铁路行包运量预测模型研究

铁路行包运量预测是以运输需求和内部供给为导向,综合考虑各种影响因素,对行包运量现状和发展的正确把握.探讨利用人工神经网络结合主成分分析的方法,建立铁路行包运量预测模型,解释并预测行包专列开行后铁路行包运量的增长趋势.实例分析的仿真结果表明,采用主成分分析法的广义回归神经网络模型结构简洁、预测精度高、收敛速度快,对相关铁路部门和企业的决策具有参考意义.     

成都车站行包运输现状分析与改善措施

成都车站2002年行包运量锐减，主要原因是运价高于其他运输方式，并且由于包租车、行包专列运价可以下浮，对车站的行包运量也有重大影响。为此，车站应努力改善服务，并争取下浮运价政策，以扩大行包货源，提高竞争力。     

铁路行包快件运输市场开发初探

分析铁路行包运输市场现状和运输组织存在的问题,以及铁路行包快件运输市场需求。提出铁路企业提高行包运输市场适应性,应重点发展快捷化运输、专业化快件运输、集中化行包运输,加快快速客运网建设,重视短途快件运输,融入现代物流业的发展。     

基于PLS的铁路行包运量预测模型研究

在阐述基于偏最小二乘回归法(PLS)的建模原理与求解方法的基础上,通过对铁路行包运量影响因素的分析,利用2004年有关生产统计数据及影响因素的统计数据,建立了铁路行包运量预测PLS回归模型。实证结果表明:所建立的预测模型精度基本符合实际要求。该模型已应用于铁路行包运输“十一五”发展规划编制工作中。     

铁路车站行包运输现状及改善对策

针对福州车站旅客发送量和客运票款收入提高,行包运量却逐年减少的现象,对铁路行包运输状况进行了调查分析,收费高、手续繁琐和失窃严重是造成铁路行包运量流失的主要原因。对此,提出了建立全国性行包运输公司和行包信息联网系统,改革现有规章,实行行包代理制,重点打击偷盗现象等措施建议。     

应用改进重力模型法预测铁路行包OD运量的研究

对铁路行包OD运量的预测提出一种基于重力模型的改进方法。针对不完整的OD调查数据,运用综合阻抗的概念,首先在样本值的范围内进行模型标定,然后扩大样本值,运用标定好的重力模型重新预测并调整,最后得到完整的OD数据。实证结果表明,采用改进的重力模型比传统的重力模型预测结果更接近实际,可用于铁路行包运输OD运量预测。     

中铁快运配送系统设计与实现

随着电子商务的发展,小件货物运量的增多,给铁路行包运输带来更多机遇和挑战。针对铁路行包信息系统业务链条不完整的问题,为提高铁路行包运输配送业务的效率和服务质量,缩短竞争差距,满足铁路行包运输配送业务的需求,在分析基于电子围栏的中铁快运配送区域划分的基础上,采用Android、JAVA EE、位置服务等技术,对中铁快运配送系统进行设计,主要包括移动终端和管理平台,司机利用移动终端完成配送任务,管理人员通过管理平台实现对配送任务的监控和高效管理。经过实际使用,该配送系统取得较好的应用效果,更好地实现了中铁快运的配送业务。     

铁路行包运输安全管理及发展方向研究

2003年以来,铁路行包发送量及运输收入实现稳步增长,取得了突出的成绩.按照"高标准、讲科学、不懈怠"的工作要求,通过分析铁路行包运输安全面临的严峻形势,提出建立健全安全管理的长效机制;提高行包运输服务水平,树立铁路企业形象;按照<中长期铁路网规划>展示的宏伟蓝图,改革铁路行包运输发展方式,大力促进铁路行包运输向现代物流发展,全力确保行包运输持续稳定安全.     

智能铁路运输平行系统体系研究

2010年全国铁路旅客发送量完成167609万人·次,货运总发送量(含行包运量)完成364271万吨,全国铁路营业里程达到9.1万公里,机车拥有量19431台,客车拥有量52130辆,货车拥有量622284辆。可以看出,铁路作为我国中长距离、快捷、安全、低耗和环保的运输方式,对于我国社会和经济活动的发展发挥着不可取代的重要作用。     

加快发展铁路行包大列运输的思考

目前高附加值快运货物的运输需求发展较快,而铁路行包大列产品在运输能力、服务水平上还存在差距,尚不能完全满足社会需求.在综述国外行包运输产品的基础上,分析我国铁路行包大列运输现状,提出加快完善网络节点布局、扩大行包大列运输能力、提高行包大列运行速度、规范货物装载、加强客户服务、完善产品形式等建议,以促进行包运输高质快速发展.     

铁路行包快运节点等级划分及布局方法研究

铁路行包快运节点的等级划分是其布局优化的基础，针对目前节点等级划分大多依靠经验而不够客观的问题，采用重要度计算和聚类分析的方法，对全国行包快运节点的等级进行划分，并在此基础上给出节点布局的方法和建议。     

Opportunities to improve container barge handling in the port of Rotterdam from a transport network perspective

This paper presents and evaluates an opportunity to improve the competitiveness of container barge transport in the hinterland of Rotterdam through a reorganization of container barge services. This reorganization improves the handling of barges in the port and consists of splitting existing services into a trunk line operation in the hinterland and collection/distribution operations in the seaport. A marginal cost model is used to demonstrate the potential net benefits of these revised services. The main conclusion is that these split services can improve the competitiveness of barge hinterland transport, but the effectiveness depends on several conditions. These conditions are first of all related to the design and organization of collection and distribution transport, but also to the characteristics of the trunk line operation in the hinterland.     

Assessing performance variability of ground handlers to comply with airport quality standards

The increasing competition in the air transport industry continuously pushes ground handlers to improve their performance. Recent European regulations prescribe that the managing body of large European airports (more than 5,000,000 passengers/year or 100,000 tonnes/year of freight) have to define quality standards of service level for ground handler operations. In case a handler fails to meet these minimum requirements, the airport has to report it these irregularities, potentially imposing a fine or even suspending, partly or fully, the handler’s services. As always recognized by the passengers, one of the most critical quality standards is the baggage handling waiting time. This paper defines a methodology to assess whether the handler fits the requirements of first baggage delivery for both the overall process and the specific segments (flight, conveyor belt, departing airport, day of the week, etc.). The methodology, analysing the performance by a two-dimensional perspective (structure and frequency), will help the decision makers in defining mitigating actions to take the performance under statistical control, respecting the requirements and preventing any drift.     

Defining airline compatible luggage

The airline and luggage industries hold widely different views about which party should bear responsibility for checked luggage (baggage) damaged during transport. The problem is compounded by the fact that there currently is no uniformly accepted definition of or standards for airline compatible luggage. While much attention has been given to the carry-on baggage issue, many feel that the problems surrounding checked baggage are at the heart of the matter. This case study outlines the attempts of both industries to address the issue of performance standards for airline compatible luggage.     

中国铁路货运市场占有率发展趋势分析

分析中国铁路货运的发展形势,建立关于铁路、公路货运量在全社会货运量中所占市场份额的差分方程组模型,运算后得出铁路货运在整个货运市场中的占有率趋向。通过利用历史统计数据计算,得到铁路货运市场占有率的一个数值解。     

Transport corridors and regional balance in China: the case of coal trade and logistics

Coal plays a vital role in the socio-economic development of China. Yet, the spatial mismatch between production centers (inland Northwest) and consumption centers (coastal region) within China fostered the emergence of dedicated coal transport corridors with limited alternatives. Serious problems of energy shortage and power rationing have already affected southeastern China. At the same time, enormous interregional coal transfers face a lack of transport capacity along the transport system. Based on first-hand statistics, a disaggregated analysis of coal distribution patterns since the late 1970s provides novel evidences about the local effects of macroscopic trends, such as the shift from dominant exports to dominant imports in terms of changing traffic concentration levels and distribution patterns among routes and ports. The spatial evolution of coal distribution is also discussed in terms of related industry linkages and local influences, coal trade policies and market pricing, port system evolution, and transport network planning. The paper also discusses possible improvements of the current situation through enhancing multimodal transport based on a review of current policies.     

Optimal assignment of airport baggage unloading zones to outgoing flights

The outbound airport baggage handling system (BHS) consists of a set of unloading zones (chutes) which are assigned to outgoing flights. Airport baggage operations have inherent uncertainties such as flight delays and varying number of bags. In this paper, the chute assignment problem is modeled as a Stochastic Vector Assignment Problem (SVAP) and multiple extensions are presented to incorporate the various design needs of the airport. A real airport outbound BHS is presented. This case study also guided the optimization models’ design process. The performance of the optimization models is compared with the methods used in practice and literature.     

铁路客运专线运量、运价和收入关系分析

在论述系统动力学模型的基础上,运用其原理和方法建立了运量模型、转移运量模型、诱发运量模型和运价模型。通过模拟客运专线算例,进行了运量结果分析、运价结果分析、收入分析、运量与运价关系分析,通过定性和定量分析,论述了铁路客运专线运量、运价和收入三者之间的关系,以及相互影响因素的变化情况。