment and when we account for possible reporting errors in hours worked.  相似文献   

12.
This paper derives the econometric restrictions imposed by the Barro and Gordon model of dynamic time inconsistency on a bivariate time-series model of consumer price index (CPI) inflation and real gross domestic product (GDP), and tests these restrictions based on quarterly data for South Africa covering the period of January 1960-April 1999, i.e. for the pre-inflation targeting period. The results show that the data are consistent with the short- and long-run implications of the theory of time-consistent monetary policy. Moreover, when the model is used to forecast one-step-ahead inflation over the period of January 2001-February 2008, i.e. the period covering the starting point of the inflation-targeting regime until date, we, on average, obtain lower rates of inflation. The result tends to suggest that the South African Reserve Bank perhaps needs to manage the inflation-targeting framework better than it has done so far.  相似文献   

13.
The paper develops a Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (BVECM) of the South African economy for the period 1970:1‐2000:4 and forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short and long term interest rates, and the CPI. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts than a loose one. The out‐of‐sample‐forecast accuracy resulting from the BVECM is compared with those generated from the Classical variant of the VAR and VECM and the Bayesian VAR. The BVECM is found to produce the most accurate out of sample forecasts. It also correctly predicts the direction of change in the chosen macroeconomic indicators.  相似文献   

14.
This paper expands and augments the results of the paper by Jefferis and Thupayagale ) and tests the efficiency of the South African stock market with Wavelet and Markov Switching Regime analyses of selected shares and the a ALSI 40 data. The Wavelet analysis indicated that most of the individual share prices and the share index time series are mean reverting over the long run and follow a long memory process, offering evidence against weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH). The Markov model modelled the financial and prevalent economic conditions accurately and established the presence of patterns in the historic time series, providing additional support against the weak-form EMH.  相似文献   

15.
The level of youth unemployment in South Africa is much higher than in comparator countries. We investigate whether one of the reasons may be that the wages young people want or need are above those that they could reasonably expect to earn given their characteristics. Unlike previous work on the relationship between reservation wages and unemployment we differentiate between wages in different sizes of firms. Larger firms pay more and thus, even if reservation wages are similar to average predicted wages, they may be above the wages that young people could expect to earn in smaller firms. We find that this is the case.  相似文献   

16.
The traditional structure-conduct-performance framework makes the explicit prediction that market structure determines market conduct, performance and power. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate this prediction using the South African (SA) short-term auto insurance market. The empirical evidence shows that a link between market structure and market conduct, performance and/or power is not present. "Prices" and profits are not statistically significantly related to various sellers' concentration measure and do not follow any explicit trend over time. By construction, profits are directly related to "prices" and follow a cyclical trend, as observed in other countries. A secondary goal of this paper is to compare the findings for the US auto insurance market with the empirical evidence on the SA auto insurance market. While there are few similarities, there is an underwriting cycle in the SA auto insurance market such as is observed for the US auto insurance market.  相似文献   

17.
This study tests the theory that currency crises are associated with sudden large changes in the structure of foreign exchange market volatility. Due to increases in market uncertainty, crisis periods exhibit abnormally high levels of volatility. By studying short-term changes in volatility dynamics, it is possible to identify the start and end dates of crisis periods with a high degree of precision. We use the iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm to detect multiple shifts in the volatility of rand returns between January 1994 and March 2009. Dummy variables controlling for the detected shifts in variance are incorporated in a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling framework. The analysis indicates that previously identified crisis periods in the rand coincide with significant structural changes in market volatility.  相似文献   

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20.
This paper examines the impact of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) on labour force participation of people living with HIV/AIDS in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Cox Proportional Hazard Models with stratum effects for three medical clinics, and Accelerated Failure Time Models with individual specific unobserved shared effects (frailty), are estimated for transitions from inactivity to unemployment, and transitions from unemployment into employment, using a longitudinal data set. The findings of this study indicate that HAART leads to greater activity in the labour market, but there was not a strong effect on re-entry into employment.  相似文献   

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