OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY WITH THE STICKY INFORMATION MODEL OF PRICE ADJUSTMENT: INFLATION OR PRICE‐LEVEL TARGETING?

I investigate the optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework with the sticky information model of price adjustment. The model is solved for optimal policy, and welfare implications of three alternative monetary policy regimes under this optimal policy are compared when there is a cost‐push shock to the economy. These monetary policy regimes are the unconstrained policy, price‐level targeting and inflation targeting regimes. The results illustrate that optimal policy depends on the degree of price stickiness and the persistence of the shock. Inflation targeting emerges as the optimal policy if prices are flexible enough or the shock is persistent enough. However, the unconstrained policy or price‐level targeting might be preferable to inflation targeting if prices are not very flexible and the shock is not very persistent. The results also show that as prices become more flexible, the welfare loss usually gets bigger.     

Who Faces Higher Prices? An Empirical Analysis Based on Japanese Homescan Data

On the basis of household‐level scanner data (called homescan data) for Japan, we construct a household‐level price index and investigate the causes of price differences across households. We observe large price differentials across households, a result that is consistent with the previous research based on the data in the USA. However, the differences across age and income groups are small. In addition, we find that elderly people face higher prices than the younger ones, which is contrary to the results of the previous research. The most important determinant of the price level is the extent to which households rely on bargain sales; doubling purchases of goods at bargain sales decreases the price level by about 2%, while shopping frequency only has a limited effect on the price level.     

Sticky prices and moderate inflation

Recent evidence shows that there is great heterogeneity in the price setting frequency across sectors, and that those changing prices frequently do so even under low inflation. What happens to price setting strategies of sticky price goods under moderate inflation? We built a dataset of monthly newspaper and magazine prices for Colombia, for the period 1960–2005, an exceptional example of prolonged moderate inflation. Within this macroeconomic scenario, and the novel database, we study the frequency of price adjustment, the relative importance of time- and state-dependent theories, and their evolution as inflation declined from moderate rates to single digits.     

Sticky prices or rational inattention – What can we learn from sectoral price data?

This paper derives stylised facts on sectoral inflation dynamics and confronts these facts with two popular theoretical models of price setting. Based on sectoral price responses to macroeconomic shocks estimated from an approximate factor model, we find that the frequency of price changes explains a relevant share of the cross-sectional variation of the speed and size of responses. Moreover, there is little evidence that the volatility of sectoral inflation due to idiosyncratic shocks dampens the size and speed of the responses to macroeconomic shocks. These findings support a multi-sector model with sticky prices rather than a rational-inattention model. We derive the results from different modelling and sampling decisions proposed in the literature, and we find that the explanatory power of the frequency of price changes for the speed of response to a macroeconomic shock proves robust in the face of these decisions. Other results are sensitive with respect to the choice of the factor model and the treatment of outliers.     

Strategic delegation under quality competition

This paper examines strategic manipulations of incentive contracts in a model where firms compete in quality as well as in price. Compensation schemes for managers are based on a linear combination of profits and sales. For a given level of quality, a firm desires to reduce the manager's compensation when product sales increase; this serves as the firm's commitment to raise prices. Nevertheless, in general, a manager has a stronger incentive to produce goods of higher quality if he is compensated according to sales. Therefore, a compensation scheme that penalizes a manager when sales increase may result in products that are inferior to those of its rival. We show that, depending on the nature of quality, a positive weight on sales may be desirable when firms compete in quality and price. Welfare implications are also explored.     

Product Downsizing and Hidden Price Increases: Evidence from Japan's Deflationary Period

In this paper, we empirically examine the extent to which product downsizing occurred during the deflationary period in Japan, as well as the effects of product downsizing on prices and quantities sold. Using scanner data on prices and quantities for all products sold at about 200 supermarkets over the last 10 years, we find that about one third of product replacements were accompanied by a size/weight reduction. We also find that a 1‐percentage point larger size/weight reduction is associated with a 0.45‐percentage point larger price decline, resulting in an effective price increase. Finally, we show that the quantities sold decline with product downsizing, and that the responsiveness of the quantity sold to size/weight changes is almost the same as the price elasticity, indicating that consumers are as sensitive to size/weight changes as they are to price changes. Our results suggest that the Japanese consumer price index may be downwardly biased rather than upwardly biased.     

Life Cycle Price Trends and Product Replacement: Implications for the Measurement of Inflation

The paper explores the extent to which products follow systematic pricing patterns over their life cycle and the impact this has on the measurement of inflation. Using a large U.S. scanner data set on supermarket products and applying flexible regression methods, we find that on average prices decline as items age. This life cycle price change is often attributed to quality difference in the construction of CPI as items are replaced due to disappearance or during sample rotations. This introduces a systematic bias in the measurement of inflation. For our data we find that the life cycle bias leads to the underestimation of inflation by around 0.30 percentage points each year for the products examined.     

Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness

This paper attempts to reconcile the high estimates of price stickiness from macroeconomic estimates of a New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with the lower values obtained from surveys of firms’ pricing behaviour. This microeconomic evidence also suggests that the frequency with which firms adjust their prices varies across sectors. Building on the insights of Carvalho (2006), we present Monte Carlo evidence that suggests that in the presence of this heterogeneity estimates of the NKPC obtained using conventional methods, such as GMM, are likely to considerably overstate the degree of aggregate price stickiness. Furthermore, if roundabout production is a characteristic of the economy the NKPC will falsely suggest that a sizeable fraction of prices are indexed to past inflation. These problems arise because of a type of misspecification and a lack of suitable instruments.     

RIGID PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM U.S. SCANNER DATA

This article uses weekly scanner data from two small U.S. cities to characterize time and state dependence of grocers' pricing decisions. In these data, the probability of a nominal adjustment declines with the time since the last price change. A store's price for a particular product typically goes through several price changes in rapid succession before settling down. We also detect state dependence: The probability of a nominal adjustment is highest when a store's price substantially differs from the average of other stores' prices. However, extreme relative prices typically reflect the store's recent changes instead of changes in average prices.     

Real estate price and heterogeneous investment behavior in China

We study the dynamic link between real estate prices and firms' investment behaviors in China using a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model features heterogeneous production sectors in which private firms face discriminatory borrowing constraints while state-owned firms are not. Fitted to China's quarterly data from 2005Q3 to 2014Q4, the quantitative general equilibrium model enables us to identify the driving forces behind and the macroeconomic variables interacting with land price. It confirms the existence of the “collateral channel” in the private sector without bearing the potential endogeneity problems in empirical studies. More importantly, we identify a “crowding out” channel between private and state-owned firms caused by discriminatory financial constraints. The “crowding out” channel implies a negative relationship between real estate prices and the investment of state-owned firms, which has been documented in empirical research but short of explanation so far.     

房价对城市全要素生产率的影响机制研究——基于Tobit模型实证分析

基于2008—2016年全国35个大中型城市的面板数据,利用Tobit模型和投入导向型的数据包络分析(DEA)方法探究城市房屋销售价格对城市全要素生产率的影响。研究发现：在整体维度城市房价与城市生产率呈现先增加后减少的倒U型曲线,且城市的房价水平超过了“房住不炒”的最高临界值,房价上升的抑制效应显著。房价对于不同人口规模城市的生产率影响具有异质性,在人口规模达到特大城市时,房价与城市生产率呈现倒U型特征,人口规模达到超大城市后,房价与城市生产率倒U型特征消失。不同类型城市房价与城市生产率之间的倒U型关系和城市的异质性特征表明,我国大中型城市应进行房价的“一城一策”精细化调节,“房住不炒”的政策定位具有坚实理论依据和现实必然。     

PRICE SETTING PRACTICES IN GREECE: EVIDENCE FROM A SMALL‐SCALE FIRM‐LEVEL SURVEY

The paper documents the price setting practices followed by some 400 or so firms operating in Greece. Survey replies reveal a low percentage of firms changing prices with frequency higher than annual and staggering of price changes during the year. As to firms’ reactions to unexpected shocks, prices appear to adjust sluggishly to cost shocks with asymmetries in price adjustment across positive and negative shocks. Adjustments to increases in costs appear speedier than those to reductions in demand. The data confirm a result found for other countries: the existence of cross‐sectional variations in price setting strategies and in the extent to which prices are adjusted in reaction to unexpected shocks. The results suggest a positive association between, on the one hand, product market competition and, on the other hand, state‐dependent pricing, frequent price changes and the likelihood of a price adjustment following an adverse demand shock.     

An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price indices in Australia in frequency domain

The paper examines Granger-causality between the producers' and the consumers' price using Australian data within the frequency domain framework. For long run relation, the Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood approach to cointegration was utilized. The test is also supplemented by the Breitung and Candelon (2006) and Lemmens et al. (2008) method. The quarterly data for the study covers 1969q3 to 2010q4. The findings suggest that consumers' price Granger-causes producers' price at an intermediate level of frequencies reflecting medium-run cycles, whereas producers' price does not Granger-cause consumers' price at any level of frequencies. Our study shows that consumers' price is a leading indicator of producers' price. Given that producers' price is used in making various macroeconomic indicators in real terms, the findings should help the Australian policymakers to gain control over the factors that affect consumers' price. The major contribution of the paper is to demonstrate unidirectional causality from consumers' price to the producers' price. Specifically, results show that consumers' price in Australian may have a significant predictive content in how the producers' price evolve. Furthermore, the application of the Breitung and Candelon (2006) and Lemmens et al. (2008) methodology in testing the Granger-causality in frequency domain is also relatively new.     

Understanding Price Variation Across Stores and Supermarket Chains: Some Implications for CPI Aggregation Methods

The empirical literature on price indices consistently finds that aggregation methods have a considerable impact, particularly when scanner data are used. This paper outlines a novel approach to test for the homogeneity of goods and hence for the appropriateness of aggregation. A hedonic regression framework is used to test for item homogeneity across four supermarket chains and across stores within each of these supermarket chains. We find empirical support for the aggregation of prices across stores which belong to the same supermarket chain. Support was also found for the aggregation of prices across three of the four supermarket chains.     

The effects of macroeconomic factors on South African agriculture

Significant research efforts have been devoted to understanding the effects of macroeconomic factors on the agriculture sector. Analysing the sources of volatility in the industry is critical for designing appropriate policies to stabilize agricultural markets, reduce poverty and increase economic growth. Agriculture is a competitive sector with prices that are more flexible than those in nonagricultural sectors. This article uses annual data over the 1957–2004 period and a vector error-correction model in investigating the dynamic effects of exchange rates, money supply and other macroeconomic variables on the agricultural sector in South Africa. Overall, real exchange rates, interest rates, inflation and money supply (M3) shocks have significant and persistent impacts on agricultural output, prices received by farmers and farm input prices. M3 and interest rate shocks tend to put agriculture in a cost-price squeeze. Agricultural price movements are a source of macroeconomic instability in the country. Real exchange rate shocks shift relative prices in favour of agriculture in the long-run, thereby, boosting farm incomes and accelerating poverty reduction in the country.     

A dynamic model of price discrimination and inventory management at the Fulton Fish Market

We estimate a dynamic profit-maximization model of a fish wholesaler who can observe consumer characteristics, set individual prices, and thus engage in third-degree price discrimination. Simulated prices and quantities from the model exhibit the key features observed in a set of high quality transaction-level data on fish sales collected at the Fulton Fish Market. The model's predictions are then compared to the case in which the wholesaler must post a single price to all retailers. We find the added revenue the wholesaler receives from price discriminating to be small.     

Liquidity effects and habit formation in a sticky price model

This paper sets up a sticky price model with external habit formations. It shows that the cross-correlation between output and interest rates as well as prices match the data well when there is habit formation. Consumption as well as output display a hump-shaped response to a positive monetary shock when there is habit formation. The paper also shows that the sticky price model with Abel's (1990, 1999) external habit formation succeeds in generating liquidity effects.     

Should a central bank react to food inflation? Evidence from an estimated model for Chile

We examine whether food price shocks are a major source of macroeconomic fluctuations. We estimate a small open economy DSGE model using an alternative Taylor rule applied to Chilean data. The empirical evidence suggests that food inflation played a non-trivial role in shaping Chile's de facto monetary policy actions. Consistent with its commitment to price stability, the central bank increases the policy rate in reaction to food inflation. Despite an immediate monetary policy reaction to a food price shock, the policy rate gradually tapers off. This is due to a second-round effect on non-food inflation propagated by the food price shock. A main finding is that monetary policy that targets headline inflation is welfare improving.     

ICP 2005 Construction Prices: Are They Underestimated in Developing Countries?

Construction prices are lower in developing countries in ICP 2005, which has raised these countries' capital/output ratio in Penn World Tables 7 and 8 and affected growth analyses. We estimate the Colombia/U.S. price ratio for office and apartment buildings in 2005 as a test of the validity of the ICP 2005 methodology for estimating these prices. Our estimate of the Colombia/U.S. price ratio is almost twice the ICP 2005 estimate. We confirm the validity of our results by estimating the cost of constructing office and apartment buildings using 2005 prices for construction materials, equipment, and labor in both countries.     

MEASURING THE PRICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT OUTPUT

We construct a price index for the scientific R&D services industry, a significant producer of R&D in the United States. Unlike most previous R&D price indexes, our index is not based on input costs but rather on measures of R&D sales. Consequently, unlike input‐cost price indexes, our output‐based index is able to account for changes in productivity and markups in the scientific R&D services industry. We compute that scientific R&D services prices increased, on average, by 7.14 percent at an annual rate from 1987 to 2006. Using our index, we find that real revenues grew at an annual average rate of 2.85 percent. We then propose using our index, in combination with an input‐cost price index, to deflate total R&D nominal expenditures. We find that real total U.S. R&D expenditures grew at an average annual rate of 1.42 percent from 1987 to 2006.