Naturgefahrenmodellierung in internen Risikomodellen – Unverzichtbares Rüstzeug für Strategieentscheidungen des Managements der Zukunft

Management requires internal models, which will usually span a period of several years (such as five), for analysing the financial situation of the insurance company and supporting strategic value- and risk-based company management. Catastrophe risks play an important role in risk management as a substantial share of the company’s entire risk capital is committed to natural catastrophes. So the article aims to compare two approaches in modelling storm loss in the context of applicability in strategic management. Concretely modelling deductibles in storm insurance is shown using the mathematical statistical approach. A case study will analyse various strategies and their effects on the insurance company’s single and multi-year risk-return position using example data where risk is dominated by catastrophes in order to give a concrete idea for the use of multi-period internal models in the context of management.     

On irregular functionals of SDEs and the Euler scheme

We prove a sharp upper bound for the error $\mathbb {E}|g(X)-g(\hat{X})|^{p}We prove a sharp upper bound for the error in terms of moments of , where X and are random variables and the function g is a function of bounded variation. We apply the results to the approximation of a solution to a stochastic differential equation at time T by the Euler scheme, and show that the approximation of the payoff of the binary option has asymptotically sharp strong convergence rate 1/2. This has consequences for multilevel Monte Carlo methods. The author was supported by the Finnish Graduate School in Stochastics and Statistics, the Ellen and Artturi Nyyss?nen Foundation, and the Academy of Finland, project #110599.     

Association between environmental factors and equity market performance: evidence from a nonparametric frontier method

In this cross-sectional study, equity market performance is assessed in a multidimensional risk-adjusted return framework using a nonparametric procedure known as data envelopment analysis. Employing a censored regression procedure, the association between equity market performance and a set of variables that proxy market characteristics and the political and business environment in which the market operates is investigated. The paper contributes to the literature on the association between environmental factors and equity market performance by using a methodology not previously employed in such investigations. The results reveal that equity market performance may be positively related to the size of the market and friendliness of the business environment. Friendliness of the business environment is an objective measure of regulations conducive to business and their enforcement.     

The effect of benefits level on take-up rates: evidence from a natural experiment

This paper exploits a quasi-natural experiment to study the effect of social benefits level on take-up rates. We find that households who are eligible for double benefits (twins) have much higher take-up rate—up to double—as compared to a control group of households. Our estimated effect of benefits level is much higher relative to the standard cross section estimates. This finding is less exposed to a selection bias that might plague much of the previous research on the link between benefits level and take-up. It provides strong empirical support for the level of benefits as a key factor in determining take-up rates.     

The downside of formula apportionment: evidence on factor demand distortions

This paper investigates the impact of corporate taxes on the input factor choice of multi-jurisdictional entities (MJEs) under a formula apportionment (FA) regime. Our testing ground is the German local business tax that applies FA regulations with income apportionment according to the relative payroll share. Using unique data on the population of German firms, we find that MJEs distort their employment and payroll costs in favor of low-tax locations. On average, a 1-percentage-point-increase in the tax rate differential between an affiliate and foreign group members is found to lower the affiliate’s payroll to capital ratio by 1.9%.     

Status-Quo des Prozessmanagements deutscher Erstversicherungsunternehmen im Kontext der MaRisk (VA)

Since their legal force at the beginning of year 2009 within the scope of minimum requirements for risk management of German insurance companies (MaRisk (VA)), German insurers are discussing the following issues: The implementation of a risk strategy consistent with business strategy and the development of controlling instruments to manage risks resulting from this strategy. There is often undervalued the circumstance that due to MaRisk (VA) there is given an increased need for action concerning the organizational framework, especially process organisation. Each process material to a specific risk has to be identified, documented and permanently monitored. This survey shows that process management has a too small importance within the German insurance industry. These preconditions do not suffice to be compliant with the organizational framework of MaRisk (VA).     

Gendiagnostikgesetz und Versicherung: Anspruch und Wirklichkeit

With the new German Gene Diagnostic Act (Gendiagnostikgesetz) the legislator aims at improving the protection of insurance applicants by prohibiting private insurers from collecting and using genetic information. However, the analysis of the new provisions shows that the provisions pertaining to insurance neither provide a comprehensive protection against genetic discrimination of insurance applicants and insured nor do they protect their right of gene-informational self-determination. Cuts of insurance benefits of the insured in private health insurance as well as incoherent disclosure obligations for insurance applicants unconstitutionally limit the rights of affected people as compared to the time before the Gene Diagnostic Act came into force. In summary, the new Gene Diagnostic Act does not only fail to meet its claims and thus falls short of the expectations, but also, due to numerous unclear provisions, poses a series of grave problems for insurance applicants, privately insured and private insurers.     

Optimal tax policy and expected longevity: a mean and variance utility approach

This paper studies the normative problem of redistribution between agents who can influence their survival probability through private health spending, but who differ in their attitude towards the risks involved in the lotteries of life to be chosen. For that purpose, a two-period model is developed, where agents’ preferences on lotteries of life can be represented by a mean and variance utility function allowing, unlike the expected utility form, some sensitivity to what Allais (Econometrica 21(4), 503–546, 1953) calls the ‘dispersion of psychological values’. It is shown that if agents ignore the impact of health spending on the return of their savings, the decentralization of the first-best utilitarian optimum requires intergroup lump sum transfers and group-specific positive taxes on health spending. Under asymmetric information, a differentiated taxation across agents is still required, but subsidizing health spending may be optimal as a way to solve the incentive problem.     

A positive analysis of labor-market institutions and tax reforms

In this paper, we investigate the structure of the “Laffer curve” for taxes on labor and other factors of production, under different institutional frameworks of the labor market. Using a Cobb–Douglas production technology allows us to characterize important properties of the “Laffer curve” in terms of the wage share for a competitive labor market, the monopoly union model, the right-to-manage approach, the insider-dominated union, and efficient Nash bargains simultaneously. In this way, we are able to highlight the menu of factor tax systems, and thus of potential tax reforms available to a government, without perfect knowledge of the mechanism of the labor market. In particular, we show that the employment-maximizing tax system features a constant energy tax, while the energy mini-/maximizing tax system features a constant labor tax. We also illuminate to what extent these results must be modified if we either employ a CES production function, or if we allow for an endogenous reservation wage.     

Venture capital investment practices in Europe and the United States

This article focuses on the investment practices and contract behavior of venture capitalists in relation to their portfolio companies. Using a unique self-collected data set, we provide new evidence on the venture capital industry in Europe and the United States. Important differences are identified between the two, particularly with respect to the use of convertible securities, replacement of former management, stage financing, deal syndication, and duration of exit stage. The most striking difference involves the use of convertible securities, which are used far less often in Europe than in the United States. These differences suggest that European venture capitalists engage in less monitoring and thus adopt a more hands-off approach to their portfolio companies as compared to US venture capitalists.

Asset allocation and liquidity breakdowns: what if your broker does not answer the phone?

This paper analyzes the portfolio decision of an investor facing the threat of illiquidity. In a continuous-time setting, the efficiency loss due to illiquidity is addressed and quantified. For a logarithmic investor, we solve the portfolio problem explicitly. We show that the efficiency loss for a logarithmic investor with 30 years until the investment horizon is a significant 22.7% of current wealth if the illiquidity part of the model is calibrated to the Japanese data of the aftermath of WWII. For general utility functions, an explicit solution does not seem to be available. However, under a mild growth condition on the utility function, we show that the value function of a model in which only finitely many liquidity breakdowns can occur converges uniformly to the value function of a model with infinitely many breakdowns if the number of possible breakdowns goes to infinity. Furthermore, we show how the optimal security demands of the model with finitely many breakdowns can be used to approximate the solution of the model with infinitely many breakdowns. These results are illustrated for an investor with a power utility function.     

FDI determination and corporate tax competition in a volatile world

This paper investigates the impact of economic and political volatility on corporate tax rates on a large dataset of countries over the 1983–2003 period. Estimation of a dynamic tax rate equation supports the hypothesis that economic volatility negatively affects statutory corporate tax rates, while political volatility has no significant effect. In order to identify the channels through which volatility works, we estimate a structural model allowing for simultaneous determination of corporate tax rates and FDI inflows, and find that economic volatility affects the corporate tax setting process through its impact on FDI inflows.     

Pricing options under stochastic volatility: a power series approach

In this paper we present a new approach for solving the pricing equations (PDEs) of European call options for very general stochastic volatility models, including the Stein and Stein, the Hull and White, and the Heston models as particular cases. The main idea is to express the price in terms of a power series of the correlation parameter between the processes driving the dynamics of the price and of the volatility. The expansion is done around correlation zero and each term is identified via a probabilistic expression. It is shown that the power series converges with positive radius under some regularity conditions. Besides, we propose (as in Alós in Finance Stoch. 10:353–365, 2006) a further approximation to make the terms of the series easily computable and we estimate the error we commit. Finally we apply our methodology to some well-known financial models.      

The role of the corporate income tax as an automatic stabilizer

This paper analyses the effectiveness of the corporate income tax as an automatic stabilizer. It employs a unique firm-level data set of German manufacturers combining financial statements with firm-specific information about credit market restrictions. The results show that approximately 20 per cent of all firms report both positive taxable income and capital market restrictions. Taking account of the income tax rates and the size differences of the firms, we find that demand stabilization through the corporate income tax amounts to about 8 per cent of an initial shock to gross revenues. This stabilization effect varies over the business cycle and tends to increase during cyclical downturns.     

A stochastic control problem with delay arising in a pension fund model

This paper deals with the optimal control of a stochastic delay differential equation arising in the management of a pension fund with surplus. The problem is approached by the tool of a representation in infinite dimension. We show the equivalence between the one-dimensional delay problem and the associated infinite-dimensional problem without delay. Then we prove that the value function is continuous in this infinite-dimensional setting. These results represent a starting point for the investigation of the associated infinite-dimensional Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation in the viscosity sense and for approaching the problem by numerical algorithms. Also an example with complete solution of a simpler but similar problem is provided.     

Ursachen geschlechtsspezifischer Kostenunterschiede in der Privaten Krankenversicherung: Eine empirische Untersuchung unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Anforderungen des AGG

The new “Allgemeine Gleichbehandlungsgesetz” (General Equal Treatment Act) also influences the premium calculation of the German Private Health Insurance to antagonize gender discrimination in premiums. The higher premiums in the Private Health Insurance women pay are caused by higher expectation of life, by the risk of fertility, and by higher individual health-care costs for health services. We study how strong the gender influence in health-care costs of men and women are and if they are influenced by the factors mentioned above. We analyse if there is any gender discrimination in premium calculation in the Private Health Insurance. The results show that after eliminating the factors only a small reduction of premiums is found. We still find a cost difference between women and men. This difference can be explained by the different usage of health services but this depends less on the gender rather on individual psychosocial factors.     

Idiosyncratic consumption risk and predictability of the carry trade premium: Euro-Area evidence

The failure to empirically prove uncovered interest rate parity conditions seems to be related to the presence of risk premia on foreign currencies. Recent studies suggest that either consumption- or currency-return-based pricing factors explain the cross section of foreign currency portfolio returns. The contribution of this paper is twofold. It first shows that the return-based explanation applies to foreign currency portfolios built from the perspective of a Euro-Area investor. Second, the main results of this paper suggest that the decisive pricing factor, the so-called carry trade premium, mirrors business-cycle-related risks. Times of relatively large uninsured Euro-Area consumption growth risk are associated with an expected increase of the carry trade premium.     

Small-time ruin for a financial process modulated by a Harris recurrent Markov chain

We consider a nonstandard ruin problem where: (i) the increments of the process are heavy-tailed and Markov-dependent, modulated by a general Harris recurrent Markov chain; (ii) ruin occurs when a positive boundary is attained within a sufficiently small time. Our main result provides sharp asymptotics for the small-time probability of ruin, viz., P(sup? _{n≤δ u} S _n ≥u), where {S _n } denotes the discrete partial sums of the process and δ∈(0,1/μ), where μ is the mean drift. We apply our results to obtain risk estimates which quantify, e.g., repetitive operational risk losses or the extremal behavior for a GARCH(1,1) process.     

The critical price for the American put in an exponential Lévy model

This paper considers the behavior of the critical price for the American put in the exponential Lévy model when the underlying stock pays dividends at a continuous rate. We prove the continuity of the free boundary and give a characterization of the critical price at maturity, generalizing a recent result of S.Z. Levendorskiǐ (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 7:303–336, 2004).